Valentin Bolotnyy

All Publications

• Understanding the migratory response to hurricanes and tropical storms in the USA. Nature human behaviour Behrer, A. P., Bolotnyy, V. 2025

  Abstract

  The adverse effects of climate change will be worse in some locations than in others, raising the possibility that migration from more severely impacted areas to less impacted areas will reduce future damages. Assessing whether such migration is already occurring can inform our understanding of future responses to climate change. Using data on the paths of all Atlantic basin hurricanes and tropical storms from 1992 to 2017, we study whether outmigration from US counties increases after a storm. On average, storms are not followed by outmigration, and total population-weighted exposure to storms increases over the sample period. Very destructive storms are followed by outmigration, though often to other high-risk counties. Counties with high economic activity see net in-migration after a storm. Given existing policies and incentives, the economic and social benefits of high-risk areas currently appear to outweigh the incentive to reduce exposure to future storms by relocating across counties.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41562-025-02281-8

  View details for PubMedID 41053226

  View details for PubMedCentralID 4103331

• Obstetrician and Gynecologist Physicians' Practice Locations Before and After the Dobbs Decision. JAMA network open Staiger, B., Bolotnyy, V., Borrero, S., Rossin-Slater, M., Van Parys, J., Myers, C. 2025; 8 (4): e251608

  Abstract

  State abortion policies may influence the practice locations of obstetricians and gynecologists (OBGYNs), having potentially significant implications for access to and quality of reproductive health care.To explore changes in OBGYN practice locations from before to after the Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization US Supreme Court decision in June 2022.National Plan & Provider Enumeration System data files were used in a descriptive cohort study assessing the association between state abortion policy environments and OBGYN practice locations in the US from January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2024, for all OBGYNs listed in the data files during the study period.The number of OBGYNs practicing in states with differing abortion laws and the movement of OBGYNs between these states before and after the Dobbs decision.The sample included 60 085 OBGYNs (59.7% women), of whom 3.8% were maternal-fetal medicine specialists and 12.9% were recent residency graduates. The mean increase in the per-quarter number of OBGYNs from before to after Dobbs was 8.3% (95% CI, 6.6%-10.1%) in states with total abortion bans, 10.5% (95% CI, 8.1%-13.0%) in states with gestational age limits or threatened bans, and 7.7% (95% CI, 5.9%-9.4%) in states with abortion protections. From the quarter immediately before Dobbs to the end of the study period, 95.8% of OBGYNs remained in protected states, 94.8% (95% CI, 94.3%-95.2%) remained in states threatening bans, and 94.2% (95% CI, 93.7%-94.7%) remained in states with abortion bans.In this descriptive cohort study, there were no significant differences in trends in OBGYNs' practice locations across states with different abortion-related policy environments after the Dobbs decision. Although these findings do not provide insight into changes in the quality of care provided, they suggest that there are no major changes in the supply of OBGYNs associated with the Dobbs decision.

  View details for DOI 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.1608

  View details for PubMedID 40257800

• Scaling Dialogue for Democracy: Can Automated Deliberation Create More Deliberative Voters? PERSPECTIVES ON POLITICS Fishkin, J., Bolotnyy, V., Lerner, J., Siu, A., Bradburn, N. 2025

  View details for DOI 10.1017/S1537592724001749

  View details for Web of Science ID 001389584500001

• Heat and law enforcement. PNAS nexus Behrer, A. P., Bolotnyy, V. 2024; 3 (5): pgad425

  Abstract

  Using administrative criminal records from Texas, we show how high temperatures affect the decision-making of police officers, prosecutors, and judges. We find that police reduce the number of arrests made per reported crime on the hottest days and that arrests made on these days are more likely to be dismissed in court. For prosecutors, high temperature on the day they announce criminal charges does not appear to affect the nature and severity of the charges. Judges, however, dismiss fewer cases, issue longer prison sentences, and levy higher fines when ruling on hot days. Our results suggest that the psychological and cognitive consequences of exposure to high temperatures have meaningful consequences for criminal defendants as they interact with the criminal justice system.

  View details for DOI 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad425

  View details for PubMedID 38745568

• Can Deliberation Have Lasting Effects? AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW Fishkin, J., Bolotnyy, V., Lerner, J., Siu, A., Bradburn, N. 2024

  View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055423001363

  View details for Web of Science ID 001156597400001

• Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement ECONOMETRICA Bolotnyy, V., Vasserman, S. 2023; 91 (4): 1205-1259

  View details for DOI 10.3982/ECTA17673

  View details for Web of Science ID 001041297000002

• Immigrant intergenerational mobility: A focus on childhood environment EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW Bratu, C., Bolotnyy, V. 2023; 151

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104353

  View details for Web of Science ID 000906699200001

• Graduate Student Mental Health: Lessons from American Economics Departments dagger JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE Bolotnyy, V. N., Basilico, M. W., Barreira, P. L. 2022; 60 (4): 1188-1222

  View details for DOI 10.1257/jel.20201555

  View details for Web of Science ID 000931998400002

• A blueprint for measuring and improving graduate student mental health. Journal of American college health : J of ACH Barreira, P., Bolotnyy, V. 2022: 1-7

  Abstract

  OBJECTIVE: We provide a step-by-step guide for developing, administering, evaluating, and acting on a survey-based study of graduate student mental health.METHODS: Blueprint focuses on forging student-faculty collaboration and is based on Harvard University's Graduate Student Mental Health Initiative (GSMHI). The survey tool we use includes validated screening instruments for depression, anxiety, imposter phenomenon, self-esteem, alcohol consumption, exercise and sleep habits, and loneliness. It also includes environmental questions that collect epidemiologic data, as well as ratings of advising relationships and student dynamics.RESULTS: After 6years, GSMHI has analyzed data from 30 different PhD programs and 4,866 students, overseen the implementation of more than 60 departmental action plans, and performed 9 follow-up surveys to assess progress. It has achieved high response rates (60-90%), discovered wide variation in mental health and environmental factors across departments, and supported experiments with interventions.CONCLUSION: We hope this blueprint helps other universities run similar initiatives.

  View details for DOI 10.1080/07448481.2022.2057804

  View details for PubMedID 35380928

• Why Do Women Earn Less than Men? Evidence from Bus and Train Operators JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS Bolotnyy, V., Emanuel, N. 2022

  View details for DOI 10.1086/715835

  View details for Web of Science ID 000760736400001

• The federal funds network and monetary policy transmission: Evidence from the 2007-2009 financial crisis JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS Beltran, D. O., Bolotnyy, V., Klee, E. 2021; 117

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.12.006

  View details for Web of Science ID 000618732000010

• The Government-Sponsored Enterprises and the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Affordable Housing Goals Real Estate Economics Bolotnyy, V. 2014; 42: 724-755

  View details for DOI 10.1111/1540-6229.12031