Honors & Awards
Editors’ Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, AGU (2014)
Award for young scientists, GtV-Bundesverband Geothermie (2010)
Doctor Rerum Naturium, Freie Universitat Berlin (2014)
Diplom, Freie Universitat Berlin (2008)
Mark Zoback, Postdoctoral Faculty Sponsor
Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas.
2018; 9 (1): 3946
Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, triggered thousands of widely felt and several damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas. The future seismic hazard remains uncertain. Here, we present a new methodology to forecast the probability of damaging induced earthquakes in space and time. In our hybrid physical-statistical model, seismicity is driven by the rate of injection-induced pressure increases at any given location and spatial variations in the number and stress state of preexisting basement faults affected by the pressure increase. If current injection practices continue, earthquake hazards are expected to decrease slowly. Approximately 190, 130 and 100 widely felt M≥3 earthquakes are anticipated in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, with corresponding probabilities of potentially damaging M≥5 earthquakes of 32, 24 and 19%. We identify areas where produced-water injection is more likely to cause seismicity. Our methodology can be used to evaluate future injection scenarios intended to mitigate seismic hazards.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-06167-4
View details for PubMedID 30258058
Response to Comment on “How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates
Goebel et al. question our forecasted response of induced seismicity to reduction of saltwater injection rates in north-central Oklahoma and raise the concern that "the probability of future damaging earthquakes may be underestimated." We compare our prediction to earthquake data recorded in the 8 months after publication. Observed seismicity rates and magnitudes agree with the forecast of our model. Our use of a probabilistic model accounts for uncertainties and observed M ≥ 4.5 to date confirm the conservative nature of our prediction. The "realistic parameter range" suggested by Goebel et al. is based on a misunderstanding of our statistical model and disagrees with the long-term decay of seismicity in the region.
View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aao2277
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC5555253
How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?
2016; 2 (11)
In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas.
View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.1601542
View details for PubMedID 28138533
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC5262442
- A statistical model for seismic hazard assessment of hydraulic-fracturing-induced seismicity GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2015; 42 (24)
- Quantitative analysis of rock stress heterogeneity: Implications for the seismogenesis of fluid-injection-induced seismicity GEOPHYSICS 2015; 80 (6): WC73-WC88
- Gutenberg-Richter relation originates from Coulomb stress fluctuations caused by elastic rock heterogeneity JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH 2014; 119 (2): 1220-1234
- Probability of earthquake occurrence and magnitude estimation in the post shut-in phase of geothermal projects JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY 2013; 17 (1): 5-11
- Inter event times of fluid induced earthquakes suggest their Poisson nature GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2011; 38
- Magnitude estimation for microseismicity induced during the KTB 2004/2005 injection experiment GEOPHYSICS 2011; 76 (6): WC47-WC53
- Magnitudes of induced earthquakes and geometric scales of fluid-stimulated rock volumes GEOPHYSICS 2011; 76 (6): WC55-WC63
- Acoustic emission induced by pore-pressure changes in sandstone samples GEOPHYSICS 2011; 76 (3): MA21-MA32
- Decay rate of fluid-induced seismicity after termination of reservoir stimulations GEOPHYSICS 2010; 75 (6): MA53-MA62
Seismogenic index and magnitude probability of earthquakes induced during reservoir fluid stimulations
The Leading Edge
2010; 29 (3): 304-309
View details for DOI 10.1190/1.3353727