All Publications


  • Optimal market thickness JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY Loertscher, S., Muir, E., Taylor, P. G. 2022; 200
  • Road to recovery: Managing an epidemic JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS Loertscher, S., Muir, E. 2021; 93
  • Road to recovery: Managing an epidemic. Journal of mathematical economics Loertscher, S. n., Muir, E. V. 2021; 93: 102482

    Abstract

    Without widespread immunization, the road to recovery from the current COVID-19 lockdowns will optimally follow a path that finds the difficult balance between the social and economic benefits of liberty and the toll from the disease. We provide an approach that combines epidemiology and economic models, taking as given that the maximum capacity of the healthcare system imposes a constraint that must not be exceeded. Treating the transmission rate as a decreasing function of the severity of the lockdown, we first determine the minimal lockdown that satisfies this constraint using an epidemiology model with a homogeneous population to predict future demand for healthcare. Allowing for a heterogeneous population, we then derive the optimal lockdown policy under the assumption of homogeneous mixing and show that it is characterized by a bang-bang solution. Possibilities such as the capacity of the healthcare system increasing or a vaccine arriving at some point in the future do not substantively impact the dynamically optimal policy until such an event actually occurs.

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102482

    View details for PubMedID 33897087

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8052986

  • A general non-central hypergeometric distribution COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS Loertscher, S., Muir, E. V., Taylor, P. G. 2017; 46 (9): 4579-4598
  • Approximating the equilibrium quantity traded and welfare in large markets STOCHASTIC MODELS Muir, E. V., Borovkov, K. 2017; 33 (3): 411-429