Michael Tomz
William Bennett Munro Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Bio
Michael Tomz is the William Bennett Munro Professor in Political Science and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Stanford University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, a Senior Fellow at the Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development, and the Landreth Family University Fellow in Undergraduate Education.
Tomz has published in the fields of international relations, American politics, comparative politics, and statistical methods. He is the author of Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt across Three Centuries and numerous articles in political science and economics journals.
Tomz received the International Studies Association’s Karl Deutsch Award, given to a scholar who, within 10 years of earning a Ph.D., has made the most significant contribution to the study of international relations. He has also won the Giovanni Sartori Award for the best book developing or applying qualitative methods; the Jack L. Walker Award for the best article on Political Organizations and Parties; the best paper award from the APSA section on Elections, Public Opinion and Voting Behavior; the best paper award from the APSA section on Experimental Research; and the Okidata Best Research Software Award. His research has been supported by the National Science Foundation.
Tomz has received numerous teaching awards, including the Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching and the Cox Medal for Excellence in Fostering Undergraduate Research. In 2017 he received Stanford’s highest teaching honor, the Walter J. Gores Award for Excellence in Teaching. He founded and continues to direct the Summer Research College program for undergraduates in political science.
Tomz holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University; a master’s degree from the University of Oxford, where he was a Marshall Scholar; and an undergraduate degree from Georgetown University. He has been a visiting scholar at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the Hoover Institution, the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences, and the International Monetary Fund.
Academic Appointments
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Professor, Political Science
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Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)
Program Affiliations
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Program in International Relations
Professional Education
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B.S.F.S., Georgetown University, International Relations (1992)
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M.Phil., University of Oxford, Politics (1994)
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Ph.D., Harvard University, Political Science (2001)
Stanford Advisees
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Doctoral Dissertation Reader (AC)
Madison Dalton, Hanna Folsz -
Doctoral (Program)
Mae MacDonald, Madeline Materna, Peter Park, Alexander Pumerantz, Johannes Stupperich
All Publications
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Megastudy testing 25 treatments to reduce antidemocratic attitudes and partisan animosity.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
2024; 386 (6719): eadh4764
Abstract
Scholars warn that partisan divisions in the mass public threaten the health of American democracy. We conducted a megastudy (n = 32,059 participants) testing 25 treatments designed by academics and practitioners to reduce Americans' partisan animosity and antidemocratic attitudes. We find that many treatments reduced partisan animosity, most strongly by highlighting relatable sympathetic individuals with different political beliefs or by emphasizing common identities shared by rival partisans. We also identify several treatments that reduced support for undemocratic practices-most strongly by correcting misperceptions of rival partisans' views or highlighting the threat of democratic collapse-which shows that antidemocratic attitudes are not intractable. Taken together, the study's findings identify promising general strategies for reducing partisan division and improving democratic attitudes, shedding theoretical light on challenges facing American democracy.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adh4764
View details for PubMedID 39418366
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How persuasive is AI-generated propaganda?
PNAS nexus
2024; 3 (2): pgae034
Abstract
Can large language models, a form of artificial intelligence (AI), generate persuasive propaganda? We conducted a preregistered survey experiment of US respondents to investigate the persuasiveness of news articles written by foreign propagandists compared to content generated by GPT-3 davinci (a large language model). We found that GPT-3 can create highly persuasive text as measured by participants' agreement with propaganda theses. We further investigated whether a person fluent in English could improve propaganda persuasiveness. Editing the prompt fed to GPT-3 and/or curating GPT-3's output made GPT-3 even more persuasive, and, under certain conditions, as persuasive as the original propaganda. Our findings suggest that propagandists could use AI to create convincing content with limited effort.
View details for DOI 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae034
View details for PubMedID 38380055
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC10878360
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Research can help to tackle AI-generated disinformation.
Nature human behaviour
2023
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41562-023-01726-2
View details for PubMedID 37985906
View details for PubMedCentralID 10306283
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How membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization transforms public support for war.
PNAS nexus
2023; 2 (7): pgad206
Abstract
How do military alliances affect public support for defending targets of aggression? We studied this question by fielding an experiment on 14,000 voters in 13 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Our experiment involved a hypothetical scenario in which Russia attacked a target country. We randomly varied the identity of the target (Bosnia, Finland, Georgia, or Sweden), and whether the target was a member of NATO at the time of the attack. We found that voters in every member country were far more willing to use military force to defend each target when the target was in NATO, than when the target was outside the alliance. The expansion of NATO could, therefore, transform European security by altering the likelihood and scale of future wars. We also uncovered important heterogeneity across targets: the benefits of joining NATO were considerably larger for Bosnia and Georgia than for Finland and Sweden, since most voters in NATO countries would defend Finland and Sweden even if they remained outside the alliance. Finally, the effect of NATO was much stronger among voters who perceived NATO as valuable for their own country. Rhetorical attacks on NATO could, therefore, undermine the alliance by eroding the public's willingness to defend other members, whereas rhetoric highlighting the benefits of NATO could bolster defense and deterrence. These findings advance knowledge about the effects of alliances, while also informing policy debates about the value and size of NATO.
View details for DOI 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad206
View details for PubMedID 37416872
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The Effects of Naming and Shaming on Public Support for Compliance with International Agreements: An Experimental Analysis of the Paris Agreement
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
2021
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0020818321000394
View details for Web of Science ID 000780262900001
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Military Alliances and Public Support for War
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY
2021; 65 (3)
View details for DOI 10.1093/isq/sqab015
View details for Web of Science ID 000756262300020
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Public Opinion and Foreign Electoral Intervention
AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW
2020; 114 (3): 856–73
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055420000064
View details for Web of Science ID 000553658900016
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Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
2020; 74 (1): 119–43
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0020818319000341
View details for Web of Science ID 000510000600005
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Human Rights and Public Support for War
JOURNAL OF POLITICS
2020; 82 (1): 182–94
View details for DOI 10.1086/705741
View details for Web of Science ID 000507300100016
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International commitments and domestic opinion: the effect of the Paris Agreement on public support for policies to address climate change
ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS
2019
View details for DOI 10.1080/09644016.2019.1705056
View details for Web of Science ID 000503895900001
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Does Private Regulation Preempt Public Regulation?
AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW
2019; 113 (1): 19–37
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055418000679
View details for Web of Science ID 000458492100003
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Why Don't Trade Preferences Reflect Economic Self-Interest?
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
2017; 71: S85-S108
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0020818316000394
View details for Web of Science ID 000399999700004
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Conditional Cooperation and Climate Change
COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES
2014; 47 (3): 344-368
View details for DOI 10.1177/0010414013509571
View details for Web of Science ID 000337969500003
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Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace
AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW
2013; 107 (4): 849-865
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055413000488
View details for Web of Science ID 000330464600012
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Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default
ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS, VOL 5
2013; 5: 247-272
View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080443
View details for Web of Science ID 000323894500010
- International Finance Handbook of International Relations edited by Carlsnaes, W., Risse, T., Simmmons, B. New York: Sage. 2012; 2nd: 692–719
- Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Default and Expropriation The Natural Resources Trap: Private Investment without Public Commitment edited by Hogan, W., Sturzenegger, F. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 2010
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The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity
AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW
2009; 103 (1): 83-98
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055409090066
View details for Web of Science ID 000264926400005
- The Foundations of Domestic Audience Costs: Attitudes, Expectations, and Institutions Kitai, Seido, Gurobaru-shakai (Expectations, Institutions, and Global Society) edited by Kohno, M., Tanaka, A. Tokyo: Keiso-Shobo. 2009: 85–97
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Candidate positioning and voter choice
AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW
2008; 102 (3): 303-318
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055408080301
View details for Web of Science ID 000259787100002
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Do we really know that the WTO increases trade? Comment
8th Annual Conference of the International-Society-for-New-Institutional-Economics
AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC. 2007: 2005–18
View details for Web of Science ID 000252228800024
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Domestic audience costs in international relations: An experimental approach
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
2007; 61 (4): 821-840
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0020818307070282
View details for Web of Science ID 000251774600007
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Do countries default in "bad times"?
21th Annual Congress of the European-Economic-Association
WILEY-BLACKWELL. 2007: 352–60
View details for Web of Science ID 000246573600005
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Institutions in International Relations: Understanding the effects of the GATT and the WTO on world trade
Annual Meeting of the American-Political-Science-Association
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS. 2007: 37–67
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0020818307070014
View details for Web of Science ID 000244268300003
- Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt across Three Centuries Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 2007
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How does voting equipment affect the racial gap in voided ballots?
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
2003; 47 (1): 46-60
View details for Web of Science ID 000181804700004
- Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results Journal of Statistical Software 2003; 8 (1)
- Relogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression Journal of Statistical Software 2003; 8 (2)
- Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 2003; 12 (1): 245–246
- Relogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 2003; 12 (1): 246–247
- An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data Political Analysis 2002; 10 (1): 66–83
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Making the most of statistical analyses: Improving interpretation and presentation
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
2000; 44 (2): 347-361
View details for Web of Science ID 000085634900012
- Modern Political Economy and Latin America: Theory and Policy edited by Frieden, J., Pastor, M., Tomz, M. Boulder: Westview Press. 2000
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Electoral surprise and the midterm loss in US congressional elections
BRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
1999; 29: 507-521
View details for Web of Science ID 000080929800004
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The long-run advantages of centralization for collective action: A comment
54th Annual Meeting of the Midwest-Political-Science-Association
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS. 1997: 685–93
View details for Web of Science ID A1997XV70700012