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  • HIV Care Continuum and Meeting 90-90-90 Targets: Cascade of Care Analyses of a U.S. Military Cohort. Military medicine Anglemyer, A., Haber, N., Noiman, A., Rutherford, G., Ganesan, A., Blaylock, J., Okulicz, J., Maves, R. C., Lalani, T., Schofield, C., Mancuso, J., Agan, B. K., Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program HIV Working Group 2020


    INTRODUCTION: The new initiative by the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) aims to decrease new HIV infections in the U.S. by 75% within 5years and 90% within 10years. Our objective was to evaluate whether the U.S. military provides a good example of the benefits of such policies.MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted an analysis of a cohort of 1,405 active duty military personnel with HIV enrolled in the Natural History Study who were diagnosed between 2003 and 2015 at six U.S. military medical centers. The study was approved by institutional review boards at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences and each of the sites. We evaluated the impact of Department of Defense (DoD) HIV care policies, including screening, linkage to care, treatment eligibility, and combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation on achieving viral suppression (VS) within 3years of diagnosis. As a secondary outcome, we evaluated the DoD's achievement of UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets.RESULTS: Nearly all (99%) were linked to care within 60days. Among patients diagnosed in 2003-2009, 77.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 73.9-80.6%) became eligible for cART within 3years of diagnosis, 70.6% (95% CI 66.6-74.1%) overall initiated cART, and 64.2% (95% CI 60.1-68.0%) overall achieved VS. Among patients diagnosed in 2010-2015, 98.7% (95% CI 96.7-99.5%) became eligible for cART within 3years of diagnosis, 98.5% (95% CI 96.4-99.4%) overall initiated cART, and 89.8% (95% CI 86.0-92.5%) overall achieved VS.CONCLUSIONS: U.S. military HIV policies have been highly successful in achieving VS goals, exceeding the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. In spite of limitations, including generalizability, this example demonstrates the feasibility of the DHHS initiative to decrease new infections through testing, early treatment, and retention in care.

    View details for DOI 10.1093/milmed/usaa021

    View details for PubMedID 32207528

  • Limitations of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics: a simulation-based comparison of cross-sectional and longitudinal metrics for the HIV care continuum. AIDS (London, England) Haber, N. A., Lesko, C. R., Fox, M. P., Powers, K. A., Harling, G., Edwards, J., Salomon, J., Lippman, S. A., Bor, J., Chang, A. Y., Anglemyer, A., Pettifor, A. 2020


    OBJECTIVES: The UNAIDS 90-90-90 and other cross-sectional metrics can lead to potentially counterintuitive conclusions when used to evaluate health systems' performance. This study demonstrates how time and population dynamics impact UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics in comparison with a longitudinal analogue.DESIGN: A simplified simulation representing a hypothetical population was used to estimate and compare inference from UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics and a longitudinal metrics based on Kaplan-Meier-estimated 2-year probability of transition between stages.METHODS: We simulated a large cohort over 15 years. Everyone started out at risk for HIV, and then transitioned through the HIV care continuum based on fixed daily probabilities of acquiring HIV, learning status, entering care, initiating ART, and becoming virally suppressed, or dying. Within simulations we only varied the probability of ART initiation. We repeated the simulation with an increased probability of death.RESULTS: The cross-sectional probability of being on ART among persons who were diagnosed responded relatively slowly to changes in the rate of ART initiation. Increases in ART initiation rates caused apparent declines in the cross-sectional probability of being virally suppressed among persons who had initiated ART, despite no changes in the rate of viral suppression. In some cases, higher mortality resulted in the cross-sectional metrics implying improved healthcare system performance. The longitudinal continuum was robust to these issues.CONCLUSION: The UNAIDS 90-90-90 care continuum may lead to incorrect inference when used to evaluate health systems performance. We recommend that evaluation of HIV care delivery include longitudinal care continuum metrics wherever possible.

    View details for DOI 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002502

    View details for PubMedID 32044844

  • The worldwide clinical trial research response to the COVID-19 pandemic - the first 100 days. F1000Research Janiaud, P., Axfors, C., Van't Hooft, J., Saccilotto, R., Agarwal, A., Appenzeller-Herzog, C., Contopoulos-Ioannidis, D. G., Danchev, V., Dirnagl, U., Ewald, H., Gartlehner, G., Goodman, S. N., Haber, N. A., Ioannidis, A. D., Ioannidis, J. P., Lythgoe, M. P., Ma, W., Macleod, M., Malicki, M., Meerpohl, J. J., Min, Y., Moher, D., Nagavci, B., Naudet, F., Pauli-Magnus, C., O'Sullivan, J. W., Riedel, N., Roth, J. A., Sauermann, M., Schandelmaier, S., Schmitt, A. M., Speich, B., Williamson, P. R., Hemkens, L. G. 2020; 9: 1193


    Background: Never before have clinical trials drawn as much public attention as those testing interventions for COVID-19. We aimed to describe the worldwide COVID-19 clinical research response and its evolution over the first 100 days of the pandemic. Methods: Descriptive analysis of planned, ongoing or completed trials by April 9, 2020 testing any intervention to treat or prevent COVID-19, systematically identified in trial registries, preprint servers, and literature databases. A survey was conducted of all trials to assess their recruitment status up to July 6, 2020. Results: Most of the 689 trials (overall target sample size 396,366) were small (median sample size 120; interquartile range [IQR] 60-300) but randomized (75.8%; n=522) and were often conducted in China (51.1%; n=352) or the USA (11%; n=76). 525 trials (76.2%) planned to include 155,571 hospitalized patients, and 25 (3.6%) planned to include 96,821 health-care workers. Treatments were evaluated in 607 trials (88.1%), frequently antivirals (n=144) or antimalarials (n=112); 78 trials (11.3%) focused on prevention, including 14 vaccine trials. No trial investigated social distancing. Interventions tested in 11 trials with >5,000 participants were also tested in 169 smaller trials (median sample size 273; IQR 90-700). Hydroxychloroquine alone was investigated in 110 trials. While 414 trials (60.0%) expected completion in 2020, only 35 trials (4.1%; 3,071 participants) were completed by July 6. Of 112 trials with detailed recruitment information, 55 had recruited <20% of the targeted sample; 27 between 20-50%; and 30 over 50% (median 14.8% [IQR 2.0-62.0%]). Conclusions: The size and speed of the COVID-19 clinical trials agenda is unprecedented. However, most trials were small investigating a small fraction of treatment options. The feasibility of this research agenda is questionable, and many trials may end in futility, wasting research resources. Much better coordination is needed to respond to global health threats.

    View details for DOI 10.12688/f1000research.26707.1

    View details for PubMedID 33082937

  • Improving the Validity of Mathematical Models for HIV Elimination by Incorporating Empirical Estimates of Progression Through the HIV Treatment Cascade JAIDS-JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES Chang, A. Y., Haber, N., Barnighausen, T., Herbst, K., Gareta, D., Pillay, D., Salomon, J. A. 2018; 79 (5): 596–604
  • Improving the validity of mathematical models for HIV elimination by incorporating empirical estimates of progression through the HIV treatment cascade. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) Chang, A. Y., Haber, N., Barnighausen, T., Herbst, K., Gareta, D., Pillay, D., Salomon, J. A. 2018


    BACKGROUND: Optimism regarding prospects for eliminating HIV by expanding antiretroviral treatment has been emboldened in part by projections from several mathematical modeling studies. Drawing from a detailed empirical assessment of rates of progression through the entire HIV care cascade, we quantify for the first time the extent to which models may overestimate health benefits from policy changes when they fail to incorporate a realistic understanding of the cascade.SETTING: Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa METHODS:: We estimated rates of progression through stages of the HIV treatment cascade using data from a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal. Incorporating empirical estimates in a mathematical model of HIV progression, infection transmission, and care, we estimated life expectancy and secondary infections averted under a range of treatment scale-up scenarios reflecting expanding treatment eligibility thresholds. We compared the results to those implied by the conventional assumptions that have been commonly adopted by existing models.RESULTS: Survival gains from expanding the treatment eligibility threshold from CD4 350 to 500 cells/muL and from 500 cells/muL to treating everyone irrespective of their CD4 count may be overestimated by 3.60 and 3.79 times in models that fail to capture realities of the care cascade. HIV infections averted from raising the threshold from CD4 200 to 350, 350 to 500, and 500 cells/muL to treating everyone may be overestimated by 1.10, 2.65, and 1.18 times.CONCLUSION: Models using conventional assumptions about cascade progression may substantially overestimate health benefits. As implementation of treatment scale-up proceeds, it is important to assess the effects of required scale-up efforts in a way that incorporates empirical realities of how people move through the HIV cascade.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC) , where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal.

    View details for PubMedID 30272631