EVOLUTION AND GENOMIC EPIDEMIOLOGY OF DENGUE VIRUSIN RURAL AND URBAN COMMUNITIES IN KENYA
AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE. 2021: 328
View details for Web of Science ID 000778105603119
- Influenza, Varicella, and Mumps Outbreaks in US Migrant Detention Centers. JAMA 2020
Risk factors for Aedes aegypti household pupal persistence in longitudinal entomological household surveys in urban and rural Kenya.
Parasites & vectors
2020; 13 (1): 499
BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti is an efficient vector of several arboviruses of public health importance, including Zika and dengue. Currently vector management is the only available avenue for disease control. Development of efficient vector control strategies requires a thorough understanding of vector ecology. In this study, we identified households that are consistently productive for Ae. aegypti pupae and determined the ecological and socio-demographic factors associated with the persistence and abundance of pupae in households in rural and urban Kenya.METHODS: We collected socio-demographic, environmental and entomological data monthly from July 2014 to June 2018 from 80 households across four sites in Kenya. Pupae count data were collected via entomological surveillance of households and paired with socio-demographic and environmental data. We calculated pupal persistence within a household as the number of months of pupal presence within a year. We used spatially explicit generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to identify the risk factors for pupal abundance, and a logistic regression to identify the risk factors for pupal persistence in households.RESULTS: The median number of months of pupal presence observed in households was 4 and ranged from 0 to 35 months. We identified pupal persistence in 85 house-years. The strongest risk factors for high pupal abundance were the presence of bushes or tall grass in the peri-domicile area (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.13-2.28), open eaves (OR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.33-4.95) and high habitat counts (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.21-1.66). The main risk factors for pupal persistence were the presence of bushes or tall grass in the peri-domicile (OR: 4.20, 95% CI: 1.42-12.46) and high number of breeding sites (OR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.03-4.58).CONCLUSIONS: We observed Ae. aegypti pupal persistence at the household level in urban and rural and in coastal and inland Kenya. High counts of potential breeding containers, vegetation in the peri-domicile area and the presence of eaves were strongly associated with increased risk of pupal persistence and abundance. Targeting households that exhibit pupal persistence alongside the risk factors for pupal abundance in vector control interventions may result in more efficient use of limited resources.
View details for DOI 10.1186/s13071-020-04378-7
View details for PubMedID 33004074
Can following formula-feeding recommendations still result in infants who are overweight or have obesity?
BACKGROUND: Studies show that by 3 months, over half of US infants receive formula, and guidelines play a key role in formula feeding. The question then is, what might happen if caregivers follow guidelines and, more specifically, are there situations where following guidelines can result in infants who are overweight/have obesity?METHODS: We used our "Virtual Infant" agent-based model representing infant-caregiver pairs that allowed caregivers to feed infants each day according to guidelines put forth by Johns Hopkins Medicine (JHM), Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters (CHKD), and Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). The model simulated the resulting development of the infants from birth to 6 months. The two sets of guidelines vary in their recommendations, and do not provide studies that support amounts at given ages.RESULTS: Simulations identified several scenarios where caregivers followed JHM/CHOP/CHKD and WIC guidelines, but infants still became overweight/with obesity by 6 months. For JHM/CHOP/CHKD guidelines, this occurred even when caregivers adjusted feeding based on infant's weight. For WIC guidelines, when caregivers adjusted formula amounts, infants maintained healthy weight.CONCLUSIONS: WIC guidelines may be a good starting point for caregivers who adjust as their infant grows, but the minimum amounts for JHM/CHKD/CHOP recommendations may be too high.IMPACT: Our virtual infant simulation study answers the question: can caregivers follow current formula-feeding guidelines and still end up with an infant who is overweight or has obesity?Our study identified several situations in which unhealthy weight gain and/or weight loss could result from following established formula-feeding recommendations.Our study also suggests that the minimum recommended amount of daily formula feeding should be lower for JHM/CHOP/CHKD guidelines to give caregivers more flexibility in adjusting daily feeding levels in response to infant weight.WIC guidelines may be a good starting point for caregivers who adjust as their infant grows.In order to understand how to adjust guidelines, we can use computational simulation models, which serve as "virtual laboratories" to help overcome the logistical and ethical issues of clinical trials.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41390-020-0844-3
View details for PubMedID 32179869
- The 2016 California policy to eliminate nonmedical vaccine exemptions and changes in vaccine coverage: An empirical policy analysis PLOS MEDICINE 2019; 16 (12)
The 2016 California policy to eliminate nonmedical vaccine exemptions and changes in vaccine coverage: An empirical policy analysis.
2019; 16 (12): e1002994
Vaccine hesitancy, the reluctance or refusal to receive vaccination, is a growing public health problem in the United States and globally. State policies that eliminate nonmedical ("personal belief") exemptions to childhood vaccination requirements are controversial, and their effectiveness to improve vaccination coverage remains unclear given limited rigorous policy analysis. In 2016, a California policy (Senate Bill 277) eliminated nonmedical exemptions from school entry requirements. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between California's 2016 policy and changes in vaccine coverage.We used a quasi-experimental state-level synthetic control analysis and a county-level difference-in-differences analysis to estimate the impact of the 2016 California policy on vaccination coverage and prevalence of exemptions to vaccine requirements (nonmedical and medical). We used publicly available state-level data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on coverage of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination, nonmedical exemption, and medical exemption in children entering kindergarten. We used county-level data individually requested from state departments of public health on overall vaccine coverage and exemptions. Based on data availability, we included state-level data for 45 states, including California, from 2011 to 2017 and county-level data for 17 states from 2010 to 2017. The prespecified primary study outcome was MMR vaccination in the state analysis and overall vaccine coverage in the county analysis. In the state-level synthetic control analysis, MMR coverage in California increased by 3.3% relative to its synthetic control in the postpolicy period (top 2 of 43 states evaluated in the placebo tests, top 5%), nonmedical exemptions decreased by 2.4% (top 2 of 43 states evaluated in the placebo tests, top 5%), and medical exemptions increased by 0.4% (top 1 of 44 states evaluated in the placebo tests, top 2%). In the county-level analysis, overall vaccination coverage increased by 4.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9%-5.8%, p < 0.001), nonmedical exemptions decreased by 3.9% (95% CI 2.4%-5.4%, p < 0.001), and medical exemptions increased by 2.4% (95% CI 2.0%-2.9%, p < 0.001). Changes in vaccination coverage across counties after the policy implementation from 2015 to 2017 ranged from -6% to 26%, with larger increases in coverage in counties with lower prepolicy vaccine coverage. Results were robust to alternative model specifications. The limitations of the study were the exclusion of a subset of US states from the analysis and the use of only 2 years of postpolicy data based on data availability.In this study, implementation of the California policy that eliminated nonmedical childhood vaccine exemptions was associated with an estimated increase in vaccination coverage and a reduction in nonmedical exemptions at state and county levels. The observed increase in medical exemptions was offset by the larger reduction in nonmedical exemptions. The largest increases in vaccine coverage were observed in the most "high-risk" counties, meaning those with the lowest prepolicy vaccine coverage. Our findings suggest that government policies removing nonmedical exemptions can be effective at increasing vaccination coverage.
View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002994
View details for PubMedID 31869328
ENVIRONMENTAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC RISK FACTORS FOR AEDES AEGYPTI VECTOR PERSISTENCE IN URBAN AND RURAL KENYA
AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE. 2019: 445
View details for Web of Science ID 000507364504159