- The Political Context and Infant Health in the United States AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW 2021
Getting a Job, Again: New Evidence against Subjective Well-Being Scarring
View details for DOI 10.1093/sf/soaa086
How College Makes Liberals (or Conservatives)
View details for DOI 10.1177/2378023120982435
- The Transition to Fatherhood and the Health of Men JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY 2020
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1915006117
View details for PubMedID 32229555