Ivan Higuera-Mendieta

All Publications

• The air pollution benefits of low-severity fire. Science (New York, N.Y.) Higuera-Mendieta, I., Burke, M. 2026; 392 (6803): eaea2490

  Abstract

  Wildfires are reversing decades of air quality improvements across much of the US. Expanded use of prescribed fire is a primary proposed solution, but air quality trade-offs-more initial smoke for less smoke later-remain poorly quantified. Using two decades of satellite-derived measurements of fire severity and smoke particulate matter across California, we assessed the causal effect of low-severity wildfire, a proxy for prescribed burning, on subsequent wildfire activity and air quality. We found that low-severity fire reduced the probability of very-high-severity wildfire by 92%, with reductions lasting a decade and extending 5 kilometers from treated locations. Reduced future smoke far outweighed the smoke produced during treatment, with benefit-cost ratios exceeding five after a decade. Sustained treatment of 500,000 acres annually would reduce cumulative smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by about 10% after a decade.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aea2490

  View details for PubMedID 42275498

• Valuing wildfire smoke-related mortality benefits from climate mitigation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Qiu, M., Callahan, C. W., Higuera-Mendieta, I., Rennels, L., Parthum, B., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Burke, M. 2026; 123 (8): e2533772123

  Abstract

  Human-induced climate change has increased wildfire risks, associated air pollution, and health damages in North America. Despite its large potential for damage, climate-induced wildfire smoke is rarely incorporated in estimates of the societal costs of climate change. We develop an integrated framework to estimate air pollution from climate-induced wildfire smoke (fine particulate matter, PM2.5) and the associated mortality damage in the United States across different trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and global mean surface temperature. Our framework accounts for fire-vegetation feedbacks by empirically estimating the effects of past fires on future burn probability. Under 3 °C of global warming (relative to 1850-1900), we estimate that smoke exposure will lead to 64,000 deaths annually in the United States (95% CI: 33,500 to 112,300; calculated using historical population), a 60% increase above estimated annual smoke deaths during 2011-2020. Limiting global warming to 2 °C reduces smoke-related mortality by 14% (8,900 deaths per year) relative to our estimate for 3 °C. For every additional tonne of CO2 emissions in 2025, we calculate a net present value of monetized damage (i.e., a partial social cost of carbon) of $11.2 (95%CI: [Formula: see text]$1.1 to $41.6; 2020USD) due to climate-induced wildfire smoke mortality in the United States. Incorporating wildfire smoke damages into existing nonwildfire damage estimates increases the US domestic social cost of carbon by 74%, substantially increasing the expected benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation within the United States.

  View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2533772123

  View details for PubMedID 41712632

• Effect of Recent Prescribed Burning and Land Management on Wildfire Burn Severity and Smoke Emissions in the Western United States AGU ADVANCES Kelp, M., Burke, M., Qiu, M., Higuera-Mendieta, I., Liu, T., Diffenbaugh, N. S. 2025; 6 (3)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2025AV001682

  View details for Web of Science ID 001517258200001