Bio

Adam Zsarnóczay is a Research Engineer at the John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center at Stanford University, where he focuses on disaster simulations that support multi-hazard risk assessment and management at a regional scale. As an Associate Director at the NHERI SimCenter, he manages the development of SimCenter's computational simulation platform and works closely with researchers and practitioners to foster collaboration in the natural hazards engineering community. Adam obtained his Ph.D. in civil engineering at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics and also completed a graduate program at the University of Tokyo. He has experience working at scales ranging from an individual structural member through a building to cities with hundreds of thousands of assets. His research interests include probabilistic natural hazard assessment, model development and calibration for structural response estimation and performance assessment, surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification in large-scale, regional simulations, and using quantitative disaster simulations to support risk management and mitigation.

Academic Appointments

  • Sr Research Engineer, Civil and Environmental Engineering

Contact

  • Academic
    adamzs@stanford.edu
    Department: Civil and Environmental Engineering Position: Senior Research Engineer

Additional Info

Links

Current Research and Scholarly Interests

Adam's research focuses on disaster simulations that support multi-hazard risk assessment and management at a regional scale. He has experience working at scales that range from an individual structural member through a building up to cities with hundreds of thousands of assets. His research interests include probabilistic natural hazard assessment, model development and calibration for structural response estimation and performance assessment, surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification in large-scale, regional simulations, and using quantitative disaster simulations to support risk management and mitigation.

All Publications

  • Accessing acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area after a major hayward earthquake. Nature communications Ceferino, L., Kukunoor, C., Zhao, J., Mao, D., Xu, X., Wu, J., Zsarnóczay, A. 2025; 16 (1): 9328

    Abstract

    Earthquakes can severely disrupt healthcare access, especially in dense cities. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how a magnitude 7.25 earthquake on the Hayward Fault would impact access to acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area. By integrating seismic hazard with hospital and transportation infrastructure's vulnerability and connectivity data, we analyze 76 hospitals (426 buildings with 16,639 beds) and 5163 bridges within a vast network of  ~1.5 million edges and  ~0.5 million nodes. We leverage the rich data to formulate a coupled risk-network model to quantify simultaneous failures and cascading disruptions across the healthcare and transportation systems. Our results revealed that hospital bed capacity could drop to 51%, with Alameda County retaining only 20%. Widespread transportation failures further restrict access, increasing regional travel times by 177% and exceeding 1000% in parts of East Bay, potentially fully isolating a hospital and an entire urban community. These findings underscore the urgent need for resilient healthcare and transportation infrastructure to mitigate life-threatening disruptions following major earthquakes.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-64354-6

    View details for PubMedID 41125633

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12546628

  • An open-source simulation platform to support and foster research collaboration in natural hazards engineering FRONTIERS IN BUILT ENVIRONMENT Zsarnoczay, A., Deierlein, G. G., McKenna, F., Schoettler, M., Yi, S., Cetiner, B., Satish, A., Zhao, J., Bonus, J., Melaku, A. F., Naeimi, S., Arduino, P., Davidson, R., Gorle, C., Govindjee, S., Kareem, A., Kijewski-Correa, T. L., Lowes, L. N., Motley, M., Spence, S. M. J., Taciroglu, E., Taflanidis, A. A., Dejong, M. 2025; 11

    View details for DOI 10.3389/fbuil.2025.1590479

    View details for Web of Science ID 001551942100001

  • Modeling post-earthquake functional recovery of bridges EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA Wu, C., Burton, H., Zsarnoczay, A., Chen, S., Xie, Y., Terzic, V., Guenay, S., Padgett, J. E., Mieler, M., Almufti, I. 2025; 41 (3): 2089-2122

    View details for DOI 10.1177/87552930251321301

    View details for Web of Science ID 001545453000008

  • Unifying the Current State of the Art in Hurricane Wind Risk Simulations: A Systematic Review JOURNAL OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING Hamburger, R., Zsarnoczay, A., Otu Tackie-Otoo, N., Kijewski-Correa, T., Davidson, R. A., Spence, S. M. J. 2025; 151 (8)

    View details for DOI 10.1061/JSENDH.STENG-14590

    View details for Web of Science ID 001510005300025

  • Impact of parameter selection on seismic loss and recovery time estimates: A variance-based sensitivity analysis EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA Kourehpaz, P., Hutt, C., Zsarnoczay, A. 2025; 41 (2): 1713-1737

    View details for DOI 10.1177/87552930241307624

    View details for Web of Science ID 001472374400002

  • Modeling post-disaster recovery: Accounting for rental and multi-family housing EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA Mongold, E., Costa, R., Zsarnoczay, A., Baker, J. W. 2024; 40 (2): 1353-1375

    View details for DOI 10.1177/87552930231222769

    View details for Web of Science ID 001215168200013

  • Consequences of consequence models: The impact of economies of scale on seismic loss estimates EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA Banihashemi, M., Miliziano, A., Zsarnoczay, A., Wiebe, L., Filiatrault, A. 2024; 40 (2): 1396-1424

    View details for DOI 10.1177/87552930231220001

    View details for Web of Science ID 001215168200011

  • Validation of an Augmented Parcel Approach for Hurricane Regional Loss Assessments NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW Kijewski-Correa, T., Cetiner, B., Zhong, K., Wang, C., Zsarnoczay, A., Guo, Y., Lochhead, M., McKenna, F. 2023; 24 (3)

    View details for DOI 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1649

    View details for Web of Science ID 001011046300012

  • Community Perspectives on Simulation and Data Needs for the Study of Natural Hazard Impacts and Recovery NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW Zsarnoczay, A., Deierlein, G. G., Williams, C. J., Kijewski-Correa, T. L., Esnard, A., Lowes, L. N., Johnson, L. 2023; 24 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1551

    View details for Web of Science ID 000899336200020

  • Machine learning-based regional scale intelligent modeling of building information for natural hazard risk management AUTOMATION IN CONSTRUCTION Wang, C., Yu, Q., Law, K. H., McKenna, F., Yu, S. X., Taciroglu, E., Zsarnoczay, A., Elhaddad, W., Cetiner, B. 2021; 122

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.autcon.2020.103474

    View details for Web of Science ID 000608116800007

  • A Cloud-Enabled Application Framework for Simulating Regional-Scale Impacts of Natural Hazards on the Built Environment FRONTIERS IN BUILT ENVIRONMENT Deierlein, G. G., McKenna, F., Zsarnoczay, A., Kijewski-Correa, T., Kareem, A., Elhaddad, W., Lowes, L., Schoettler, M. J., Govindjee, S. 2020; 6

    View details for DOI 10.3389/fbuil.2020.558706

    View details for Web of Science ID 000596562100001

  • Using model error in response history analysis to evaluate component calibration methods EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS Zsarnoczay, A., Baker, J. W. 2019

    View details for DOI 10.1002/eqe.3234

    View details for Web of Science ID 000498763100001

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6895-1417