Contact

  • Academic
    trok@stanford.edu
    University - Student Department: Department of Earth System Science Position: Graduate

Additional Info

  • Mail Code: 4216

Links

All Publications

  • Machine learning-based extreme event attribution. Science advances Trok, J. T., Barnes, E. A., Davenport, F. V., Diffenbaugh, N. S. 2024; 10 (34): eadl3242

    Abstract

    The observed increase in extreme weather has prompted recent methodological advances in extreme event attribution. We propose a machine learning-based approach that uses convolutional neural networks to create dynamically consistent counterfactual versions of historical extreme events under different levels of global mean temperature (GMT). We apply this technique to one recent extreme heat event (southcentral North America 2023) and several historical events that have been previously analyzed using established attribution methods. We estimate that temperatures during the southcentral North America event were 1.18° to 1.42°C warmer because of global warming and that similar events will occur 0.14 to 0.60 times per year at 2.0°C above preindustrial levels of GMT. Additionally, we find that the learned relationships between daily temperature and GMT are influenced by the seasonality of the forced temperature response and the daily meteorological conditions. Our results broadly agree with other attribution techniques, suggesting that machine learning can be used to perform rapid, low-cost attribution of extreme events.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adl3242

    View details for PubMedID 39167638

  • Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Rastogi, D., Trok, J., Depsky, N., Monier, E., Jones, A. 2024; 19 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0efe

    View details for Web of Science ID 001117696200001

  • Using Machine Learning With Partial Dependence Analysis to Investigate Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Near-Surface Temperature JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES Trok, J. T., Davenport, F. V., Barnes, E. A., Diffenbaugh, N. S. 2023; 128 (12)

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2022JD038365

    View details for Web of Science ID 001022733800001