Basic Life Science Research Associate, Academic Units
Postdoctoral Scholar, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
2017; 23 (1): 28-41
Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.
View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13457
View details for Web of Science ID 000390218300004
View details for PubMedID 27507077
- OPAL: An open-source software tool for integrating biodiversity and ecosystem services into impact assessment and mitigation decisions ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 2016; 84: 121-133
- Entry Points for Considering Ecosystem Services within Infrastructure Planning: How to Integrate Conservation with Development in Order to Aid Them Both CONSERVATION LETTERS 2016; 9 (3): 221-227
- Model development for the assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in conservation planning SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2016; 540: 63-70
- Degradation in carbon stocks near tropical forest edges NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 2015; 6
- Moderate land use changes plant functional composition without loss of functional diversity in India's Western Ghats ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 2015; 25 (6): 1711-1724
- Who loses? Tracking ecosystem service redistribution from road development and mitigation in the Peruvian Amazon FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT 2015; 13 (6): 309-315
- Resilience of palm populations to disturbance is determined by interactive effects of fire, herbivory and harvest JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY 2015; 103 (4): 1032-1043
Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2015; 112 (24): 7402-7407
The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1406485112
View details for Web of Science ID 000356251800035
View details for PubMedID 26082547
- Assessing the Effects of Multiple Stressors on the Recruitment of Fruit Harvested Trees in a Tropical Dry Forest, Western Ghats, India PLOS ONE 2015; 10 (3)
Assessing the effects of multiple stressors on the recruitment of fruit harvested trees in a tropical dry forest, Western Ghats, India.
2015; 10 (3)
The harvest of non-timber forest products (NTFPs), together with other sources of anthropogenic disturbance, impact plant populations greatly. Despite this, conservation research on NTFPs typically focuses on harvest alone, ignoring possible confounding effects of other anthropogenic and ecological factors. Disentangling anthropogenic disturbances is critical in regions such as India's Western Ghats, a biodiversity hotspot with high human density. Identifying strategies that permit both use and conservation of resources is essential to preserving biodiversity while meeting local needs. We assessed the effects of NTFP harvesting (fruit harvest from canopy and lopping of branches for fruit) in combination with other common anthropogenic disturbances (cattle grazing, fire frequency and distance from village), in order to identify which stressors have greater effects on recruitment of three tropical dry forest fruit tree species. Specifically, we assessed the structure of 54 populations of Phyllanthus emblica, P. indofischeri and Terminalia chebula spread across the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats to ask: (1) How are populations recruiting? and (2) What anthropogenic disturbance and environmental factors, specifically forest type and elevation, are the most important predictors of recruitment status? We combined participatory research with an information-theoretic model-averaging approach to determine which factors most affect population structure and recruitment status. Our models illustrate that for T. chebula, high fire frequency and high fruit harvest intensity decreased the proportion of saplings, while lopping branches or stems to obtain fruit increased it. For Phyllanthus spp, recruitment was significantly lower in plots with more frequent fire. Indices of recruitment of both species were significantly higher for plots in more open-canopy environments of savanna woodlands than in dry forests. Our research illustrates an approach for identifying which factors are most important in limiting recruitment of NTFP populations and other plant species that may be in decline, in order to design effective management strategies.
View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0119634
View details for PubMedID 25781482
- High frequency of premature termination mutations in the factor V gene: Three factor V deficiency case reports and a mutation review THROMBOSIS AND HAEMOSTASIS 2005; 93 (3): 610-611