Bio


Dr. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell's specialty is engineering risk analysis with application to complex systems (space, medical etc.). Her research has focused on explicit inclusion of human and organizational factors in the analysis of systems' failure risks. Her recent work is on the use of game theory in risk analysis with applications that have included counter-terrorism and nuclear counter-proliferation problems.

She is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, the French Academie des Technologies and of several boards including Aerospace, Draper Laboratory and InQtel. Dr. Paté-Cornell was a member of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board from December 2001 to 2008. She holds and Engineering degree (Applied Math/CS) from the Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble (France), an MS in Operations Research and a PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems, both from Stanford University.

Academic Appointments


  • Professor, Management Science and Engineering

Administrative Appointments


  • Member, Board of Advisors of NPS Monterey (2012 - Present)
  • Former Chair, Department of Management Science and Engineering (2000 - 2011)

Honors & Awards


  • Visiting Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria (July-August 1979)
  • Visiting Scholar, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (January-March, 1995)
  • Visiting Professor, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Cachan, France (March 1996)
  • Best Paper Award, American Nuclear Society (June 1990)
  • Finalist-Edelman Management Award, The Institute for Management Science (May 1993)
  • Stanford Fellow, NASA-ASEE (1994)
  • Decision Analysis Publication Award for the year, Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (1994)
  • Chair, Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (2002-03)
  • Member, French Academy of Engineering (2003)
  • Conseiller, (Advisor), French Academy of Engineering (2001)
  • Fellow, Society for Risk Analysis (1995)
  • President, Society for Risk Analysis (1995-1996)
  • Council member, National Academy of Engineering (2001)
  • Member, National Academy of Engineering (1995)
  • Best paper of the year, IEEE Engineering Management Society (EMS) (2001)
  • Teaching Award for graduate teaching at the doctoral level, Stanford Department of Management Science and Engineering (June 2002)
  • Award for Meritorious Civilian Service, U.S. Air Force (2002)
  • Distinguished Achievement Award, Society for Risk Analysis (2002)
  • Fellows Award, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) (2002)
  • Best-paper Award for the year, Military Operations Research Journal (2003)

Boards, Advisory Committees, Professional Organizations


  • Member, National Academy of Engineering (2013 - Present)

Professional Education


  • PhD, Stanford University (1978)

Journal Articles


  • Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations DECISION ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2012; 9 (2): 186-203
  • Insolvencies in the American Property and Casualty Insurance Industry: a System's Approach Risk and Decision Analysis Deleris, L., A., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012; 3: 3-18
  • Risk and Decision Analysis: Academic Experience and Current Research Epstein Institute invited seminar series, University of Southern California. Los Angeles, CA. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Risk Management in Game Situations: Principal-agent, Adversarial and Cooperation Examples MIT, Engineering Systems Division Lecture Series, Cambridge MA. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program DECISION ANALYSIS Caswell, D. J., Howard, R. A., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2011; 8 (1): 30-45
  • Probabilistic Analysis of a Country's Program to Acquire Nuclear Weapons MILITARY OPERATIONS RESEARCH Caswell, D. J., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2011; 16 (1): 5-20
  • Probabilistic Analysis of a Country’s Program to Acquire Nuclear Weapons Military Operations Research Caswell, D., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011; 16 (1): 5-16
  • Risk analysis when intelligent actors are involved (illustrated by the cases of the failure risks of the tiles of the space shuttle and patient risks in anesthesia), Invited Lecture Series in Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore (NUS). Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
  • Stage-Gate Process for the Development of Medical Devices JOURNAL OF MEDICAL DEVICES-TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASME Pietzsch, J. B., Shluzas, L. A., Pate-Cornell, M. E., Yock, P. G., Linehan, J. H. 2009; 3 (2)

    View details for DOI 10.1115/1.3148836

    View details for Web of Science ID 000283763700004

  • Greener grass and faster lanes On the roots of the brain drain from Europe to the US, Atomium Culture, European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
  • Failure Risks in the Insurance Industry: A Quantitative Systems Analysis The Risk Management and Insurance Review Paté-Cornell, M., E., Deleris, L., A. 2009; 12 (2): 199-212
  • Bayesian assessment of overtriage and undertriage at a level I trauma centre PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES DiDomenico, P. B., Pietzsch, J. B., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2008; 366 (1874): 2265-2277

    Abstract

    We analysed the trauma triage system at a specific level I trauma centre to assess rates of over- and undertriage and to support recommendations for system improvements. The triage process is designed to estimate the severity of patient injury and allocate resources accordingly, with potential errors of overestimation (overtriage) consuming excess resources and underestimation (undertriage) potentially leading to medical errors.We first modelled the overall trauma system using risk analysis methods to understand interdependencies among the actions of the participants. We interviewed six experienced trauma surgeons to obtain their expert opinion of the over- and undertriage rates occurring in the trauma centre. We then assessed actual over- and undertriage rates in a random sample of 86 trauma cases collected over a six-week period at the same centre. We employed Bayesian analysis to quantitatively combine the data with the prior probabilities derived from expert opinion in order to obtain posterior distributions. The results were estimates of overtriage and undertriage in 16.1 and 4.9% of patients, respectively. This Bayesian approach, which provides a quantitative assessment of the error rates using both case data and expert opinion, provides a rational means of obtaining a best estimate of the system's performance. The overall approach that we describe in this paper can be employed more widely to analyse complex health care delivery systems, with the objective of reduced errors, patient risk and excess costs.

    View details for DOI 10.1098/rsta.2008.0036

    View details for Web of Science ID 000256067000003

    View details for PubMedID 18407901

  • Risk analysis when several decision makers are involved: policy and management examples FUR XIII, Barcelona, Spain. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
  • Early technology assessment of new medical devices INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT IN HEALTH CARE Pietzsch, J. B., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2008; 24 (1): 36-44

    Abstract

    In the United States, medical devices represent an eighty-billion dollar a year market. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration rejects a significant number of applications of devices that reach the investigational stage. The prospects of improving patient condition, as well as firms' profits, are thus substantial, but fraught with uncertainties at the time when investments and design decisions are made. This study presents a quantitative model focused on the risk aspects of early technology assessment, designed to support the decisions of medical device firms in the investment and development stages.The model is based on the engineering risk analysis method involving systems analysis and probability. It assumes use of all evidence available (both direct and indirect) and integrates the information through a linear formula of aggregation of probability distributions. The model is illustrated by a schematic version of the case of the AtrialShaper, a device for the reduction of stroke risk that is currently in the preprototype stage.The results of the modeling provide a more complete description of the evidence base available to support early-stage decisions, thus allowing comparison of alternative designs and management alternatives.The model presented here provides early-stage decision-support to industry, but also benefits regulators and payers in their later assessment of new devices and associated procedures.

    View details for DOI 10.1017/S0266462307080051

    View details for Web of Science ID 000252748100005

    View details for PubMedID 18218167

  • Assessment of Overtriage and Undertriage at a Level I Trauma Centre Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences DiDomenico, P., B., Pietzsch, J., B., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008: 2265-2277
  • Engineering Risk Analysis IEEE Technology Management Council of Silicon Valley, Sunnyvale CA. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
  • Engineering Risk Analysis: What we do, how we do it, and why do we do it? IPER 330, Stanford University Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2007
  • Review of US Medical Device Regulation Journal of Medical Devices Pietzsch, J., B., Aquino, L., M., Yock, P., G, Paté-Cornell, M., E., Linehan, J., H. 2007; 1: 283-292
  • Engineering risk analysis of a hospital oxygen supply system MEDICAL DECISION MAKING Deleris, L. A., Yeo, G. L., Seiver, A., Pate-Cornell, M. 2006; 26 (2): 162-172

    Abstract

    Reports from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) have emphasized the potential for injury to patients caused by failures in oxygen supply systems. This article presents a model of patient risk related to the process of supplying oxygen at a single university hospital. One of the goals of the article is to illustrate how probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) can be used by hospitals to assess and mitigate risk and, therefore, to meet JCAHO requirements. PRA techniques are useful to 1) model the reliability of a complex system and 2) assess the cost-effectiveness of different risk mitigation measures. The authors focus on the risk estimation step, describing in detail their modeling of the oxygen supply system and analysis of the results. For the hospital that the authors study (20,000 admissions yearly), the total expected number of fatalities from oxygen system failure is 44 over a 30-year time horizon. The greatest contribution to the risk (94% of the expected number of fatalities) comes from problems that involve the supply network (e.g., damage to structure and poisoning) as opposed to incidents that occur inside patient rooms. Although the threat to patient safety is not dramatic, health care organizations should be concerned about potential failures of their oxygen system because improving this system could avoid low-probability, high-consequence failures at a low cost.

    View details for DOI 10.1177/0272989X06286477

    View details for Web of Science ID 000236557400008

    View details for PubMedID 16525170

  • The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support Decision Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. 2006; 3 (4): 220-232
  • Probability of infancy problems for space launch vehicles RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY Guikema, S. D., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2005; 87 (3): 303-314
  • Including Technical and Security Risks in the Management of Information Systems: A Programmatic Risk Management Model Systems Engineering Dillon, L., R, Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005; 8 (1): 15-28
  • Optimal Use of Budget Reserves to Minimize Technical and Management Failure Risks During Complex Project Development IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management Dillon, L., R., Pate-Cornell, M., E., Guikema, S., D. 2005; 52 (3)
  • On the limitations of redundancies in the improvement of system reliability RISK ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E., Dillon, R. L., Guikema, S. D. 2004; 24 (6): 1423-1436

    Abstract

    Some program managers share a common belief that adding a redundant component to a system reduces the probability of failure by half. This is true only if the failures of the redundant components are independent events, which is rarely the case. For example, the redundant components may be subjected to the same external loads. There is, however, in general a decrease in the failure probability of the system. Nonetheless, the redundant element comes at a cost, even if it is less than that of developing the first one when both are based on the same design. Identical parts save the most in terms of design costs, but are subjected to common failure modes from possible design errors that limit the effectiveness of the redundancy. In the development of critical systems, managers thus need to decide if the costs of a parallel system are justified by the increase in the system's reliability. NASA, for example, has used redundant spacecraft to increase the chances of mission success, which worked well in the cases of the Viking and Voyager missions. These two successes, however, do not guarantee future ones. We present here a risk analysis framework accounting for dependencies to support the decision to launch at the same time a twin mission of identical spacecraft, given incremental costs and risk-reduction benefits of the second one. We illustrate this analytical approach with the case of the Mars Exploration Rovers launched by NASA in 2003, for which we had performed this assessment in 2001.

    View details for Web of Science ID 000226235800003

    View details for PubMedID 15660601

  • Dynamic modeling of the tradeoff between productivity and safety in critical engineering systems RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY Cowing, M. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E., Glynn, P. W. 2004; 86 (3): 269-284
  • Managing technology development for safety-critical systems IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Sachon, M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 51 (4): 451-461
  • Organizational warning systems: A probabilistic approach to optimal design IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Lakats, L. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 51 (2): 183-196
  • Bayesian analysis of launch vehicle success rates JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS Guikema, S. D., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 41 (1): 93-102
  • Modeling the effects of dispersion of design teams on system failure risk JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS Garber, R., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 41 (1): 60-68
  • Risk chair for concurrent design engineering: Satellite swarm illustration JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS Benjamin, J. L., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2004; 41 (1): 51-59
  • Risk Analysis for Monitoring and Diagnosis of Problems in the Automotive Industry CONVERGENCE 2004 (auto. industry), Detroit, MI. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • Organizational Warnings and System Safety: A Probabilistic Analysis IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management Lakats, M., L., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004; 51 (2): 183-196
  • Engineering Risk Analysis and Management Boeing Engineering Leadership Lecture Series, Boeing, Saint Louis, Missouri. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • Programmatic risk analysis for critical engineering systems under tight resource constraints OPERATIONS RESEARCH Dillon, R. L., Pate-Cornell, M. E., Guikema, S. D. 2003; 51 (3): 354-370
  • Assessment and Ranking of Terrorist Threat: a Risk-Analytic Approach Marine Board of the NRC, Washington D.C. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
  • Component choice for managing risk in engineered systems with generalized risk/cost functions RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY Guikema, S. D., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2002; 78 (3): 227-238
  • Assessment of the Effects of Biases on the Performance of a Portfolio of Missions International Journal of Aerospace Management Guikema, S., D., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002; 1 (4): 339-351
  • Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: a Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures Military Operations Research Paté-Cornell, M., E., Guikema, S., D. 2002; 7 (4)
  • Success factors and future challenges in the management of faster-better-cheaper projects: Lessons learned from NASA IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Pate-Cornell, M. E., Dillon, R. L. 2001; 48 (1): 25-35
  • Managing Technology in the Information Age: Stanford’s New Department of Management Science and Engineering International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, (IJTPM) Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001; 1 (2): 160-173
  • APRAM: An Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis Method International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management (IJTPM) Dillon, L., R., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001; 1 (1): 47-65
  • Management of Post-industrial Systems: Academic Challenges and the Stanford Experience International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, (IJTPM) Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001; 1 (2): 151-159
  • Safety and productivity trade-offs: managing nuclear reactor outages INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT Baron, M. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 2000; 19 (3-5): 420-438
  • Conditional uncertainty analysis and implications for decision making: The case of WIPP RISK ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E. 1999; 19 (5): 995-1002

    Abstract

    Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely--or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible--does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.

    View details for Web of Science ID 000083825000013

    View details for PubMedID 10765442

  • Risk assessment based on financial data: Market response to airline accidents RISK ANALYSIS Dillon, R. L., Johnson, B. E., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 1999; 19 (3): 473-486
  • Designing risk-management strategies for critical engineering systems IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Baron, M. M., Pate-Cornell, M. E. 1999; 46 (1): 87-100
  • Medical Application of Engineering Risk Analysis and Anesthesia Patient Risk Illustration American Journal of Therapeutics Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1999; 6 (5): 245-255
  • Dynamic risk management systems: Hybrid architecture and offshore platform illustration RISK ANALYSIS Pate-Cornell, M. E., Regan, P. J. 1998; 18 (4): 485-496
  • Anesthesia patient risk: A quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options RISK ANALYSIS PATECORNELL, M. E., Lakats, L. M., Murphy, D. M., Gaba, D. M. 1997; 17 (4): 511-523

    Abstract

    The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

    View details for Web of Science ID A1997XZ03600014

    View details for PubMedID 9323876

  • Normative Engineering Risk Management Systems Reliability Engineering and System Safety Regan, P., E., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1997; 57 (2): 159-169
  • Global Risk Management Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1996; 12: 239-255
  • Human and Management Factors in Probabilistic Risk Analysis: the SAM Approach and Observations from Recent Applications Reliability Engineering and System Safety Paté-Cornell, M., E., Murphy, D., M. 1996; 53: 115-126
  • Uncertainties in Risk Analysis: Six Levels of Treatment Reliability Engineering and System Safety Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1996; 54: 95-111
  • Uncertainties in Global Climate Change Estimates Climatic Change Murphy, M., D., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1996; 33: 145-149
  • The SAM Framework: A Systems Analysis Approach to Modeling the Effects of Management on Human Behavior in Risk Analysis Risk Analysis Murphy, D., M., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1996; 16 (4): 501-515
  • Probabilistic Interpretation of Command and Control Signals: Bayesian Updating of the Probability of Nuclear Attack Reliability Engineering and System Safety Paté-Cornell, M., E., Fischbeck, P., S. 1995; 47 (1): 27-36
  • A Challenge to the Compound Lottery Axiom: A Two-stage Normative Structure and Comparison to Other Theories Theory and Decision Paté-Cornell, M., E., Davis, D., B. 1994; 37 (3): 267-309
  • Risk Management for the Tiles of the Space Shuttle Interfaces Paté-Cornell, M., E., Fischbeck, P., S. 1994; 24: 64-86
  • Quantitative Safety Goals for Risk Management of Industrial Facilities Structural Safety Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1994; 13 (3): 145-157
  • Risk Management for Existing Facilities: A Global Approach to Numerical Safety Goals Applied Mechanics Reviews Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1993; 46 (5): 242-245
  • Learning from the Piper Alpha Accident: A Post-Mortem Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1993; 13 (2): 215-232
  • Risk Analysis and Risk Management for Offshore Platforms: Lessons from the Piper Alpha Accident Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1993; 115: 179-190
  • Management Errors and System Reliability: A Probabilistic Approach and Application to Offshore Platforms Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E., Bea, R., G. 1992; 12 (1): 1-18
  • Dynamic Optimization of Cash Flow Management Decisions: A Stochastic Model IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management Paté-Cornell, M., E., Tagaras, G., Eisenhardt, K., M. 1990; 37 (3): 203-212
  • Organizational Aspects of Engineering System Safety: The Case of Offshore Platforms Science Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1990; 250: 1210-1217
  • Organizational Control of System Reliability: A Probabilistic Approach and Application to Offshore Platforms Control-Theory and Advanced Technology Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1989; 5 (4): 549-568
  • Warnings of Malfunctions: The Decision to Inspect and Maintain Production Processes on Schedule or on Demand Management Science Paté-Cornell, M., E., Lee, H., L., Tagaras, G. 1987; 33 (10): 1277-1290
  • Warning Systems in Risk Management Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1986; 6 (2): 223-234
  • Probability and Uncertainty in Nuclear Safety Decisions Nuclear Engineering and Design Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1986; 93 (2 & 3): 319-327
  • Risk Cost for New Dams: Economic Analysis and Effects of Monitoring Water Resources Research Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1986; 22 (1): 5-14
  • Reduction of Fire Risks in Oil Refineries: Economic Analysis of Camera Monitoring Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1985; 5 (4): 277-288
  • Warning Systems and Defense Policy: A Reliability Model for the Command and Control of the U.S. Nuclear Forces Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E., Neu, J., E. 1985; 5 (2): 121-138
  • Costs and Benefits of Seismic Upgrading of Some Buildings in the Boston Area Earthquake Spectra Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1985; 1 (4): 721-740
  • Fault Trees vs. Event Trees in Reliability Analysis Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1984; 4 (3): 177-186
  • Acceptable Decision Processes and Acceptable Risks in Public Sector Regulations IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Paté, M., E. 1983; SMC-13 (3): 113-124
  • Analysis of Warning Systems: Application to Earthquake Prediction Earthquake Prediction Research Paté, M., E. 1982; 1 (2): 197-205
  • Risk of Dam Failure in Benefit-Cost Analysis Water Resources Research Baecher, G., B., Paté, M., E., Neufville, R., de 1980; 16 (3): 449-456
  • Public Policy Issues: Earthquake Engineering Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Paté, M., E., Shah, H., C. 1980; 70 (5): 1955-1968
  • Public Policy Issues: Earthquake Prediction Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Paté, M., E., Shah, H., C. 1979; 69 (5): 1533-1547

Books and Book Chapters


  • Review of the Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Study Committee on Risk Assessment and Management for Marine Systems (national Research Council, Marine Board). Paté-Cornell, M., E., Ahearne, J. Chair of the committee, co-author of several sections. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.. : 1
  • Games and Risk Analysis: Three examples of single and alternate moves Game theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Bier, V., Azaiez, M., N. Springer Pub, New York.. : 147-175
  • Report to the Department of Interior: Macondo Well-Deepwater Horizon Blowout: Lessons for Improving Offshore Drilling Safety (Committee member; co-author) National Academy of Engineering Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.. 2011: 1
  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment The Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Cochran, James, J. Wiley Pub. 2009: 1
  • Accident Precursors The Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Cochran, James, J. Wiley Pub. 2009: 1
  • Rationality and Imagination: The Engineering Risk Analysis Method and Some Applications Advances in Decision Analysis, Edward Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Miles, E., Winterfeldt, v. Cambridge University Press. 2007: 1
  • Probabilistic Risk Analysis vs. Decision Analysis: Similarities, Differences and Illustrations Uncertainty and Risk: Mental, Formal and Experimental Representations Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Abdellaoui, M., Luce, R., D., Machina, M. Springer Pub.. 2007: 223-242
  • On signals, response, and risk mitigation: a probabilistic approach to the detection and analysis of precursors In Accident Precursor Analysis and Management, Proceedings of the National Academy of Engineering Workshop on Precursors Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.. 2004: 45-59
  • Risk Costs for New Dams: Economic Analysis and Effects of Monitoring The Economics of Natural Hazards Paté-Cornell, M., E., Tagaras, G. edited by Kunreuther, H., Rose, A. The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, An Elgar Reference Collection, Northampton, MA.. 2004: 461-470
  • On Signals, Response, and Risk Mitigation: a Probabilistic Approach to Precursors’ Detection and Analysis Accident Precursor Analysis and Management,: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence, Proceedings of the NAE workshop on Precursors, Phimister Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press. 2004: 45-59
  • Assessment of the Benefits of Anesthesia Patient Risk Reduction Measures: a Systems Analysis Approach Based on Probability Handbook of Operations Research/Management Science Applications in Health Care Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Pierskalla, W., Sainfort, F., Brandeau, M. Kluwer Pub. 2002: 1
  • Global Risk Management Environmental Risk Planning and Management Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Turner, B. 2000: 1
  • Diagnostic anténatal: doutes À visage différent: l’alliance thérapeutique autour de l’enfant meurtri Paté-Cornell, M., E. Michel Serres and André Chancholle Eds.Hermann Pub., Paris, France. 1998: 1
  • Hybrid Dynamic Risk Management Systems: Concepts and Illustration Advances in Expert Systems for Management: Evaluation and Value in Knowledge-based Systems Paté-Cornell, M., E., Regan, P., J. edited by Grabowski, M., Wallace, W., A. JAI Press, Greenwich, CT. 1997; 2nd: 213-227
  • Affordable Cleanup? Opportunity for Cost Reduction in the Decontamination and Decommissioning of the Nation's Enrichment Facilities (co-author of various sections) Committee on the Decontamination and Decommissioning of Uranium Enrichments Plants: Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.. 1996: 1
  • Risk Analysis: Hazards and Zonation Improving the Safety of Marine Pipelines Paté-Cornell, M., E. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.. 1994: 1
  • Hybrid Systems for Failure Diagnosis, Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence: The Integration of Problem Solving Strategies Paté-Cornell, M., E., Lee, H. edited by Brown, D., E. Kluwer Academic Pub. 1990: 1
  • Risk Analysis and Relevance of Uncertainties in Nuclear Safety Decisions, Public Regulation: New Perspectives on Institutions and Policies Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Bailey, E., E. The MIT Press. 1987: 227-253
  • Aggregation of Opinions and Preferences in Decision Problems Low Probability-High Consequence Risk Analysis: Issues, Methods and Case Studies, (Proceedings of the 1982 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis held in Arlington, VA Paté-Cornell, M., E. Plenum Press, New York. 1984: 493-503
  • Discounting in Risk Analysis: Capital vs. Human Safety in Risk, Structural Engineering and Human Error Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Grigoriu, M. University of Waterloo. 1983: 1

Conference Proceedings


  • Probabilistic Analysis of the Effect of Resource Constraints on System Safety: Towing Failures During the Construction of Concrete Platforms Paté-Cornell, M., E., Rettedal, W.
  • Warning Systems for Engineering Projects Paté-Cornell, M., E.
  • Project Fox: near-earth objects impact risk Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • On risk analysis models for engineered systems using Bayesian methods Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • Counter-terrorism modeling: anticipating an attack Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • Recalibrating risks: reactions to Three-Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • On black swans and perfect storms Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • Decisions, risks, and games involving intelligent actors Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • An Engineering Risk Analysis perspective on “black swans” and “perfect storms: taking avoiding and managing the risks of rare events” Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • The illusion of classical validation for counter-terrorism models: verification and justification of variables and data Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • The tiger under the bed Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2013
  • Some remarks on uncertainty, model complexity and the risks of no risk analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Tsunami design criteria for the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: an inquiry driven by curiosity Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Risk Management in Game Situations: Principal-agent and adversarial examples Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • The risks of no risk analysis: The choice of a tsunami design criterion for the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Solar storms: Impact on cascading power grid failures A simple model and illustration Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Effects of sever space weather on cascading power failure: an illustrative model and policy implications Larrosa, C., Kaneshiro, L., Zhao, J., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Systems, risks and games analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Risk analysis in the systems engineering context a few examples and comments on Fukushima Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • A probabilistic framework for tactical warnings: inferring localized drug violence Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2012
  • Dynamics in Early Warning and Crisis Management with David Blum, Homeland Security and Advances in Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-stage Decisions for Operation of a Fractionated Satellite Mission Daniels, M., P., Tracey, B., Irvine, J., Schran, W., Pate-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • Are engineering companies too risk-averse? Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • Improving the service industry: a Stanford perspective Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • Space Weather: Impact on cascading power grid failures. A simple model and illustration Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • Risk Analysis: An Alternative to the “Stuff-happens” Philosophy (or words to that effect) Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • From Piper Alpha to Deepwater Horizon: some observations of risk management and regulation in the offshore oil industry Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • Games, Risks and National Security Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2011
  • Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept using Monte Carlo Simulation Blum, D., M., Tipphavong, T., L., Rentas, Y., He, X., Wang, Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
  • Risks and games: three models and illustrations Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
  • Fires on Offshore platforms: a risk analysis perspective on Piper Alpha Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
  • Taking, avoiding and managing risks: An engineering perspective, including experts, games, and a few lessons learned Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2010
  • Risks and Games: Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
  • Risks and Games: Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
  • Risks and games: intelligent actors and fallible systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
  • The Iterative Nature of Medical Device Design Shluzas, Lauren, A., Pietzsch, Jan, B., Paté-Cornell, M., Elisabeth, Yock, Paul, G., Linehan, John, H. 2009
  • Expert opinions in risk analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
  • Engineering Risk Analysis: Lessons Learned Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2009
  • Risk Analysis and Game Theory: Three Management and Policy Examples Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
  • Assessing Risks of Terrorist Threats Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
  • Some Progress in the Analysis of Intelligence Information: Where We Are and Possible Improvements Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2008
  • Evidence-based decisions: who says no? provided that the evidence is right Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2007
  • Medical Device Development Models Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2007
  • Engineering Risk Analysis: Influence of Human and Organizational Factors Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2006
  • Global Financial Analysis (GFA): a Strategic Model of Bankruptcies in the Insurance Industry Deleris, L., A., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2006
  • Managing Shortcuts in Engineering Systems and Their Safety Effects: A Management Science Perspective Garber, R., G., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2006
  • A Bayesian Approach to Iraq's Nuclear Program Intelligence Analysis: A Hypothetical Illustration McLaughlin, J., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
  • Engineering Risk Analysis for Pro-Active Risk Management Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
  • Prospective Evaluation of Management Alternatives in Policy Making: Anesthesia Patient Risk Example Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
  • Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2005
  • Risks of Terrorist Attacks: Probabilistic Assessment and Use of Intelligence Information Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • Risk Analysis vs. Decision Analysis: Methods and Applications Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • Risk Analysis for Monitoring and Diagnosis of Problems in the Automotive Industry Paté-Cornell, M., E., Han, B., Christopher 2004
  • A Framework for Probabilistic Assessment of New Medical Technologies Pietzsch, J., B., Paté-Cornell, M., E., Krummel, T., M. 2004
  • The role of probabilistic risk analysis and decision analysis in the development process of large complex systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • Engineering Systems and systems engineering in the MS&E department at Stanford University Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • Optimal Redundancy for Series Systems: a Value-maximizing Approach Garber, R., G., Hatfield, J., W., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • A ProbabilisticAnalysis of the “Infancy Problem” of Space Launch Vehicles Paté-Cornell, M., E., Guikema, S., D. 2004
  • Analyzing Losses from Hazard Exposures: a Conservative Probabilistic Estimate Using Supply Chain Risk Simulation Elkins, D., Deleris, L., A., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2004
  • On the tiles of the space shuttle: a risk analysis in 1990 and the Columbia accident of 2003 Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
  • Threat Assessment and Prioritization: a Risk Analysis Approach Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
  • A Probabilistic Approach to Precursors' Detection and Analysis in Risk Management Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
  • On the tiles of the Space Shuttle: estimating the risks and following up Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
  • Bayesian Analysis of Launch Vehicle Reliability Guikema, D., Seth, Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
  • Terrorism Threat Assessment and Prioritization: A Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2003
  • Optimization of System and Compoennt Reinforcement with Discrete Risk/Cost Functions Guikema, S., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
  • Quantitative Risk Analysis: Why, when, and how? Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
  • Principles of Quantitative Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
  • An Overarching Systems (Risk) Analysis Model for Threat Assessment. Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
  • Early Technology Assessment of New Medical Devices and Procedures: A Systems Analysis Approach Using Probabilistic Modeling Jan, B., Pietzsch, Krummel, T., M., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2002
  • Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Government Safety Decisions Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001
  • The danger of myopic conservatism in risk analysis: the problem of time allocation for the deep space network Guikema, S., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001
  • Programmatic Risk Analysis to Search for Life on Mars Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. 2001
  • Introducing a Risk Chair in Concurrent Design Engineering and Satellite Swarm Illustration Benjamin, J., L., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2001
  • Managing Technology in the Information Age: The New Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2000
  • Can Faster-Better-Cheaper Work? Challenges and Recommendations for the Management of Future Space Missions Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. 2000
  • Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis for Programs of Dependent Projects Involving Critical Systems, and Unmanned Space Mission Illustration Paté-Cornell, M., E., Dillon, R., L. edited by Kondo, S., Furuta, K. 2000
  • Greed and Ignorance: Motivations and Illustrations of the Quantification of Major Risks Paté-Cornell, M., E. 2000
  • Global Trends in the Management of Post-industrial Systems: Academic Challenges and the Stanford Experience Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1999
  • Airline Maintenance vs Flight Delays: Probabilistic Methods and Risk Management for Accidents That Have Not Happened Yet Paté-Cornell, M., E., Sachon, M. 1999
  • Challenges and Recommendations for the Management of Faster-Better-Cheaper Space Missions Dillon, R., L., Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1999
  • The Interdisciplinary Nature of Risk Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Waller, R., A., Covello, V., T. 1997
  • Patient Risk in Anesthesia and Benefits of Management Improvements Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1996
  • Advanced Risk Management System (ARMS): Cost Reduction through Better Safety Management Seridji, A., Paté-Cornell, M., E., Regan, P., J. 1996
  • The Treatment of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis: Management Relevance and Comparison Issues Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1996
  • Structure and Illustration of a Probabilistic Risk Analysis Model for Space Shuttle EVAs Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1995
  • Dynamic Risk Management Systems: Concepts and Illustration Paté-Cornell, M., E., Regan, P., J. 1995
  • Numerical Safety Goals for Engineering Risk Management Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1994
  • PRA As A Management Tool: Improving the Safety of the Tiles of the Space Shuttle Orbiter Paté-Cornell, M., E., Fischbeck, P., S. 1994
  • The Advanced Risk Management System - ARMS Seridji, A., Paté-Cornell, M., E., Regan, P. 1994
  • PRA As A Management Tool in the Design Phase Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1994
  • Subjective De-biasing of Data Sets: A Bayesian Approach Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1993
  • A Two-step Procedure for the Bayesian Updating of the Probability of Nuclear Attack on the United States Paté-Cornell, M., E., Fischbeck, P., S. 1992
  • The Advanced Risk Management System Project: A Resource-Constrained Normative Decision System Besse, P., Seridji, A., Paté-Cornell, M., E., Regan, P., J. 1992
  • Seismic Hazard Uncertainties in Rational Building Code Decisions Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1992
  • Rationality and Risk Uncertainties in Building Code Provisions Paté-Cornell, M., E., Fischbeck, P., S. 1991
  • Aversion to Epistemic Uncertainties in Rational Decision Making: Effects on Engineering Risk Management Paté-Cornell, M., E., Fischbeck, P., S. 1991
  • Reliability Management of Offshore Platforms: A Quantitative Approach to Organizational Factors Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1989
  • Organizational Extensions of PRA Models and NASA Application Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1989
  • Organizational Roots of System Failure: The Case of Offshore Platforms Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1989
  • Engineering Reliability: The Organizational Link Paté-Cornell, M., E., Seawell, J., Paul 1988
  • Costs and Benefits of Seismic Rehabilitation Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1988
  • Organizational Factors in Reliability Models Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1988
  • Risk-Based Monitoring of Industrial Systems Paté-Cornell, M., E., Lee, H., L. 1988
  • Risk Regulation for Nuclear Power Plants: Probability and Analytical Uncertainties Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1987
  • Risk in Defense Policy Decisions Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1987
  • Risk Uncertainties in Safety Decisions: Dealing with Soft Numbers Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Lind, N., C. 1987
  • Risk Uncertainties in Public Sector Safety Decisions: Assessment Methods and Management Implications Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1986
  • Fire Monitoring by Cameras in Oil Refineries: A Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1985
  • Warning Systems and Risk Reduction Paté-Cornell, M., E. edited by Whipple, C., Covello, V. 1985
  • Warning Systems: Application to the Reduction of Risk Costs for New Dams Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1984
  • Warning Systems: Response Models and Optimization Paté-Cornell, M., E., Benito-Claudio, C., P. 1984
  • Earthquake Prediction: The Costs of Crying Wolf Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1984
  • Warning Systems and Risk Reduction Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1983
  • Seismic Regulation for Some Existing Buildings in the Boston Area: Economic and Safety Analysis Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1983
  • Relevance of Risk Uncertainties in Regulated Decisions Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1983
  • Probabilistic Assessment of Warning Systems Paté-Cornell, M., E. 1983
  • The Decision to Predict Earthquakes and its Economic Implications Paté, M., E. 1981
  • Consistency of Standards Across the Different Economic Sectors Paté, M., E. 1981
  • Evaluation of the Economic Consequences of Natural Catastrophes Paté, M., E. 1980
  • Dam Failure in Benefit/Cost Analysis Baecher, G., B., Paté, M., E., Neufville, R., de 1980
  • Assessment and Mitigation of Earthquake Effects on Economic Production Paté, M., E. 1980
  • Acceptance of a Social Cost for Human Safety Paté, M., E. 1979
  • Public Policy in Earthquake Effects Mitigation Paté, M., E., Linvill, W., K., Shah, H., C. 1977