Qinqin Kong

All Publications

• Exceeding human heat tolerance in a warming, ageing world: a global projection modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary health Kong, Q., Vecellio, D. J., Huber, M., Cottle, R. M., Wolf, S. T., Leach, O. K., Fisher, K. G., Bendavid, E., Kenney, W. L. 2027: 101494

  Abstract

  In a warming world, understanding where, when, and to what extent human heat tolerance limits will be breached has become increasingly important. Previous projections applied heat limits for healthy young adults to all age groups, overlooking greater vulnerability in older ages. With global ageing, this oversight could seriously underestimate future heat risks. In this study, we aimed to examine the extent to which accounting for age-specific heat tolerance alters global projections of heat limit exceedances.We integrated experimentally derived heat limits for young (18-39 years), middle-aged (40-59 years), and older adults (≥60 years) with climate projections and age-stratified population projections to assess where and to what extent these limits could be breached across age groups under 1-4°C of global warming above preindustrial levels. The climate projections include bias-corrected projections of dry-bulb temperature and wet-bulb temperature from 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models under the shared socioeconomic pathway 5-8·5 scenario. We also highlighted countries with high exposure risk and low adaptive capacity.More widespread and imminent breaches of heat limits were estimated among older adult populations than among other populations. Older adults faced more frequent and spatially extensive exceedances under the 1·5°C global warming scenario relative to the preindustrial period than young adults did under 4°C. Using age-specific thresholds more than doubled the global population having 180 h or more of exceedance annually as compared with previous estimates. Older adults in south Asia and the Persian Gulf could face sustained, day-and-night exposure for three consecutive months at 3°C or more warming. We also identified 13 countries under 3°C global warming above the preindustrial period where poverty rates exceed 50% and either at least 10 million older adults or at least 80% of the older adult population experiences 180 h or more of heat limit exceedance annually. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Niger exceed both the absolute (10 million older adults) and proportional (80% of older adults) exposure thresholds.Our results suggest accounting for age stratified vulnerability, intolerable heat will be experienced at much larger scales and for longer durations, affecting far more people than previously estimated. By identifying who and where people are exposed, our findings can inform targeted heat action plans and guide resource allocation and response planning.US National Institutes of Health; US National Science Foundation; US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies; The Rockefeller Foundation.

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101494

  View details for PubMedID 42607702

• Divergent Heat Assessments Across Thermal Stress and Sensation Metrics EARTHS FUTURE Huang, X., Kong, Q., Huber, M., Nikolopoulou, M., Wang, Z., Li, P., Middel, A., Li, D., Matzarakis, A., Vanos, J. K., Song, J., Manoli, G., Pisello, A., Bou-Zeid, E. 2026; 14 (7)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2026EF008395

  View details for Web of Science ID 001830198900001

• Emergence of Uncompensable Heat Stress During Monsoon Season in India AGU ADVANCES Chuphal, D., Kong, Q., Huber, M., Mishra, V. 2026; 7 (3)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2025AV001945

  View details for Web of Science ID 001783814800001

• Local drivers in accelerating North American heat stress. Nature communications Prein, A. F., Kong, Q., Villarini, G., Done, J. M., Johnson, D. R., Wang, C., Huber, M. 2026

  Abstract

  Climate change increases heat extremes, threatening human health and economies. Using reanalysis data and climate simulations, we show that since the 1940s, population exposure to extreme heat (wet-bulb globe temperature  > 32 °C) has increased by 21% in the U.S. At 2 °C of global warming, exposure increases by 273% because heat-stress frequency increases exponentially with warming. Additionally, 2 °C warming leads to increased nighttime heat stress and decreased work capacity, indicating severe health and economic impacts. Heat stress rises fastest in high-latitude areas, while humid regions experience the greatest exposure increases. In northern regions, heatwave frequency increases with warming, whereas in southern regions, events merge into month-long heatwaves. Increasing temperatures and humidity, along with decreasing wind speed, influence regional heat stress, underscoring the need for tailored adaptation strategies. Overall, heat stress exposure is projected to escalate with additional warming, underscoring the need for mitigation and adaptation to protect vulnerable populations.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-026-72795-w

  View details for PubMedID 42156387

• Heat Stress Metrics for US Census Tracts 1998-2020. Scientific data Rahai, R., Kong, Q., Dogan, T., Evans, G. W., Wells, N. M. 2026

  Abstract

  Extreme heat exposure is a growing public health threat. Heat-health research has commonly used dry-bulb temperature to characterize heat exposure, partly due to limited availability of spatially explicit, public-health-aligned datasets that integrate multiple meteorological factors to quantify heat stress. We address this gap by providing hourly Heat Index (HI), Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for U.S. census tract boundaries across the contiguous United States from 1998-2020. Heat-stress fields were generated by integrating PRISM, ERA5-Land, and National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) products, with near-surface temperature and moisture fields reconstructed and ancillary variables interpolated to a harmonized 800-m grid. Heat-stress indices were computed using validated physical models and aggregated to census tracts using area- and population-weighted methods. Validation against station networks shows stable performance for sample year 2010 May-September, with air-temperature root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.70 °C, Heat Index RMSE of 3.20 °C, WBGT RMSE of 2.90 °C, and UTCI RMSE of 3.26 °C. These tract-level hourly heat-stress datasets enable direct linkage with public health data.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41597-026-06909-w

  View details for PubMedID 41741487

• A Global High-Resolution Comprehensive Heat Indices Dataset from 1950 to 2024. Scientific data Malik, A., Masabathini, S., Shaikh, M. A., Kong, Q., Usman, M., Hari Prasad, D., Hoteit, I. 2026

  Abstract

  Heatwaves are becoming more intense and frequent as global temperatures rise, affecting vulnerable populations, particularly in low-income communities. Addressing the impacts of heatwaves requires high-resolution data to assess their influence on labour productivity, public health, and climate risk. We introduce the Comprehensive Heat Indices (CHI) dataset, a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) hourly dataset from 1950 to 2024, derived from the ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalyses. The CHI dataset encompasses thirteen heat stress indices, including wet-bulb temperature, universal thermal climate index, mean radiant temperature, wind chill, and lethal heat stress index (Ls). Thresholds for Ls are empirically linked to mortality, enabling the identification of life-threatening heat events. Ls is sensitive to soil moisture variability, improving assessments in agricultural regions. The CHI dataset supports indoor and outdoor applications and is sensitive to humidity, radiation, and wind. Covering the global land area from 60°S to 75°N and 180°W to 180°E, it provides a unique, long-term perspective on spatial and temporal trends in heat stress, which are critical for climate impact research and adaptation planning.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41597-025-06519-y

  View details for PubMedID 41540085

• Age and livability in a hotter climate. EBioMedicine Kenney, W. L., Cottle, R. M., Vecellio, D. J., Fisher, K. G., Leach, O. K., Kong, Q., Wolf, S. T. 2025; 122: 106020

  Abstract

  Men and women over the age of 65 years comprise the most vulnerable population to increasing heat events associated with climate change. One measure of risk involves the physiological determination of the boundary conditions between compensable (thermal balance possible) and uncompensable (continually rising core temperatures) heat strain. The PSU H.E.A.T. (Human Environmental Age Thresholds) Project conducted 273 human subject-based environmental chamber experiments designed to establish critical environmental limits for a cohort of men and women ranging in age from 65 to 92 yrs, both at rest and at a metabolic rate reflecting activities of daily living (i.e., "livability"). Each critical environmental limit comprises a combination of ambient temperature and relative humidity that reflects the upper extremes of livability for older adults. This review documents and provides an overview of the procedures and seminal findings from the project specific to adults over the age of 65 yrs. Predicted changes in the over-65-year-old population in the United States and the consequent impact of climate change projections on future livability are also presented.

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ebiom.2025.106020

  View details for PubMedID 41232236

• Migrant Laborers in India Face Increased Heat Stress Driven by Climate Warming and ENSO Variability EARTHS FUTURE Mishra, V., Chuphal, D., Kong, Q., Raymond, C., Parsons, L., Kumar, R., Tumbe, C., Huber, M. 2025; 13 (11)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2025EF006167

  View details for Web of Science ID 001605906700001

• Spatial Patterns of Historical Changes in Human Heat Stress Disagree Across Metrics GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Kong, Q., Jing, R., Raymond, C., Tuholske, C., Heft-Neal, S., Wagner, Z., Wang, Z., Zimmer, A., Huber, M., Bendavid, E. 2025; 52 (20)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2025GL117966

  View details for Web of Science ID 001598643700001

• Heat stress causes economic and welfare disparities across agroecological zones in Burkina Faso. Communications earth & environment Houessou, M. A., Elnour, Z., Kong, Q., Grethe, H., Huber, M. 2025; 6 (1): 744

  Abstract

  Increased warming due to climate change can induce heat stress in humans and adversely affect labour productivity due to heat-related morbidity. Here, we use a simulation model to examine the effects of heat stress, through declined labour capacity under +1.5 °C and 3.5 °C warming scenarios on agriculture and welfare across the three agroecological zones (Sudanian, Sudano-Sahelian, and Sahelian) in Burkina Faso. In the two scenarios, domestic production declines, with outdoor labour-intensive sectors such as cropping and mining being the most affected, reducing gross domestic product by 9% and 20%, respectively. All households lose welfare in all scenarios except non-poor households in the +1.5 °C scenario. Across zones, crop production declines strongest in the crop-producing Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian zones. In contrast, relative welfare losses are strongest for households in the Sahelian zone. The study highlights the most vulnerable sectors, household groups, and zones requiring urgent attention in heat stress adaptation and mitigation policies.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s43247-025-02650-1

  View details for PubMedID 40937187

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12420375

• A Linear Sensitivity Framework to Understand the Drivers of the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature Changes JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES Kong, Q., Huber, M. 2025; 130 (5)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2024JD042195

  View details for Web of Science ID 001432871100001

• El Niño Enhances Exposure to Humid Heat Extremes With Regionally Varying Impacts During Eastern Versus Central Pacific Events GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Menzo, Z. M., Karamperidou, C., Kong, Q., Huber, M. 2025; 52 (4)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2024GL112387

  View details for Web of Science ID 001420419200001

• A global high-resolution and bias-corrected dataset of CMIP6 projected heat stress metrics SCIENTIFIC DATA Kong, Q., Huber, M. 2025; 12 (1): 246

  Abstract

  Increasing heat stress with climate change will threaten human health and cause broad social and economic impacts. The evaluation of such impacts depends on a reliable dataset of heat stress projection. Here we present a global dataset of the future projection of dry-bulb, wet-bulb and wet-bulb globe temperature under 1-4°C of global warming levels compared with the preindustrial era using output from 16 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). The dataset was bias-corrected against ERA5 reanalysis by adding the GCM-simulated climate change signal onto ERA5 baseline (1950-1976) at 3-hourly frequency. The resulting datasets are provided at fine spatial (0.25° × 0.25°) and temporal (3-hourly) resolution. We validate the bias-correction approach and demonstrate that it substantially improves the GCMs' ability to reproduce both the annual average and entire range of quantiles for all metrics within an ERA5 reference climate state. We expect the dataset to benefit future work on estimating projected changes in both mean and extreme heat stress and assessing consequential health and social-economic impacts.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41597-025-04527-6

  View details for Web of Science ID 001421222600012

  View details for PubMedID 39939321

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC11821900

• Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Matthews, T., Raymond, C., Foster, J., Baldwin, J. W., Ivanovich, C., Kong, Q., Kinney, P., Horton, R. M. 2025

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s43017-024-00635-w

  View details for Web of Science ID 001414216900001

• A New, Zero-Iteration Analytic Implementation of Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature: Development, Validation, and Comparison With Other Methods GEOHEALTH Kong, Q., Huber, M. 2024; 8 (10): e2024GH001068

  Abstract

  Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)-a standard measure for workplace heat stress regulation-incorporates the complex, nonlinear interaction among temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. This complexity requires WBGT to be calculated iteratively following the recommended approach developed by Liljegren and colleagues. The need for iteration has limited the wide application of Liljegren's approach, and stimulated various simplified WBGT approximations that do not require iteration but are potentially seriously biased. By carefully examining the self-nonlinearities in Liljegren's model, we develop a zero-iteration analytic approximation of WBGT while maintaining sufficient accuracy and the physical basis of the original model. The new approximation slightly deviates from Liljegren's full model-by less than 1°C in 99% cases over 93% of global land area. The annual mean and 75%-99% percentiles of WBGT are also well represented with biases within ± 0.5 °C globally. This approximation is clearly more accurate than other commonly used WBGT approximations. Physical intuition can be developed on the processes controlling WBGT variations from an energy balance perspective. This may provide a basis for applying WBGT to understanding the physical control of heat stress.

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2024GH001068

  View details for Web of Science ID 001383292800001

  View details for PubMedID 39350796

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC11439757

• Regimes of Soil Moisture-Wet-Bulb Temperature Coupling with Relevance to Moist Heat Stress JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Kong, Q., Huber, M. 2023; 36 (22): 7925-7942

  View details for DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0132.1

  View details for Web of Science ID 001092687500001

• Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Vecellio, D. J., Kong, Q., Kenney, W., Huber, M. 2023; 120 (42): e2305427120

  Abstract

  As heatwaves become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting due to climate change, the question of breaching thermal limits becomes pressing. A wet-bulb temperature (Tw) of 35 °C has been proposed as a theoretical upper limit on human abilities to biologically thermoregulate. But, recent-empirical-research using human subjects found a significantly lower maximum Tw at which thermoregulation is possible even with minimal metabolic activity. Projecting future exposure to this empirical critical environmental limit has not been done. Here, using this more accurate threshold and the latest coupled climate model results, we quantify exposure to dangerous, potentially lethal heat for future climates at various global warming levels. We find that humanity is more vulnerable to moist heat stress than previously proposed because of these lower thermal limits. Still, limiting warming to under 2 °C nearly eliminates exposure and risk of widespread uncompensable moist heatwaves as a sharp rise in exposure occurs at 3 °C of warming. Parts of the Middle East and the Indus River Valley experience brief exceedances with only 1.5 °C warming. More widespread, but brief, dangerous heat stress occurs in a +2 °C climate, including in eastern China and sub-Saharan Africa, while the US Midwest emerges as a moist heat stress hotspot in a +3 °C climate. In the future, moist heat extremes will lie outside the bounds of past human experience and beyond current heat mitigation strategies for billions of people. While some physiological adaptation from the thresholds described here is possible, additional behavioral, cultural, and technical adaptation will be required to maintain healthy lifestyles.

  View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2305427120

  View details for Web of Science ID 001086670200002

  View details for PubMedID 37812703

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC10589700

• The Poverty Impacts of Labor Heat Stress in West Africa Under a Warming Climate EARTHS FUTURE Saeed, W., Haqiqi, Kong, Q., Huber, M., Buzan, J. R., Chonabayashi, S., Motohashi, K., Hertel, T. W. 2022; 10 (11)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2022EF002777

  View details for Web of Science ID 000879383700001

• Explicit Calculations of Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature Compared With Approximations and Why It Matters for Labor Productivity EARTHS FUTURE Kong, Q., Huber, M. 2022; 10 (3)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2021EF002334

  View details for Web of Science ID 000777487800004

• Increases in summertime concurrent drought and heatwave in Eastern China WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES Kong, Q., Guerreiro, S. B., Blenkinsop, S., Li, X., Fowler, H. J. 2020; 28

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100242

  View details for Web of Science ID 000535923400003

• Climate change and summer thermal comfort in China THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY Kong, Q., Zheng, J., Fowler, H. J., Ge, Q., Xi, J. 2019; 137 (1-2): 1077-1088

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s00704-018-2648-5

  View details for Web of Science ID 000475737500073

• Spatial and temporal analysis of outdoor human thermal comfort during heat and cold waves in Iran WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES Roshan, G., Ghanghermeh, A., Kong, Q. 2018; 19: 58-67

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.005

  View details for Web of Science ID 000437361600007

• Human-biometeorological assessment of increasing summertime extreme heat events in Shanghai, China during 1973-2015 THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY Kong, Q., Ge, Q., Xi, J., Zheng, J. 2017; 130 (3-4): 1055-1064

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s00704-016-1933-4

  View details for Web of Science ID 000412739700027

• Application of UTCI in China from tourism perspective THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY Ge, Q., Kong, Q., Xi, J., Zheng, J. 2017; 128 (3-4): 551-561

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s00704-016-1731-z

  View details for Web of Science ID 000399702200005

• Spatial morphology evolution of rural settlements induced by tourism A comparative study of three villages in Yesanpo tourism area, China JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES Xi Jianchao, Wang Xinge, Kong Qinqin, Zhang Nan 2015; 25 (4): 497-511

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s11442-015-1182-y

  View details for Web of Science ID 000349965700008