Robert Hall
Robert and Carole McNeil Endowed Professor of Economics and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Bio
I’m an applied economist with interests in employment, technology, competition, and economic policy in the aggregate economy and in particular markets.
I served as President of the American Economic Association for the year 2010. I presented the Ely Lecture to the Association in 2001 and served as Vice President in 2005. I’m a member of the National Academy of Sciences, Distinguished Fellow of the AEA, and fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society, and the Society of Labor Economists.
Along with my Hoover Institution colleague Alvin Rabushka, I developed a framework for equitable and efficient consumption taxation. Our article in the Wall Street Journal in December 1981 was the starting point for an upsurge of interest in consumption taxation. Our book, The Flat Tax (free download from the Hoover Institution Press) spells out the proposal. We were recognized in Money magazine’s Hall of Fame for our contributions to financial innovation.
Marc Lieberman and I have a college textbook, Economics: Principles and Applications, now in its sixth edition.
I also served as director of the research program on economic fluctuations and growth of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1977 through 2013. I continue to serve as chairman of the Bureau's Committee on Business Cycle Dating, which maintains the semiofficial chronology of the U.S. business cycle.
I have advised a number of government agencies on national economic policy, including the Justice Department, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Congressional Budget Office, where I serve on the Advisory Committee. I served on the National Presidential Advisory Committee on Productivity. I have testified on numerous occasions before congressional committees concerning national economic policy.
Before coming to Stanford’s Hoover Institution and the Department of Economics in 1978, I taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and at the University of California, Berkeley. I was born in Palo Alto, attended school there and in Los Angeles, received my B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley, and my Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
In a 1976 paper, I introduced the distinction between fresh-water and salt-water economists. Bloggers using these terms are asked to contribute $1 to a fund that sends graduate students to MIT for one year and to the University of Minnesota for a second year.
I am married to economist Susan Woodward, chairman of Sand Hill Econometrics, and live in Menlo Park, California. Visit our blog for pictures and information about our visits to places with villages, ruins, and good food.
Administrative Appointments
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Distinguished Fellow, American Economic Association (2011 - Present)
Boards, Advisory Committees, Professional Organizations
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Member, National Academy of Sciences (2004)
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President, American Economic Association (2010 - 2010)
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Vice President, American Economic Association (2005 - 2005)
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Ely Lecturer, American Economic Association (2001 - 2001)
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Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences (1985 - Present)
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Fellow, Econometric Society (1973 - Present)
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Chair, Business Cycle Chronology Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research (1977)
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Director, Research Program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research (1977 - 2013)
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Member, Advisory Committee, Congressional Budget Office (1993)
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Member, Oversight Panel for Economics, National Science Foundation (1989 - 1989)
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Member, Advisory Panel for Economics (1970 - 1972)
Professional Education
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PhD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Economics
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BA, University of California, Berkeley, Economics
2024-25 Courses
- Macroeconomic Seminar
ECON 310 (Aut, Win, Spr) -
Independent Studies (4)
- Directed Reading
ECON 139D (Aut, Win, Spr) - Directed Reading
ECON 239D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Honors Thesis Research
ECON 199D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Practical Training
ECON 299 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
- Directed Reading
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Prior Year Courses
2023-24 Courses
- Macroeconomic Seminar
ECON 310 (Aut, Win, Spr)
2022-23 Courses
- Macroeconomic Workshop
ECON 310 (Aut, Win, Spr)
2021-22 Courses
- Macroeconomic Workshop
ECON 310 (Aut, Win, Spr)
- Macroeconomic Seminar
All Publications
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Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
2018; 32 (1): 121–34
View details for DOI 10.1257/jep.32.1.121
View details for Web of Science ID 000423686400006
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Wage Dispersion and Search Behavior: The Importance of Nonwage Job Values
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
2018; 126 (4): 1594–1637
View details for DOI 10.1086/697739
View details for Web of Science ID 000440681600007
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Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
2018; 10 (1): 1–32
View details for DOI 10.1257/mac.20170061
View details for Web of Science ID 000419330900001
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High Discounts and High Unemployment
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2017; 107 (2): 305-330
View details for DOI 10.1257/aer.20141297
View details for Web of Science ID 000393993600001
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The Anatomy of Stagnation in a Modern Economy
ECONOMICA
2017; 84 (333): 1-15
View details for DOI 10.1111/ecca.12210
View details for Web of Science ID 000396373300001
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Search-and-matching analysis of high unemployment caused by the zero lower bound
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
2016; 19: 210-217
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.red.2015.12.003
View details for Web of Science ID 000371370800011
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Fiscal Stability of High- Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions
GERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2014; 15 (1): 4-22
View details for DOI 10.1111/geer.12025
View details for Web of Science ID 000331131600002
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Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis
NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL
2014; 29 (1): 71-128
View details for DOI 10.1086/680584
View details for Web of Science ID 000363786400006
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Financial Frictions
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING
2013; 9 (2): 155-163
View details for Web of Science ID 000328547300009
- Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions German Economic Review 2013; 15 (1): 4–22
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Diagnosing Consumer Confusion and Sub-Optimal Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2012; 102 (7): 3249-3276
View details for DOI 10.1257/aer.102.7.3249
View details for Web of Science ID 000312093000005
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Evidence on the Incidence of Wage Posting, Wage Bargaining, and On-the-Job Search
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
2012; 4 (4): 56-67
View details for DOI 10.1257/mac.4.4.56
View details for Web of Science ID 000309520600003
- Economics: Principles and Applications 2012
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The High Sensitivity of Economic Activity to Financial Frictions
ECONOMIC JOURNAL
2011; 121 (552): 351-378
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02421.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000290540200002
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The Long Slump
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2011; 101 (2): 431-469
View details for DOI 10.1257/aer.101.2.431
View details for Web of Science ID 000289405800001
- Reference Guide on Estimation of Economic Losses in Damages Awards Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence 2011
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Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
2010; 24 (4): 3-20
View details for DOI 10.1257/jep.24.4.3
View details for Web of Science ID 000284159400001
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Fiscal stimulus
DAEDALUS
2010; 139 (4): 83-94
View details for Web of Science ID 000283385100009
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The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2010; 100 (3): 1163-1194
View details for DOI 10.1257/aer.100.3.1163
View details for Web of Science ID 000279253100018
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Consumer Confusion in the Mortgage Market: Evidence of Less than a Perfectly Transparent and Competitive Market
122nd Annual Meeting of the American-Economics-Association
AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC. 2010: 511–15
View details for DOI 10.1257/aer.100.2.511
View details for Web of Science ID 000278389300099
- Forward-Looking Decision Making: Dynamic-Programming Models Applied to Health, Risk, Employment, and Financial Stability Princeton University Press. 2010
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By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
2009: 183-249
View details for Web of Science ID 000276644600005
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Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of Labor
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
2009; 117 (2): 281-323
View details for Web of Science ID 000265590600004
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The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2008; 98 (4): 1653-1674
View details for DOI 10.1257/aer.98.4.1653
View details for Web of Science ID 000259978600022
- Potential Competition, Limit Pricing, and Price Elevation from Exclusionary Conduct Issues in Competition Law and Policy 2008: 433-448
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Lectures on antitrust economics (Book Review)
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE
2007; 45 (4): 1066-1070
View details for Web of Science ID 000252751500025
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The value of life and the rise in health spending
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
2007; 122 (1): 39-72
View details for Web of Science ID 000244180000002
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How much do we understand about the modem recession?
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
2007: 13-30
View details for Web of Science ID 000253276000003
- Cyclical Movements along the Labor Supply Function Labor Supply in the New Century edited by Bradbury, K., Foote, C., Triest, R. 2007: 241–264
- The Macroeconomy and Determinants of the Earnings of Less-Skilled Workers Working and Poor: How Economic and Policy Changes Are Affecting Low-Wage Workers edited by Blank, R., Danziger, S., Schoeni, R. 2006: 89–112
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Employment efficiency and sticky wages: Evidence from flows in the labor market
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
2005; 87 (3): 397-407
View details for Web of Science ID 000231001000001
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Employment fluctuations with equilibrium wage stickiness
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2005; 95 (1): 50-65
View details for Web of Science ID 000228841600003
- Macroeconomics W.W. Norton. 2005
- Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations Proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium 2005: 133–79
- Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy over the Past Fifty Years NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005: 101-137
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Measuring factor adjustment costs
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
2004; 119 (3): 899-927
View details for Web of Science ID 000223100200004
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Modern theory of unemployment fluctuations: Empirics and policy applications
115th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association
AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC. 2003: 145–50
View details for Web of Science ID 000183357400023
- Digital Dealing: How eMarkets are Transforming the Economy Norton. 2002
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The stock market and capital accumulation
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
2001; 91 (5): 1185-1202
View details for Web of Science ID 000172772800001
- Struggling to Understand the Stock Market AER Papers and Proceedings 2001: 1–11
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Toward a quantification of the effects of Microsoft's conduct
112th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association
AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC. 2000: 188–91
View details for Web of Science ID 000087512600038
- Reorganization Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 2000: 1–22
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Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
1999; 114 (1): 83-116
View details for Web of Science ID 000079557200003
- Labor-Market Frictions and Employment Fluctuations Handbook of Macroeconomics edited by Taylor, J., Woodford, M. 1999: 1137–1170
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Macroeconomic fluctuations and the allocation of time
JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
1997; 15 (1): S223-S250
View details for Web of Science ID A1997WM21700010
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Productivity and the density of economic activity
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
1996; 86 (1): 54-70
View details for Web of Science ID A1996UB51800003
- The Flat Tax Hoover Press. 1995
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LOST JOBS
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
1995: 221-256
View details for Web of Science ID A1995RM49000006
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THE VALUE AND PERFORMANCE OF UNITED-STATES CORPORATIONS
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
1993: 1-49
View details for Web of Science ID A1993LR03400001
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SUBSTITUTION OVER TIME IN CONSUMPTION AND WORK
CONF ON VALUE AND CAPITAL : 50 YEARS LATER
NEW YORK UNIV PRESS. 1991: 239–267
View details for Web of Science ID A1991BS87U00017
- Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and Employment Volatility NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991; 7 (1): 17-46
- Booms and Recessions in a Noisy Economy Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut. 1991
- The Rational Consumer: Theory and Evidence MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. 1990
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INVARIANCE PROPERTIES OF SOLOW PRODUCTIVITY RESIDUAL
CONF ON GROWTH, PRODUCTIVITY AND UNEMPLOYMENT, IN HONOR OF BOB SOLOWS 65TH BIRTHDAY
M I T PRESS. 1990: 71–112
View details for Web of Science ID A1990BT40M00005
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INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION IN CONSUMPTION
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
1988; 96 (2): 339-357
View details for Web of Science ID A1988M846100006
- The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry JPE 1988; 96 (5): 921-947
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THE EXCESS SENSITIVITY OF LAYOFFS AND QUITS TO DEMAND
JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
1984; 2 (2): 233-257
View details for Web of Science ID A1984SW86200004
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OPTIMAL FIDUCIARY MONETARY SYSTEMS
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
1983; 12 (1): 33-50
View details for Web of Science ID A1983RD53900004
- Low Tax, Simple Tax, Flat Tax McGraw-Hill. 1983
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THE SENSITIVITY OF CONSUMPTION TO TRANSITORY INCOME - ESTIMATES FROM PANEL DATA ON HOUSEHOLDS
ECONOMETRICA
1982; 50 (2): 461-481
View details for Web of Science ID A1982NE73800008
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THE IMPORTANCE OF LIFETIME JOBS IN THE UNITED-STATES-ECONOMY
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
1982; 72 (4): 716-724
View details for Web of Science ID A1982PE30900007
- Inflation: Causes and Effects edited by Hall, R. E. University of Chicago Press. 1982
- Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1980: 7–33
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THEORY OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE DURATION OF EMPLOYMENT
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
1979; 5 (2): 153-169
View details for Web of Science ID A1979GZ07500001
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STOCHASTIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE LIFE CYCLE PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS - THEORY AND EVIDENCE
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
1978; 86 (6): 971-987
View details for Web of Science ID A1978GD86300001
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ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE IN NONLINEAR STRUCTURAL MODELS
ANNALS OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL MEASUREMENT
1974; 3 (4): 653-665
View details for Web of Science ID A1974V263900005
- Wages, Income, and Hours of Work in the U.S. Labor Force Income Maintenance and Labor Supply: Econometric Studies edited by Watts, H., Cain, G. Rand McNally. 1973: 102–162
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SPECIFICATION OF TECHNOLOGY WITH SEVERAL KINDS OF OUTPUT
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
1973; 81 (4): 878-892
View details for Web of Science ID A1973Q521200003
- Turnover in the Labor Force BPEA 1972; 3: 709-756
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DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN AN ECONOMY WITH FORESIGHT
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
1971; 38 (114): 229-244
View details for Web of Science ID A1971Y091700005
- The Measurement of Quality Change from Vintage Price Data Price Indexes and Quality Change edited by Griliches, Z. Harvard University Press. 1971: 240–271
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WHY IS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SO HIGH AT FULL EMPLOYMENT
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
1970: 369-410
View details for Web of Science ID A1970Y213000002
- Technical Change and Capital from the Point of View of the Dual Review of Economic Studies 1968; 35 (101): 35-46
- Consumption Taxes versus Income Taxes: Implications for Economic Growth Proceedings of the 61st Annual Conference on Taxation 1968: 125–145
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TAX POLICY AND INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
1967; 57 (3): 391-414
View details for Web of Science ID 000207930400002