All Publications

  • Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR Grossmann, I., Rotella, A. A., Hutcherson, C., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. W., Achter, S. K., Dhami, M., Guo, X., Kara-Yakoubian, M. R., Mandel, D., Raes, L., Tay, L., Vie, A., Wagner, L., Adamkovic, M., Arami, A., Arriaga, P., Bandara, K., Banik, G., Bartos, F., Baskin, E., Bergmeir, C., Bialek, M. K., Borsting, C. T., Browne, D. M., Caruso, E., Chen, R., Chie, B. J., Chopik, W. N., Collins, R., Cong, C. G., Conway, L., Davis, M. V., Day, M. A., Dhaliwal, N. D., Durham, J., Dziekan, M. T., Elbaek, C., Shuman, E., Fabrykant, M., Firat, M. T., Fong, G. A., Frimer, J. M., Gallegos, J. B., Goldberg, S., Gollwitzer, A., Goyal, J., Graf-Vlachy, L. D., Gronlund, S., Hafenbraedl, S., Hartanto, A. J., Hirshberg, M. J., Hornsey, M., Howe, P. L., Izadi, A., Jaeger, B., Kacmar, P., Kim, Y., Krenzler, R. G., Lannin, D., Lin, H., Lou, N., Lua, V. W., Lukaszewski, A. L., Ly, A. R., Madan, C., Maier, M. M., Majeed, N. S., March, D. A., Marsh, A., Misiak, M., Myrseth, K. M., Napan, J., Nicholas, J., Nikolopoulos, K., Otterbring, T., Paruzel-Czachura, M., Pauer, S., Protzko, J., Raffaelli, Q., Ropovik, I., Ross, R. M., Roth, Y., Roysamb, E., Schnabel, L., Schuetz, A., Seifert, M., Sevincer, A. T., Sherman, G. T., Simonsson, O., Sung, M., Tai, C., Talhelm, T., Teachman, B. A., Tetlock, P. E., Thomakos, D., Tse, D. K., Twardus, O. J., Tybur, J. M., Ungar, L., Vandermeulen, D., Vaughan Williams, L., Vosgerichian, H. A., Wang, Q., Wang, K., Whiting, M. E., Wollbrant, C. E., Yang, T., Yogeeswaran, K., Yoon, S., Alves, V. R., Andrews-Hanna, J. R., Bloom, P. A., Boyles, A., Charis, L., Choi, M., Darling-Hammond, S., Ferguson, Z. E., Kaiser, C. R., Karg, S. T., Ortega, A., Mahoney, L., Marsh, M. S., Martinie, M. C., Michaels, E. K., Millroth, P., Naqvi, J. B., Ng, W., Rutledge, R. B., Slattery, P., Smiley, A. H., Strijbis, O., Sznycer, D., Tsukayama, E., van Loon, A., Voelkel, J. G., Wienk, M. A., Wilkening, T. 2023


    How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000931761000002

    View details for PubMedID 36759585

  • A Daily Diary Investigation of the Fear of Missing Out and Diminishing Daily Emotional Well-Being: The Moderating Role of Cognitive Reappraisal PSYCHOLOGICAL REPORTS Hartanto, A., Wong, J., Lua, V. Q., Tng, G. Q., Kasturiratna, K., Majeed, N. M. 2022: 332941221135476


    With modern societies becoming ever-increasingly interconnected due to technology and media, we have gained unprecedented access and exposure to other people's lives. This has resulted in a greater desire to constantly be socially connected with the activities of others, or the fear of missing out (FoMO). While much of the present available research has established the association between FoMO and diminished emotional well-being, little has been done to identify protective factors that can help one cope with the negative psychological consequences of FoMO. Utilizing data from a 7-day diary study of a large sample of young adults (N = 261), the current study aimed to examine the moderating role of cognitive reappraisal in attenuating diminished emotional well-being associated with FoMO. Multilevel modeling showed that cognitive reappraisal attenuated the day-to-day within-person associations between daily FoMO and indicators of daily emotional well-being such as negative affectivity, anxiety, and depressive symptoms.

    View details for DOI 10.1177/00332941221135476

    View details for Web of Science ID 000873214300001

    View details for PubMedID 36282043

  • Does trait self-esteem serve as a protective factor in maintaining daily affective well-being? Multilevel analyses of daily diary studies in the US and Singapore PERSONALITY AND INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES Ng, M. S., Lua, V. Q., Majeed, N. M., Hartanto, A. 2022; 198
  • Help-Seeking Tendencies and Subjective Well-Being: A Cross-Cultural Comparison of the United States and Japan SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY QUARTERLY Lua, V. Q., Majeed, N. M., Hartanto, A., Leung, A. 2022; 85 (2): 164-186
  • A daily within-person investigation on the link between social expectancies to be busy and emotional wellbeing: the moderating role of emotional complexity acceptance COGNITION & EMOTION Lua, V. Q., Majeed, N. M., Leung, A., Hartanto, A. 2022; 36 (4): 773-780


    With postmodern societies placing a strong emphasis on making full use of one's time, it is increasingly common to extol busy individuals as more achieving. In this context, although feeling a social expectation to be busy might imply that individuals are regarded as competent and desirable, its accompanying stressors may also detrimentally impact their mental health. Utilising data from a seven-day diary study, the current research examined the relationship between people's daily perceived pressure to be busy and their daily emotional wellbeing. Multilevel modelling revealed that daily social pressure to be busy was a significant predictor of daily negative affect, anxiety, and depressive symptoms at the within-person level. Of import, individuals' trait emotional complexity acceptance moderated these relationships, with those lower on emotional complexity acceptance reporting significantly higher negative affect, anxiety, and depressive symptoms on days they felt greater social pressure to be busy. These effects were not observed among those higher on emotional complexity acceptance. Together, the current findings suggest that social pressure to feel busy is generally related to poorer daily emotional wellbeing, and that those with higher trait emotional complexity acceptance have an advantage of maintaining their emotional wellbeing in the face of such a social pressure.

    View details for DOI 10.1080/02699931.2022.2054778

    View details for Web of Science ID 000773309100001

    View details for PubMedID 35333691

  • A critical review on the moderating role of contextual factors in the associations between video gaming and well-being COMPUTERS IN HUMAN BEHAVIOR REPORTS Hartanto, A., Lua, V. Q., Quek, F. X., Yong, J. C., Ng, M. S. 2021; 4