Walter Falcon

All Publications

• Decentralization and the environment: Assessing smallholder oil palm development in Indonesia Ambio Naylor, R. L., Higgins, M. M., Edwards, R. B., Falcon, W. P. 2019: 1195–1208

  Abstract

  Indonesia's oil palm expansion during the last two decades has resulted in widespread environmental and health damages through land clearing by fire and peat conversion, but it has also contributed to rural poverty alleviation. In this paper, we examine the role that decentralization has played in the process of Indonesia's oil palm development, particularly among independent smallholder producers. We use primary survey information, along with government documents and statistics, to analyze the institutional dynamics underpinning the sector's impacts on economic development and the environment. Our analysis focuses on revenue-sharing agreements between district and central governments, district splitting, land title authority, and accountability at individual levels of government. We then assess the role of Indonesia's Village Law of 2014 in promoting rural development and land clearing by fire. We conclude that both environmental conditionality and positive financial incentives are needed within the Village Law to enhance rural development while minimizing environmental damages.

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s13280-018-1135-7

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC6722158

• Field Notes from an Iowa Farm Farming Magazine Falcon , W. P. 2012; 12 (17)
• The Global Costs of American Ethanol The American Interest Falcon, W. P., Naylor , R. L. 2011; 7 (2): 66-76
• Food Security in an Era of Economic Volatility POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2010; 36 (4): 693-?

  Abstract

  This article analyzes international commodity price movements, assesses food policies in response to price fluctuations, and explores the food security implications of price volatility on low-income groups. It focuses specifically on measurements, causes, and consequences of recent food price trends, variability around those trends, and price spikes. Combining these three components of price dynamics shows that the variation in real prices post-2000 was substantially greater than that in the 1980s and 1990s, and was approximately equal to the extreme volatility in commodity prices that was experienced in the 1970s. Macro policy, exchange rates, and petroleum prices were important determinants of price variability over 2005–2010, highlighting the new linkages between the agriculture-energy and agriculture-finance markets that affect the world food economy today. These linkages contributed in large part to misguided expectations and uncertainty that drove prices to their peak in 2008. The article also argues that there is a long-lasting effect of price spikes on food policy around the world, often resulting in self-sufficiency policies that create even more volatility in international markets. The efforts by governments to stabilize prices frequently contribute to even greater food insecurity among poor households, most of which are in rural areas and survive on the margin of net consumption and net production. Events of 2008—and more recently in 2010—underscore the impact of price variability for food security and the need for refocused policy approaches to prevent and mitigate price spikes.

  View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00354.x

  View details for Web of Science ID 000285359600002

  View details for PubMedID 21174866

• Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China's rice production JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES Deng Xiangzheng, X. Z., Huang Jikun, J. K., Qiao Fangbin, F. B., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Burke, M., Rozelle, S., Battisti, D. 2010; 20 (1): 3-16

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s11442-010-0003-6

  View details for Web of Science ID 000273792100001

• El Nino-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Rice Production in Luzon, the Philippines JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY Roberts, M. G., Dawe, D., Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. 2009; 48 (8): 1718-1724

  View details for DOI 10.1175/2008JAMC1628.1

  View details for Web of Science ID 000269409400013

• Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030 SCIENCE Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Mastrandrea, M. D., Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. 2008; 319 (5863): 607-610

  Abstract

  Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1152339

  View details for Web of Science ID 000252772000037

  View details for PubMedID 18239122

• The Asian Maize Economy in 2025 Falcon , W. P. 2008
• Our Daily Bread Boston Review Naylor, R. L., Falcon , W. P. 2008 : 13-18
• International trade in meat: The tip of the pork chop AMBIO Galloway, J. N., Burke, M., Bradford, G. E., Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Chapagain, A. K., Gaskell, J. C., McCullough, E., Mooney, H. A., Oleson, K. L., Steinfeld, H., Wassenaar, T., Smil, V. 2007; 36 (8): 622-629

  Abstract

  This paper provides an original account of global land, water, and nitrogen use in support of industrialized livestock production and trade, with emphasis on two of the fastest-growing sectors, pork and poultry. Our analysis focuses on trade in feed and animal products, using a new model that calculates the amount of "virtual" nitrogen, water, and land used in production but not embedded in the product. We show how key meat-importing countries, such as Japan, benefit from "virtual" trade in land, water, and nitrogen, and how key meat-exporting countries, such as Brazil, provide these resources without accounting for their true environmental cost. Results show that Japan's pig and chicken meat imports embody the virtual equivalent of 50% of Japan's total arable land, and half of Japan's virtual nitrogen total is lost in the US. Trade links with China are responsible for 15% of the virtual nitrogen left behind in Brazil due to feed and meat exports, and 20% of Brazil's area is used to grow soybean exports. The complexity of trade in meat, feed, water, and nitrogen is illustrated by the dual roles of the US and The Netherlands as both importers and exporters of meat. Mitigation of environmental damage from industrialized livestock production and trade depends on a combination of direct-pricing strategies, regulatory approaches, and use of best management practices. Our analysis indicates that increased water- and nitrogen-use efficiency and land conservation resulting from these measures could significantly reduce resource costs.

  View details for Web of Science ID 000251979900002

  View details for PubMedID 18240675

• The ripple effect: Biofuels, food security, and the environment ENVIRONMENT Naylor, R. L., Liska, A. J., Burke, M. B., Falcon, W. P., Gaskell, J. C., Rozelle, S. D., Cassman, K. G. 2007; 49 (9): 30-43

  View details for Web of Science ID 000250943700005

• Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Naylor, R. L., Battisti, D. S., Vimont, D. J., Falcon, W. P., Burke, M. B. 2007; 104 (19): 7752-7757

  Abstract

  El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.

  View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0701825104

  View details for Web of Science ID 000246461500007

  View details for PubMedID 17483453

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC1876519

• Yield uncertainty at the field scale evaluated with multi-year satellite data AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Falcon, W. P. 2007; 92 (1-3): 76-90

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agsy.2006.02.010

  View details for Web of Science ID 000243179200006

• Agriculture. Losing the links between livestock and land. Science Naylor, R., Steinfeld, H., Falcon, W., Galloway, J., Smil, V., Bradford, E., Alder, J., Mooney, H. 2005; 310 (5754): 1621-1622

  View details for PubMedID 16339432

• Professor Dr Saleh Afiff: An appreciation BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Timmer, C. P., Falcon, W. P. 2005; 41 (3): 305-307

  View details for DOI 10.1080/00074910500306585

  View details for Web of Science ID 000234824900003

• Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2005; 94 (2-3): 250-256

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007

  View details for Web of Science ID 000232196400012

• Combining field surveys, remote sensing, and regression trees to understand yield variations in an irrigated wheat landscape AGRONOMY JOURNAL Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2005; 97 (1): 241-249

  View details for Web of Science ID 000226783300033

• Rethinking food security for the twenty-first century AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. 2005; 87 (5): 1113-1127

  View details for Web of Science ID 000203010500002

• Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L., Smith, W. L., Burke, M. B., McCullough, E. B. 2004; 40 (3): 355-377

  View details for DOI 10.1080/0007491042000231520

  View details for Web of Science ID 000225773500004

• Biotechnology in the developing world: a case for increased investments in orphan crops 6th International Conference of the International-Consortium-on-Agricultural-Biotechnology-Research Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Goodman, R. M., Jahn, M. M., Sengooba, T., Tefera, H., Nelson, R. J. ELSEVIER SCI LTD. 2004: 15–44

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.foodpol.2004.01.002

  View details for Web of Science ID 000221215700002

• Using forecasts from national and regional El Nino/Souther oscillation (ENSO) models to improve indonesia food security Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L., Smith , W. L. 2003; 38 (1)
• Carving up the commons - emergence of a new international regime for germplasm development and transfer FOOD POLICY Falcon, W. P., Fowler, C. 2002; 27 (3): 197-222

  View details for Web of Science ID 000178298600002

• Using El Nino - Southern oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Wada, N., Rochberg, D. 2002; 38 (1): 75-91

  View details for Web of Science ID 000175546600008

• Using El Nino/Southern Oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Wada, N., Rochberg , D. 2002; 38 (1)
• Using El Nino/Southern oscillation climate data to predict rice production in Indonesia CLIMATIC CHANGE Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Rochberg, D., Wada, N. 2001; 50 (3): 255-265

  View details for Web of Science ID 000169327000001

• Comments: Searching for sustainability ECOLOGY LAW QUARTERLY Falcon, W. P. 2001; 27 (4): 1163-1174

  View details for Web of Science ID 000168506300009

• Using El Nino/Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Predict Rice Production in Indonesia Climate Change Naylor, R. L., Falcon , W. P., Rochberg , D., Wada , N. 2001; 50: 255-265
• The maize transition in Asia: Unlocking the controversy Annual Meeting of the American-Agricultural-Economics-Association Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. 1998: 960–68

  View details for Web of Science ID 000078386300009

• Variability and growth in grain yields, 1950-94: Does the record point to greater instability? POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Zavaleta, E. 1997; 23 (1): 41-?

  View details for Web of Science ID A1997WQ43100002

• Herbicide Strategies for Asian Rice Systems Herbicides in Asian Rice: Transitions in Weed Management Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Kennedy , D. International Rice Research Institute Publications. 1997
• Developing a Weed Management Strategy for Asian Rice Production Herbicides in Asian Rice: Transitions in Weed Management Kennedy, D., Naylor, R. L., Falcon , W. P. Stanford University Institute for International Studies and International Rice Research Institute. 1996
• Developing a Weed Management Strategy for Asian Rice Production Herbicides in Asian Rice: Transitions in Weed Management Kennedy , D., Naylor, R. L., Falcon , W. P. Stanford University Institute for International Studies and International Rice Research Institute . 1996
• Is the locus of poverty changing? FOOD POLICY Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 1995; 20 (6): 501-518

  View details for Web of Science ID A1995TN68600003

• Food Security in Indonesia: Dedfining the Issues Indonesian Food Journal Falcon , W. P., Timmer , C. P. 1991; II (3)
• Recent Policy Influences on Rice Production Rice Policies in Indonesia Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Pearson , S. Cornell University Press . 1991
• Rice Policy in Indonesia Falcon, W. P., Pearson , S. Cornell University Press. 1991
• Whither Food Aid:A Comment Agriculture and the State Timmer, C. P., Falcon, W. P. Cornell University Press. 1991: 237–46
• FUTURE LINKS BETWEEN UNITED-STATES AGRICULTURE AND THE WORLD FOOD ECONOMY 1989 ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN SOC OF AGRONOMY Falcon, W. P. AMER SOC AGRONOMY. 1990: 269–73

  View details for Web of Science ID A1990DQ00300003

• AID, FOOD POLICY REFORM, AND UNITED-STATES AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE THIRD-WORLD AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Falcon, W. P. 1987; 69 (5): 929-935

  View details for Web of Science ID A1987M824900009

• Corn Economy of Indonesia, The The Corn Economy of Indonesia Falcon, W. P., Dorosh, P. Cornell University Press. 1987
• World Food and Hunger Problem: Changing Perspectives and Possibilities, 1974-1984, The Food Policy: Integrating Supply, Distribution, and Consumptio Falcon , W. P. The World Bank . 1987
• Discussion: Achievements and Challegnes: Policy Environmental Issues CIMMYT, The Future Development of Maize and Wheat in the Third World Falcon , W. P. 1987
• Food for a Developing World Resources and World Development Falcon, W. P., Dorfman, R. Wiley. 1987
• Rice Policy in Indonesia, 1985-1990: The Problem of Success Falcon , W. P. BULOG. 1985
• RECENT FOOD POLICY LESSONS FROM DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Falcon, W. P. 1984; 66 (2): 180-185

  View details for Web of Science ID A1984SS81000009

• Review: E.O. Heady and L.G. Tweeten's, Resource Demand and Structure of Agricultural American Economic Review Falcon , W. P. 1984
• Role of the United States in Alleviating World Hunger, The Agricultural Development in the Third World Falcon , W. P. Johns Hopkins Press. 1984
• Food Policy Analysis Falcon, W. P., Timmer, C. P., Pearson , S. R. Johns Hopkins Press . 1983
• World Food Economy: Recent Lessons for the United States and Mexico, The U.S.-Mexico Relations: Economic and Social Aspects Falcon , W. P. Stanford University Press. 1983
• Economic Dimensions of International Development Social, Cultural, Economic and Political Dimensions of International Agricultural Development Falcon , W. P. Lincoln Press. 1982
• REFLECTIONS ON THE PRESIDENTIAL-COMMISSION-ON-WORLD-HUNGER AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Falcon, W. P. 1981; 63 (5): 819-826

  View details for Web of Science ID A1981MW98900008

• Experiment in Rural Development, An The Indonesia Economy Falcon, W. P., Patten, R., Dapice, B. Praeger. 1980
• Elements of a Food and Nutrition Policy in Indonesia The Indonesia Economy Falcon, W. P., Afiff, S., Timmer , C. P. Praeger. 1980
• International Trade in Rice Food Rearch Institute Studies Falcon, W. P., Monke , E. 1980; XVIII (3)
• Asia, Kids, Calories and Poverty Agenda Falcon , W. P. 1979
• Energy and Agriculture in Developing Countries Land Management Issues and Development Strategies in Developing Countries Falcon, W. P., Dosik , R. S. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. 1979
• Perspective on China's Food Policy, A CERES, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Falcon , W. P., Timmer, C. P., Nelson , G. C. 1979; 12,2,3,4
• Transforming Knowledge into Food: Recent Lessons from Asia Transforming Knowledge into Food in the Worldwide Context Falcon , W. P. The Miller Publishing Company. 1978
• Political Economy of Rice Production and Trade in Asia, The Agriculture in Development Theory Falcon , W. P., Timmern , C. P. Yale University Press. 1975
• Impact of Price on Rice Trade in Asia, The Agriculture, Trade, and Development Falcon , W. P., Timmern , C. P. Ballinger Books . 1975
• Green Revolution and the Economics of Punjab, The Food Research Institute Studies Falcon , W. P., Gotsch , C. H. 1975; XIV (1)
• WAYS TO IMPROVE INTERNATIONAL TRAINING AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS SCHERTZ, L. P., Falcon, W. P. 1974; 56 (5): 1191-1198

  View details for Web of Science ID A1974V699500040

• Lessons and Issues in Taiwan's Development Agriculture's Place in the Strategy of Development Falcon , W. P. Joint Commission Rural Reconstruction. 1974
• Key Issues in Taiwan's Agricultural Development Industry of Free China Falcon , W. P. 1974; XXXXI (4)
• Relative Price Response, Economic Efficiency and Technological Change: A Study of Punjab Agriculture Development Policy II - The Pakistan Experience Falcon , W. P., Gotsch , C. H. Harvard University Press . 1971
• Cigarette Smoking and the Tobacco Farmer Public Policy Falcon, W. P., Mann, C. K. 1970
• Green Revolution: Generations of Problems, The American Journal of Agricultural Economics Falcon , W. P. 1970
• Lessons in Agricultural Development - Pakistan Development Policy - Theory and Practice Falcon , W. P., Gotsch , C. H. Harvard University Press. 1968
• Paths of Rural Change: Two Approaches with the Same Results Asian Reivew Falcon , W. P., Gotsch , C. H. 1968; 1 (4)
• Agricultural Policy and Performance in the Punjab: A Comparative Study of India and Pakistan Asian Review Falcon, W. P., Gotsch , C. H. 1968
• Agricultural and Industrial Interrelationships in West Pakistan Journal of Farm Economics Falcon , W. P. 1967
• Programming Models for the Planning of the Agricultural Sector The Theory and Design of Economic Development Falcon , W. P. Johns Hopkins University Press. 1966
• Agricultural Development Policites Journal of Farm Economics Falcon , W. P. 1966
• Farmer Response to Price in a Subsistence Economy: The Case of West Pakistan American Economic Review Falcon , W. P. 1964
• Some Comments on the Real Effects of Foreign Surplus Disposal in Underdeveloped Economies Quarterly Journal of Economics Falcon , W. P. 1963