Bio

Dr. Xu’s primary research areas are causal inference and comparative politics. His recent work focuses on developing methods for more credible causal inference and on improving the reproducibility and robustness of empirical research. He received his PhD in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an MA in Economics from Peking University, and a BA in Economics from Fudan University.

Dr. Xu has published widely in leading journals across the social sciences and applied statistics. He has received numerous professional awards. In 2024, he received the Emerging Scholar Award from the Society for Political Methodology in recognition of his significant contributions to the field within ten years of earning his PhD.

Dr. Xu is affiliated with the Stanford Causal Science Center and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions, as well as other research institutions.

Academic Appointments

Honors & Awards

  • The Editors’ Choice Award from Political Analysis, The Society for Political Methodology (2025)
  • The Best Statistical Software Award, The Society for Political Methodology (2025)
  • The Gosnell Prize, Honorable Mention, The Society for Political Methodology (2025)
  • W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow, Hoover Institution (2024)
  • The Emerging Scholar Award, The Society for Political Methodology (2024)
  • The Best Statistical Software Award, The Society for Political Methodology (2024)
  • The Becky Morton and Tom Carsey Excellence in Mentoring Award, Honorable Mention, The Society for Political Methodology (2024)
  • The Miller Prize, The Society for Political Methodology (2020)
  • The Editors’ Choice Award from Political Analysis, The Society for Political Methodology (2018)
  • The Miller Prize, The Society for Political Methodology (2018)
  • The Best Article Award from American Journal of Political Science, Midwest Political Science Association (2016)
  • The Malcolm Jewell Award, Southern Political Science Association (2016)
  • The John T. Williams Dissertation Prize, The Society for Political Methodology (2014)

Additional Info

Links

2025-26 Courses

Stanford Advisees

All Publications

  • Causal Panel Analysis under Parallel Trends: Lessons from a Large Reanalysis Study (vol 120, pg 245, 2026) AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW Chiu, A., Lan, X., Liu, Z., Xu, Y. 2026

    View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055426101798

    View details for Web of Science ID 001802937100001

  • Factorial Difference-in-Differences JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION Xu, Y., Zhao, A., Ding, P. 2026

    View details for DOI 10.1080/01621459.2026.2628343

    View details for Web of Science ID 001785127000001

  • How deceptive online networks reached millions in the US 2020 elections. Nature human behaviour Appel, R. E., Kim, Y. M., Pan, J., Xu, Y., Nimmo, B., Thomas, D. R., Allcott, H., Barberá, P., Brown, T., Crespo-Tenorio, A., Dimmery, D., Freelon, D., Gentzkow, M., González-Bailón, S., Guess, A. M., Iyengar, S., Lazer, D., Malhotra, N., Moehler, D., Nyhan, B., Settle, J., Thorson, E., Tromble, R., Velasco Rivera, C., Wilkins, A., Wojcieszak, M., Xiong, B., Kiewiet de Jonge, C., Franco, A., Mason, W., Stroud, N. J., Tucker, J. A. 2026

    Abstract

    Deceptive online networks are coordinated efforts that use identity deception to pursue strategic political or financial goals. During the US 2020 elections, these networks reached at least 37 million Facebook and 3 million Instagram users, representing 15% and 2% of the platforms' active US adult users, respectively. Only 3 networks out of 49-1 network with explicitly political aims and 2 that appeared to use politics as a lure for profit-were responsible for over 70% of users reached. Notably, accounts unaffiliated with the networks played an important role in facilitating this reach by resharing content the three networks produced. Deceptive networks, regardless of whether their goals were political or financial, reached users who were older, more conservative, more frequently exposed to content from untrustworthy sources, and spent more time on Facebook.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41562-026-02435-2

    View details for PubMedID 41942710

    View details for PubMedCentralID 7439640

  • Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Nonpolitical Crimes to Undermine Dissent JOURNAL OF POLITICS Pan, J., Xu, X., Xu, Y. 2026

    View details for DOI 10.1086/734267

    View details for Web of Science ID 001584965200001

  • Gauging preference stability under authoritarianism RESEARCH & POLITICS Pan, J., Xu, Y. 2025; 12 (4)

    View details for DOI 10.1177/20531680251400418

    View details for Web of Science ID 001644413900001

  • Comparing Experimental and Nonexperimental Methods: What Lessons Have We Learned Four Decades after LaLonde (1986)? JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES Imbens, G. W., Xu, Y. 2025; 39 (4): 173-202

    View details for DOI 10.1257/jep.20251440

    View details for Web of Science ID 001613661800008

  • Causal Panel Analysis under Parallel Trends: Lessons from a Large Reanalysis Study AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW Chiu, A., Lan, X., Liu, Z., Xu, Y. 2025

    View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055425000243

    View details for Web of Science ID 001504343300001

  • Does Legality Produce Political Legitimacy? An Experimental Approach JOURNAL OF LEGAL STUDIES Fu, Y., Xu, Y., Zhang, T. 2025; 54 (2): 257-285

    View details for DOI 10.1086/732785

    View details for Web of Science ID 001528907200005

  • Decentralized propaganda in the era of digital media: The massive presence of the Chinese state on Douyin AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Lu, Y., Pan, J., Xu, X., Xu, Y. 2025

    View details for DOI 10.1111/ajps.12990

    View details for Web of Science ID 001493282100001

  • How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies POLITICAL ANALYSIS Lal, A., Lockhart, M., Xu, Y., Zu, Z. 2024

    View details for DOI 10.1017/pan.2024.2

    View details for Web of Science ID 001217234700001

  • Panel Data Visualization in R (panelView) and Stata (panelview) JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL SOFTWARE Mou, H., Liu, L., Xu, Y. 2023; 107 (7)

    View details for DOI 10.18637/jss.v107.i07

    View details for Web of Science ID 001080351400001

  • The power of history: How a victimization narrative shapes national identity and public opinion in China RESEARCH & POLITICS Xu, Y., Zhao, J. 2023; 10 (2)

    View details for DOI 10.1177/20531680231154837

    View details for Web of Science ID 000975590700001

  • Bayesian Rule Set: A Quantitative Alternative to Qualitative Comparative Analysis JOURNAL OF POLITICS Chiu, A., Xu, Y. 2023

    View details for DOI 10.1086/720791

    View details for Web of Science ID 000899600800001

  • A Practical Guide to Counterfactual Estimators for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Liu, L., Wang, Y., Xu, Y. 2022

    View details for DOI 10.1111/ajps.12723

    View details for Web of Science ID 000835147300001

  • Hierarchically Regularized Entropy Balancing POLITICAL ANALYSIS Xu, Y., Yang, E. 2022

    View details for DOI 10.1017/pan.2022.12

    View details for Web of Science ID 000813371700001

  • Clans and calamity: How social capital saved lives during China's Great Famine JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS Cao, J., Xu, Y., Zhang, C. 2022; 157

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102865

    View details for Web of Science ID 000792123400003

  • How government-controlled media shifts policy attitudes through framing POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND METHODS Pan, J., Shao, Z., Xu, Y. 2022; 10 (2): 317-332

    View details for DOI 10.1017/psrm.2021.35

    View details for Web of Science ID 000777984100008

  • A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies POLITICAL ANALYSIS Pang, X., Liu, L., Xu, Y. 2022; 30 (2): 269-288

    View details for DOI 10.1017/pan.2021.22

    View details for Web of Science ID 000766699500010

  • How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice POLITICAL ANALYSIS Hainmueller, J., Mummolo, J., Xu, Y. 2019; 27 (2): 163–92

    View details for DOI 10.1017/pan.2018.46

    View details for Web of Science ID 000462735500003

  • Outspoken Insiders: Political Connections and Citizen Participation in Authoritarian China POLITICAL BEHAVIOR Tsai, L. L., Xu, Y. 2018; 40 (3): 629–57

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s11109-017-9416-6

    View details for Web of Science ID 000442002500004

  • China's Ideological Spectrum JOURNAL OF POLITICS Pan, J., Xu, Y. 2018; 80 (1): 254–73

    View details for DOI 10.1086/694255

    View details for Web of Science ID 000419487800033

  • Incremental Democracy: The Policy Effects of Partisan Control of State Government JOURNAL OF POLITICS Caughey, D., Warshaw, C., Xu, Y. 2017; 79 (4): 1342–58

    View details for DOI 10.1086/692669

    View details for Web of Science ID 000418267500023

  • Why Do Authoritarian Regimes Allow Citizens to Voice Opinions Publicly? JOURNAL OF POLITICS Chen, J., Xu, Y. 2017; 79 (3): 792–803

    View details for DOI 10.1086/690303

    View details for Web of Science ID 000403659000012

  • Information Manipulation and Reform in Authoritarian Regimes POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND METHODS Chen, J., Xu, Y. 2017; 5 (1): 163–78

    View details for DOI 10.1017/psrm.2015.21

    View details for Web of Science ID 000391225900008

  • Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models POLITICAL ANALYSIS Xu, Y. 2017; 25 (1): 57–76

    View details for DOI 10.1017/pan.2016.2

    View details for Web of Science ID 000398071200003

  • Sources of Authoritarian Responsiveness: A Field Experiment in China AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Chen, J., Pan, J., Xu, Y. 2016; 60 (2): 383-400

    View details for DOI 10.1111/ajps.12207

    View details for Web of Science ID 000374005500007

  • Informal Institutions, Collective Action, and Public Investment in Rural China AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW Xu, Y., Yao, Y. 2015; 109 (2): 371–91

    View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055415000155

    View details for Web of Science ID 000353518100011

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2041-6671