Solomon Hsiang

All Publications

• Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the UnitedStates. Nature Young, R., Hsiang, S. 2024

  Abstract

  Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies1. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed afteradisaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event1,2. Tropical cyclones (TCs)-that is, hurricanes and tropical storms-are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts3-5, but their full health impact remains unknown. Here we conduct a large-scale evaluation of long-term effects of TCs on human mortality in the contiguous UnitedStates (CONUS) for all TCs between 1930and2015. We observe a robust increase in excess mortality that persists for 15 years after each geophysical event. We estimate that the average TC generates 7,000-11,000 excess deaths, exceeding the average of 24 immediate deaths reported in government statistics6,7. Tracking the effects of 501 historical storms, we compute that the TC climate of CONUS imposes an undocumented mortality burden that explains a substantial fraction of the higher mortality rates along the Atlantic coast and is equal to roughly 3.2-5.1% of all deaths. These findings suggest that the TC climate, previously thought to be unimportant for broader public health outcomes, is a meaningful underlying driver for the distribution of mortality risk in CONUS, especially among infants (less than 1 yearof age), people 1-44 yearsof age, and the Black population. Understanding why TCs induce this excess mortality is likely to yield substantial health benefits.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-024-07945-5

  View details for PubMedID 39358513

• Mainstreaming nature in US federal policy. Science (New York, N.Y.) Tallis, H., Fenichel, E. P., Petes, L., Hsiang, S., Levin, P. S., Levy, H., Lubchenco, J. 2024; 385 (6708): 498-501

  Abstract

  Integrated policy changes must be cross-sectoral, appropriate, strategic, and evidence-based.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adp5394

  View details for PubMedID 39088606

• Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions NATURE Proctor, J., Hsiang, S., Burney, J., Burke, M., Schlenker, W. 2018; 560 (7719): 480-+

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3

  View details for Web of Science ID 000442483400040

• Will Wealth Weaken Weather Wars? Burke, M., Ferguson, J., Hsiang, S., Miguel, E. AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC. 2024: 65-69

  View details for DOI 10.1257/pandp.20241055

  View details for Web of Science ID 001258418200008

• Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption (vol 598, pg 308, 2021) NATURE Rode, A., Carleton, T., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., Rising, J., Yuan, J. 2021; 600 (7889): E17

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-021-04185-9

  View details for Web of Science ID 000723523500001

  View details for PubMedID 34845386

• Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption NATURE Rode, A., Carleton, T., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., Rising, J., Yuan, J. 2021; 598 (7880): 308-+

  Abstract

  Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can inform climate policy1-3. The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate4-6. Previous estimates have suggested that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC7,8, but they rely on models9-11 that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data2,3,6,7,12,13. Here we show that the release of one ton of CO2 today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between -US$3 and -US$1, depending on discount rates. Our results are based on an architecture that integrates global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate local damages worldwide. Notably, we project that emerging economies in the tropics will dramatically increase electricity consumption owing to warming, which requires critical infrastructure planning. However, heating reductions in colder countries offset this increase globally. We estimate that 2099 annual global electricity consumption increases by about 4.5 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), whereas direct consumption of other fuels declines by about 11.3 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in GMST. Our finding of net savings contradicts previous research7,8, because global data indicate that many populations will remain too poor for most of the twenty-first century to substantially increase energy consumption in response to warming. Importantly, damage estimates would differ if poorer populations were given greater weight14.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-021-03883-8

  View details for Web of Science ID 000707158300016

  View details for PubMedID 34646000

  View details for PubMedCentralID 5694765

• Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Bates, P. D., Quinn, N., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Wing, O., Sosa, J., Savage, J., Olcese, G., Neal, J., Schumann, G., Giustarini, L., Coxon, G., Porter, J. R., Amodeo, M. F., Chu, Z., Lewis-Gruss, S., Freeman, N. B., Houser, T., Delgado, M., Hamidi, A., Bolliger, I., McCusker, K., Emanuel, K., Ferreira, C. M., Khalid, A., Haigh, I. D., Couasnon, A., Kopp, R., Hsiang, S., Krajewski, W. F. 2021; 57 (2)

  View details for DOI 10.1029/2020WR028673

  View details for Web of Science ID 000624603200019

• The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Diffenbaugh, N. S., Field, C. B., Appel, E. A., Azevedo, I. L., Baldocchi, D. D., Burke, M., Burney, J. A., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Fiore, A. M., Fletcher, S. M., Hertel, T. W., Horton, D. E., Hsiang, S. M., Jackson, R. B., Jin, X., Levi, M., Lobell, D. B., McKinley, G. A., Moore, F. C., Montgomery, A., Nadeau, K. C., Pataki, D. E., Randerson, J. T., Reichstein, M., Schnell, J. L., Seneviratne, S., Singh, D., Steiner, A. L., Wong-Parodi, G. 2020; 1 (9): 470-481

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s43017-020-0079-1

  View details for Web of Science ID 000649448400008

• Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION Baysan, C., Burke, M., Gonzalez, F., Hsiang, S., Miguel, E. 2019; 168: 434–52

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.021

  View details for Web of Science ID 000506727700022

• Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases SCIENCE Duffy, P. B., Field, C. B., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Doney, S. C., Dutton, Z., Goodman, S., Heinzerling, L., Hsiang, S., Lobell, D. B., Mickley, L. J., Myers, S., Natali, S. M., Parmesan, C., Tierney, S., Williams, A. 2019; 363 (6427): 597-+

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aat5982

  View details for Web of Science ID 000458114200038

• Ivory crisis: Growing no-trade consensus SCIENCE Sekar, N., Clark, W., Dobson, A., Francisco Coelho, P., Hannam, P. M., Hepworth, R., Hsiang, S., Kahumbu, P., Lee, P. C., Lindsay, K., Pereira, C., Wasser, S. K., Nowak, K. 2018; 360 (6386): 276-277

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aat1105

  View details for Web of Science ID 000430396600030

  View details for PubMedID 29674583

• Climate and conflict: no stigma NATURE Hsiang, S., Burke, M. 2018; 555 (7698): 587

  View details for Web of Science ID 000428617600027

• Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico Nature Climate Change Burke, M., González, F., Baylis, P., Heft-Neal, S., Baysan, C., Basu, S., Hsiang, S. 2018; 8 (8): 723--729

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x

• Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States SCIENCE Hsiang, S., Kopp, R., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado, M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D. J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., Larsen, K., Houser, T. 2017; 356 (6345): 1362-1368

  Abstract

  Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors-agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor-increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aal4369

  View details for Web of Science ID 000404351500032

  View details for PubMedID 28663496

• Social and economic impacts of climate SCIENCE Carleton, T. A., Hsiang, S. M. 2016; 353 (6304)

  Abstract

  For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aad9837

  View details for Web of Science ID 000382626800041

  View details for PubMedID 27609899

• Potentially Extreme Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-Extreme Warming SCIENTIFIC REPORTS Hsiang, S. M., Sobel, A. H. 2016; 6: 25697

  Abstract

  Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate warms, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to extreme distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild warming scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/srep25697

  View details for Web of Science ID 000377334200001

  View details for PubMedID 27278823

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4900031

• Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production NATURE Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., Miguel, E. 2015; 527 (7577): 235-?

  Abstract

  Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/nature15725

  View details for Web of Science ID 000364396700045

  View details for PubMedID 26503051

• Climate and Conflict ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS, VOL 7 Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., Miguel, E. 2015; 7: 577-?

  View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430

  View details for Web of Science ID 000358981000023

• Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al. CLIMATIC CHANGE Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., Miguel, E. 2014; 127 (3-4): 399-405

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1276-z

  View details for Web of Science ID 000345372000002

• Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M., Hsiang, S. M. 2014; 111 (27): 9780-9785

  Abstract

  We present a microlevel study to simultaneously investigate the effects of variations in temperature and precipitation along with sudden natural disasters to infer their relative influence on migration that is likely permanent. The study is made possible by the availability of household panel data from Indonesia with an exceptional tracking rate combined with frequent occurrence of natural disasters and significant climatic variations, thus providing a quasi-experiment to examine the influence of environment on migration. Using data on 7,185 households followed over 15 y, we analyze whole-household, province-to-province migration, which allows us to understand the effects of environmental factors on permanent moves that may differ from temporary migration. The results suggest that permanent migration is influenced by climatic variations, whereas episodic disasters tend to have much smaller or no impact on such migration. In particular, temperature has a nonlinear effect on migration such that above 25 °C, a rise in temperature is related to an increase in outmigration, potentially through its impact on economic conditions. We use these results to estimate the impact of projected temperature increases on future permanent migration. Though precipitation also has a similar nonlinear effect on migration, the effect is smaller than that of temperature, underscoring the importance of using an expanded set of climatic factors as predictors of migration. These findings on the minimal influence of natural disasters and precipitation on permanent moves supplement previous findings on the significant role of these variables in promoting temporary migration.

  View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1317166111

  View details for Web of Science ID 000338514800029

  View details for PubMedID 24958887

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4103331

• CORRESPONDENCE: Temperature and violence NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Cane, M. A., Miguel, E., Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., Lobell, D. B., Meng, K. C., Satyanath, S. 2014; 4 (4): 234-235

  View details for DOI 10.1038/nclimate2171

  View details for Web of Science ID 000333669600006

• Reconciling disagreement over climate-conflict results in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Hsiang, S. M., Meng, K. C. 2014; 111 (6): 2100-3

  Abstract

  A recent study by Burke et al. [Burke M, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema J, Lobell D (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670-20674] reports statistical evidence that the likelihood of civil wars in African countries was elevated in hotter years. A following study by Buhaug [Buhaug H (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477-16482] reports that a reexamination of the evidence overturns Burke et al.'s findings when alternative statistical models and alternative measures of conflict are used. We show that the conclusion by Buhaug is based on absent or incorrect statistical tests, both in model selection and in the comparison of results with Burke et al. When we implement the correct tests, we find there is no evidence presented in Buhaug that rejects the original results of Burke et al.

  View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1316006111

  View details for PubMedID 24520173