Solomon Hsiang

All Publications

• Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the UnitedStates. Nature Young, R., Hsiang, S. 2024

  Abstract

  Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies1. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed afteradisaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event1,2. Tropical cyclones (TCs)-that is, hurricanes and tropical storms-are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts3-5, but their full health impact remains unknown. Here we conduct a large-scale evaluation of long-term effects of TCs on human mortality in the contiguous UnitedStates (CONUS) for all TCs between 1930and2015. We observe a robust increase in excess mortality that persists for 15 years after each geophysical event. We estimate that the average TC generates 7,000-11,000 excess deaths, exceeding the average of 24 immediate deaths reported in government statistics6,7. Tracking the effects of 501 historical storms, we compute that the TC climate of CONUS imposes an undocumented mortality burden that explains a substantial fraction of the higher mortality rates along the Atlantic coast and is equal to roughly 3.2-5.1% of all deaths. These findings suggest that the TC climate, previously thought to be unimportant for broader public health outcomes, is a meaningful underlying driver for the distribution of mortality risk in CONUS, especially among infants (less than 1 yearof age), people 1-44 yearsof age, and the Black population. Understanding why TCs induce this excess mortality is likely to yield substantial health benefits.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-024-07945-5

  View details for PubMedID 39358513

• Mainstreaming nature in US federal policy. Science (New York, N.Y.) Tallis, H., Fenichel, E. P., Petes, L., Hsiang, S., Levin, P. S., Levy, H., Lubchenco, J. 2024; 385 (6708): 498-501

  Abstract

  Integrated policy changes must be cross-sectoral, appropriate, strategic, and evidence-based.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adp5394

  View details for PubMedID 39088606

• Will Wealth Weaken Weather Wars? Burke, M., Ferguson, J., Hsiang, S., Miguel, E. AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC. 2024: 65-69

  View details for DOI 10.1257/pandp.20241055

  View details for Web of Science ID 001258418200008

• The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Diffenbaugh, N. S., Field, C. B., Appel, E. A., Azevedo, I. L., Baldocchi, D. D., Burke, M., Burney, J. A., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Fiore, A. M., Fletcher, S. M., Hertel, T. W., Horton, D. E., Hsiang, S. M., Jackson, R. B., Jin, X., Levi, M., Lobell, D. B., McKinley, G. A., Moore, F. C., Montgomery, A., Nadeau, K. C., Pataki, D. E., Randerson, J. T., Reichstein, M., Schnell, J. L., Seneviratne, S., Singh, D., Steiner, A. L., Wong-Parodi, G. 2020; 1 (9): 470-481

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s43017-020-0079-1

  View details for Web of Science ID 000649448400008

• Reply to: Temporal displacement, adaptation and the effect of climate on suicide rates NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Burke, M., Gonzalez, F., Baylis, P., Heft-Neal, S., Baysan, C., Hsiang, S. 2020

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41558-020-0792-2

  View details for Web of Science ID 000537360700006

• Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION Baysan, C., Burke, M., Gonzalez, F., Hsiang, S., Miguel, E. 2019; 168: 434–52

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.021

  View details for Web of Science ID 000506727700022

• Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases SCIENCE Duffy, P. B., Field, C. B., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Doney, S. C., Dutton, Z., Goodman, S., Heinzerling, L., Hsiang, S., Lobell, D. B., Mickley, L. J., Myers, S., Natali, S. M., Parmesan, C., Tierney, S., Williams, A. 2019; 363 (6427): 597-+

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aat5982

  View details for Web of Science ID 000458114200038

• Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases. Science (New York, N.Y.) Duffy, P. B., Field, C. B., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Doney, S. C., Dutton, Z., Goodman, S., Heinzerling, L., Hsiang, S., Lobell, D. B., Mickley, L. J., Myers, S., Natali, S. M., Parmesan, C., Tierney, S., Williams, A. P. 2018

  Abstract

  We assess scientific evidence that has emerged since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 2009 Endangerment Finding for six well-mixed greenhouse gases, and find that this new evidence lends increased support to the conclusion that these gases pose a danger to public health and welfare. Newly available evidence about a wide range of observed and projected impacts strengthens the association between risk of some of these impacts and anthropogenic climate change; indicates that some impacts or combinations of impacts have the potential to be more severe than previously understood; and identifies substantial risk of additional impacts through processes and pathways not considered in the endangerment finding.

  View details for PubMedID 30545843

• Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions NATURE Proctor, J., Hsiang, S., Burney, J., Burke, M., Schlenker, W. 2018; 560 (7719): 480-+

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3

  View details for Web of Science ID 000442483400040

• Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions. Nature Proctor, J., Hsiang, S., Burney, J., Burke, M., Schlenker, W. 2018

  Abstract

  Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures1,2, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress4, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management-if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic-would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

  View details for PubMedID 30089909

• Climate and conflict: no stigma NATURE Hsiang, S., Burke, M. 2018; 555 (7698): 587

  View details for Web of Science ID 000428617600027

• Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico Nature Climate Change Burke, M., González, F., Baylis, P., Heft-Neal, S., Baysan, C., Basu, S., Hsiang, S. 2018; 8 (8): 723--729

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x

• Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production NATURE Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., Miguel, E. 2015; 527 (7577): 235-?

  Abstract

  Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/nature15725

  View details for Web of Science ID 000364396700045

  View details for PubMedID 26503051

• Climate and Conflict ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS, VOL 7 Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., Miguel, E. 2015; 7: 577-?

  View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430

  View details for Web of Science ID 000358981000023

• Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al. CLIMATIC CHANGE Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., Miguel, E. 2014; 127 (3-4): 399-405

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1276-z

  View details for Web of Science ID 000345372000002

• CORRESPONDENCE: Temperature and violence NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Cane, M. A., Miguel, E., Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., Lobell, D. B., Meng, K. C., Satyanath, S. 2014; 4 (4): 234-235

  View details for DOI 10.1038/nclimate2171

  View details for Web of Science ID 000333669600006