Christopher Callahan

All Publications

• Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth. Science (New York, N.Y.) Callahan, C. W., Mankin, J. S. 2023; 380 (6649): 1064-1069

  Abstract

  The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to ENSO will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth; we attribute $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in global income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events, respectively. In an emissions scenario consistent with current mitigation pledges, increased ENSO amplitude and teleconnections from warming are projected to cause $84 trillion in 21st-century economic losses, but these effects are shaped by stochastic variation in the sequence of El Niño and La Niña events. Our results highlight the sensitivity of the economy to climate variability independent of warming and the potential for future losses due to anthropogenic intensification of such variability.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adf2983

  View details for PubMedID 37200450

• Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth SCIENCE ADVANCES Callahan, C. W., Mankin, J. S. 2022; 8 (43): eadd3726

  Abstract

  Increased extreme heat is among the clearest impacts of global warming, but the economic effects of heat waves are poorly understood. Using subnational economic data, extreme heat metrics measuring the temperature of the hottest several days in each year, and an ensemble of climate models, we quantify the effect of extreme heat intensity on economic growth globally. We find that human-caused increases in heat waves have depressed economic output most in the poor tropical regions least culpable for warming. Cumulative 1992-2013 losses from anthropogenic extreme heat likely fall between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion globally. Losses amount to 6.7% of Gross Domestic Product per capita per year for regions in the bottom income decile, but only 1.5% for regions in the top income decile. Our results have the potential to inform adaptation investments and demonstrate how global inequality is both a cause and consequence of the unequal burden of climate change.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.add3726

  View details for Web of Science ID 000893394700005

  View details for PubMedID 36306351

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC9616493

• National attribution of historical climate damages CLIMATIC CHANGE Callahan, C. W., Mankin, J. S. 2022; 172 (3-4)

  View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-022-03387-y

  View details for Web of Science ID 000824922800001