Belal Hossain
Postdoctoral Scholar, Immunology and Rheumatology
Bio
I have a strong statistical background in analyzing and developing methods with observational and pragmatic clinical trial data. I also have experience in epidemiological and public health research, focusing on infectious and communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, adult health, and maternal & child health research. My current research interests include biostatistics and epidemiology, with a particular focus on causal inference, machine learning, causal inference with machine learning, risk prediction modelling, causal mediation analysis, and complex surveys.
Stanford Advisors
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Lola Falasinnu, Postdoctoral Faculty Sponsor
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Jennifer Rabbitts, Postdoctoral Research Mentor
Contact
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4603-863XAll Publications
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Global, regional and national burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to suboptimal diet, 1990-2023: a Global Burden of Disease study
NATURE MEDICINE
2026; 32 (4): 1454-+
Abstract
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains a leading cause of death worldwide, with dietary risks being its most significant modifiable factor. Here, using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2023, we estimated the mortality and disability-adjusted life years from diet-related IHD across 204 countries. In 2023, a suboptimal diet was responsible for 4.06 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.74-6.22) IHD deaths and 96.84 million (18.82-142.52) IHD disability-adjusted life years. The global age-standardized death rate of IHD attributable to suboptimal diet decreased by 43.92% (95% UI 34.44-53.23) per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2023. Among dietary factors, low intake of nuts and seeds (9.87, 95% UI 2.84-17.12 deaths per 100,000 population), low whole grains (9.22, 4.73-13.67), low fruits (7.25, 1.54-13.34) and high sodium (7.15, 0.92-17.97) were primary contributors to IHD deaths. The burden was particularly pronounced in low- and middle-sociodemographic index countries. By disentangling dietary risk factors, we identified the portion of IHD burden directly modifiable through food interventions.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41591-026-04250-8
View details for Web of Science ID 001774679500001
View details for PubMedID 41912805
View details for PubMedCentralID 8030119
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Global, regional, and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2023: a Global Burden of Disease study
NATURE MEDICINE
2026; 32 (1): 197-223
Abstract
Chronic respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis, are major global causes of mortality and morbidity. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced acute respiratory health, its impact on chronic respiratory conditions remains unclear. We estimated the global, regional and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases from 1990 to 2023, including risk factors, and evaluated how these burdens have shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. In 2023, chronic respiratory diseases accounted for 569.2 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 508.8-639.8) cases and 4.2 million (3.6-5.1) deaths. The age-standardized death rate declined by 25.7% globally from 1990 to 2023 despite an increase in ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis. Mortality declined in younger males, especially for asthma, whereas older adults experienced a rise in ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis. Smoking was the primary risk factor for COPD, whereas high body mass index and silica exposure were key risk factors for asthma and pneumoconiosis. During the pandemic, the incidence of chronic respiratory diseases increased modestly, but the decline in mortality rates became more pronounced, highlighting the need for sustained global attention and action to address their long-term burden.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41591-025-04077-9
View details for Web of Science ID 001670970400001
View details for PubMedID 41495401
View details for PubMedCentralID 4595690
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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2023
JACC-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CARDIOLOGY
2025; 86 (22): 2167-2243
Abstract
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality and are among the foremost causes of disability globally. CVD burden has continued to increase in most countries since 1990, with trends driven by changing exposures to harmful risk factors, population growth, and population aging.We report estimates of global, national, and subnational CVD burden, including 18 subdiseases and 12 associated modifiable risk factors. We analyzed change in CVD burden from 1990 to 2023 and identified drivers of change including population growth, population aging, and risk factor exposure.The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, a multinational collaborative research study, quantified burden due to 375 diseases including CVD burden and identified drivers of change from 1990 to 2023 using all available data and statistical models. GBD 2023 estimated the population-level burden of diseases in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023.CVDs were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths estimated in the GBD. As of 2023, there were 437 million (95% UI: 401 to 465 million) CVD DALYs globally, a 1.4-fold increase from the number in 1990 of 320 million (292 to 344 million). Ischemic heart disease, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and hypertensive heart disease were the leading cardiovascular causes of DALYs in 2023 globally. As of 2023, age-standardized CVD DALY rates were highest in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) settings and lowest in high SDI settings. The number of CVD deaths increased globally from 13.1 million (95% UI: 12.2 to 14.0 million) in 1990 to 19.2 million (95% UI: 17.4 to 20.4 million) in 2023. The number of prevalent cases of CVD more than doubled since 1990, with 311 million (95% UI: 294 to 333 million) prevalent cases of CVD in 1990 and 626 million (95% UI: 591 to 672 million) prevalent cases in 2023 globally. A total of 79.6% (95% UI: 75.7% to 82.5%) of CVD burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors 347 million [95% UI: 318 to 373 million] DALYs in 2023). Globally, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and air pollution were the modifiable risks responsible for most attributable CVD burden in 2023. Since 1990, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors have had mixed effects on CVD burden, with increases in high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and low physical activity leading to higher burden, while reductions in tobacco usage have mitigated some of these increases. Population growth and population aging were the main drivers of the increasing burden since 1990, adding 128 million (95% UI: 115 to 139 million) and 139 million (95% UI: 126 to 151 million) CVD DALYs to the increase in CVD burden since 1990.CVD remains the leading cause of disease burden and death worldwide with the greatest burden in low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions. Large variation exists in CVD burden even for countries at similar levels of development, a gap explained substantially by known, modifiable risk factors that are inadequately controlled. The decades-long increase in CVD burden was the result of population growth, population aging, and increased exposure to a subset of risk factors led by metabolic risks. Countries will need to adopt effective health system and public health strategies if they are to progress in achieving global goals to reduce the burden of CVD.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jacc.2025.08.015
View details for Web of Science ID 001630601900021
View details for PubMedID 40990886
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Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950-2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
LANCET
2025; 406 (10513): 1731-1810
Abstract
Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics-including life expectancy and age-specific mortality-are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study-part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023-aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time.We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950-2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5-14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15-49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0-61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59-4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2-38·4) over the 1950-2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8-67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5-14 years, 25-29 years, and 30-39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5-14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950-2021 period) and for females aged 15-29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6-51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4-48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2-76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3-71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6-74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2-69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0-76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2-71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally.This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950-2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world.Gates Foundation.
View details for DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01330-3
View details for Web of Science ID 001614779400001
View details for PubMedID 41092927
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12535839
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Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
LANCET
2025; 406 (10513): 1811-1872
Abstract
Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations.GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6-47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1-63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1-45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7-61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1-48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5-66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9-81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8-74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5-38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2-35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value.We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting-with enhanced estimation methods-the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales.Gates Foundation.
View details for DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01917-8
View details for Web of Science ID 001605004700001
View details for PubMedID 41092928
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12535838
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Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
LANCET
2025; 406 (10513): 1873-1922
Abstract
For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions.The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010-23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution.Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0-8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46-2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57-3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0-14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31-1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63-2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9-6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176-209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141-172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2-107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0-107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6-42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5-25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837-917) in 2010 to 681 million (642-736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6-28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7-61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0-48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6-56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6-22·0) and 24·8% (7·4-36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7-19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18-1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation-with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9-10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories-behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational-risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8-37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0-11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023-eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7-65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3-63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6-72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3-53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [-2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant).Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors-eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG-including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic-the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges-will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity.Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
View details for DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01637-X
View details for Web of Science ID 001606031100001
View details for PubMedID 41092926
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12535840
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Comparative effectiveness of take-home dosing schedules for opioid agonist treatment in British Columbia, Canada: a target trial emulation protocol using a population-based observational study
BMJ OPEN
2025; 15 (10): e098317
Abstract
The introduction of fentanyl and its analogues in the illicit drug supply has prompted greater emphasis on refining clinical treatment protocols to ensure sustained retention in opioid agonist treatment (OAT). Take-home dosing may lessen the treatment burden on clients and thus reduce the risk of treatment discontinuation. The evidence base supporting the use of take-home dosing, including the optimal duration of dispensations, is, however, limited. The objective of this study is to determine the comparative effectiveness of alternative take-home dosing schedules, as observed in clinical practice in British Columbia, Canada from 2010 to 2022.We propose to emulate a target trial with a population-level retrospective study of individuals initiating methadone or buprenorphine/naloxone between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2022 who are 18 years of age or older and not currently incarcerated or pregnant with no history of cancer or palliative care. Our study will draw on nine linked health administrative databases from British Columbia and will evaluate take-home doses of 2-5 days, 6 days or >6 days compared with continuous daily dosing. The primary outcomes include OAT discontinuation and all-cause mortality on treatment. A causal per-protocol analysis is proposed with longitudinal matching and inverse probability of censoring weighting approaches to adjust for time-fixed and time-varying confounding. A range of sensitivity analyses will be executed to determine the robustness of results.The protocol, cohort creation and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by Providence Health Care Research Ethics Board and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. Results will be disseminated and shared with local advocacy groups and decision-makers, developers of national and international clinical guidelines, presented at national and international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals electronically and in print.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-098317
View details for Web of Science ID 001596276000001
View details for PubMedID 41093336
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12530365
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Comparative effectiveness of alternative initial doses of opioid agonist treatment for individuals with opioid use disorder: a protocol for a retrospective population-based study using target trial emulation in British Columbia, Canada
BMJ OPEN
2025; 15 (9): e098990
Abstract
Selecting an optimal initial dosage of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) balances effectiveness and safety, as initial doses that are too low may be insufficient, potentially prompting clients to seek unregulated drugs to alleviate withdrawal symptoms, which may increase the likelihood of treatment discontinuation. Conversely, initial doses that are too high carry a risk of overdose. As opioid tolerance levels have risen in the fentanyl era, linked population-level data capturing initial doses in the real world provide a valuable opportunity to refine existing guidance on optimal OAT dosing at treatment initiation. Our objective is to determine the comparative effectiveness of alternative initial doses of methadone, buprenorphine-naloxone and slow-release oral morphine at OAT initiation, as observed in clinical practice in British Columbia (BC), Canada.We propose a population-level retrospective observational study with a linkage of nine provincial health administrative databases in BC, Canada (1 January 2010 to 31 December 2022). Our study includes two time-to-event primary outcomes: OAT discontinuation and all-cause mortality during follow-up. We propose 'initiator' target trial analyses for each medication using both propensity score weighting and instrumental variable analyses to compare the effect of different initial OAT doses on the hazard of time-to-OAT discontinuation and all-cause mortality. A range of sensitivity analyses will be used to assess the robustness of the results.The protocol, cohort creation and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by Providence Health Care Research Ethics Board and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. Results will be disseminated to local advocacy groups and decision-makers, national and international clinical guideline developers, presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals electronically and in print.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2025-098990
View details for Web of Science ID 001563663100001
View details for PubMedID 40889985
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12406891
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LASSO-Based Survival Prediction Modeling with Multiply Imputed Data: A Case Study in Tuberculosis Mortality Prediction
AMERICAN STATISTICIAN
2026; 80 (1): 77-88
View details for DOI 10.1080/00031305.2025.2526545
View details for Web of Science ID 001543848700001
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Comparative effectiveness of missed dose protocols of opioid agonist treatment in British Columbia, Canada: protocol for a population-based target trial emulation
BMJ OPEN
2025; 15 (7): e098318
Abstract
Methadone and buprenorphine/naloxone are effective medications for people with opioid use disorder; however, interruptions in daily dosing are common and diminish the benefits of these medications. While clinical guidelines in most North American jurisdictions, including British Columbia (BC), recommend dose adjustment after treatment interruptions to varying levels of specificity, the evidence to support these recommendations is limited. We aim to estimate the comparative effectiveness of alternative dose adjustment strategies on subsequent overdose-related acute care visits and discontinuation of opioid agonist treatment in BC, Canada.Using a linkage of nine health administrative databases, we propose a population-level retrospective cohort study of adults aged 18 years or older in BC who initiated methadone or buprenorphine/naloxone between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2022. We will specify parallel hypothetical trials, known as target trials, for methadone interruptions of 1-3 days, 4 days and 5-14 days, and buprenorphine/naloxone interruptions of 1-5 days and 6-14 days. Following the index interruption, the primary outcomes are the time to overdose-related acute care visits and treatment discontinuation (interruptions lasting >14 days), with time to all-cause acute care visits as a secondary outcome. The intention-to-treat effect will be estimated using both propensity score and instrumental variable approaches. A range of sensitivity analyses will assess the robustness of our results, including cohort and timeline restriction, alternative definitions of exposure and outcome and alternative estimation strategies.The protocol, cohort creation and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by Providence Health Care Research Institute and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. All data are deidentified, securely stored and accessed in accordance with provincial privacy regulations. Results will be disseminated to local advocacy groups and decision-makers, national and international clinical guideline developers, presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals electronically and in print.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-098318
View details for Web of Science ID 001538012900001
View details for PubMedID 40701585
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12306210
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High-Dimensional Disease Risk Score for Dealing With Residual Confounding Bias in Estimating Treatment Effects With a Survival Outcome
PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGY AND DRUG SAFETY
2025; 34 (7): e70172
Abstract
Health administrative databases often contain no information on some important confounders, leading to residual confounding in the effect estimate. We aimed to explore the performance of high-dimensional disease risk score (hdDRS) to deal with residual confounding bias for estimating causal effects with survival outcomes.We used health administrative data of 49 197 individuals in British Columbia to examine the relationship between tuberculosis infection and time-to-development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We designed a plasmode simulation exploring the performance of eight hdDRS methods that varied by different approaches to fit the risk score model and also examined results from high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS) and traditional regression adjustment. The log-hazard ratio (log-HR) was the target parameter with a true value of log(3).In the presence of strong unmeasured confounding, the bias observed was -0.11 for the traditional method and -0.047 for the hdPS method. The bias ranged from -0.051 to -0.058 for hdDRS methods when risk score models were fitted to the full cohort and -0.045 to -0.049 when risk score models were fitted only to unexposed individuals. All methods showed comparable standard errors and nominal bias-eliminated coverage probabilities. With weak unmeasured confounding, hdDRS and hdPS produced approximately unbiased estimates. Our data analysis, after addressing residual confounding, revealed an 8%-11% higher CVD risk associated with tuberculosis infection.Our findings support the use of selected hdDRS methods to address residual confounding bias when estimating treatment effects with survival outcomes. In particular, the hdDRS method using rate-based risk score modeling on unexposed individuals consistently exhibited the least bias. However, the hdPS method showed comparable performance across most evaluated scenarios. We share reproducible R codes to facilitate researchers' adoption and further evaluation of these methods.
View details for DOI 10.1002/pds.70172
View details for Web of Science ID 001522812400001
View details for PubMedID 40619209
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12229743
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Simultaneously Dealing With Immortal Time Bias and Residual Confounding: A Case Study of a High-Dimensional Propensity Score Approach With a Nested Case-Control Framework in Multiple Sclerosis Research
PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGY AND DRUG SAFETY
2025; 34 (7): e70174
Abstract
Observational studies of time-dependent treatments often face immortal time bias and residual confounding, complicating treatment effect estimation. We implemented a high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS) analysis within a nested case-control (NCC) framework to address both biases simultaneously.We used a retrospective cohort of 19 360 individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) in British Columbia, Canada, to examine the relationship between disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) and all-cause mortality. A 1:4 NCC analysis addressed immortal time bias, and hdPS was applied to handle residual confounding. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of findings across various hdPS parameters and matching strategies.We matched a total of 3209 cases to 12 293 controls in the NCC analysis, and demonstrated a 28% reduction in mortality risk associated with exposure to DMDs (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62-0.84) in the NCC-hdPS analysis. Sensitivity analyses using different propensity score estimation techniques and control-matching strategies yielded consistent results, with HRs ranging between 0.70 and 0.77.This study offers a practical framework for addressing immortal time bias and residual confounding simultaneously, improving the validity of effect estimates in real-world studies. We shared reproducible R codes for researchers to facilitate the adoption of this methodology in their research.
View details for DOI 10.1002/pds.70174
View details for Web of Science ID 001513952600001
View details for PubMedID 40552744
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12186589
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Enhancing risk prediction base on health administrative data using high-dimensional prediction model
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
2025; 184: 111857
Abstract
Health administrative datasets often do not contain important clinical variables for predicting the risk of medical outcomes. However, they often contain a wide range of health-care variables that can be used to develop a high-dimensional prediction model (hdPM) that compensates for the lack of clinical predictors. We aimed to compare the predictive performance of an hdPM with a conventional model that relies only on investigator-specified clinical predictors.Using data on 2923 individuals diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB), a Cox proportional hazards model was used to simulate a time-to-event outcome using plasmode simulation. We considered two scenarios: whether strong or weak predictors were unavailable in the development sample. Conventional and hdPMs were fitted without and with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) shrinkage and were compared in terms of internally validated time-dependent c-statistic and calibration.The hdPMs had a better time-dependent c-statistic in predicting TB mortality and also outperformed the conventional model in terms of time-dependent c-statistic in our simulations. Compared to a c-statistic of 0.78 for the conventional model with a strong unobserved predictor, LASSO-based hdPMs had a c-statistic of 0.90. While non-penalized hdPMs exhibited overfitting, LASSO-based hdPMs demonstrated superior cross-validated discrimination and calibration. Results were consistent in sensitivity analyses with varying numbers of additional health-care variables and different outcome types.Health administrative data can compensate for the lack of known and important clinical variables with many health-care variables from the linked databases, especially in hdPMs with LASSO-regularization, substantially enhance predictive accuracy and offer a robust approach for risk stratification and assessment in epidemiological research.Researchers develop prediction models with only clinical variables. But health administrative data often do not contain some clinical variables. For example, smoking, weight, height, physical activity, and diet data are unavailable. They do have codes such as International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9/10 diagnostic codes. We transformed these codes into binary and count variables. We created models to predict tuberculosis mortality. The models were not very accurate when using only clinical variables. Accuracy improved when we added the codes. We can use this kind of model in policy and research. For example, we can identify people at high mortality risk. We can then design interventions for the high-risk group.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111857
View details for Web of Science ID 001517369400002
View details for PubMedID 40451476
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Examining the Role of Race/Ethnicity and Sex in Modifying the Association Between Early Smoking Initiation and Mortality: A 20-Year NHANES Analysis
AJPM FOCUS
2025; 4 (2)
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.focus.2024.100282
View details for Web of Science ID 001533989300001
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Comparative effectiveness of methadone take-home dose initiation in British Columbia, Canada: protocol for a population-based retrospective cohort study using target trial guidelines
BMJ OPEN
2025; 15 (3): e095198
Abstract
Due to inferior safety profile and higher risk of diversion than buprenorphine/naloxone, guidelines typically recommend stringent eligibility criteria such as daily witnessed ingestion of methadone for at least 12 weeks before considering take-home doses. Recent research has focused on whether or not to initiate take-home methadone doses, often using pandemic-era data when temporary prescribing changes provided a natural experiment on the impact of access to take-home doses. However, none of these studies adequately examined the optimal timing and criteria for safely starting take-home doses to enhance treatment outcomes. To determine the optimal timing for initiating methadone take-home doses, we will compare the effects of different initiation times on time to treatment discontinuation, all-cause mortality and acute-care visits among individuals who completed methadone induction in British Columbia, Canada, from 2010 to 2022.We propose emulating a target trial using linked population-level health administrative data for all individuals aged 18 or older living in British Columbia, Canada, completing methadone induction between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2022. The exposure strategies will include no take-home dosing and take-home dose initiation in ≤4, 5-12, 13-24 and 25-52 weeks since completed induction. The outcomes will include the time to treatment discontinuation, all-cause mortality and acute-care visits. We propose a per-protocol analysis with a clone-censor-weighting approach to address the immortal time bias implicit in the comparison of alternative take-home dose initiation times. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses, including cohort restrictions, study timeline variations, eligibility criteria modifications and outcome reclassifications, are proposed to assess the robustness of our results.The protocol, cohort creation and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by Providence Health Care Research Ethics Board and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. Results will be disseminated to local advocacy groups and decision-makers, national and international clinical guideline developers, presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-095198
View details for Web of Science ID 001438737200001
View details for PubMedID 40044208
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12107636
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Evaluating the Role of High-Dimensional Proxy Data in Confounding Adjustment in Multiple Sclerosis Research: A Case Study
PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGY AND DRUG SAFETY
2025; 34 (2): e70112
Abstract
Given the historical use of limited confounders in multiple sclerosis (MS) studies utilizing administrative health data, this brief report evaluates the impact of incorporating high-dimensional proxy information on confounder adjustment in MS research. We have implemented high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS) and high-dimensional disease risk score (hdDRS) methods to assess changes in effect estimates for the association between disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) and all-cause mortality in an MS cohort from British Columbia (BC), Canada.We conducted a population-based retrospective study using linked administrative databases from BC, including health insurance registries, demographics, physician visits, hospitalizations, prescriptions, and vital statistics. The cohort comprised 19 360 individuals with MS, followed from January 1, 1996, to December 31, 2017. DMD exposure was defined as at least 180 days of use for beta-interferon or glatiramer acetate, or at least 90 days for other DMDs. The outcome was time to all-cause mortality. We compared Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for investigator-specified covariates with those incorporating additional empirical covariates using hdPS and hdDRS methods.In the unadjusted analysis, DMD exposure was associated with a 69% lower risk of mortality (HR 0.31; 95% CI: 0.27-0.36). Adjusting for investigator-specified covariates, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.65-0.89). HdPS analyses showed a 20%-23% lower mortality risk (aHRs: 0.77 to 0.80), while hdDRS analyses indicated a 19%-21% reduction (aHRs: 0.79 to 0.81).Incorporating high-dimensional proxy information resulted in minor variations in effect estimates compared to traditional covariate adjustment. These findings suggest that the impact of residual confounding in the question under consideration may be modest. Further research should explore additional data dimensions and replicate these findings across different datasets.
View details for DOI 10.1002/pds.70112
View details for Web of Science ID 001411737800001
View details for PubMedID 39901338
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC11791124
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Problem of pain in the USA: evaluating the generalisability of high-impact chronic pain models over time using National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data
BMJ PUBLIC HEALTH
2025; 3 (1)
Abstract
High-impact chronic pain (HICP) significantly affects the quality of life for millions of U.S. adults, imposing substantial economic/healthcare burdens. Disproportionate effects are observed among racial/ethnic minorities and older adults.We leveraged the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) from 2016 (n=32,980), 2017 (n=26,700), and 2021 (n=28,740) to validate and develop analytical models for HICP. Initial models (2016 NHIS data) identified correlates associated with HICP, including hospital stays, diagnosis of specific diseases, psychological symptoms, and employment status. We assessed the models' generalizability and drew comparisons across time. We constructed five validation scenarios to account for variations in the availability of predictor variables across datasets and different time frames for pain assessment questions. We used logistic regression with LASSO and random forest techniques. We assessed model discrimination, calibration, and overall performance using metrics such as area under the curve (AUC), calibration slope, and Brier score.Scenario 1, validating the NHIS 2016 model against 2017 data, demonstrated excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.88-0.90) for both LASSO and random forest models. Subgroup-specific performance varied, with the lowest AUC among adults aged ≥65 years (0.81, 95% CI: 0.78-0.82) and the highest among Hispanic respondents (0.91, 95% CI: 0.88-0.94). Model calibration was generally robust, although underfitting was observed for Hispanic respondents (calibration slope: 1.31). Scenario 3, testing the NHIS 2016 model on 2021 data, showed reduced discrimination (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.81-0.83) and overfitting (calibration slopes < 1). De novo models based on 2021 data showed comparable discrimination (AUC: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.85-0.87) but poorer calibration when validated against older datasets.These findings underscore the potential of these models to guide personalized medicine strategies for HICP, aiming for more preventive rather than reactive healthcare. However, the model's broader applicability requires further validation in varied settings and global populations.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjph-2024-001628
View details for Web of Science ID 001555952300001
View details for PubMedID 39950130
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC11822865
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Problem of pain in the USA: evaluating the generalisability of high-impact chronic pain models over time using National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data.
BMJ public health
2025; 3 (1)
Abstract
High-impact chronic pain (HICP) significantly affects the quality of life for millions of U.S. adults, imposing substantial economic/healthcare burdens. Disproportionate effects are observed among racial/ethnic minorities and older adults.We leveraged the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) from 2016 (n=32,980), 2017 (n=26,700), and 2021 (n=28,740) to validate and develop analytical models for HICP. Initial models (2016 NHIS data) identified correlates associated with HICP, including hospital stays, diagnosis of specific diseases, psychological symptoms, and employment status. We assessed the models' generalizability and drew comparisons across time. We constructed five validation scenarios to account for variations in the availability of predictor variables across datasets and different time frames for pain assessment questions. We used logistic regression with LASSO and random forest techniques. We assessed model discrimination, calibration, and overall performance using metrics such as area under the curve (AUC), calibration slope, and Brier score.Scenario 1, validating the NHIS 2016 model against 2017 data, demonstrated excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.88-0.90) for both LASSO and random forest models. Subgroup-specific performance varied, with the lowest AUC among adults aged ≥65 years (0.81, 95% CI: 0.78-0.82) and the highest among Hispanic respondents (0.91, 95% CI: 0.88-0.94). Model calibration was generally robust, although underfitting was observed for Hispanic respondents (calibration slope: 1.31). Scenario 3, testing the NHIS 2016 model on 2021 data, showed reduced discrimination (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.81-0.83) and overfitting (calibration slopes < 1). De novo models based on 2021 data showed comparable discrimination (AUC: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.85-0.87) but poorer calibration when validated against older datasets.These findings underscore the potential of these models to guide personalized medicine strategies for HICP, aiming for more preventive rather than reactive healthcare. However, the model's broader applicability requires further validation in varied settings and global populations.
View details for DOI 10.15585/mmwr.mm6736a2
View details for PubMedID 39950130
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC11822865
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Benefits of Repeated Matched-Cohort and Nested Case-Control Analyses with Time-dependent Exposure in Observational Studies
STATISTICS IN BIOSCIENCES
2025; 17 (3): 709-737
View details for DOI 10.1007/s12561-024-09461-6
View details for Web of Science ID 001336261500001
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Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
LANCET NEUROLOGY
2024; 23 (4): 344-381
Abstract
Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View details for DOI 10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00038-3
View details for Web of Science ID 001270049900001
View details for PubMedID 38493795
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC10949203
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Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
2024
Abstract
Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View details for DOI 10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00007-0
View details for PubMedID 38518787
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Lancet (London, England)
2024
Abstract
Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View details for DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00476-8
View details for PubMedID 38484753
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Role of latent tuberculosis infection on elevated risk of cardiovascular disease: a population-based cohort study of immigrants in British Columbia, Canada, 1985-2019
EPIDEMIOLOGY & INFECTION
2023; 151: e68
Abstract
We investigated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) (Aim-1) and LTBI therapy (Aim-2) in British Columbia, a low-tuberculosis-incidence setting. 49,197 participants had valid LTBI test results. Cox proportional hazards model was fitted, adjusting for potential confounders. Compared with the participants who tested LTBI negative, LTBI positive was associated with an 8% higher CVD risk in complete case data (adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.08, 95% CI: 0.99-1.18), a statistically significant 11% higher risk when missing confounder values were imputed using multiple imputation (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.20), and 10% higher risk when additional proxy variables supplementing known unmeasured confounders were incorporated in the highdimensional disease risk score technique to reduce residual confounding (HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01-1.20). Also, compared with participants who tested negative, CVD risk was 27% higher among people who were LTBI positive but incomplete LTBI therapy (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.04-1.55), whereas the risk was similar in people who completed LTBI therapy (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.87-1.24). Findings were consistent in different sensitivity analyses. We concluded that LTBI is associated with an increased CVD risk in low-tuberculosis-incidence settings, with a higher risk associated with incomplete LTBI therapy and attenuated risk when therapy is completed.
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0950268823000559
View details for Web of Science ID 000980167600001
View details for PubMedID 37066967
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC10204137
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The Problem of Pain in the United States: A Population-Based Characterization of Biopsychosocial Correlates of High Impact Chronic Pain using the National Health Interview Survey.
The journal of pain
2023
Abstract
Over 20 million adults in the United States live with High Impact Chronic Pain (HICP), or chronic pain that limits life or work activities for ≥3 months. It is critically important to differentiate people with HICP from those who sustain normal activities although experiencing chronic pain. Therefore, we aim to help clinicians and researchers identify those with HICP by: (1) developing models that identify factors associated with HICP using the 2016 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and (2) evaluating the performances of those models overall and by sociodemographic subgroups (sex, age, and race/ethnicity). Our analysis included 32,980 respondents. We fitted logistic regression models with LASSO (a parametric model) and random forest (a nonparametric model) for predicting HICP using the whole sample. Both models performed well. The most important factors associated with HICP were those related to underlying ill-health (arthritis and rheumatism, hospitalizations, and emergency department visits) and poor psychological well-being. These factors can be used for identifying higher-risk sub-groups for screening for HICP. We will externally validate these findings in future work. We need future studies that longitudinally predict the initiation and maintenance of HICP, then use this information to prevent HICP and direct patients to optimal treatments. PERSPECTIVE: Our study developed models to identify factors associated with high-impact chronic pain (HICP) using the 2016 National Health Interview Survey. There was homogeneity in the factors associated with HICP by gender, age and race/ethnicity. Understanding these risk factors is crucial to support the identification of populations and individuals at highest risk for developing HICP and improve access to interventions that target these high-risk subgroups.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jpain.2023.03.008
View details for PubMedID 36965649
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Prevalence and Associated Factors with Ideal Cardiovascular Health Metrics in Bangladesh: Analysis of the Nationally Representative STEPS 2018 Survey
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
2022; 3 (4): 533-543
View details for DOI 10.3390/epidemiologia3040040
View details for Web of Science ID 001178439500001
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A multilevel assessment of the influence of education on women's uptake of institutional delivery services during childbirth in Bangladesh.
Midwifery
2022; 113: 103425
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Despite a significant decline over time, maternal mortality remains high in Bangladesh. Institutional delivery during childbirth is crucial to reducing maternal mortality, but uptake of institutional delivery services (IDS) remains suboptimal in Bangladesh. Though women's education plays a crucial role in the use of IDS, the educational status of the household head and area-level literacy rate also appear to act as predictors of IDS uptake. This study aims to assess the effect of the educational status of women and household heads as well as district-level adult literacy rates on the use of IDS during childbirth among women in Bangladesh.DESIGN: This study analyzed nationally representative cross-sectional survey data from the 2019 Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey.SETTING: Bangladesh.PARTICIPANTS: 9,207 currently married women aged 15-49 years who had at least one live birth in the two years preceding the survey were included in the study. The outcome measure was women's use of IDS during their last childbirth. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to explore the association between education status of women and household heads, and district (i.e., area unit) adult literacy rates and uptake of IDS among women in Bangladesh by controlling for other sociodemographic covariates and clustering.RESULTS: About 53% of women used IDS during childbirth. Adjusting for other factors and clustering, women with higher educational status, those living in households with higher-educated heads, and those in districts with greater adult literacy rates are more likely to use IDS, after controlling for key sociodemographic variables including wealth.CONCLUSIONS: Uptake of IDS in Bangladesh remains low, with education playing an important independent role in determining rates. The findings of the study provide empirical evidence for policymakers to design multi-modal educational programs targeted not only at literate women but also at household head (especially male) and communities where literacy (and equally importantly health literacy) may be variable or absent.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.midw.2022.103425
View details for PubMedID 35849912
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Infectious aetiologies of neonatal illness in south Asia classified using WHO definitions: a primary analysis of the ANISA study.
The Lancet. Global health
2022; 10 (9): e1289-e1297
Abstract
Globally, neonatal mortality accounts for almost half of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. Aetiological agents of neonatal infection are difficult to identify because the clinical signs are non-specific. Using data from the Aetiology of Neonatal Infections in south Asia (ANISA) cohort, we aimed to describe the spectrum of infectious aetiologies of acute neonatal illness categorised post-hoc using the 2015 WHO case definitions of critical illness, clinical severe infection, and fast breathing only.Eligible infants were aged 0-59 days with possible serious bacterial infection and healthy infants enrolled in the ANISA study in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. We applied a partial latent class Bayesian model to estimate the prevalence of 27 pathogens detectable on PCR, pathogens detected by blood culture only, and illness not attributed to any infectious aetiology. Infants with at least one clinical specimen available were included in the analysis. We assessed the prevalence of these aetiologies according to WHO's case definitions of critically ill, clinical severe infection, and infants with late onset, isolated fast breathing. For the clinical severe definition, we compared the prevalence of signs by bacterial versus viral aetiology.There were 934 infants (992 episodes) in the critically ill category, 3769 (4000 episodes) in the clinical severe infection category, and 738 (771 episodes) in the late-onset isolated fast breathing category. We estimated the proportion of illness attributable to bacterial infection was 32·7% in infants in the critically ill group, 15·6% in the clinical severe infection group, and 8·8% among infants with late-onset isolated fast breathing group. An infectious aetiology was not identified in 58-82% of infants in these categories. Among 4000 episodes of clinical severe infection, those with bacterial versus viral attribution had higher proportions of hypothermia, movement only when stimulated, convulsions, and poor feeding.Our modelled results generally support the revised WHO case definitions, although a revision of the most severe case definition could be considered. Clinical criteria do not clearly differentiate between young infants with and without infectious aetiologies. Our results highlight the need for improved point-of-care diagnostics, and further study into neonatal deaths and episodes with no identified aetiology, to ensure antibiotic stewardship and targeted interventions.The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
View details for DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00244-3
View details for PubMedID 35961352
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Key considerations for choosing a statistical method to deal with incomplete treatment adherence in pragmatic trials
PHARMACEUTICAL STATISTICS
2023; 22 (1): 205-231
Abstract
Pragmatic trials offer practical means of obtaining real-world evidence to help improve decision-making in comparative effectiveness settings. Unfortunately, incomplete adherence is a common problem in pragmatic trials. The commonly used methods in randomized control trials often cannot handle the added complexity imposed by incomplete adherence, resulting in biased estimates. Several naive methods and advanced causal inference methods (e.g., inverse probability weighting and instrumental variable-based approaches) have been used in the literature to deal with incomplete adherence. Practitioners and applied researchers are often confused about which method to consider under a given setting. This current work is aimed to review commonly used statistical methods to deal with non-adherence along with their key assumptions, advantages, and limitations, with a particular focus on pragmatic trials. We have listed the applicable settings for these methods and provided a summary of available software. All methods were applied to two hypothetical datasets to demonstrate how these methods perform in a given scenario, along with the R codes. The key considerations include the type of intervention strategy (point treatment settings, where treatment is administered only once versus sustained treatment settings, where treatment has to be continued over time) and availability of data (e.g., the extent of measured or unmeasured covariates that are associated with adherence, dependent confounding impacted by past treatment, and potential violation of assumptions). This study will guide practitioners and applied researchers to use the appropriate statistical method to address incomplete adherence in pragmatic trial settings for both the point and sustained treatment strategies.
View details for DOI 10.1002/pst.2258
View details for Web of Science ID 000836938600001
View details for PubMedID 36637242
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The association between rheumatoid arthritis and cardiovascular disease among adults in the United States during 1999-2018, and age-related effect modification in relative and absolute scales
ANNALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
2022; 71: 23-30
Abstract
To explore the rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-cardiovascular diseases (CVD) association in relative and absolute risk scales among US adults aged ≥20 years over time and the effect modification of the association by age.We analyzed aggregated data from all ten continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cycles. A sample of 35,062 complete-case subjects was considered. The design-based regressions were used to investigate the associations in relative and absolute scales.In relative scale, the CVD odds ratio was 2.32, 2.19, and 1.97 among adults with RA than no arthritis in 1999-2006, 2007-2012, and 2013-2018 cycles, respectively. This time trend was not statistically significant. The absolute risk estimates were 11, 10, and 9 per 100 CVD events. We also observed a significant effect modification by age; the higher relative risk among younger adults (<50 years) with RA and higher absolute risk in older adults (≥80 years) with RA were consistent across survey cycles.There is a significant association between RA and CVD among US adults in both relative and absolute risks. Moreover, age is a significant effect modifier for this association; but with opposing age-related trends in relative and absolute scales.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.annepidem.2022.03.005
View details for Web of Science ID 000810544800002
View details for PubMedID 35301105
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Residential area greenness and hypertension: a national assessment on urban adults in Bangladesh
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH
2023; 33 (8): 796-808
Abstract
This study investigated the associations between greenness and blood pressure (BP) metrics (systolic BP [SBP], diastolic BP [DBP], hypertension) among urban adults in Bangladesh and the potential mediation effects of body mass index (BMI) using 2011 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data for 2360 urban adults (aged ≥35 years). The Enhanced Vegetation Index was used as a measure of residential area greenness. Associations between greenness and BP metrics were estimated using linear and binary logistic regression models. We also conducted mediation analyses. Greater area-level greenness was inversely associated with SBP (β -1.33, 95%CI: -2.46, -.20), DBP (β -.83, 95%CI: -1.64, -.02), and hypertension (adjusted odds ratio .87, 95%CI: .77, .98). BMI substantially mediated associations between greenness and BP metrics. Adopting urban greening policies could reduce the risk of hypertension, thus can contribute to reduction of non-communicable disease burden in Bangladesh. Longitudinal studies are required to further investigate the causal pathways.
View details for DOI 10.1080/09603123.2022.2053662
View details for Web of Science ID 000777917900001
View details for PubMedID 35373666
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Analysis approaches to address treatment nonadherence in pragmatic trials with point-treatment settings: a simulation study
BMC MEDICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
2022; 22 (1): 46
Abstract
Two-stage least square [2SLS] and two-stage residual inclusion [2SRI] are popularly used instrumental variable (IV) methods to address medication nonadherence in pragmatic trials with point treatment settings. These methods require assumptions, e.g., exclusion restriction, although they are known to handle unmeasured confounding. The newer IV-method, nonparametric causal bound [NPCB], showed promise in reducing uncertainty compared to usual IV-methods. The inverse probability-weighted per-protocol [IP-weighted PP] method is useful in the same setting but requires different assumptions, e.g., no unmeasured confounding. Although all of these methods are aimed to address the same nonadherence problem, comprehensive simulations to compare performances of them are absent in the literature.We performed extensive simulations to compare the performances of the above methods in addressing nonadherence when: (1) exclusion restriction satisfied and no unmeasured confounding, (2) exclusion restriction is met but unmeasured confounding present, and (3) exclusion restriction is violated. Our simulations varied parameters such as, levels of adherence rates, unmeasured confounding, and exclusion restriction violations. Risk differences were estimated, and we compared performances in terms of bias, standard error (SE), mean squared error (MSE), and 95% confidence interval coverage probability.For setting (1), 2SLS and 2SRI have small bias and nominal coverage. IP-weighted PP outperforms these IV-methods in terms of smaller MSE but produces high MSE when nonadherence is very high. For setting (2), IP-weighted-PP generally performs poorly compared to 2SLS and 2SRI in term of bias, and both-stages adjusted IV-methods improve precision than naive IV-methods. For setting (3), IV-methods perform worst in all scenarios, and IP-weighted-PP produces unbiased estimates and small MSE when confounders are adjusted. NPCB produces larger uncertainty bound width in almost all scenarios. We also analyze a two-arm trial to estimate vitamin-A supplementation effect on childhood mortality after addressing nonadherence.Understanding finite sample characteristics of these methods will guide future researchers in determining suitable analysis strategies. Since assumptions are different and often untestable for IP-weighted PP and IV methods, we suggest analyzing data using both IP-weighted PP and IV approaches in search of a robust conclusion.
View details for DOI 10.1186/s12874-022-01518-8
View details for Web of Science ID 000756839100001
View details for PubMedID 35172746
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8849041
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Household drinking water <i>E. coli</i> contamination and its associated risk with childhood diarrhea in Bangladesh
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
2022; 29 (21): 32180-32189
Abstract
Faecal contamination (by Escherichia coli [E. coli]) of household drinking water can have adverse effects on child health, particularly increasing the episodes of childhood diarrhea; however, the evidence is scanty in Bangladesh. This study utilised data from the most recent nationally representative 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to investigate the relationship between E. coli concentration in household drinking water and diarrheal episodes among children aged under-5 years in Bangladesh. Childhood diarrhea was identified by asking the children's mothers or caregivers if they had a diarrheal episode in the 2 weeks preceding the survey. E. coli colonies were counted as colony-forming units (CFUs) per 100 ml of water and classified into three risk groups (low: < 1 CFU/100 ml; moderate: 1-10 CFU/100 ml; and high: > 10 CFU/100 ml). The design-adjusted logistic regression was used to estimate the association between drinking water E. coli risk groups and childhood diarrhea, adjusting for potential confounders. We observed a significant association between household drinking water E. coli contamination and diarrheal episodes among under-5 children. Compared to the children from households with a low risk of E. coli contamination in drinking water, children from households with a moderate risk of E. coli contamination were 1.68 times more likely to have diarrhea, which was 2.28 times among children from households with a high risk of E. coli contamination. Findings of the study have significant policy implications and urge to ensure safe water supplies, improve water management practices and modify hygiene behaviours to reduce episodes of childhood diarrhea.
View details for DOI 10.1007/s11356-021-18460-9
View details for Web of Science ID 000742959300004
View details for PubMedID 35015232
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Trends in Complementary Feeding Indicators and Intake from Specific Food Groups among Children Aged 6-23 Months in Bangladesh
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
2022; 19 (1)
Abstract
The present study aims to comprehensively analyse trends in complementary feeding indicators (Introduction of solid, semi-solid, and soft foods at 6-8 months (INTRO), Minimum Dietary Diversity (MDD), Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF) and Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD)) among children aged 6-23 months in Bangladesh. The study used data from four rounds (2007, 2011, 2014, and 2017-2018) of nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs). The Cochran-Armitage test was performed to capture the trends in complementary feeding practices and intake from specific food groups. BDHSs are periodically conducted cross-sectional surveys in all seven administrative divisions of Bangladesh. The present analysis was performed among 8116 children (1563 in 2007, 2137 in 2011, 2249 in 2014, and 2167 in 2017-2018) aged 6-23 months. Overall, a decreasing trend was observed in all the complementary feeding indicators except INTRO from 2007 to 2014, but a substantial increase in MDD, MMF and MAD was noted in 2017-2018. A statistically significant reduction in consumption from different food groups such as legumes and nuts (p < 0.001), dairy products (p = 0.001), vitamin-A-rich fruits or vegetables (p < 0.001), and other fruits and vegetables (p < 0.001) was also observed. However, a positive trend was noted in the consumption of grains/roots/tubers (p = 0.027), and meat/fish/egg (p < 0.001). After experiencing a significant decreasing trend during 2007-2014, the recent BDHS indicates improvements in all complementary feeding indicators among young children in Bangladesh, which calls for integrated, multisectoral, and multicomponent interventions to sustain this progress.
View details for DOI 10.3390/ijerph19010550
View details for Web of Science ID 000751268700001
View details for PubMedID 35010809
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8745020
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Prevalence and associated factors of metabolic syndrome among Bangladeshi adults: Evidence from a nation-wide survey
DIABETES EPIDEMIOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
2022; 5
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.deman.2021.100037
View details for Web of Science ID 001136704300003
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Exploring Factors Associated with Women's Willingness to Provide Digital Fingerprints in Accessing Healthcare Services: A Cross-Sectional Study in Urban Slums of Bangladesh
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
2022; 19 (1)
Abstract
Digital fingerprints are increasingly used for patient care and treatment delivery, health system monitoring and evaluation, and maintaining data integrity during health research. Yet, no evidence exists about the use of fingerprinting technologies in maternal healthcare services in urban slum contexts, globally. The present study aimed to explore the recently delivered women's willingness to give digital fingerprints to community health workers to access healthcare services in the urban slums of Bangladesh and identify the associated factors. Employing a two-stage cluster random sampling procedure, we chose 458 recently delivered women from eight randomly selected urban slums of Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Chi-square tests were performed for descriptive analyses, and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the factors associated with willingness to provide fingerprints. Overall, 78% of the participants reported that they were willing to provide digital fingerprints if that eased access to healthcare services. After adjusting for potential confounders, the sex of the household head, family type, and household wealth status were significantly associated with the willingness to provide fingerprints to access healthcare services. The study highlighted the potentials of using fingerprints for making healthcare services accessible. Focus is needed for female-headed households, women from poor families, and engaging husbands and in-laws in mobile health programs.
View details for DOI 10.3390/ijerph19010040
View details for Web of Science ID 000749289700001
View details for PubMedID 35010299
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8751190
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Difficulties faced by older Rohingya (forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals) adults in accessing medical services amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh
BMJ GLOBAL HEALTH
2021; 6 (12)
Abstract
COVID-19 has seriously disrupted health services in many countries including Bangladesh. This research aimed to explore whether Rohingya (forcefully displaced Myanmar nationals) older adults in Bangladesh faced difficulties accessing medicines and routine medical care services amid this pandemic.This cross-sectional study was conducted among 416 Rohingya older adults aged 60 years and above residing in Rohingya refugee camps situated in the Cox's Bazar district of Bangladesh and was conducted in October 2020. A purposive sampling technique was followed, and participants' perceived difficulties in accessing medicines and routine medical care were noted through face-to-face interviews. Binary logistic regression models determined the association between outcome and explanatory variables.Overall, one-third of the participants reported difficulties in accessing medicines and routine medical care. Significant factors associated with facing difficulties accessing medicine included feelings of loneliness (adjusted OR (AOR) 3.54, 95% CI 1.93 to 6.48), perceptions that older adults were at the highest risk of COVID-19 (AOR 3.35, 95% CI 1.61 to 6.97) and required additional care during COVID-19 (AOR 6.89, 95% CI 3.62 to 13.13). Also, the notable factors associated with difficulties in receiving routine medical care included living more than 30 min walking distance from the health centre (AOR 3.57, 95% CI 1.95 to 6.56), feelings of loneliness (AOR 2.20, 95% CI 1.25 to 3.87), perception that older adults were at the highest risk of COVID-19 (AOR 2.85, 95% CI 1.36 to 5.99) and perception that they required additional care during the pandemic (AOR 4.55, 95% CI 2.48 to 8.35).Many Rohingya older adults faced difficulties in accessing medicines and routine medical care during this pandemic. This call for policy-makers and relevant stakeholders to re-assess emergency preparedness plans including strategies to provide continuing care.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007051
View details for Web of Science ID 000730304300001
View details for PubMedID 34903566
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8671847
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Association between Menstrual Hygiene Management and School Performance among the School-Going Girls in Rural Bangladesh
ADOLESCENTS
2021; 1 (3): 335-347
View details for DOI 10.3390/adolescents1030025
View details for Web of Science ID 001294100100001
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Older adults with non-communicable chronic conditions and their health care access amid COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: Findings from a cross-sectional study
PLOS ONE
2021; 16 (7): e0255534
Abstract
Burgeoning burden of non-communicable disease among older adults is one of the emerging public health problems. In the COVID-19 pandemic, health services in low- and middle-income countries, including Bangladesh, have been disrupted. This may have posed challenges for older adults with non-communicable chronic conditions in accessing essential health care services in the current pandemic. The present study aimed at exploring the challenges experienced by older Bangladeshi adults with non-communicable chronic conditions in receiving regular health care services during the COVID-19 pandemic.The study followed a cross-sectional design and was conducted among 1032 Bangladeshi older adults aged 60 years and above during October 2020 through telephone interviews. Self-reported information on nine non-communicable chronic conditions (osteoarthritis, hypertension, heart disease, stroke, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, chronic kidney disease, cancer) was collected. Participants were asked if they faced any difficulties in accessing medicine and receiving routine medical care for their medical conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The association between non-communicable chronic conditions and accessing medication and health care was analysed using binary logic regression model.Most of the participants aged 60-69 years (77.8%), male (65.5%), married (81.4%), had no formal schooling (58.3%) and resided in rural areas (73.9%). Although more than half of the participants (58.9%) reported having a single condition, nearly one-quarter (22.9%) had multimorbidity. About a quarter of the participants reported difficulties accessing medicine (23%) and receiving routine medical care (27%) during the pandemic, and this was significantly higher among those suffering from multimorbidity. In the adjusted analyses, participants with at least one condition (AOR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.33-2.85) and with multimorbidity (AOR: 4.75, 95% CI: 3.17-7.10) had a higher likelihood of experiencing difficulties accessing medicine. Similarly, participants with at least one condition (AOR: 3.08, 95% CI: 2.11-4.89) and with multimorbidity (AOR: 6.34, 95% CI: 4.03-9.05) were significantly more likely to face difficulties receiving routine medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic.Our study found that a sizeable proportion of the older adults had difficulties in accessing medicine and receiving routine medical care during the pandemic. The study findings highlight the need to develop an appropriate health care delivery pathway and strategies to maintain essential health services during any emergencies and beyond. We also argue the need to prioritise the health of older adults with non-communicable chronic conditions in the centre of any emergency response plan and policies of Bangladesh.
View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0255534
View details for Web of Science ID 000685248200016
View details for PubMedID 34324556
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8320993
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Household cooking fuels associated with elevated blood pressure among adult women: a national-wide assessment in Bangladesh
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
2021; 28 (47): 67814-67821
Abstract
Household air pollution from cooking fuel may have adverse health effects, particularly among women from countries like Bangladesh, where women participate in most household cooking activities. However, little is known about how cooking fuel influences adult women's blood pressure (BP) status in Bangladesh. This study assessed the association between household cooking fuel and women's BP in Bangladesh. Data of 6543 women (aged ≥18 years) from the latest nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and health survey 2017-18 were used in this study. This survey collected data on various variables, including women's BP and cooking fuel. Multivariable regression models were used for this evaluation. About 82.3% of women were living in households using solid cooking fuel. Women's average systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were 121.5 mmHg and 80.7 mmHg, respectively, and 25% had elevated BP. Women residing in a household using solid fuel had significantly higher SBP (β 3.76 mmHg, 95 confidence interval (CI) 2.00, 5.51) and DBP (β 1.17 mmHg, 95% CI 0.17, 2.18) relative to women from households using clean fuel. The odds of elevated BP was 58% higher (adjusted odds ratio, 1.58, 95% CI 1.19, 2.11) among women residing in households using solid fuels compared to their counterparts. Usage of solid cooking fuel was predominantly high and negatively impacted women's BP status in Bangladesh. In addition to other lifestyle change interventions, improved cooking facilities and clean cooking fuel provision and monitoring could be important initiatives to reduce the burden of elevated BP among women.
View details for DOI 10.1007/s11356-021-15344-w
View details for Web of Science ID 000673836400009
View details for PubMedID 34268688
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Assessment of non-communicable disease related lifestyle risk factors among adult population in Bangladesh
JOURNAL OF BIOSOCIAL SCIENCE
2022; 54 (4): 651-671
Abstract
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which can largely be prevented by controlling avoidable lifestyle-related risk factors, are rapidly penetrating the entire world, including developing countries. The present study aimed to assess NCD lifestyle risk factors among the adult population in Bangladesh. The data used in the study were collected as part of a population-based cross-sectional survey covering rural and urban areas of Bangladesh conducted in 2015-16 (N=11,982 adults aged ≥35 years). The lifestyle factors considered were diet (daily fruit and vegetable consumption and extra salt intake with meals), sleeping patterns, smoking, smokeless tobacco consumption, and physical activity. The study found that approximately 18.5% of participants had a non-daily consumption of fruit or vegetables, 46.6% used extra salt with their meals, 11.8% reported sleeping <7 hours daily, 25.7% smoked tobacco, 60.9% used smokeless tobacco and 69.7% were less physically active. The prevalence of improper lifestyle practices relevant to NCDs, such as an inadequate diet, poor sleeping pattern, tobacco consumption, and low physical activity, was significantly higher among older adults, women, the uneducated, the unemployed, urban dwellers, and people from rich households. The study found that NCD-related lifestyle characteristics were poorly compliant with standard guidelines among many adult populations in Bangladesh. The findings can inform preventative strategies to control the overwhelming NCD burden in Bangladesh, such as the promotion of physical exercise, healthy eating, and the cessation of the use of tobacco products.
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0021932021000286
View details for Web of Science ID 000768656500001
View details for PubMedID 34158137
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Prevalence and associated factors of hypertension among South African adults: findings from the Demographic and Health Survey 2016
JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH-HEIDELBERG
2023; 31 (6): 967-977
View details for DOI 10.1007/s10389-021-01607-w
View details for Web of Science ID 000661789600002
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Residential district multi-hazard risk is associated with childhood undernutrition: evidence from Bangladesh
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH
2022; 32 (9): 2005-2016
Abstract
Child undernutrition and natural disasters are major public health concerns in Bangladesh, but research into their relationship is lacking. This study assessed the association between residential district multi-hazard-risk and undernutrition among children aged less than 5 years (under-5) in Bangladesh. Data for 22,055 under-5 children were extracted from the 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey of Bangladesh. Multi-hazard risk was categorized as low (score<10), moderate (score 10-20), and high (score>20) using a combined score of four major hazards: tornado, cyclone, earthquake, and flood. We found that children from high multi-hazard risk districts were 19% more likely to be stunted and 23% more likely to be underweight compared to low-risk districts. However, wasting was not associated with multi-hazard risk. Strategies such as agricultural adaptation and coping mechanisms, long-term post-disaster nutritional response, extended periods of relief supports, and enhanced quality maternal and child care services may help to reduce undernutrition burdens in Bangladesh.
View details for DOI 10.1080/09603123.2021.1932766
View details for Web of Science ID 000657169700001
View details for PubMedID 34075819
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Association of household wealth and education level with hypertension and diabetes among adults in Bangladesh: a propensity score-based analysis
TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH
2021; 26 (9): 1047-1056
Abstract
To determine the association of household wealth and education level with hypertension and diabetes in Bangladesh using propensity score (PS) analyses.A nationally representative sample of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 was analysed to explore the research question. A weighted sample of 11 320 individuals was considered. Hypertension and diabetes were the outcomes of interest, and household wealth status (non-poor and poor) and education level (secondary/higher education and no secondary/higher education) were the exposure variables of interest. A person was defined as hypertensive if their average blood pressure was ≥140/90 mmHg or self-reported history of taking antihypertensive medications. Individuals were classified as diabetic if they had a Fasting Blood Glucose level of ≥7 mmol/l or reported taking prescribed medication for reducing high blood glucose or diabetes. We used the 1:1 nearest neighbour PS matching without replacement and PS weighting approaches to assess the association between the exposures and the outcome variables.Wealth status was significantly associated with diabetes but not with hypertension, while education status was significantly associated with neither diabetes nor hypertension. We also observed a significant interaction effect between household wealth status and education level with diabetes. The odds of diabetes were approximately 60% higher among adults from non-poor households and those without secondary/higher education.Diabetes prevention and control programs should focus on non-poor individuals, while hypertension prevention programs should target populations irrespective of educational attainment and wealth status.
View details for DOI 10.1111/tmi.13625
View details for Web of Science ID 000656703700001
View details for PubMedID 33991034
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Association between childhood overweight/obesity and urbanization in developing countries: evidence from Bangladesh
JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH-HEIDELBERG
2022; 30 (12): 2819-2828
View details for DOI 10.1007/s10389-021-01560-8
View details for Web of Science ID 000642849100002
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Exploring depressive symptoms and its associates among Bangladeshi older adults amid COVID-19 pandemic: findings from a cross-sectional study
SOCIAL PSYCHIATRY AND PSYCHIATRIC EPIDEMIOLOGY
2021; 56 (8): 1487-1497
Abstract
Depression, one of the most common mental disorders, is up-surging worldwide amid the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, especially among the older population. This study aims to measure prevalent depressive symptoms and its associates among older adults amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.This cross-sectional study was carried out among 1032 older Bangladeshi adults, aged 60 years and above, through telephone interviews in October 2020. We used a semi-structured questionnaire to collect data on participants' socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics, pre-existing medical conditions, and COVID-19-related information. Meanwhile, depressive symptoms were measured using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). The binary logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with depressive symptoms.Two-in-five participants showed depressive symptoms on the GDS-15 scale. Poor socioeconomic characteristic such as low family income, dependency on the family for living, recipient of financial support during the pandemic was associated with higher odds of depressive symptoms. Participants with pre-existing medical conditions had 91% higher odds of depressive symptoms. Social isolation, captured in terms of living alone (aOR = 2.11, 95% CI 1.11-4.01), less frequent communication during pandemic (aOR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.07-2.26), perceived loneliness (aOR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.47-3.45), and isolation from others (aOR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.62-3.70) were associated with higher odds of depressive symptoms.Our study found a sizeable proportion of study participants with depressive symptoms amidst the ongoing pandemic. The findings of the present study call for the urgent need for mental health support package targeting this vulnerable group of population.
View details for DOI 10.1007/s00127-021-02052-6
View details for Web of Science ID 000625472200002
View details for PubMedID 33661353
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC7930102
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Misconceptions about COVID-19 among older Rohingya (forcefully displaced Myanmar nationals) adults in Bangladesh: findings from a cross-sectional study
BMJ OPEN
2021; 11 (5): e050427
Abstract
Due to low health literacy and adverse situation in the camps, there are possibilities of misconceptions related to COVID-19 among the older Rohingya (forcefully displaced Myanmar nationals or FDMNs) adults in Bangladesh. The present research aimed to assess the level of misconceptions and the factors associated with it among the older FDMNs in Bangladesh.Cross-sectional.A selected Rohingya camp situated in Cox's Bazar, a southeastern district of Bangladesh.Information was collected from 416 conveniently selected FDMNs who were aged 60 years and above.The primary outcome was misconceptions related to the spread, prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Information on 14 different locally relevant misconceptions was gathered, each was scored as one, and obtained a cumulative score, ranging from 0 to 14, with a higher score indicating a higher level of misconceptions. A multiple linear regression model explored the factors associated with misconceptions.The participants had an average of five misconceptions. The most prevalent misconceptions were: everyone should wear personal protective equipment when outside (84.6%) and its prevention by nutritious food (62.5%) and drinking water (59.3%). Other notable misconceptions included the spread of COVID-19 through mosquito bites (42%) and its transmissions only to the non/less religious person (31.4%). In regression analyses, memory or concentration problems, communication frequency with social networks, pre-existing conditions and receiving information from health workers were significantly associated with higher COVID-19 misconceptions. These misconceptions were less likely among those overwhelmed by COVID-19, having COVID-19 diagnosed friends or family members and receiving information from friends and family.Overall, we found that misconceptions were prevalent among the older FDMNs in Bangladesh. The associations have important implications for programmes to prevent and manage COVID-19 in these settings. Health workers need to be adequately trained to provide clear communication and counter misconceptions.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050427
View details for Web of Science ID 000692022900027
View details for PubMedID 34049923
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8166478
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Factors associated with mobile phone usage to access maternal and child healthcare among women of urban slums in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study
BMJ OPEN
2021; 11 (4): e043933
Abstract
With the acute shortage of human resources and infrastructure, mobile phones can be a critical tool for accessing health services and strengthening health systems in Bangladesh. Yet, there is a scarcity of evidence on the use of mobile phones in this context for accessing health services. In this study, we sought to explore the current use of mobile phones for accessing maternal and child healthcare and its determinants among recently delivered women in urban slums of Bangladesh.The data were collected through interviewing 800 recently delivered women from eight slums of Dhaka city of Bangladesh during May and June 2018. The study followed a cross-sectional design and a two-stage cluster random sampling procedure was followed. A pretested structured questionnaire was employed to collect information. Chi square tests were performed for descriptive analyses and a multilevel binary logistic regression model was executed to explore the determinants of mobile phone usage for accessing maternal and childcare among the participants.Overall, 73.8% of study participants used mobile phones for accessing maternal and child healthcare. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants' age, husband's occupation, sex of household head, women's ownership of mobile phones and household wealth status were found to be significantly associated with higher odds of using mobile phones to access maternal and child healthcare.The study highlighted the possibility of implementing large-scale mobile health (mHealth) interventions in slum settlements for accessing maternal and child healthcare and is a sustainable mitigation strategy for the acute health worker crisis in Bangladesh. The findings of this study are particularly crucial for policymakers and practitioners while they revise the health policy to incorporate mHealth interventions as highlighted in the recently initiated Digital Health Strategy of Bangladesh.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043933
View details for Web of Science ID 000639756700007
View details for PubMedID 33837099
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8043001
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Role of hypertension in the association of overweight and obesity with diabetes among adults in Bangladesh: a population-based, cross-sectional nationally representative survey
BMJ OPEN
2021; 11 (7): e050493
Abstract
Overweight and obesity (OWOB) is a modifiable risk factor for both hypertension and diabetes. However, the association between OWOB and diabetes among Bangladeshi adults and how hypertension may mediate this relationship are not well explored. This study aimed to examine (1) whether OWOB is independently associated with diabetes among Bangladeshi adults, (2) whether this association is mediated by hypertension, and (3) the effect modification by wealth status and place of residence in the relationships.We used data of 9305 adults aged ≥18 years from the most recent nationally representative cross-sectional study of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-2018. Design-based logistic regression was used to assess the association between OWOB and diabetes, and counterfactual framework-based weighting approach was used to evaluate the mediation effect of hypertension in the OWOB-diabetes relationship. We used stratified analyses for the effect modifications.The prevalence of OWOB, diabetes and hypertension was 48.5%, 11.7% and 30.3%, respectively. We observed a significant association between OWOB and diabetes and a mediating role of hypertension in the OWOB-diabetes association. The odds of diabetes was 51% higher among adults with OWOB than those without OWOB (adjusted OR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.77). We observed that 18.64% (95% CI 9.84% to 34.07%) of the total effect of OWOB on the higher odds of diabetes was mediated through hypertension, and the mediation effect was higher among adults from non-poor households and from both rural and urban areas.Adult OWOB status is independently associated with diabetes in Bangladesh, and hypertension mediates this association. Therefore, prevention policies should target adults with both OWOB and hypertension, particularly those from non-poor households and from both rural and urban areas, to reduce the growing burden of diabetes and its associated risk.
View details for DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050493
View details for Web of Science ID 000691830900015
View details for PubMedID 34330863
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC8327840
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Community-level environmental characteristics predictive of childhood stunting in Bangladesh-a study based on the repeated cross-sectional surveys
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH
2022; 32 (3): 473-486
Abstract
Coastal morphology makes Bangladesh vulnerable to environmental hazards and climate change. Therefore, environmental characteristics may shape population health, including child health. The prevalence of stunting among under-five aged (U5) children is high in Bangladesh. However, there is a lack of research on environmental predictors of stunting. This study aimed to assess the association between community-level environmental characteristics and stunting using pooled data from the three latest Bangladesh demographic and health surveys (BDHS). According to the multilevel model, rainfall, distance to protected areas, and vegetation index showed a nonlinear association with stunting. The temperature was inversely, and distance to water bodies was positively related to stunting. Overall, results evidence the environmental characteristics are predictive of stunting, and these characteristics should be taken into account during intervention design to minimise the negative effects of environmental change on child health. Further research is also necessary to comprehend the causal pathways between environmental characteristics and stunting in Bangladesh.
View details for DOI 10.1080/09603123.2020.1777947
View details for Web of Science ID 000549612800001
View details for PubMedID 32602734
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Association between Household Livestock Ownership and Childhood Stunting in Bangladesh - A Spatial Analysis
JOURNAL OF TROPICAL PEDIATRICS
2020; 66 (3): 248-256
Abstract
Livestock is an integrated part of agriculture, yet the relationship between household livestock ownership and child nutrition is a significant knowledge gap. The present study aimed to assess the association between household livestock ownership and childhood stunting and to explore the geospatial variations at district level in Bangladesh. A complete data of 19 295 children aged below 5 years were extracted from the latest Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2012-13. The tropical livestock unit (TLU) score calculated as a weighted value for each livestock and categorized as low, medium, and high using tertile. A hierarchical Bayesian spatial logistic model was used to assess the association between TLU and childhood stunting. Children from the household with high TLU were 10% less likely to be stunted (adjusted posterior odds ratio: 0.90, 95% credible interval: 0.84-0.97) after controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, morbidity, place of residence and spatial effects. There was also a substantial spatial variation in childhood stunting across districts in Bangladesh with the highest burden in the Northern and North-Eastern regions. The positive effect of household livestock ownership on reducing child stunting suggests that, in addition to nutritional intervention in Bangladesh, efforts to strengthen livestock production would be beneficial for improving child nutrition status. However, a small effect size may be owing to the lack of dietary diversity, livestock health and productivity data as well as the complexity of the relationship, requiring further study. Furthermore, a significant regional disparity in stunting highlighted the importance of spatial targeting during the design of interventions and implementation.
View details for DOI 10.1093/tropej/fmz061
View details for Web of Science ID 000569057100002
View details for PubMedID 32452522
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Probabilistic estimation of seismic parameters for Bangladesh
ARABIAN JOURNAL OF GEOSCIENCES
2020; 13 (6)
View details for DOI 10.1007/s12517-020-5250-y
View details for Web of Science ID 000521040200001
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Prevalence and Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Diseases among Bangladeshi Adults: Findings from a Cross-sectional Study
JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GLOBAL HEALTH
2019; 9 (3): 176-184
Abstract
Ever rising prevalence of Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) is a major challenge for the health sector in Bangladesh. This study aimed to explore the prevalence of CVD and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors associated with it in Bangladesh. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey following a two-stage cluster random sampling procedure. The present analysis was performed among 12,338 respondents aged ≥35 years, selected from rural areas and urban slums. Information was gathered using a structured questionnaire, whereas measurements were taken using standardized procedures. Logistic regression with exchangeable correlation structure among clusters was executed to explore the association. About 30% of participants had hypertension, 5% diabetes, 20% obesity; 77% were either smokers or consumed smokeless tobacco, and 28% were physically inactive. The prevalence of CVD was 4.5% (stroke: 1.8% and heart diseases: 3.2%). After adjusting for potential confounders, hypertension, diabetes, body mass index, extra salt intake, daily sleep, tiredness, age, gender, occupation, administrative division, and wealth quintile were found to be significantly associated with CVD. The study highlighted that the prevalence of CVD is high in Bangladesh, and its associated risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes are on the rise, especially in the older population, women, and high-income groups. Therefore, immediate public health intervention is warranted to address the issue.
View details for DOI 10.2991/jegh.k.190531.001
View details for Web of Science ID 000484417500006
View details for PubMedID 31529935
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC7310816
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Maternal nutrition counselling is associated with reduced stunting prevalence and improved feeding practices in early childhood: a post-program comparison study
NUTRITION JOURNAL
2019; 18 (1): 47
Abstract
Despite progress, suboptimal feeding practices and undernutrition particularly in the form of stunting still remains a major issue among children aged less than 5 years in Bangladesh. Since mothers are the primary caregivers of young children, maternal nutrition counselling can be effective in improving knowledge and practices on child feeding. The Building Resources Across Communities (BRAC) initiated a nutrition counselling intervention using its essential health care (EHC) skeleton in 114 sub-districts of Bangladesh in 2012. This study assessed the role of this intervention on the prevalence of stunting and feeding practices among children aged less than 5 years.The data was collected as part of a nationwide cross-sectional survey, which followed a two-stage cluster random sampling procedure and was conducted between October 2015 and January 2016. The present study analyzed the information of 3009 mother-children dyads from two selected survey areas: i) areas where the EHC package was delivered (comparison; n = 1452), ii) areas with EHC plus nutrition counselling package (intervention; n = 1557) was delivered. The Chi-square test was done to compare the child feeding practices and stunting prevalence between intervention and comparison. The degree of strength of the association of stunting and the intervention was estimated using a mixed-effect logistic regression model.The study revealed that the prevalence of stunting was significantly lower in areas where the intervention was delivered compared to the comparison areas (29% vs. 37%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, after adjusting for administrative zone, household wealth quintile, child's age, gender, maternal age, education, occupation, cluster disparity, and variation between study groups, it was seen that the risk of stunting was 25% lower in the intervention areas compared to the comparison areas (aOR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.60-0.94; P = 0.012). Optimal child feeding practices were also more common among mothers from intervention areas than those of the comparison areas (exclusive breastfeeding: 72.7 vs. 59.4%, P = 0.008; feeding 4+ food groups: 42.9 vs. 34.1%, P < 0.001; having minimum acceptable diet: 31.2 vs. 25.3%, P = 0.017; feeding multiple micro-nutrient powder: 16.2 vs. 7.4%, P < 0.001).The study highlighted that nutrition counselling of mothers may be effective in reducing childhood stunting with concomitant improvement in optimal feeding practices in children under 5 years of age. The frontline community health workers can be trained to counsel mothers on optimal child feeding practices and this could help reduce the prevalence of stunting.
View details for DOI 10.1186/s12937-019-0473-z
View details for Web of Science ID 000483565200001
View details for PubMedID 31455363
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC6712751
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Trends and determinants of perinatal mortality in Bangladesh
PLOS ONE
2019; 14 (8): e0221503
Abstract
Although the perinatal mortality rate (PNMR) has been reduced over time in Bangladesh, the rate is still very high. Only a few studies explored the determinants of high PNMR in Bangladesh, yet most of them were small-scale or conducted for stillbirths and early neonatal deaths separately. The objective of this study was to explore the trends in and determinants of perinatal deaths in Bangladesh which would be an advanced step in effective policies to tackle the issue.The data used for this study was extracted from four rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. We considered the outcome of the 26604 pregnancies reaching seven months of their gestation. The trends of perinatal mortality was assessed using the Cochran-Armitage test, while the logistic regression with generalized estimating equation (GEE) to account for the clustering effect was implemented to explore the association between perinatal mortality and its risk factors.The PNMR was significantly reduced from 64 (95% CI: 57-73) to 41 (95% CI: 35-48) per 1000 pregnancies between 2004 and 2014 (stillbirths: 34 to 19 and early neonatal deaths: 30 to 22). After adjusting for potential covariates in the model, we found that administrative division, type of cooking fuel, child's gender, maternal occupation, body mass index, birth interval, history of miscarriage, previous deaths of children, total number of under 5 children, mode of delivery, type of delivery, access to participation in decision making, paternal education and occupation were significantly associated with perinatal deaths.The study highlights the importance of strengthening proper postnatal care services in the healthcare facilities. Alongside this, effort should also be stressed to ensure proper pregnancy care and to improve the socio-economic condition of the households to address the issue.
View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0221503
View details for Web of Science ID 000485041400039
View details for PubMedID 31442258
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC6707592
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Individual-, maternal- and household-level factors associated with stunting among children aged 0-23 months in Bangladesh
PUBLIC HEALTH NUTRITION
2019; 22 (1): 85-94
Abstract
Childhood stunting remains a major public health concern in Bangladesh. To accelerate the reduction rate of stunting, special focus is required during the first 23 months of a child's life when the bulk of growth takes place. Therefore the present study explored individual-, maternal- and household-level factors associated with stunting among children under 2 years of age in Bangladesh.Data were collected through a nationwide cross-sectional survey conducted between October 2015 and January 2016. A two-stage cluster random sampling procedure was applied to select 11 428 households. In the first stage, 210 enumerations areas (EA) were selected with probability proportional to EA size (180 EA from rural areas, thirty EA from urban slums). In the second stage, an average of fifty-four households were selected from each EA through systematic random sampling.Rural areas and urban slums of Bangladesh.ParticipantsA total of 6539 children aged 0-23 months.Overall, 29·9 % of the children were stunted. After adjusting for all potential confounders in the modified Poisson regression model, child's gender, birth weight (individual level), maternal education, age at first pregnancy, nutrition (maternal level), administrative division, place of residence, socio-economic status, food security status, access to sanitary latrine and toilet hygiene condition (household level) were significantly associated with stunting.The study identified a number of potentially addressable multilevel risk factors for stunting among young children in Bangladesh that should be addressed through comprehensive multicomponent interventions.
View details for DOI 10.1017/S1368980018002926
View details for Web of Science ID 000454693500010
View details for PubMedID 30404673
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC10260563
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Exploring the gap between coverage, access, and utilization of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) among the households of malaria endemic districts in Bangladesh
MALARIA JOURNAL
2018; 17: 455
Abstract
Malaria is still a major public health concern in Bangladesh in spite of mass distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) as a key preventive strategy. There might be a considerable gap between coverage and actual use of nets by the population in endemic areas. This study intended to assess the gap between coverage, access to and use of LLINs among the households in malaria-endemic settings in Bangladesh.This cross-sectional study collected data from 2640 households of 13 endemic districts of Bangladesh through three-stage cluster random sampling. The gap between coverage, access and use of LLINs were calculated using the procedure established by the Roll Back Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group. To support the quantitative findings, qualitative data were also collected through in-depth interview, focus group discussion and key informant interview and analysed accordingly.Of 2640 total households, 77.4% (n = 2044) possessed at least two LLINs, 56.8% (n = 1499) had insufficient access, and 18.8% (n = 495) had excess LLINs. Members of 77.9% (n = 2056) households had used LLINs the previous night and 6.0% (n = 68) did not use LLINs despite having sufficient access. LLIN use was lower in non-hill track areas, in Bengali community, in richer households and households with more than four members. Moreover, qualitative findings revealed that the major reasons behind not using LLINs were insufficient access, sleeping outside the home, migration, perceived low efficacy of LLINs, or fear of physical side effects.Closing the access gap by providing enough nets through solid investment and well-designed behavioural change interventions are crucial for achieving and sustaining universal coverage.
View details for DOI 10.1186/s12936-018-2610-0
View details for Web of Science ID 000452513800001
View details for PubMedID 30522487
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC6282300
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The association between daily 500 mg calcium supplementation and lower pregnancy-induced hypertension risk in Bangladesh
BMC PREGNANCY AND CHILDBIRTH
2018; 18: 406
Abstract
Evidence suggests that daily supplementation of 1500 to 2000 mg of calcium during pregnancy reduces pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH). However, the evidence on the efficacy of low-dose calcium supplementation on PIH is limited. This paper assesses the longitudinal correlation between low-dose calcium intake (500 mg daily) and change in blood pressure during pregnancy among a homogeneous population in terms of hypertension and pre-eclampsia.The study followed a retrospective cohort study design, and was carried out among 11,387 pregnant women from 10 rural upazilas (sub-districts) of Bangladesh where maternal nutrition initiative (MNI), implemented by Building Resources Across Communities (BRAC), was ongoing. The modified Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association (risk ratio) between consumption of calcium tablets and PIH.The present research found that women who consumed 500 mg/d calcium tablets for more than 6 months during their pregnancy had a 45% lower risk of developing hypertension compared to those who consumed less calcium (RR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.33-0.93).Daily supplementation of 500 mg oral calcium during pregnancy for at least 180 tablets is associated with a considerably reduced risk of PIH, but this study is unable to confirm whether this association is causal. The causal relationship needs to be confirmed through a large scale randomized controlled trial.
View details for DOI 10.1186/s12884-018-2046-0
View details for Web of Science ID 000447774200001
View details for PubMedID 30332997
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC6192122
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Role of parental education in reduction of prevalence of childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh
PUBLIC HEALTH NUTRITION
2018; 21 (10): 1845-1854
Abstract
Despite progress, levels of malnutrition among children in Bangladesh are among the highest in the world and this is one of the major causes of death in children. The pace of reduction in the prevalence of undernutrition among children is still relatively low. The present study aimed to examine the association between parental education and childhood undernutrition among Bangladeshi children under 5 years of age when adjusting for potential risk factors.The data set was extracted from a nationally representative survey based on a cross-sectional study, the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2014.The base survey was conducted using a two-stage stratified sample of households. In the first stage, 600 enumeration areas (EA) were selected with probability proportional to EA size (207 EA from urban areas, 393 EA from rural areas).A total of 7173 children under 5 years from 17 863 households were considered for the analysis. A modified Poisson regression model was implemented to the data for assessing the relationship between parental education and childhood undernutrition when demographic and socio-economic covariates for the child, parents, households and clustering were adjusted.Higher parental education level was associated with lower levels of stunting and underweight, but not with wasting. Maternal and paternal education were both significantly associated with the reduction in prevalence of childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh.Paternal education appears equally as important as maternal education in reducing undernutrition prevalence among children under 5 years in Bangladesh.
View details for DOI 10.1017/S1368980018000162
View details for Web of Science ID 000451002000008
View details for PubMedID 29455704
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC10260740
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Identifying factors influencing contraceptive use in Bangladesh: evidence from BDHS 2014 data
BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
2018; 18: 192
Abstract
Birth control is the conscious control of the birth rate by methods which temporarily prevent conception by interfering with the normal process of ovulation, fertilization, and implantation. High contraceptive prevalence rate is always expected for controlling births for those countries that are experiencing high population growth rate. The factors that influence contraceptive prevalence are also important to know for policy implication purposes in Bangladesh. This study aims to explore the socio-economic, demographic and others key factors that influence the use of contraception in Bangladesh.The contraception data are extracted from the 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data which were collected by using a two stage stratified random sampling technique that is a source of nested variability. The nested sources of variability must be incorporated in the model using random effects in order to model the actual parameter effects on contraceptive prevalence. A mixed effect logistic regression model has been implemented for the binary contraceptive data, where parameters are estimated through generalized estimating equation by assuming exchangeable correlation structure to explore and identify the factors that truly affect the use of contraception in Bangladesh.The prevalence of contraception use by currently married 15-49 years aged women or their husbands is 62.4%. Our study finds that administrative division, place of residence, religion, number of household members, woman's age, occupation, body mass index, breastfeeding practice, husband's education, wish for children, living status with wife, sexual activity in past year, women amenorrheic status, abstaining status, number of children born in last five years and total children ever died were significantly associated with contraception use in Bangladesh.The odds of women experiencing the outcome of interest are not independent due to the nested structure of the data. As a result, a mixed effect model is implemented for the binary variable 'contraceptive use' to produce true estimates for the significant determinants of contraceptive use in Bangladesh. Knowing such true estimates is important for attaining future goals including increasing contraception use from 62 to 75% by 2020 by the Bangladesh government's Health, Population & Nutrition Sector Development Program (HPNSDP).
View details for DOI 10.1186/s12889-018-5098-1
View details for Web of Science ID 000423873600003
View details for PubMedID 29378546
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC5789662