Chenfei Qu

All Publications

• Different Carbon Neutrality Strategies Induce Substantially Divergent Health Benefits and Distributional Impacts in China. Environmental science & technology Gao, D., Qu, C., Zhao, B., Wang, S., Huang, X., Sun, Y., Jiang, Y., Xu, Z., Wang, X., He, Y., Shen, J., Yin, D., Zheng, H., Shi, H., Jiang, Z., Zeng, X. W., Zhu, Y., Chu, B., He, H., Zhang, X., Zhang, D. 2025

  Abstract

  China's 2060 carbon neutrality target is critical for mitigating air pollution and safeguarding public health. However, the potential variations in the expected benefits across different carbon neutrality strategies and the associated distributional impacts remain unclear. Here, we established three representative technological pathways toward carbon neutrality, and investigated their multifaceted health benefits in terms of improved ambient and indoor air quality in China. We found that, relative to a no-carbon-neutrality baseline, a high solar and wind scenario yields the largest reductions in ambient and additional indoor PM2.5 concentration (6.0 and 7.0 μg m-3) and averts 1.5 (1.2-1.8) million premature deaths in 2060; this almost quadruples avoided deaths under a high biomass energy scenario and doubles that under a high carbon capture and storage scenario. After subtraction of costs, the net benefits of the high solar and wind scenario are up to 5.9 times those of other scenarios, and are the highest across provinces with varying income levels. However, the high solar and wind scenario imposes 2-3 times the costs on low-income provinces compared to other scenarios, suggesting that distributional policies, such as interprovincial financial transfer from higher- to low-income provinces, could be implemented for a more stable transition.

  View details for DOI 10.1021/acs.est.5c12120

  View details for PubMedID 41384760

• Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China's net-zero pathway. Nature communications Zhong, J., Zhang, X., Zhang, D., Wang, D., Guo, L., Peng, H., Huang, X., Wang, Z., Lei, Y., Lu, Y., Qu, C., Zhang, X., Miao, C. 2025; 16 (1): 8102

  Abstract

  Due to sizeable anthropogenic CO2 emissions, China's transition towards carbon neutrality will reshape global CO2 emissions, offering insights into warming levels, extreme events, overshoot, tipping points, and regional climate impacts. Here we develop an interdisciplinary and multi-model framework integrating up-to-date emissions inventory and China's net-zero pathway to construct a reality-aligned, sector-specific combined scenario (SSP2-com) for greenhouse gases and air pollutants across global-to-regional, national-to-provincial, and multi-resolution-grid scales. SSP2-com projects CO₂ peaking in concentration globally by 2062, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2072, driven by Asia-Pacific-particularly China-via energy and industrial reductions. Climate emulators show global temperatures initially track SSP2-4.5 but later diverge onto a distinct trajectory, reaching 2.01 °C by 2100 ( ~ 3.2 Watt m⁻²) and dropping below 2 °C within the first post-2100 decade, relevant to the Paris Agreement target. We further propose an evolving SSP2-com+ framework with updated trajectories to enhance timely alignment and cooperation. Our findings indicate balanced, nationally-determined decarbonization can stabilize warming near 2 °C without early unprecedented decarbonization rates or large-scale carbon removal, aligning better with current status and commitments for more plausible Earth system model inputs.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-62983-5

  View details for PubMedID 40883267

  View details for PubMedCentralID 9385658

• Climate Actions, Persistent Pollutants, and Human Health: A Call for Integrated Assessments ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Niu, S., Qiu, M., Li, L., Qu, C., Zhang, D. 2024

  View details for DOI 10.1021/acs.est.4c07707

  View details for Web of Science ID 001300729700001

  View details for PubMedID 39197124

• Rate-Based Emissions Trading with Overlapping Policies: Insights from Theory and an Application to China Fischer, C., Qu, C., Goulder, L. NBER working paper. 2024 (w33197):
• Exploring US-China climate cooperation through linked carbon markets ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH LI, A. F., Qu, C., Zhang, X. 2023; 14 (1): 145-155

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.005

  View details for Web of Science ID 000951562600001

• China’s nationwide Co2 emissions trading system: A general equilibrium assessment Goulder, L., Long, X., Qu, C., Zhang, D. NBER working paper. 2023 (w31809):
• Understanding China's largest sustainability experiment: Atmospheric and climate governance in the Yangtze river economic belt as a lens JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION Peng, M., Xu, H., Qu, C., Xu, J., Chen, L., Duan, L., Hao, J. 2021; 290

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125760

  View details for Web of Science ID 000620275500013

• ESTIMATING HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF CLIMATE POLICIES IN CHINA: AN APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL EMISSIONS-AIR QUALITY-CLIMATE-HEALTH (REACH) FRAMEWORK CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS Qu, C., Yang, X., Zhang, D., Zhang, X. 2020; 11 (3)

  View details for DOI 10.1142/S2010007820410043

  View details for Web of Science ID 000586835300005

• Are China's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) so bad? SCIENCE BULLETIN Jiang, K., He, C., Qu, C., Dai, C., Zhang, Y., Chen, S., Xiang, P. 2019; 64 (6): 364-366

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.scib.2019.01.005

  View details for Web of Science ID 000472930200006

  View details for PubMedID 36659723