Connor Nolan

All Publications

• Additionality, baselines, and the proper accounting for land-based climate change mitigation efforts OXFORD OPEN CLIMATE CHANGE Nolan, C., Van Paasschen, C. A., Field, C. B. 2024; 4 (1)

  View details for DOI 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae012

  View details for Web of Science ID 001605592800011

• Low-elevation conifers in California's Sierra Nevada are out of equilibrium with climate. PNAS nexus Hill, A. P., Nolan, C. J., Hemes, K. S., Cambron, T. W., Field, C. B. 2023; 2 (2): pgad004

  Abstract

  Since the 1930s, California's Sierra Nevada has warmed by an average of 1.2 ∘ C. Warming directly primes forests for easier wildfire ignition, but the change in climate also affects vegetation species composition. Different types of vegetation support unique fire regimes with distinct probabilities of catastrophic wildfire, and anticipating vegetation transitions is an important but undervalued component of long-term wildfire management and adaptation. Vegetation transitions are more likely where the climate has become unsuitable but the species composition remains static. This vegetation climate mismatch (VCM) can result in vegetation conversions, particularly after a disturbance like wildfire. Here we produce estimates of VCM within conifer-dominated forests in the Sierra Nevada. Observations from the 1930s Wieslander Survey provide a foundation for characterizing the historical relationship between Sierra Nevada vegetation and climate before the onset of recent, rapid climate change. Based on comparing the historical climatic niche to the modern distribution of conifers and climate, ∼19.5% of modern Sierra Nevada coniferous forests are experiencing VCM, 95% of which is below an elevation of 2356 m. We found that these VCM estimates carry empirical consequences: likelihood of type-conversion increased by 9.2% for every 10% decrease in habitat suitability. Maps of Sierra Nevada VCM can help guide long-term land management decisions by distinguishing areas likely to transition from those expected to remain stable in the near future. This can help direct limited resources to their most effective uses-whether it be protecting land or managing vegetation transitions-in the effort to maintain biodiversity, ecosystem services, and public health in the Sierra Nevada.

  View details for DOI 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad004

  View details for PubMedID 36874277

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC9976749

• The future of ecosystem assessments is automation, collaboration, and artificial intelligence ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Garcia, C., Bagstad, K. J., Brun, J., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Dhu, T., Murray, N. J., Nolan, C. J., Ricketts, T. H., Sosik, H. M., Sousa, D., Willard, G., Halpern, B. S. 2023; 18 (1)

  View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/acab19

  View details for Web of Science ID 000907705100001

• Fire effects on the persistence of soil organic matter and long-term carbon storage NATURE GEOSCIENCE Pellegrini, A. F. A., Harden, J., Georgiou, K., Hemes, K. S., Malhotra, A., Nolan, C. J., Jackson, R. B. 2021

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41561-021-00867-1

  View details for Web of Science ID 000734148700002

• A latest Pleistocene and Holocene composite tephrostratigraphic framework for northeastern North America QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS Jensen, B. J. L., Davies, L. J., Nolan, C., Pyne-O'Donnell, S., Monteath, A. J., Ponomareva, V., Portnyagin, M., Booth, R., Bursik, M., Cook, E., Plunkett, G., Vallance, J. W., Luo, Y., Cwynar, L. C., Hughes, P., Pearson, D. 2021; 272

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107242

  View details for Web of Science ID 000731926500001

• Constraints and enablers for increasing carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Nolan, C. J., Field, C. B., Mach, K. J. 2021

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s43017-021-00166-8

  View details for Web of Science ID 000652469900001

• Pollen-based climate reconstruction techniques for late Quaternary studies EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS Chevalier, M., Davis, B. A. S., Heiri, O., Seppa, H., Chase, B. M., Gajewski, K., Lacourse, T., Telford, R. J., Finsinger, W., Guiot, J., Kuhl, N., Maezumi, S., Tipton, J. R., Carter, V. A., Brussel, T., Phelps, L. N., Dawson, A., Zanon, M., Valle, F., Nolan, C., Mauri, A., de Vernal, A., Izumi, K., Holmstrom, L., Marsicek, J., Goring, S., Sommer, P. S., Chaput, M., Kupriyanov, D. 2020; 210

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103384

  View details for Web of Science ID 000588283400033

• PREDICTING PALEOCLIMATE FROM COMPOSITIONAL DATA USING MULTIVARIATE GAUSSIAN PROCESS INVERSE PREDICTION ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS Tipton, J. R., Hooten, M. B., Nolan, C., Booth, R. K., McLachlan, J. 2019; 13 (4): 2363–88

  View details for DOI 10.1214/19-AOAS1281

  View details for Web of Science ID 000509780500015

• Comparing and improving methods for reconstructing peatland water-table depth from testate amoebae HOLOCENE Nolan, C., Tipton, J., Booth, R. K., Hooten, M. B., Jackson, S. T. 2019; 29 (8): 1350–61

  View details for DOI 10.1177/0959683619846969

  View details for Web of Science ID 000479265000008

• Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change SCIENCE Nolan, C., Overpeck, J. T., Allen, J. R. M., Anderson, P. M., Betancourt, J. L., Binney, H. A., Brewer, S., Bush, M. B., Chase, B. M., Cheddadi, R., Djamali, M., Dodson, J., Edwards, M. E., Gosling, W. D., Haberle, S., Hotchkiss, S. C., Huntley, B., Ivory, S. J., Kershaw, A., Kim, S., Latorre, C., Leydet, M., Lezine, A., Liu, K., Liu, Y., Lozhkin, A. V., McGlone, M. S., Marchant, R. A., Momohara, A., Moreno, P. I., Mueller, S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Shen, C., Stevenson, J., Takahara, H., Tarasov, P. E., Tipton, J., Vincens, A., Weng, C., Xu, Q., Zheng, Z., Jackson, S. T. 2018; 361 (6405): 920–23

  Abstract

  Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

  View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aan5360

  View details for Web of Science ID 000443547000039

  View details for PubMedID 30166491

• Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years CLIMATE OF THE PAST Shuman, B. N., Routson, C., McKay, N., Fritz, S., Kaufman, D., Kirby, M. E., Nolan, C., Pederson, G. T., St-Jacques, J. 2018; 14 (5): 665–86

  View details for DOI 10.5194/cp-14-665-2018

  View details for Web of Science ID 000433220900001

• Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years CLIMATE OF THE PAST Marlon, J. R., Pederson, N., Nolan, C., Goring, S., Shuman, B., Robertson, A., Booth, R., Bartlein, P. J., Berke, M. A., Clifford, M., Cook, E., Dieffenbacher-Krall, A., Dietze, M. C., Hessl, A., Hubeny, J., Jackson, S. T., Marsicek, J., McLachlan, J., Mock, C. J., Moore, D. J. P., Nichols, J., Peteet, D., Schaefer, K., Trouet, V., Umbanhowar, C., Williams, J. W., Yu, Z. 2017; 13 (10): 1355–79

  View details for DOI 10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017

  View details for Web of Science ID 000412938700002