Bio

Dr. Pablo Busch is an interdisciplinary researcher with training in industrial and environmental engineering, public policy, energy systems, industrial ecology, and statistics. His research broadly focuses on scientific analyses to support a clean energy transition, and to help identify risks to equity and sustainability in the emerging energy transition mineral supply chain. Pablo's main research goal is to conduct scientific analysis to diverse environmental and climate change problems, and to translate key insights from research into a digestible and actionable format for decision-making. His research is fueled by tools from engineering, statistics, geographic information systems, economics and public policy.

Professional Education

  • PhD, University of California, Davis, Energy Systems (2025)
  • MS, University of California, Davis, Statistics (2022)
  • MS, University of California, Davis, Environmental Policy & Management (2022)
  • Civil Engineer, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Industrial Engineering, Diploma in Environmental Engineering (2016)

Stanford Advisors

Contact

  • Academic
    pmbusch@stanford.edu
    University - Scholar Department: Department of Earth System Science Position: Postdoctoral Scholar

Additional Info

Links

All Publications

  • Who Will Have Enough? Battery Mineral Demand and Sufficiency in Vehicle Producing Countries ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Busch, P., Pares, F., Tal, G., Kendall, A. 2025

    Abstract

    Minerals for lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles (EVs) are key to transport decarbonization. Previous studies have quantified regional battery mineral demand and circularity potential based on EV sales. However, it is EV producing (not purchasing) countries that require minerals, and second-hand vehicles are traded internationally, removing them from their original country of sale. Using dynamic country-level material flow analysis from 2024-2050 that includes trade of new and used EVs, we estimate mineral demand and domestic reserves for lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite, and analyze strategies to reduce mineral deficits. Results show global mineral reserve sufficiency, but shortfalls in EV producing countries, making them dependent on imports even in robust recycling scenarios. China only has sufficiency for graphite, while the United States only for lithium in scenarios with smaller lithium-ion batteries or high recycling rates. Minerals in end-of-life LIBs can be recovered through recycling, reducing the geographical concentration of supply; however, the potential to meet mineral demand via recycling in vehicle producing countries is low. Supra-national recycling strategies, strengthened trade relationships between mineral and EV producing countries, and mineral demand reduction actions that support electrification targets would improve circularity potential and reduce mineral supply risks.

    View details for DOI 10.1021/acs.est.5c12420

    View details for Web of Science ID 001609341600001

    View details for PubMedID 41196391

  • Effects of demand and recycling on the when and where of lithium extraction NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Busch, P., Chen, Y., Ogbonna, P., Kendall, A. 2025

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41893-025-01561-5

    View details for Web of Science ID 001498942400001

  • Short-term exposure to fine particulate pollution and elderly mortality in Chile COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Busch, P., Rocha, P., Lee, K., Cifuentes, L., Tai, X. 2024; 5 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s43247-024-01634-x

    View details for Web of Science ID 001299849300003

  • Future of Global Electric Vehicle Supply Chain: Exploring the Impact of Global Trade on Electric Vehicle Production and Battery Requirements TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD Busch, P., Pares, F., Chandra, M., Kendall, A., Tal, G. 2024; 2678 (11): 1468-1482

    View details for DOI 10.1177/03611981241244797

    View details for Web of Science ID 001235930000001

  • Life cycle assessment, <i>quo vadis</i>? Supporting or deterring greenwashing? A survey of practitioners ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE-ADVANCES Brandao, M., Busch, P., Kendall, A. 2024; 3 (2): 266-273

    View details for DOI 10.1039/d3va00317e

    View details for Web of Science ID 001134878900001

  • A systematic review of life cycle greenhouse gas intensity values for hydrogen production pathways RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS Busch, P., Kendall, A., Lipman, T. 2023; 184

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113588

    View details for Web of Science ID 001047313300001

  • Literature review on policies to mitigate GHG emissions for cement and concrete RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING Busch, P., Kendall, A., Murphy, C. W., Miller, S. A. 2022; 182

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106278

    View details for Web of Science ID 000793392400006

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9069-1401