Bio


Steve Davis is a highly-cited researcher and expert in earth system science, emissions and energy scenarios, climate impacts and solutions, and corporate climate strategy. He is a Professor of Earth System Science in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and leads the Sustainable Solutions Lab, a research group dedicated to quantifying how different human activities are affecting climate and air quality, how those environmental changes in turn jeopardize human wellbeing, and the relative priority of solutions.

Steve was a Contributing Author of two Working Group III chapters in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), serves on the Scientific Steering Committee of the Global Carbon Project, was the Lead Author of the Mitigation chapter in the U.S. Fifth National Climate Assessment, and is a member of the Technical Council of the Science Based Targets Initiative.

Prior to his science career, Steve worked as a lawyer to venture-backed companies in Silicon Valley, and holds degrees from Stanford University, the University of Virginia School of Law and the University of Florida, where he double-majored in Political Science and Philosophy.

Academic Appointments


2025-26 Courses


Stanford Advisees


All Publications


  • Pathways to net-zero emissions from aviation NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Bergero, C., Gosnell, G., Gielen, D., Kang, S., Bazilian, M., Davis, S. J. 2023; 6 (4)
  • Forest carbon protocols underestimate climate-driven carbon loss risks. Nature Wu, C., Badgley, G., Goulden, M. L., Randerson, J. T., Trugman, A. T., Wang, J. A., Yang, L., Acil, N., Cook-Patton, S. C., Cullenward, D., Davis, S. J., Williams, C. A., Anderegg, W. R. 2026

    Abstract

    Although the reduction of fossil fuel emissions remains of the utmost importance to mitigate climate change, maintaining and enhancing carbon sinks in forests have been widely promoted as nature-based climate solutions1-4. However, disturbances that could result in losses of forest carbon stocks are poorly accounted for when estimating the potential role of forests in climate mitigation5-7. This makes it difficult to appropriately size 'buffer pools': a mechanism designed to compensate for unintended carbon losses in carbon crediting projects8,9. Here we use forest inventory, satellite data, disturbance modelling and machine learning to map reversal (carbon loss) risk in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from natural disturbance. Across CONUS forests, we show that climate change increases the 100-year risk of carbon losses from natural disturbance, particularly in California and the Intermountain West. The current buffer pool of the largest CONUS forest climate mitigation programme is likely too small by an average factor of 6.3, and this could range from 2.2- to 8.0-fold too small when considering uncertainties around future climate scenarios, disturbance severity and other carbon pools. We provide spatially explicit maps of the long-term risks to forest carbon losses from natural disturbances, which highlight that current methodologies used for constructing carbon offset buffer pools require revisions to succeed under climate change.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-026-10571-y

    View details for PubMedID 42162435

  • Global carbon emissions and decarbonization in 2025: Climate chronicles NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Deng, Z., Zhu, B., Davis, S. J., Ciais, P., Liu, Z. 2026
  • Scaling traffic variables from sensors sample to the entire city at high spatiotemporal resolution with machine learning: applications to the Paris megacity (vol 4 , 035010 , 2024) ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH: INFRASTRUCTURE AND SUSTAINABILITY Bonnemaizon, X., Ciais, P., Zhou, C., Arous, S., Davis, S. J., Megel, N. 2026; 6 (1)
  • The effect of land costs on the economic and sustainability performance of solar photovoltaics in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Chen, S., Lu, X., Hao, J., Virgüez, E., Caldeira, K., Davis, S. J. 2026; 123 (8): e2512930123

    Abstract

    Scaling up solar photovoltaics (PV) is essential for global decarbonization, particularly in China-the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. Despite leading in PV installations, China has yet to widely adopt the more efficient tracking technologies for capturing solar radiation (12% adoption rate), in stark contrast to the United States (90%). To examine the rationale behind this divergence and its consequences, we develop a spatially explicit, integrated model to evaluate and compare tracking and fixed-tilt systems in China-comparing power generation, land use, cost, sustainability, and policy resilience. We find that although single-axis tracking provides electricity gains and appears technically more cost-effective, rising land prices in China could offset its benefits. Land costs increase the levelized cost of electricity by 20% for tracking systems, compared to 8% for fixed-tilt, making the latter cheaper in real-world conditions. Consequently, land-efficient fixed-tilt systems are favored, despite requiring 18 to 26% more panels for the same output-intensifying material demands. Under a 6 PWh target in 2060, current land policies would drive 59% of electricity toward fixed-tilt. Reducing soft land costs could increase the adoption of tracking systems to 63% and reduce installed capacity by up to 8% (219 GW) under the same electricity output, compared with an increasing costs scenario, but would expand land use by 35% or 12.9 thousand km2. Our findings underscore how land economics and policy shape renewable technology deployment. They highlight critical trade-offs between energy yield, land use, and material demand, offering insights for designing more balanced and resilient decarbonization strategies.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2512930123

    View details for PubMedID 41712647

  • Global daily CO2 emissions from 1970 to 2024. Scientific data Li, T., Wang, L., Qiu, Z., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Deng, Z., Zhao, Y., Peters, G. P., Ke, P., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hao, Y., Sun, T., Huang, X., Jackson, R. B., Friedlingstein, P., Lu, C., Cui, D., Liu, Z. 2026

    Abstract

    As extreme temperature events become increasingly frequent, there is a growing need for daily CO2 emissions data to quantify their impacts. However, such data are available only from 2019 onward. To address this gap, we compiled over two million near-real-time observations of electricity generation, traffic activity, natural gas consumption or heating degree days (HDD), and industrial output since 2019, and used these high-frequency data to construct a daily CO2 emissions dataset for 2019-2024. We then applied machine-learning models and degree-day methods to disaggregate non-residential and residential monthly CO2 emissions for 1970-2018 to a daily basis. The historical dataset was then merged with the 2019-2024 dataset to produce a global daily CO2 emissions dataset spanning 1970 to 2024 for 14 countries and regions, covering four sectors: power, industry, residential, and transport (including ground transport and aviation). The resulting long-term dataset will enable robust analyses of extreme-temperature impacts on emissions and enhance the accuracy of chemical transport model inversions of carbon fluxes.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41597-026-06621-9

    View details for PubMedID 41735339

  • Air quality improvement masks global cooling from CO2 reductions under China's carbon neutrality policies for half a century. Nature communications Zhao, B., Wang, X., Wang, Y., Sun, Y., Gao, D., Ge, Q., Gao, Y., Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Shindell, D., Davis, S. J., Lin, G., Wang, Y., Chu, B., Jiang, Z., He, H., He, K., Hao, J., Wang, S. 2026

    Abstract

    Achieving carbon neutrality and improving air quality are pivotal sustainability strategies for the Global South countries. However, their global climate impacts over a realistic timescale remain unclear. Here we evaluate the climate impacts of China's carbon neutrality and Beautiful China policies using a fully coupled Earth system model and updated future anthropogenic emission scenarios. We find that, for an unexpectedly long time through ~2070, China's air pollutant reductions can cause a large global surface warming (0.12 ± 0.09 K for 2050-2070) that almost offsets the cooling from concurrent CO2 emission reduction (0.16 ± 0.05 K for 2050-2070), compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This warming is mainly attributed to reduced SO2 and organic matter emissions. Moreover, combined air pollutants and CO2 declines create a striking hemispheric temperature change contrast, because of the stronger aerosol-induced heating in the Northern Hemisphere. Considering that most future air pollutant reductions represent synergistic effects of carbon neutrality policies, the associated inevitable warming effect over decades highlights the importance of exploring more aggressive policies including early carbon neutrality, methane reductions, and negative carbon emissions.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-026-68586-y

    View details for PubMedID 41565653

  • The importance of multiregional accounting for corporate carbon emissions. Nature communications Davis, S. J., Dumit, A., Li, M., Maldonado, Y., Steffen, M., Stevenson, M., Boldyreva, T., Suh, S. 2025

    Abstract

    Corporations routinely use environmentally-extended input-output models to estimate and report greenhouse gas emissions upstream in their supply chains. However, the most widely used models assume that supply chains and emissions intensities of industries match those of a single region-usually the U.S. or the U.K. Here, we use a high-resolution multiregional input-output model to demonstrate the scale and pattern of emissions that may be missed by single-region models. We find that the upstream emissions of the companies reporting to CDP are together greater by 2.0 gigatons of CO2-equivalent emissions (~10%) when estimated by a multiregional model instead of a U.S.-based single-region model, with the largest differences in manufacturing sectors of moderate emissions intensity. Widespread adoption of multiregional models could thus improve the accuracy of corporate emissions inventories and help prioritize primary data collection and emissions reduction efforts, often by shifting focus to energy- and emissions-intensive sectors of industrializing nations.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-67759-5

    View details for PubMedID 41422076

  • Ownership of power plants stranded by climate mitigation NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Fofrich Navarro, R., Liebermann, L., Moore, F. C., Shearer, C., Davis, S. J. 2025
  • Hydroclimatic risk considerations in energy transitions Balancing thermal power decarbonization and energy security under hydroclimatic risks NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Li, S., Liu, J., Yan, G., Davis, S. J., Aghakouchak, A., Liu, X., Hong, C., Zheng, Y., Jiang, Q., Liu, Y., Qin, Y. 2025
  • Global hydroclimatic risks and strategic decommissioning pathways for thermal power units NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Li, S., Liu, Y., Liu, J., Yan, G., Schmied, H., Davis, S. J., Aghakouchak, A., Wanders, N., Jiang, Q., Zheng, Y., Bosmans, J., Liu, X., Hong, C., Qin, Y. 2025
  • Economic development, air conditioning and adaptation to warming ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Wongel, A., Freese, L. M., Virguez, E., Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K. 2025; 20 (12)
  • Drivers of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from road transport in US urban areas ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS Bonnemaizon, X., Ciais, P., Zhou, C., Ben Arous, S., Megel, N., Berghauser, G., Davis, S. 2025; 7 (12)
  • The global hydrogen budget. Nature Ouyang, Z., Jackson, R. B., Saunois, M., Canadell, J. G., Zhao, Y., Morfopoulos, C., Krummel, P. B., Patra, P. K., Peters, G. P., Dennison, F., Gasser, T., Archibald, A. T., Arora, V., Baudoin, G., Chandra, N., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Feron, S., Guo, F., Hauglustaine, D., Jones, C. D., Jones, M. W., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Knauer, J., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Melton, J. R., Nabel, J. E., O'Sullivan, M., Pétron, G., Poulter, B., Rogelj, J., Sandoval Calle, D., Smith, P., Suntharalingam, P., Tian, H., Wang, C., Wiltshire, A. 2025; 648 (8094): 616-624

    Abstract

    Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2-5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010-2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr-1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr-1, respectively, for 2010-2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01-0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1

    View details for PubMedID 41407901

    View details for PubMedCentralID 10976891

  • A near-real time daily European Power Consumption and Carbon Intensity Dataset (ECON-PowerCI). Scientific data Zhang, S., Zhao, W., Zhu, B., Yan, C., Song, X., Jiang, H., Fang, J., Ciais, P., Xuan, N., Gentine, P., Davis, S. J., Liu, Z., Qiu, G. Y. 2025; 12 (1): 1693

    Abstract

    We present a near-real-time daily European Consumption-based Power Carbon Intensity Dataset (ECON-PowerCI), developed from the CarbonMonitor power production dataset for Europe. Spanning from January 2015 to December 2024, the dataset encompasses 35 European countries, with daily updates and a one-day latency. ECON-PowerCI provides consumption-based power carbon intensity at the national level, accounting for cross-border electricity net imports in the country of consumption. By integrating ENTSO-E (The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity) data, ECON-PowerCI enables comprehensive analysis of carbon intensity trends shaped by cross-border transmissions, extreme weather events, and disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. This dataset facilitates in-depth study of the effect of cross-border electricity flows on national carbon footprints, providing insights for energy policy and climate resilience. The dataset also holds extensive research potential for power-related analyses and policy-making in Europe's interconnected power systems.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41597-025-05978-7

    View details for PubMedID 41145597

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12559187

  • Long-range PM2.5 pollution and health impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Nature Zhang, Q., Wang, Y., Xiao, Q., Geng, G., Davis, S. J., Liu, X., Yang, J., Liu, J., Huang, W., He, C., Luo, B., Martin, R. V., Brauer, M., Randerson, J. T., He, K. 2025

    Abstract

    Smoke from extreme wildfires in Canada adversely affected air quality in many regions in 20231,2. Here we use satellite observations, machine learning and a chemical transport model to quantify global and regional PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) exposure and human health impacts related to the 2023 Canadian wildfires. We find that the fires increased annual PM2.5 exposure worldwide by 0.17 μg m-3 (95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.26 μg m-3). North America had the largest increase in annual mean exposure (1.08 μg m-3; 0.82-1.34 μg m-3), but there were also increases in Europe (0.41 μg m-3; 0.32-0.50 μg m-3) owing to long-range transport. Annual mean PM2.5 exposure in Canada increased by 3.82 μg m-3 (3.00-4.64 μg m-3). In the USA, the contribution of the Canadian fires to increased PM2.5 was 1.49 μg m-3 (1.22-1.77 μg m-3), four times as large as the contribution from the 2023 wildfires originating in the USA. We find that 354 million (277-421 million) people in North America and Europe were exposed to daily PM2.5 air pollution caused by Canadian wildfires in 2023. We estimate that 5,400 (3,400-7,400) acute deaths in North America and 64,300 (37,800-90,900) chronic deaths in North America and Europe were attributable to PM2.5 exposure to the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Our results highlight the far-reaching PM2.5 pollution and health burden that large wildfires can have in a single year.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-025-09482-1

    View details for PubMedID 40931077

    View details for PubMedCentralID 6077721

  • Harmonized Annual Averaged Traffic Data at Street Segment Level for European Cities. Scientific data Bonnemaizon, X., Ciais, P., Zhou, C., Shi, Q., Mittakola, R. T., Goldmann, C., Ben Arous, S., Megel, N., Davis, S. J. 2025; 12 (1): 1365

    Abstract

    Traffic flow data in Europe are collected locally by city authorities using different systems and standards, making it difficult to compare cities or evaluate large-scale maps, such as those used for emission inventories. To address this gap, we compiled and harmonized publicly available traffic data for 36 European cities, linking geolocalized information to road segments, spanning years from 2015 to 2024 depending on data availability. Annual Average Daily (or Weekday) Traffic is provided, and supplementary variables (e.g., truck flow percentages and speed metrics) are included where available. The data are georeferenced, with geometries corresponding to each measurement location. The dataset was enriched with additional attributes through map matching of traffic measurement locations to OpenStreetMap. Code and methodology for transforming raw data into a uniform structure are documented in Python Jupyter Notebooks, ensuring transparency and reproducibility. This dataset in a unified format facilitates cross-city comparisons and supports applications in environmental science, including the estimation of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions, as well as urban planning and road transport management.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41597-025-05698-y

    View details for PubMedID 40764621

  • Large CO<sub>2</sub> removal potential of woody debris preservation in managed forests (vol 18, pg 675, 2025) NATURE GEOSCIENCE Luo, Y., Wei, N., Lu, X., Zhou, Y., Tao, F., Quan, Q., Liao, C., Jiang, L., Xia, J., Huang, Y., Niu, S., Xu, X., Sun, Y., Zeng, N., Koven, C., Peng, L., Davis, S., Smith, P., You, F., Jiang, Y., Cheng, L., Houlton, B. 2025; 18 (8): 809
  • Large CO<sub>2</sub> removal potential of woody debris preservation in managed forests NATURE GEOSCIENCE Luo, Y., Wei, N., Lu, X., Zhou, Y., Tao, F., Quan, Q., Liao, C., Jiang, L., Xia, J., Huang, Y., Niu, S., Xu, X., Sun, Y., Zeng, N., Koven, C., Peng, L., Davis, S., Smith, P., You, F., Jiang, Y., Cheng, L., Houlton, B. 2025
  • Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems. Nature Zheng, D., Yan, X., Tong, D., Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., Lin, Y., Guo, Y., Li, J., Wang, P., Ping, L., Feng, S., Liu, Y., Cheng, J., Chen, D., He, K., Zhang, Q. 2025

    Abstract

    Climate change may amplify the frequency and severity of supply-demand mismatches in future power systems with high shares of wind and solar energy1,2. Here, we use a dispatch optimization model to assess potential increases in hourly costs associated with such climate-intensified gaps under fixed, high penetrations of wind and solar generation. We further explore various strategies to enhance system resilience in the face of future climate change. We find that extreme periods-defined as hours in the upper decile of hourly costs (i.e., the most-costly 10% of hours)-are likely to become more costly in the future in most countries, mainly due to the increased need for investments in flexible energy capacity. For example, under the SSP126 scenario, 47 countries that together account for approximately 43.5% of global future electricity generation are projected to experience more than a 5% increase in average hourly costs during extreme periods, with the largest reaching up to 23.7%. Promisingly, the risk of rising costs could be substantially mitigated through tailored, country-specific strategies involving the coordinated implementation of multiple measures to address supply-demand imbalances and enhance system flexibility. Our findings provide critical insights for building future climate-resilient power systems while reducing system costs.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-025-09266-7

    View details for PubMedID 40532928

  • Globally interconnected solar-wind system addresses future electricity demands. Nature communications Jiang, H., Yao, L., Qin, J., Bai, Y., Brandt, M., Lian, X., Davis, S. J., Lu, N., Zhao, W., Liu, T., Zhou, C. 2025; 16 (1): 4523

    Abstract

    Accelerating energy transition towards renewables is central to net-zero emissions. However, building a global power system dominated by solar and wind energy presents immense challenges. Here, we demonstrate the potential of a globally interconnected solar-wind system to meet future electricity demands. We estimate that such a system could generate ~3.1 times the projected 2050 global electricity demand. By optimizing solar-wind deployment, storage capacity, and trans-regional transmission, the solar-wind penetration could be achieved using only 29.4% of the highest potential, with a 15.6% reduction in initial investment compared to a strategy without interconnection. Global interconnection improves energy efficiency, mitigates the variability of renewable energy, promotes energy availability, and eases the economic burden of decarbonization. Importantly, this interconnected system shows remarkable resilience to climate extremes, generation outages, transmission disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts. Our findings underscore the potential of global interconnection in enabling high renewable penetration and guiding sustainable energy transitions.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-59879-9

    View details for PubMedID 40374647

    View details for PubMedCentralID 10371865

  • Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Cheng, J., Tong, D., Zhao, H., Xu, R., Qin, Y., Zhang, Q., Bhuwalka, K., Caldeira, K., Davis, S. J. 2025
  • Historical trends in snowmelt used for irrigation ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH: FOOD SYSTEMS Kinnebrew, E., Sloat, L. L., Qin, Y., Davis, S. J., Abatzoglou, J. T., Siebert, S., Mueller, N. D. 2025; 2 (1)
  • Mitigating climate change and ozone pollution will improve Chinese food security ONE EARTH Li, S., Gao, Y., Zhang, J., Hong, C., Zhang, S., Chen, D., Wild, O., Feng, Z., Xu, Y., Guo, X., Kou, W., Yan, F., Ma, M., Yao, X., Gao, H., Davis, S. J. 2025; 8 (2)
  • A path to US Tribal energy sovereignty. Science (New York, N.Y.) Seibel, S., Luarkie, R., Cardenas, D., Mayer, C., Sanchez, R., Dannenberg, M., Panek, B. M., Bond, A., Gordon, Z., Morishige, D., Hadrick, K., Stahnke, G., Fofrich, R., Davis, S., Tallman, R., Bowser, B., Bazilian, M. D. 2025; 387 (6732): 372

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adt7820

    View details for PubMedID 39847633

  • Building materials could store more than 16 billion tonnes of CO2 annually. Science (New York, N.Y.) Van Roijen, E., Miller, S. A., Davis, S. J. 2025; 387 (6730): 176-182

    Abstract

    Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions likely entails not only lowering emissions but also deploying carbon dioxide (CO2) removal technologies. We explored the annual potential to store CO2 in building materials. We found that fully replacing conventional building materials with CO2-storing alternatives in new infrastructure could store as much as 16.6 ± 2.8 billion tonnes of CO2 each year-roughly 50% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2021. The total storage potential is far more sensitive to the scale of materials used than the quantity of carbon stored per unit mass of materials. Moreover, the carbon storage reservoir of building materials will grow in proportion to demand for such materials, which could reduce demand for more costly or environmentally risky geological, terrestrial, or ocean storage.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adq8594

    View details for PubMedID 39787238

  • Synergetic strategies for carbon neutrality and clean air. Environmental science and ecotechnology Davis, S. J. 2024; 22: 100497

    Abstract

    Image 1.

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ese.2024.100497

    View details for PubMedID 39525863

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC11543907

  • Global CO<sub>2</sub> uptake by cement from 1930 to 2019 EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA Guo, R., Wang, J., Bing, L., Tong, D., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Andrew, R. M., Xi, F., Liu, Z. 2021; 13 (4): 1791-1805
  • Economic footprint of California wildfires in 2018 NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Wang, D., Guan, D., Zhu, S., Kinnon, M., Geng, G., Zhang, Q., Zheng, H., Lei, T., Shao, S., Gong, P., Davis, S. J. 2021; 4 (3): 252-260