Paul Segall
The Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Professor of Geophysics
Web page: http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/CDFM/paul/
Bio
My students and I study active earthquake and volcanic process through data collection, inversion, and theoretical modeling. Using methods such as precise Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) we are able to measure deformation in space and time and invert these data for the geometry of faults and magma chambers, and spatiotemporal variations in fault slip-rate and magma chamber dilation. The accumulation of shear strain in tectonic regions provides a direct measure of earthquake potential. Similarly, magma accumulation in the crust prior to eruptions causes measurable inflation. We use these data to develop and test models of active plate boundaries such as the San Andreas, and the Cascade and Japanese subduction zones, the nucleation of earthquakes, slow slip events, induced seismicity, and the physics of magma migration leading to volcanic eruptions. These physics-based models rely on principles and methodologies from solid and fluid dynamics.
Administrative Appointments
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Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Geophysics, Stanford University (2020 - Present)
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Committee on Graduate Studies, Stanford University (2018 - 2020)
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Summer Research Program for Teachers, Stanford University (2018 - 2018)
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Pre-Major Advisor, Stanford University (2013 - 2015)
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School of Earth Sciences Council, Stanford University (2013 - 2015)
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Office of Judicial Affairs – Internal Review Panel, Stanford University (2010 - 2012)
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School of Earth Sciences Space Committee, Stanford University (2010 - 2012)
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Geoscape Bay Area: Teacher Professional Development Course on Volcanoes, Stanford University (2010 - 2010)
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Admit Weekend Lecture, Stanford University (2008 - 2010)
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Instructor, Stanford (Summer) Engineering Academy, Stanford University (2005 - 2018)
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Admit Weekend Lecture, Stanford University (2005 - 2006)
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Associate Chair, Geophysics Department, Stanford University (2003 - 2004)
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Member, Earth Sciences Council, Stanford University (2003 - 2004)
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Alumni Weekend Lecture, Stanford University (2000 - 2001)
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Chair, C-ACIS Committee on Academic Computing and Information Services, Stanford University (2000 - 2001)
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Member, University Needs Task Force on Information Technology, Stanford University (2000 - 2001)
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Visiting Professor, Insitute de Physique du Globe, Paris (2000 - 2000)
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Professor, Stanford University (1998 - Present)
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Member, C-ACIS Committee on Academic Computing and Information Services, Stanford University (1997 - 2000)
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Freshman/Sophmore Advisor, Stanford University (1995 - 2005)
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Chair, Geophysics Department Admissions Committe, Stanford University (1995 - 1998)
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Chair, School of Earth Sciences Computer Committee, Stanford University (1994 - 2007)
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Associate Professor, Stanford University (1993 - 1998)
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Visiting Associate Professor, University of Grenoble (1991 - 1991)
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Associate Professor (Research), Stanford University (1989 - 1993)
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Consulting Professor, Stanford University (1987 - 1989)
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Project Chief Mechanics of Faulting and Fracturing, USGS (1983 - 1993)
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Geologist, USGS (1981 - 1983)
Honors & Awards
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Member, National Academy of Sciences (2016)
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Charles A. Whitten Medal, American Geophysical Union (2014)
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William Smith Lecturer, Geological Society of London (2011)
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Stanford Postdoctoral Mentoring Award (Honorable Mention), Stanford University (2009)
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Citation for Excellence in Refereeing, American Geophysical Union (2002)
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Fellow, Geological Society of America (1997)
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Fellow, American Geophysical Union (1990)
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J.B. Macelwane Medal, American Geophysical Union (1990)
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USGS Special Achievement Award, USGS (1984)
Boards, Advisory Committees, Professional Organizations
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Invited Speaker, Nagoya University (2019 - 2019)
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Invited Speaker, International Conference on Crustal Dynamics (Kyoto) (2019 - 2019)
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Invited Speaker, University of Iceland (2018 - 2018)
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Invited Speaker, UNAVCO Annual Meeting (2018 - 2018)
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Keynote Speaker, Keynote Speaker NSF Workshop on Modeling Earthquake Source Processes (Caltech) (2018 - 2018)
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Editor, PNAS (2017 - Present)
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Thesis advisory committee member, Nanyang Technical University, Singapore (2017 - Present)
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Invited Speaker, Davos workshop on Induced Seismicity (2017 - 2017)
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Invited Speaker,, Univ. Illinois, Northwestern University (2017 - 2017)
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Review Panel Member, US Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards (2017 - 2017)
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Reviewer, National Academies report, Onshore Unconventional Hydrocarbon Development (2017 - 2017)
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Tudor Commemorative Lecture, Indiana University (2017 - 2017)
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Member, NAS Committee on Improving Understanding of Volcanic Eruptions (2016 - 2017)
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International Review Committee, Earth Observatory Singapore (2016 - 2016)
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Invited speaker, University of Leeds, University of Cambridge (2016 - 2016)
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Lecturer, International Center for Theoretical Physics, Advanced School on Physics of Volcanoes, Trieste, Italy (2016 - 2016)
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Solas Lecture, University of Bristol (2016 - 2016)
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Advisory Board, COMET (2015 - Present)
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Expert Adviser, NSF GEO Future Facility Needs (2015 - Present)
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Invited Speaker, NSF Workshop on Seismic and Geodetic Network Needs (2015 - Present)
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Invited Speaker, USGS Menlo Park (2015 - 2015)
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Keynote Speaker, NSF Workshop “Future of the Plate Boundary Observatory” (2014 - 2014)
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Chair, UNAVCO Nominating Committee (2013 - 2014)
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Assessment Panel Member, U.K. National Centre of Earth Observation (2013 - 2013)
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Invited Participant, USGS New Madrid Workshop (2013 - 2013)
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Invited Speaker, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo (2013 - 2013)
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Invited Speaker, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (2013 - 2013)
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Invited Speaker, Oberlin College (2013 - 2013)
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Member, NASA, Solid Earth and Natural Hazards, Science Plan Committee (2013 - 2013)
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NSF Panel: Frontiers of Earth System Dynamics, NSF (2013 - 2013)
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Earth and Ocean Sciences Colloquium,, University of British Columbia (2012 - 2012)
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Keynote speaker, Chapman Conference on Hawaiian Volcanism. (2012 - 2012)
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Chair Reid Medal Committee, Seismological Society of America (2011 - 2011)
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Invited Speaker, Royal Society Workshop, Magma Migration, Storage and Eruption (2011 - 2011)
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Invited Speaker, Invited Speaker - Univ. Colorado (2011 - 2011)
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Invited Speaker, J.R. Rice Symposium Caltech (2011 - 2011)
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Invited Speaker, University of Kyoto, Disaster Prevention Research Institute (2011 - 2011)
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Invited speaker, USGS Workshop on Great Cascadia earthquakes, Eugene Oregon (2011 - 2011)
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Keynote speaker, Seismic and aseismic deformation workshop, Strasbourg France (2011 - 2011)
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Plenary speaker, Chapman Conference, The Galápagos as a Laboratory for the Earth Sciences, Puerto Ayora, Ecuador (2011 - 2011)
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Invited Speaker, Earthscope Institute: Spectrum of Fault Slip Behavior (2010 - 2010)
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Invited Speaker, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (2010 - 2010)
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Discussion Leader, NSF Long Range Science Plan for Geodesy (2009 - 2009)
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Invited Keynote Speaker, Earthscope National Meeting (2009 - 2009)
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Invited Seminar, U.C. Berkeley (2009 - 2009)
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Invited Speaker, Workshop on Numerical Modeling of Crustal Deformation and Earthquake Faulting (2009 - 2009)
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Invited presentation, UC Santa Cruz (2009 - 2009)
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Chair, U.C. Riverside IGPP External Review (2008 - 2008)
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Invited Presentation, Caltech Geological and Planetary Sciences (2008 - 2008)
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Invited Presentation, US Geological Survey (2008 - 2008)
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Invited Presentation, Volcano Deformation Workshop (2008 - 2008)
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NSF Long Range Planning for Seismology Workshop, NSF (2008 - 2008)
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Review Panel, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (2008 - 2008)
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Board of Directors, Southern California Earthquake Center (2007 - Present)
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Invited Speaker, Euro-Conference - Rock Physics and Geomechanic (2007 - 2007)
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Invited presentation, IGPP U. C. San Diego (2007 - 2007)
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Invited presentation, Harvard University (2007 - 2007)
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Invited presentation, SCEC/ERI Workshop (2006 - 2006)
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USGS working group on National Volcano Early Warning System extramural program, USGS (2006 - 2006)
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Donath Medal Committee, Geological Society of America (2005 - 2008)
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2005 Invited participant, Kavli Institute of Theoretical Physics "Fracture and friction from atomic to tectonic scales" (2005 - 2005)
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Invited Participant, Dahlem Workshop "Dynamics of Fault Zones", Berlin (2005 - 2005)
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Invited presentation, Purdue University (2005 - 2005)
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Chair, Plate Boundary Observatory (Earthscope) Standing Committee (2003 - 2006)
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President, Tectonophysics Section, AGU (2003 - 2004)
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Coconvener, NSF/USGS sponsored workshop "volcanic processes in Long Valley Caldera - Mono Craters volcanic field", NSF/USGS (2003 - 2003)
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Invited Presentation, U.C. Riverside (2003 - 2003)
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Member, CEPEC, California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (2002 - 2009)
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Department of Interior's Scientific Earthquake Advisory Committee, Department of Interior (2002 - 2006)
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Invited Presentation, Academica Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan (2002 - 2002)
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Invited Seminar, University of Southern California (2002 - 2002)
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Invited Seminar, I.G.P.P., Scripps Institute of Oceanography (2002 - 2002)
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Board of Directors, UNAVCO, Inc. (2001 - 2003)
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Invited Presentation, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (2001 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, Whole Earth Seminar, U.C. Santa Cruz (2001 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, Invited Presentation: E.G.S. Nice, France (2001 - 2001)
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Invited presentation, University of Utah, Rate Debate Workshop (2001 - 2001)
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Invited presentation, Caltech (2001 - 2001)
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Board of Directors, UNAVCO (NSF GPS Facility) (2000 - 2003)
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Member, American Geophysical Union Meetings Committee (2000 - 2002)
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President Elect, American Geophysical Union, Tectonophysics Section (2000 - 2002)
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Invited Presentation, Stress Interactions Workshop, Erice, Italy (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, D.O.E. Workshop, Gaithersburg Md. (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, Ecole Normale Superieur, Paris, France (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Annual Meeting (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest, France (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, Observatoire du Midi Pyrenees, Tolouse, France (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, 2nd Plate Boundary Observatory Workshop (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation, U.S.- Japan Conference on Earthquake Studies (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation:, Institute de Physique du Globe, Paris, France (2000 - 2001)
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Invited Presentation: U.S.G.S. Workshop on New Madrid Earthquakes, USGS (2000 - 2001)
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Member, UNAVCO (University Navstar Consortium) Steering Committee (2000 - 2001)
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Member, CNRS review committee of Laboratoire de Tectonique-Mechanique de la Lithosphere, Institute de Physique du Globe, Paris (2000 - 2000)
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Member, Plate Boundary Observatory Steering Committee (1999 - 2002)
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Member, NAS Committee to review the Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (1999 - 2000)
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Chair, UC Santa Cruz Tectonics Advisory Committee (1999 - 1999)
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Invited presentations, Invited presentations: UCLA (1999 - 1999)
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Invited presentations, GPS 99, Tsukuba, Japan (1999 - 1999)
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Invited presentations, Stanford University Statistics Department (1999 - 1999)
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Invited presentations, Plate Boundary Observatory Workshop, Snowbird, Utah (1999 - 1999)
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Invited presentations, UNAVCO Annual Meeting (1999 - 1999)
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Invited presentations, UNAVCO workshop on Volcano Deformation (1999 - 1999)
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Invited presentations, AGU (Spring) Meeting (1999 - 1999)
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Member, Southern California Integrated GPS Network Advisory Council (1998 - 2002)
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Invited Symposium Presentation: Space-Based Geoscience Observations: Looking Down at the Future, University of Texas, Austin (1998 - 1998)
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Invited lectures, IRIS Annual Meeting (1998 - 1998)
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Invited lectures: Special Session Organizer and Presentation, SSA Annual Meeting (1998 - 1998)
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NSF Review Panel, Instruments and Facilities, NSF (1997 - 2000)
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Member, James B. Macelwane Medal Committee, American Geophysical Union (1996 - 1998)
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Member, Science Advisory Team for Long Valley caldera, USGS (1994 - 2010)
Professional Education
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Ph.D, Stanford University, Geology (1981)
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M.S., Case Western Reserve University, Earth Sciences (1976)
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B.S., Case Western Reserve University, Earth Sciences
Current Research and Scholarly Interests
Research
I study active earthquake and volcanic process through data collection, inversion, and theoretical modeling. Using methods such as precise Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) we are able to measure deformation in space and time and invert these data for the geometry of faults and magma chambers, and spatiotemporal variations in fault slip-rate and magma chamber dilation. The accumulation of shear strain in tectonic regions provides a direct measure of earthquake potential. Similarly, magma accumulation in the crust prior to eruptions causes measurable inflation. We use these data to develop and test models of active plate boundaries such as the San Andreas, and the Cascade and Japanese subduction zones, the nucleation of earthquakes, slow slip events, induced seismicity, and the physics of magma migration leading to volcanic eruptions. These physics-based models rely on principles and methodologies from solid and fluid dynamics.
Teaching
I teach introductory undergraduate classes in natural hazards and the prediction of volcanic eruptions, as well as graduate level courses on modeling earthquake and volcano deformation and geophysical inverse theory.
Professional Activities
James B. Macelwane Medal, American Geophysical Union (1990); fellow, American Geophysical Union (1990); fellow, Geological Society of America (1997); president, Tectonophysics Section, AGU (2002-04); U.S.G.S. Science of Earthquakes Advisory Committee (2002-06); California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Committee (2003-07); chair, Plate Boundary Observatory Steering Committee (2003-06); N.S.F. Panel, Instruments and Facilities Program (1997-2000); associate editor, Journal of Geophysical Research (1984-87). William Smith Lecturer, Geological Society of London (2011). Charles A. Whitten Medal, American Geophysical Union (2014), National Academy of Sciences (2016)
2024-25 Courses
- Earthquakes and Volcanoes
EARTHSYS 113, GEOPHYS 90 (Aut) - Geophysical Inverse Problems
GEOPHYS 281 (Win) - Physical Volcanology
GEOPHYS 385R (Aut, Win, Spr) -
Independent Studies (3)
- Honors Program
GEOPHYS 198 (Aut, Sum) - Research in Geophysics
GEOPHYS 400 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Undergraduate Research in Geophysics
GEOPHYS 196 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
- Honors Program
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Prior Year Courses
2023-24 Courses
- Crustal Deformation
GEOPHYS 288 (Spr) - Geophysics Department Seminar
GEOPHYS 300 (Spr) - How to Predict a Super Eruption
GEOPHYS 20N (Win) - Physical Volcanology
GEOPHYS 385R (Win, Spr)
2022-23 Courses
- Earthquakes and Volcanoes
EARTHSYS 113, GEOPHYS 90 (Spr) - Frontiers of Geophysical Research at Stanford
GEOPHYS 101, GEOPHYS 201 (Aut) - Geophysical Inverse Problems
GEOPHYS 281 (Win) - Physical Volcanology
GEOPHYS 385R (Aut, Win, Spr)
2021-22 Courses
- Crustal Deformation
GEOPHYS 288A (Aut) - Crustal Deformation
GEOPHYS 288B (Win) - Earthquake Seismology, Deformation, and Stress
GEOPHYS 385L (Aut, Sum) - Physical Volcanology
GEOPHYS 385R (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
- Crustal Deformation
Stanford Advisees
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Doctoral Dissertation Reader (AC)
Thom Chaffee, Enrique del Castillo -
Postdoctoral Faculty Sponsor
Josh Crozier, Cheng Mei, Xinyi Qian -
Doctoral Dissertation Advisor (AC)
Laura Blackstone
All Publications
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Deep Learning Forecasts Caldera Collapse Events at Kilauea Volcano
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2024; 129 (8)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2024JB029471
View details for Web of Science ID 001297094200001
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Modeling dike trajectories in a biaxial stress field with coupled magma flow, fracture, and elasticity
BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY
2024; 86 (5)
View details for DOI 10.1007/s00445-024-01734-8
View details for Web of Science ID 001218020300001
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Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Caldera Collapse Earthquakes: Effects of Wave Radiation, Magma Viscosity, and Evidence of Complex Nucleation at Kilauea 2018
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2024; 129 (4)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2023JB028280
View details for Web of Science ID 001196097500001
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Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes
NATURE GEOSCIENCE
2024
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41561-023-01372-3
View details for Web of Science ID 001156892400001
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Ring fault creep drives volcano-tectonic seismicity during caldera collapse of Ki over bar lauea in 2018
EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS
2023; 618
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118288
View details for Web of Science ID 001045469700001
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Incorporating Full Elastodynamic Effects and Dipping Fault Geometries in Community Code Verification Exercises for Simulations of Earthquake Sequences and Aseismic Slip (SEAS)
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
2023; 113 (2): 499-523
View details for DOI 10.1785/0120220066
View details for Web of Science ID 000968430000001
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Disposal From In Situ Bitumen Recovery Induced the M-L 5.6 Peace River Earthquake
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2023; 50 (6)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2023GL102940
View details for Web of Science ID 000951503100001
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Could Kilauea's 2020 Post Caldera-Forming Eruption Have Been Anticipated?
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2022; 49 (15)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2022GL099270
View details for Web of Science ID 000838108900001
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The Surface Deformation Signature of a Transcrustal, Crystal Mush-Dominant Magma System
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2022; 127 (5)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2022JB024178
View details for Web of Science ID 000795749500001
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Physics-Based Model Reconciles Caldera Collapse Induced Static and Dynamic Ground Motion: Application to Kilauea 2018
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2022; 49 (8)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2021GL097440
View details for Web of Science ID 000781874000001
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Constraints on Absolute Magma Chamber Volume From Geodetic Measurements of Trapdoor Faulting at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galapagos
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2022; 49 (5)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2021GL095683
View details for Web of Science ID 000773409300050
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How Steady is Interseismic Crustal Deformation in Northeast Japan? Evidence From an Integrated Analysis of Centennial Geodetic Data
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2022; 127 (2)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2021JB023100
View details for Web of Science ID 000765643700001
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Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2021; 118 (30)
Abstract
Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance [Formula: see text] strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by [Formula: see text] 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains [Formula: see text] to be [Formula: see text] mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick-slip derived here are commonly met in nature.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2101469118
View details for PubMedID 34301896
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Post-2018 Caldera Collapse Re-Inflation Uniquely Constrains Kilauea's Magmatic System
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2021; 126 (6)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2021JB021803
View details for Web of Science ID 000665206200049
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Precursory Slow Slip and Foreshocks on Rough Faults
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2021; 126 (4)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2020JB020430
View details for Web of Science ID 000644658600032
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Joint Inversions of Ground Deformation, Extrusion Flux, and Gas Emissions Using Physics-Based Models for the Mount St. Helens 2004-2008 Eruption
GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS
2020; 21 (12)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2020GC009343
View details for Web of Science ID 000603662700019
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Caldera Collapse Geometry Revealed by Near-Field GPS Displacements at Klauea Volcano in 2018
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2020; 47 (15)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2020GL088867
View details for Web of Science ID 000560376100072
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Role of Fluid Injection on Earthquake Size in Dynamic Rupture Simulations on Rough Faults
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2020; 47 (13)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2020GL088377
View details for Web of Science ID 000551465400057
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The Community Code Verification Exercise for Simulating Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS)
SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2020; 91 (2): 874–90
View details for DOI 10.1785/0220190248
View details for Web of Science ID 000518383600030
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Logarithmic Growth of Dikes Froma Depressurizing Magma Chamber
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2020; 47 (4)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2019GL086230
View details for Web of Science ID 000529120100064
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Physically Consistent Modeling of Dike-Induced Deformation and Seismicity: Application to the 2014 Bar partial derivative arbunga Dike, Iceland
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2020; 125 (2)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2019JB018141
View details for Web of Science ID 000530895200045
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On the Integrated Surface Uplift for Dip-Slip Faults
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
2019; 109 (6): 2738–40
View details for DOI 10.1785/0120190220
View details for Web of Science ID 000499983200041
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Numerical Analysis of Time-Dependent Conduit Magma Flow in Dome-Forming Eruptions With Application to Mount St. Helens 2004-2008
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2019
View details for DOI 10.1029/2019JB017585
View details for Web of Science ID 000499496000001
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Mechanics of Inflationary Deformation During Caldera Collapse: Evidence From the 2018 Kilauea Eruption
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2019
View details for DOI 10.1029/2019GL084689
View details for Web of Science ID 000493707700001
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Magma chambers: what we can, and cannot, learn from volcano geodesy.
Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
2019; 377 (2139): 20180158
Abstract
Geodetic observations on volcanoes can reveal important aspects of crustal magma chambers. The rate of decay of deformation with distance reflects the centroid depth of the chamber. The amplitude of the deformation is proportional to the product of the pressure change and volume of the reservoir. The ratio of horizontal to vertical displacement is sensitive to chamber shape: sills are efficient at generating vertical displacement, while stocks produce more horizontal deformation. Geodesy alone cannot constrain important parameters such as chamber volume or pressure; furthermore, kinematic models have no predictive power. Elastic response combined with influx proportional to pressure gradient predicts an exponentially decaying flux, leading to saw-tooth inflation cycles observed at some volcanoes. Yet many magmatic systems exhibit more complex temporal behaviour. Wall rock adjacent to magma reservoirs cannot behave fully elastically. Modern conceptual models of magma chambers also include cumulate and/or mush zones, with potentially multi-level melt lenses. A viscoelastic shell surrounding a spherical magma chamber significantly modifies the predicted time-dependent response; post-eruptive inflation can occur without recharge if the magma is sufficiently incompressible relative to the surrounding crust (Segall P. 2016 J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 121, 8501-8522). Numerical calculations confirm this behaviour for both oblate and prolate ellipsoidal chambers surrounded by viscoelastic aureoles. Interestingly, the response to a nearly instantaneous pressure drop during an explosive eruption can be non-monotonic as the rock around the chamber relaxes at different rates. Pressure-dependent recharge of a non-Newtonian magma in an elastic crust leads to an initially high rate of inflation which slows over time; behaviour that has been observed in some magmatic systems. I close by discussing future challenges in volcano geodesy. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Magma reservoir architecture and dynamics'.
View details for DOI 10.1098/rsta.2018.0158
View details for PubMedID 30966938
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC6335483
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Crack Models of Repeating Earthquakes Predict Observed Moment‐Recurrence Scaling
Journal of Geophysical Research
2019
View details for DOI 10.1029/2018JB016056
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Magma reservoir failure and the onset of caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
2019; 366 (6470)
Abstract
Caldera-forming eruptions are among Earth's most hazardous natural phenomena, yet the architecture of subcaldera magma reservoirs and the conditions that trigger collapse are poorly understood. Observations from the formation of a 0.8-cubic kilometer basaltic caldera at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 included the draining of an active lava lake, which provided a window into pressure decrease in the reservoir. We show that failure began after <4% of magma was withdrawn from a shallow reservoir beneath the volcano's summit, reducing its internal pressure by ~17 megapascals. Several cubic kilometers of magma were stored in the reservoir, and only a fraction was withdrawn before the end of the eruption. Thus, caldera formation may begin after withdrawal of only small amounts of magma and may end before source reservoirs are completely evacuated.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aaz1822
View details for PubMedID 31806783
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Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application to Southern California
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2018; 123 (12): 11048–61
View details for DOI 10.1029/2018JB016097
View details for Web of Science ID 000455996900040
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Magnitudes of Induced Earthquakes in Low-Stress Environments
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
2018; 108 (3A): 1087–1106
View details for DOI 10.1785/0120170295
View details for Web of Science ID 000434167100005
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Constitutive Law for Earthquake Production Based on Rate-and-State Friction: Dieterich 1994 Revisited
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2018; 123 (5): 4141–56
View details for DOI 10.1029/2018JB015656
View details for Web of Science ID 000435944700047
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Constraining the Magmatic System at Mount St. Helens (2004-2008) Using Bayesian Inversion With Physics-Based Models Including Gas Escape and Crystallization
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2017; 122 (10): 7789–7812
View details for DOI 10.1002/2017JB014343
View details for Web of Science ID 000418577900018
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Deformation rates in northern Cascadia consistent with slow updip propagation of deep interseismic creep
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
2017; 211 (1): 427–49
View details for DOI 10.1093/gji/ggx317
View details for Web of Science ID 000412270400028
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A Physical Model for Interseismic Erosion of Locked Fault Asperities
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2017; 122 (10): 8326–46
View details for DOI 10.1002/2017JB014533
View details for Web of Science ID 000418577900047
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Bounding the moment deficit rate on crustal faults using geodetic data: Methods
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2017; 122 (8): 6811–35
View details for DOI 10.1002/2017JB014300
View details for Web of Science ID 000411340500050
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Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
2017; 208 (1): 281-288
View details for DOI 10.1093/gji/ggw391
View details for Web of Science ID 000396814800022
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Repressurization following eruption from amagma chamber with a viscoelastic aureole
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2016; 121 (12): 8501-8522
View details for DOI 10.1002/2016JB013597
View details for Web of Science ID 000393181500008
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Coupling on the northern Cascadia subduction zone from geodetic measurements and physics-based models
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2016; 121 (11): 8297-8314
View details for DOI 10.1002/2016JB013267
View details for Web of Science ID 000391133200032
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Seismicity on Basement Faults Induced by Simultaneous Fluid Injection-Extraction
PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
2016; 173 (8): 2621-2636
View details for DOI 10.1007/s00024-016-1319-7
View details for Web of Science ID 000381406600003
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Injection-induced seismicity on basement faults including poroelastic stressing
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2016; 121 (4): 2708-2726
View details for DOI 10.1002/2015JB012561
View details for Web of Science ID 000381626700026
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A Network Inversion Filter combining GNSS and InSAR for tectonic slip modeling
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2016; 121 (3): 2069-2086
View details for DOI 10.1002/2015JB012638
View details for Web of Science ID 000374695200045
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Small interseismic asperities and widespread aseismic creep on the northern Japan subduction interface
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2016; 43 (1): 135-143
View details for DOI 10.1002/2015GL066707
View details for Web of Science ID 000369014100017
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Long-term acceleration of aseismic slip preceding the M-w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake: Constraints from repeating earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2015; 42 (22): 9717-9725
View details for DOI 10.1002/2015GL066069
View details for Web of Science ID 000368343200016
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Nucleation and dynamic rupture on weakly stressed faults sustained by thermal pressurization
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2015; 120 (11): 7606-7640
View details for DOI 10.1002/2015JB012322
View details for Web of Science ID 000368437800020
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Injection-induced seismicity: Poroelastic and earthquake nucleation effects
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2015; 120 (7): 5082-5103
View details for DOI 10.1002/2015JB012060
View details for Web of Science ID 000359746700025
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Network-based estimation of time-dependent noise in GPS position time series
JOURNAL OF GEODESY
2015; 89 (6): 591-606
View details for DOI 10.1007/s00190-015-0801-9
View details for Web of Science ID 000354197600006
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Network-based estimation of time-dependent noise in GPS position time series
Journal of Geodesy
2015; : 16
View details for DOI 10.1007/s00190-015-0801-9
- Injection Induced Seismicity: Poroelastic and Earthquake Nucleation Effects, Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth, in review 2015
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The 2010 slow slip event and secular motion at Kilauea, Hawaii, inferred from TerraSAR-X InSAR data
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2014; 119 (8): 6667-6683
View details for DOI 10.1002/2014JB011156
View details for Web of Science ID 000342512900030
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A decadal-scale deformation transient prior to the 2011 M-w 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2014; 41 (13): 4486-4494
View details for DOI 10.1002/2014GL060139
View details for Web of Science ID 000340295300011
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VOLCANOLOGY Look up for magma insights
NATURE GEOSCIENCE
2014; 7 (3): 168-169
View details for DOI 10.1038/ngeo2064
View details for Web of Science ID 000332088800006
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Time-dependent modeling of slow slip events and associated seismicity and tremor at the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2014; 119 (1): 734-753
View details for DOI 10.1002/2013JB010609
View details for Web of Science ID 000333033400043
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Time-dependent dike propagation from joint inversion of seismicity and deformation data
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2013; 118 (11): 5785-5804
View details for DOI 10.1002/2013JB010251
View details for Web of Science ID 000328348700005
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Bayesian inversion of data from effusive volcanic eruptions using physics-based models: Application to Mount St. Helens 2004-2008
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2013; 118 (5): 2017-2037
View details for DOI 10.1002/jgrb.50169
View details for Web of Science ID 000327299800024
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Bayesian inversion of data from effusive volcanic eruptions using physics-based models: Application to Mount St. Helens, 2004-2008
Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth
2013
View details for DOI 10.1002/jgrb.50169
- Volcano Deformation and Eruption Forecasting Remote Sensing of Volcanoes and Volcanic Processes Geol. Soc. London. 2013: 29p
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Time-Dependent Dike Propagation From Joint Inversion of Seismicity and Deformation Data
Journal of Geophysical Research
2013
View details for DOI 10.1002/2013JB010251
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Challenging the rate-state asperity model: Afterslip following the 2011 M9 Tohoku-oki, Japan, earthquake
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2012; 39
View details for DOI 10.1029/2012GL052901
View details for Web of Science ID 000310078500001
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Slow-slip evolves into megathrust earthquakes in 2D numerical simulations
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2012; 39
View details for DOI 10.1029/2012GL052811
View details for Web of Science ID 000309415100002
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Understanding Earthquakes
SCIENCE
2012; 336 (6082): 676-677
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1220946
View details for Web of Science ID 000303872300034
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The Role of Thermal Pressurization and Dilatancy in Controlling the Rate of Fault Slip
JOURNAL OF APPLIED MECHANICS-TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASME
2012; 79 (3)
View details for DOI 10.1115/1.4005896
View details for Web of Science ID 000303261700014
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Space-time correlation of slip and tremor during the 2009 Cascadia slow slip event
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2011; 38
View details for DOI 10.1029/2011GL048714
View details for Web of Science ID 000295281400001
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Physics-based models of ground deformation and extrusion rate at effusively erupting volcanoes
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2011; 116
View details for DOI 10.1029/2010JB007939
View details for Web of Science ID 000292835800001
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Shear heating-induced thermal pressurization during earthquake nucleation
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2011; 116
View details for DOI 10.1029/2010JB008035
View details for Web of Science ID 000292145300001
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Spatiotemporal evolution of dike opening and decollement slip at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2011; 116
View details for DOI 10.1029/2010JB007762
View details for Web of Science ID 000288869600002
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Seismic and aseismic fault slip before and during the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE
2011; 63 (7): 637-642
View details for DOI 10.5047/eps.2011.07.001
View details for Web of Science ID 000297516400024
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Ground deformation at effusively erupting volcanoes from physics-based models, I: Development and Analysis
Journal of Geophysical Research
2011; 116
View details for DOI 10.1029/2010JB007939
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Network strain filter: A new tool for monitoring and detecting transient deformation signals in GPS arrays
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2010; 115
View details for DOI 10.1029/2010JB007442
View details for Web of Science ID 000285639600002
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Dilatant strengthening as a mechanism for slow slip events
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2010; 115
View details for DOI 10.1029/2010JB007449
View details for Web of Science ID 000285020600004
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Cyclic ground tilt associated with the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2010; 115
View details for DOI 10.1029/2009JB007102
View details for Web of Science ID 000283949500002
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Geodetic evidence for en echelon dike emplacement and concurrent slow slip during the June 2007 intrusion and eruption at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2010; 115
View details for DOI 10.1029/2009JB006658
View details for Web of Science ID 000280048700003
- Earthquake and Volcano Deformation, 424, pp Princeton University Press. 2010
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Spatio-temporal distribution dike opening and fault slip during the June 17-19, 2007 intrusion at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii
Jour. Geophys. Res.
2010; 115 (B07405)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2009JB006658
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Kilauea slow slip events: Identification, source inversions, and relation to seismicity
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2009; 114
View details for DOI 10.1029/2008JB006074
View details for Web of Science ID 000267003200002
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A unified source model for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
2008; 98 (2): 823-831
View details for DOI 10.1785/0120060402
View details for Web of Science ID 000254528000027
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Magma compressibility and the missing source for some dike intrusions
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2008; 35 (4)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2007GL032521
View details for Web of Science ID 000253715300003
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Persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar for crustal deformation analysis, with application to Volcan Alcedo, Galapagos
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2007; 112 (B7)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2006JB004763
View details for Web of Science ID 000248033600006
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Interferogram formation in the presence of complex and large deformation
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2007; 34 (12)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2007GL029745
View details for Web of Science ID 000247533300003
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Stress control of deep rift intrusion at Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii
SCIENCE
2007; 316 (5827): 1026-1030
Abstract
Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii, deforms by a combination of shallow dike intrusions in the rift zones and earthquakes along the base of the volcano, but it is not known how the spreading is accommodated in the lower part of the volcanic edifice. We present evidence from interferometric synthetic aperture radar data for secular inflation of a dike-like magma body at intermediate depth in the southwest rift zone during 2002 to 2005. Magma accumulation occurred in a section of the rift zone that was unclamped by previous dikes and earthquakes, suggesting that stress transfer plays an important role in controlling subsurface magma accumulation.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1140035
View details for Web of Science ID 000246554000046
View details for PubMedID 17510364
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Temporal and spatial variations of post-seismic deformation following the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
2007; 169 (2): 367-379
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03310.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000245675000001
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Transient deformation following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion at Kilauea volcano, Hawai'i
BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY
2007; 69 (4): 353-363
View details for DOI 10.1007/s00445-006-0080-7
View details for Web of Science ID 000243904200002
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Does shear heating of pore fluid contribute to earthquake nucleation?
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2006; 111 (B9)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2005JB004129
View details for Web of Science ID 000240949000002
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Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kilauea volcano, Hawaii
NATURE
2006; 442 (7098): 71-74
Abstract
Slow-slip events, or 'silent earthquakes', have recently been discovered in a number of subduction zones including the Nankai trough in Japan, Cascadia, and Guerrero in Mexico, but the depths of these events have been difficult to determine from surface deformation measurements. Although it is assumed that these silent earthquakes are located along the plate megathrust, this has not been proved. Slow slip in some subduction zones is associated with non-volcanic tremor, but tremor is difficult to locate and may be distributed over a broad depth range. Except for some events on the San Andreas fault, slow-slip events have not yet been associated with high-frequency earthquakes, which are easily located. Here we report on swarms of high-frequency earthquakes that accompany otherwise silent slips on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii. For the most energetic event, in January 2005, the slow slip began before the increase in seismicity. The temporal evolution of earthquakes is well explained by increased stressing caused by slow slip, implying that the earthquakes are triggered. The earthquakes, located at depths of 7-8 km, constrain the slow slip to be at comparable depths, because they must fall in zones of positive Coulomb stress change. Triggered earthquakes accompanying slow-slip events elsewhere might go undetected if background seismicity rates are low. Detection of such events would help constrain the depth of slow slip, and could lead to a method for quantifying the increased hazard during slow-slip events, because triggered events have the potential to grow into destructive earthquakes.
View details for DOI 10.1038/nature04938
View details for Web of Science ID 000238724500038
View details for PubMedID 16823451
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Spatial and temporal evolution of stress and slip rate during the 2000 Tokai slow earthquake
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2006; 111 (B3)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2004JB003426
View details for Web of Science ID 000236348800003
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Constraints on magma chamber geometry at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galapagos Islands, based on InSAR observations
JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
2006; 150 (1-3): 232-243
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.07.009
View details for Web of Science ID 000235593400016
- Kinematic and mechanical models of deformation in convergent plate boundary zones (In Revision following 2006 Review) Journal of Geophysical Research 2006
- Global Positioning System Measurements on the Island of Hawaii: 1997 through 2004 U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report U.S. Geological Survey. 2006
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A viscoelastic earthquake cycle model for Taiwan
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2005; 110 (B10)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2004JB003516
View details for Web of Science ID 000233109100001
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Spatiotemporal evolution of a transient slip event on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2005; 110 (B9)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2005JB003651
View details for Web of Science ID 000232111800003
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On merging high- and low-resolution DEMs from TOPSAR and SRTM using a prediction-error filter
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING
2005; 43 (7): 1682-1690
View details for Web of Science ID 000230149900023
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A new method for measuring deformation on volcanoes and other natural terrains using InSAR persistent scatterers
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2004; 31 (23)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2004GL021737
View details for Web of Science ID 000225878900012
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Viscoelastic earthquake cycle models with deep stress-driven creep along the San Andreas fault system
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2004; 109 (B10)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2004JB003096
View details for Web of Science ID 000227038500003
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The interpretation of gravity changes and crustal deformation in active volcanic areas
International Complutense Seminar on Geodetic and Geophysical Effects Associated with Seismic and Volcanic Hazards
SPRINGER BASEL AG. 2004: 1453–67
View details for DOI 10.1007/s00024-004-2514-5
View details for Web of Science ID 000221786000010
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Space time distribution of afterslip following the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake: Implications for variations in fault zone frictional properties
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2004; 31 (6)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2003GL019410
View details for Web of Science ID 000220621500005
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Imaging the ramp-decollement geometry of the Chelungpu fault using coseismic GPS displacements from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake
TECTONOPHYSICS
2004; 378 (1-2): 123-139
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.tecto.2003.10.020
View details for Web of Science ID 000188290700007
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Understanding a large silicic volcanic system: an interdisciplinary workshop on volcanic processes in Long Valley Caldera - Mono Craters volcanic field, Workshop report
Eos Transactions of the American Geophysical Union
2004; 85 (23): 233
View details for DOI 10.1029/2004EO230005
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Imaging of aseismic fault slip transients recorded by dense geodetic networks
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
2003; 155 (3): 778-788
View details for Web of Science ID 000186798900003
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The mechanics of unrest at Long Valley caldera, California: 1. Modeling the geometry of the source using GPS, leveling and two-color EDM data
JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
2003; 127 (3-4): 195-217
View details for DOI 10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00170-7
View details for Web of Science ID 000185821800003
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The mechanics of unrest at Long Valley caldera, California. 2. Constraining the nature of the source using geodetic and micro-gravity data
JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
2003; 127 (3-4): 219-245
View details for DOI 10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00171-9
View details for Web of Science ID 000185821800004
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When is the strain in the meter the same as the strain in the rock?
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2003; 30 (19)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2003GL017995
View details for Web of Science ID 000185925600002
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Post-earthquake ground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients
NATURE
2003; 424 (6945): 179-183
Abstract
Large earthquakes alter the stress in the surrounding crust, leading to triggered earthquakes and aftershocks. A number of time-dependent processes, including afterslip, pore-fluid flow and viscous relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle, further modify the stress and pore pressure near the fault, and hence the tendency for triggered earthquakes. It has proved difficult, however, to distinguish between these processes on the basis of direct field observations, despite considerable effort. Here we present a unique combination of measurements consisting of satellite radar interferograms and water-level changes in geothermal wells following two magnitude-6.5 earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone. The deformation recorded in the interferograms cannot be explained by either afterslip or visco-elastic relaxation, but is consistent with rebound of a porous elastic material in the first 1-2 months following the earthquakes. This interpretation is confirmed by direct measurements which show rapid (1-2-month) recovery of the earthquake-induced water-level changes. In contrast, the duration of the aftershock sequence is projected to be approximately 3.5 years, suggesting that pore-fluid flow does not control aftershock duration. But because the surface strains are dominated by pore-pressure changes in the shallow crust, we cannot rule out a longer pore-pressure transient at the depth of the aftershocks. The aftershock duration is consistent with models of seismicity rate variations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws.
View details for DOI 10.1038/nature01776
View details for Web of Science ID 000184032700038
View details for PubMedID 12853953
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A transient subduction zone slip episode in southwest Japan observed by the nationwide GPS array
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2003; 108 (B2)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2001JB000456
View details for Web of Science ID 000181939700001
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Lower crustal structure in northern California: Implications from strain rate variations following the 1906 San Francisco earthquake
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2003; 108 (B1)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2001JB000189
View details for Web of Science ID 000181558400001
- Imaging of aseismic slip transients recorded by dense geodetic networks Geophysical Journal International 2003; 155
- Injection induced stresses in geothermal fields Journal of Geophysical Research 2003
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Reconciling seismic and geodetic models of the 1989 Kilauea south flank earthquake
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2002; 29 (22)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2002GL016156
View details for Web of Science ID 000180617000019
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Testing time-predictable earthquake recurrence by direct measurement of strain accumulation and release
NATURE
2002; 419 (6904): 287-291
Abstract
Probabilistic estimates of earthquake hazard use various models for the temporal distribution of earthquakes, including the 'time-predictable' recurrence model formulated by Shimazaki and Nakata (which incorporates the concept of elastic rebound described as early as 1910 by H. F. Reid). This model states that an earthquake occurs when the fault recovers the stress relieved in the most recent earthquake. Unlike time-independent models (for example, Poisson probability), the time-predictable model is thought to encompass some of the physics behind the earthquake cycle, in that earthquake probability increases with time. The time-predictable model is therefore often preferred when adequate data are available, and it is incorporated in hazard predictions for many earthquake-prone regions, including northern California, southern California, New Zealand and Japan. Here we show that the model fails in what should be an ideal locale for its application -- Parkfield, California. We estimate rigorous bounds on the predicted recurrence time of the magnitude approximately 6 1966 Parkfield earthquake through inversion of geodetic measurements and we show that, according to the time-predictable model, another earthquake should have occurred by 1987. The model's poor performance in a relatively simple tectonic setting does not bode well for its successful application to the many areas of the world characterized by complex fault interactions.
View details for Web of Science ID 000178056300042
View details for PubMedID 12239564
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Rapid afterslip following the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2002; 29 (16)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2002GL014967
View details for Web of Science ID 000179630300001
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The 12 September 1999 Upper East Rift Zone dike intrusion at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2002; 107 (B7)
View details for DOI 10.1029/2001JB000602
View details for Web of Science ID 000178991900001
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Fault slip distribution of the 1999 M-w 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake, estimated from satellite radar and GPS measurements
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
2002; 92 (4): 1377-1389
View details for Web of Science ID 000177016500018
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Sudden aseismic fault slip on the south flank of Kilauea volcano
NATURE
2002; 415 (6875): 1014-1018
Abstract
One of the greatest hazards associated with oceanic volcanoes is not volcanic in nature, but lies with the potential for catastrophic flank failure. Such flank failure can result in devastating tsunamis and threaten not only the immediate vicinity, but coastal cities along the entire rim of an ocean basin. Kilauea volcano on the island of Hawaii, USA, is a potential source of such flank failures and has therefore been monitored by a network of continuously recording geodetic instruments, including global positioning system (GPS) receivers, tilt meters and strain meters. Here we report that, in early November 2000, this network recorded transient southeastward displacements, which we interpret as an episode of aseismic fault slip. The duration of the event was about 36 hours, it had an equivalent moment magnitude of 5.7 and a maximum slip velocity of about 6[?]cm per day. Inversion of the GPS data reveals a shallow-dipping thrust fault at a depth of 4.5[?]km that we interpret as the down-dip extension of the Hilina Pali--Holei Pali normal fault system. This demonstrates that continuously recording geodetic networks can detect accelerating slip, potentially leading to warnings of volcanic flank collapse.
View details for Web of Science ID 000174075000042
View details for PubMedID 11875566
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Time-dependent distributed afterslip on and deep below the Izmit earthquake rupture
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
2002; 92 (1): 126-137
View details for Web of Science ID 000174930000010
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Integrating geologic and geodetic estimates of slip rate on the San Andreas fault system
INTERNATIONAL GEOLOGY REVIEW
2002; 44 (1): 62-82
View details for Web of Science ID 000176712000003
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Modeling broadscale deformation in northern California and Nevada from plate motions and elastic strain accumulation
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2001; 28 (22): 4315-4318
View details for Web of Science ID 000172032400041
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Constraints on dike propagation from continuous GPS measurements
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2001; 106 (B9): 19301-19317
View details for Web of Science ID 000170973600008
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Volcano monitoring using the Global Positioning System: Filtering strategies
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2001; 106 (B9): 19453-19464
View details for Web of Science ID 000170973600017
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Estimating source parameters from deformation data, with an application to the March 1997 earthquake swarm off the Izu Peninsula, Japan
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2001; 106 (B6): 11217-11237
View details for Web of Science ID 000169160200019
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Fault geometry and slip distribution of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake imaged from inversion of GPS data
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2001; 28 (11): 2285-2288
View details for Web of Science ID 000168831000037
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Inversion of GPS data for spatially variable slip-rate on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2001; 28 (2): 359-362
View details for Web of Science ID 000166415400042
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Widespread uplift and 'trapdoor' faulting on Galapagos volcanoes observed with radar interferometry
NATURE
2000; 407 (6807): 993-996
Abstract
Volcanic uplift, caused by the accumulation of magma in subsurface reservoirs, is a common precursor to eruptions. But, for some volcanoes, uplift of metres or more has not yet led to an eruption. Here we present displacement maps of volcanoes in the Galápagos Islands, constructed using satellite radar interferometry, that might help explain this dichotomy. We show that all but one of the seven volcanoes on the islands of Isabela and Fernandina deformed during 1992-99. Cerro Azul and Fernandina erupted during the observation period and show evidence of inflation, co-eruptive deflation and shallow dyke intrusion. In contrast, the largest volcano, Sierra Negra, has not erupted, yet exhibits spatially and temporally variable deformation, with a maximum uplift of 2.7 m between 1992 and 1999, which can be modelled by a shallow inflating sill. Inflation during 1997-98, however, was accompanied by 'trapdoor' faulting on a steeply dipping fracture system within the caldera. Repeated trapdoor faulting over geological time has formed an arcuate intra-caldera ridge within Sierra Negra and may have acted to relax stresses above the magma chamber, inhibiting summit eruptions. Similar processes may help explain large uplift unaccompanied by eruptive activity at other volcanoes.
View details for Web of Science ID 000090032500040
View details for PubMedID 11069176
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Ground deformation near Gada 'Ale Volcano, Afar, observed by Radar Interferometry
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2000; 27 (19): 3093-3096
View details for Web of Science ID 000089711900017
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A mechanical model for intraplate earthquakes: Application to the New Madrid Seismic Zone
SCIENCE
2000; 289 (5488): 2329-2332
View details for Web of Science ID 000089593500046
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January 30, 1997 eruptive event on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, as monitored by continuous GPS
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
2000; 27 (17): 2757-2760
View details for Web of Science ID 000089254700043
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Rapid deformation of Kilauea Volcano: Global positioning system measurements between 1990 and 1996
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2000; 105 (B8): 18983-18998
View details for Web of Science ID 000088794600006
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Postseismic deformation following the 1906 San Francisco earthquake
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2000; 105 (B6): 13195-13209
View details for Web of Science ID 000087628000004
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Time-dependent triggered afterslip following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
2000; 105 (B3): 5615-5634
View details for Web of Science ID 000085772700004
- The rapid deformation of Kilauea volcano: GPS measurements between 1990 and 1996 Journal of Geophysical Research 2000; 105: 18, 983-998
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Volume strain within The Geysers geothermal field
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1999; 104 (B12): 29113-29131
View details for Web of Science ID 000084396100022
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Imaging magma transport during the 1997 seismic swarm off the Izu Peninsula, Japan
SCIENCE
1999; 286 (5441): 927-930
View details for Web of Science ID 000083368500035
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Dislocations in inhomogeneous media via a moduli perturbation approach: General formulation and two-dimensional solutions (vol 99, pg 13767, 1994)
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1999; 104 (B10): 23271-23277
View details for Web of Science ID 000083019100029
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Magma intrusion beneath Long Valley caldera confirmed by temporal changes in gravity
SCIENCE
1999; 285 (5436): 2119-2122
View details for Web of Science ID 000082734300040
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A shallow-dipping dike fed the 1995 flank eruption at Fernandina Volcano, Galapagos, observed by satellite radar interferometry
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
1999; 26 (8): 1077-1080
View details for Web of Science ID 000079793700019
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Kinematics of the Pacific North America plate boundary zone, northern California
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1999; 104 (B4): 7419-7441
View details for Web of Science ID 000079633900024
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Time-dependence of the stress shadowing effect and its relation to the structure of the lower crust
GEOLOGY
1999; 27 (2): 119-122
View details for Web of Science ID 000078617800006
- Corrrection to "Dislocations in inhomogeneous media via a multi-perturbation approach: general formulation and 2-D solutions" by Y. Du, P. Segall and H. Gao J. Geophys. Res. 1999; 101: 23271-23277
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Joint estimation of afterslip rate and postseismic relaxation following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1998; 103 (B11): 26975-26992
View details for Web of Science ID 000076918900007
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A note on induced stress changes in hydrocarbon and geothermal reservoirs
IASPEI Symposium on New Trends in Seismological Research - Studies of Seismicity Induced by Mining, Petroleum and Geothermal Activities at the IUGG Meeting
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. 1998: 117–28
View details for Web of Science ID 000074033200010
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Time dependent inversion of geodetic data
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1997; 102 (B10): 22391-22409
View details for Web of Science ID A1997YB71500002
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Quasi-static dislocations in three dimensional inhomogeneous media
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
1997; 24 (18): 2347-2350
View details for Web of Science ID A1997XW96300022
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Subsidence at The Geysers geothermal field, N California from a comparison of GPS and leveling surveys
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
1997; 24 (14): 1839-1842
View details for Web of Science ID A1997XL83700031
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Seismology - New insights into old earthquakes
NATURE
1997; 388 (6638): 122-123
View details for Web of Science ID A1997XK10900022
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Postseismic strain following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake from GPS and leveling measurements
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1997; 102 (B3): 4933-4955
View details for Web of Science ID A1997WM58400001
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GPS applications for geodynamics and earthquake studies
ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES
1997; 25: 301-336
View details for Web of Science ID A1997XB77200010
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The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake imaged from inversion of geodetic data - Reply
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1996; 101 (B9): 20137-20140
View details for Web of Science ID A1996VG39600009
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Earthquakes: Slow down for safety
NATURE
1996; 383 (6595): 21-22
View details for Web of Science ID A1996VF29500027
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Slip in the 1868 Hayward earthquake from the analysis of historical triangulation data
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1996; 101 (B7): 16101-16118
View details for Web of Science ID A1996UW81000022
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DILATANCY, COMPACTION, AND SLIP INSTABILITY OF A FLUID-INFILTRATED FAULT
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1995; 100 (B11): 22155-22171
View details for Web of Science ID A1995TE22500011
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RAPID DEFORMATION OF THE SOUTH FLANK OF KILAUEA VOLCANO, HAWAII
SCIENCE
1995; 267 (5202): 1328-1332
Abstract
The south flank of Kilauea volcano has experienced two large [magnitude (M) 7.2 and M 6.1] earthquakes in the past two decades. Global Positioning System measurements conducted between 1990 and 1993 reveal seaward displacements of Kilauea's central south flank at rates of up to about 10 centimeters per year. In contrast, the northern side of the volcano and the distal ends of the south flank did not displace significantly. The observations can be explained by slip on a low-angle fault beneath the south flank combined with dilation deep within Kilauea's rift system, both at rates of at least 15 centimeters per year.
View details for Web of Science ID A1995QK06800039
View details for PubMedID 17812606
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THE 1989 LOMA-PRIETA EARTHQUAKE IMAGED FROM INVERSION OF GEODETIC DATA
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1994; 99 (B11): 21835-21855
View details for Web of Science ID A1994PR67500022
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POROELASTIC STRESSING AND INDUCED SEISMICITY NEAR THE LACQ GAS-FIELD, SOUTHWESTERN FRANCE
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1994; 99 (B8): 15423-15438
View details for Web of Science ID A1994PB52000021
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DISLOCATIONS IN INHOMOGENEOUS-MEDIA VIA A MODULI PERTURBATION APPROACH - GENERAL FORMULATION AND 2-DIMENSIONAL SOLUTIONS
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1994; 99 (B7): 13767-13779
View details for Web of Science ID A1994NW51500016
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THE COSEISMIC SLIP DISTRIBUTION OF THE LANDERS EARTHQUAKE
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
1994; 84 (3): 646-659
View details for Web of Science ID A1994NQ99300013
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ESTIMATION OF DEPTH-DEPENDENT FAULT SLIP FROM MEASURED SURFACE DEFORMATION WITH APPLICATION TO THE 1906 SAN-FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1993; 98 (B7): 12153-12163
View details for Web of Science ID A1993LM63100030
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COSEISMIC DEFORMATION AND DISLOCATION MODELS OF THE 1989 LOMA-PRIETA EARTHQUAKE DERIVED FROM GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM MEASUREMENTS
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1993; 98 (B3): 4567-4578
View details for Web of Science ID A1993KQ87300037
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HOW SIMILAR WERE THE 1934 AND 1966 PARKFIELD EARTHQUAKES
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
1993; 98 (B3): 4527-4538
View details for Web of Science ID A1993KQ87300032
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RAPID INTRAPLATE STRAIN ACCUMULATION IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
SCIENCE
1992; 257 (5077): 1666-1669
Abstract
Remeasurement of a triangulation network in the southern part of the New Madrid seismic zone with the Global Positioning System has revealed rapid crustal strain accumulation since the 1950s. This area experienced three large (moment magnitudes >8) earthquakes in 1811 to 1812. The orientation and sense of shear is consistent with right-lateral strike slip motion along a northeast-trending fault zone (as indicated by current seismicity). Detection of crustal strain accumulation may be a useful discriminant for identifying areas where potentially damaging intraplate earthquakes may occur despite the absence of large earthquakes during historic time.
View details for Web of Science ID A1992JN50100026
View details for PubMedID 17841164
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COMPARISON OF VARIOUS INVERSION TECHNIQUES AS APPLIED TO THE DETERMINATION OF A GEOPHYSICAL DEFORMATION MODEL FOR THE 1983 BORAH PEAK EARTHQUAKE
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
1992; 82 (4): 1840-1866
View details for Web of Science ID A1992JH63100013
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INDUCED STRESSES DUE TO FLUID EXTRACTION FROM AXISYMMETRICAL RESERVOIRS
WORKSHOP ON INDUCED SEISMICITY, AS PART OF THE 33RD US ROCK MECHANICS SYMP
BIRKHAUSER VERLAG AG. 1992: 535–60
View details for Web of Science ID A1992LW50300010
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A FAULT MODEL FOR THE 1989 KILAUEA SOUTH FLANK EARTHQUAKE FROM LEVELING AND SEISMIC DATA
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
1991; 18 (12): 2217-2220
View details for Web of Science ID A1991GY09300011
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FAULT MECHANICS
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
1991; 29: 864-876
View details for Web of Science ID A1991FX96200040
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LATE CRETACEOUS AGE OF FRACTURES IN THE SIERRA-NEVADA BATHOLITH, CALIFORNIA
GEOLOGY
1990; 18 (12): 1248-1251
View details for Web of Science ID A1990EM17900020
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SURFACE DISPLACEMENTS IN THE 1906 SAN-FRANCISCO AND 1989 LOMA-PRIETA EARTHQUAKES
SCIENCE
1990; 250 (4985): 1241-1244
Abstract
The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.
View details for Web of Science ID A1990EK72300032
View details for PubMedID 17829210
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EARTHQUAKES TRIGGERED BY FLUID EXTRACTION
GEOLOGY
1989; 17 (10): 942-946
View details for Web of Science ID A1989AV57600018
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DISPLACEMENT CALCULATIONS FROM GEODETIC DATA AND THE TESTING OF GEOPHYSICAL DEFORMATION MODELS
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH AND PLANETS
1988; 93 (B12): 14954-14966
View details for Web of Science ID A1988R501100018
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DEVELOPMENT OF SIMPLE STRIKE-SLIP-FAULT ZONES, MOUNT ABBOT QUADRANGLE, SIERRA-NEVADA, CALIFORNIA
GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA BULLETIN
1988; 100 (9): 1451-1465
View details for Web of Science ID A1988Q057400010
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA, 1959-1984
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH AND PLANETS
1987; 92 (B3): 2747-2766
View details for Web of Science ID A1987G456700013
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NUCLEATION AND GROWTH OF STRIKE SLIP FAULTS IN GRANITE
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH
1983; 88 (NB1): 555-568
View details for Web of Science ID A1983QH61000005
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JOINT FORMATION IN GRANITIC ROCK OF THE SIERRA-NEVADA
GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA BULLETIN
1983; 94 (5): 563-575
View details for Web of Science ID A1983QS70500001
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FORMATION AND INTERPRETATION OF DILATANT ECHELON CRACKS
GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA BULLETIN
1982; 93 (12): 1291-1303
View details for Web of Science ID A1982PW64300009
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MECHANICS OF DISCONTINUOUS FAULTS
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH
1980; 85 (NB8): 4337-4350
View details for Web of Science ID A1980KF87600003