Rachel Fay

All Publications

• Rising temperatures contribute to West Nile virus diversification and increased transmission potential. Scientific reports Fay, R. L., Cruz-Loya, M., Maffei, J. G., Mordecai, E. A., Ciota, A. T. 2025; 15 (1): 25016

  Abstract

  West Nile virus (WNV), the most common mosquito-borne disease in the continental United States, is vectored by Culex spp. mosquitoes. Since its introduction to New York State (NYS) in 1999, WNV has become endemic. NYS temperatures have risen by 0.14 °C per decade since 1900, with larger increases linked to increased WNV transmission. In this study, we asked if increases in temperature in NYS influence virus diversification and adaptation, leading to shifts in thermal sensitivity. More specifically, do contemporary WNV strains have increased transmission potential at higher temperatures compared to historic strains? Using surveillance and sequencing data of WNV isolated from mosquitoes in NYS, we found a significant correlation between rising temperatures, increased WNV genetic diversity, and higher prevalence. We then analyzed genetically distinct WNV strains from mosquitoes collected during recent warm summers (2017 and 2018) and cooler historic summers (2003 and 2004). Assessing Culex pipiens dissemination efficiency and calculating the relative R₀ at 20 °C, 24 °C, and 28 °C, we found that contemporary strains exhibit higher transmission potential at increased temperatures. Our results show that contemporary WNV strains possess greater phenotypic and genotypic diversity, suggesting that climate warming in concert with viral adaptation may facilitate the emergence of strains with enhanced transmission potential.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41598-025-09284-5

  View details for PubMedID 40646045

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12254422

• Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates. iScience Fay, R. L., Cruz-Loya, M., Keyel, A. C., Price, D. C., Zink, S. D., Mordecai, E. A., Ciota, A. T. 2024; 27 (6): 109934

  Abstract

  Temperature is increasing globally, and vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to such increases. While it is known that temperature influences mosquito life history traits, transmission models have not historically considered population-specific effects of temperature. We assessed the interaction between Culex pipiens population and temperature in New York State (NYS) and utilized novel empirical data to inform predictive models of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Genetically and regionally distinct populations from NYS were reared at various temperatures, and life history traits were monitored and used to inform trait-based models. Variation in Cx. pipiens life history traits and population-dependent thermal responses account for a predicted 2.9°C difference in peak transmission that is reflected in regional differences in WNV prevalence. We additionally identified genetic signatures that may contribute to distinct thermal responses. Together, these data demonstrate how population variation contributes to significant geographic variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.

  View details for DOI 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109934

  View details for PubMedID 38799579

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC11126822