Renzhi Jing

All Publications

• Decreased likelihood of schooling as a consequence of tropical cyclones: Evidence from 13 low- and middle-income countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Jing, R., Heft-Neal, S., Wang, Z., Chen, J., Qiu, M., Opper, I. M., Wagner, Z., Bendavid, E. 2025; 122 (18): e2413962122

  Abstract

  Increasing educational attainment is one of the most important and effective strategies for health and economic improvements. The extent to which extreme climate events disrupt education, resulting in reduced educational attainment, remains understudied. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) may be uniquely vulnerable to losing schooling after disasters due to the poor physical condition of schools and the lack of resources to mitigate unexpected household shocks. Our analysis assesses this overlooked social cost of tropical cyclones on schooling attainment. We study the education records of nearly 5.4 million individuals living in 13 LMICs that experienced tropical cyclones between 1954 and 2010. By comparing individuals living in the same locations but with different exposure levels, we estimate the change in the likelihood that a preschool-age child exposed to tropical cyclone received no schooling. We find that exposure during preschool age is associated with a 0.5 percentage point increase in the likelihood of never attending schooling (2.5% above baseline), with larger effects (up to 8.8% increase) from stronger storms. These effects are more pronounced among girls and are greater in areas less adapted to tropical cyclones. Between 2000 and 2020, we estimate that 79,000 children in the 13 study countries did not start school due to tropical cyclones, and, across all affected students, tropical cyclones resulted in a total loss of 1.1 My of school. These impacts, identified among some of the world's poorest populations, may grow in importance as exposure to severe tropical cyclones is projected to increase with climate change.

  View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2413962122

  View details for PubMedID 40299694

• Global population profile of tropical cyclone exposure from 2002 to 2019. Nature Jing, R., Heft-Neal, S., Chavas, D. R., Griswold, M., Wang, Z., Clark-Ginsberg, A., Guha-Sapir, D., Bendavid, E., Wagner, Z. 2023

  Abstract

  Tropical cyclones have far-reaching impacts on livelihoods and population health that often persist years after the event [1,2,3,4]. Characterizing the demographic and socioeconomic profile and the vulnerabilities of exposed populations is essential to assess health and other risks associated with future tropical cyclone events [5]. Estimates of exposure to tropical cyclones are often regional rather than global [6] and do not consider population vulnerabilities [7]. Here, we combine spatially resolved annual demographic estimates with tropical cyclone wind fields estimates to construct a global profile of the populations exposed to tropical cyclones between 2002 and 2019. We find that approximately 560 million people are exposed yearly and that the number of people exposed has increased across all cyclone intensities over the study period. The age distribution of those exposed has shifted away from children (under-5) and towards older people (over-60) in recent years compared to the early 2000s. Populations exposed to tropical cyclones are more socioeconomically deprived than those unexposed within the same country, and this relationship is more pronounced for people exposed to higher-intensity storms. By characterizing the patterns and vulnerabilities of exposed populations, our results can help identify mitigation strategies and assess the global burden and future risks of tropical cyclones.

  View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-06963-z

  View details for PubMedID 38122822

• Infant and Neonatal Mortality During the Covid-19 Pandemic: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis From Five Low- and Middle-Income Countries. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences Wagner, Z., Heft-Neal, S., Wang, Z., Jing, R., Bendavid, E. 2023

  Abstract

  The Covid-19 pandemic led to widespread changes to health and social institutions. The effects of the pandemic on neonatal and infant health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are poorly understood, and nationally representative data characterizing changes to health care and outcomes is only now emerging.We used nationally representative survey data with vital status and perinatal care information on 2,959,203 children born in India, Madagascar, Cambodia, Nepal, and the Philippines. Using interrupted time series models, we estimated the change in neonatal mortality (death in first 30 days of life) and infant mortality (death in first year of life) following the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, controlling for granular location fixed-effects and seasonality.We analyzed 2,935,052 births (146,820 deaths) before March 2020 and 24,151 births (799 deaths) after March 2020. We estimated that infant mortality increased by 9.9 deaths per 1,000 live births after March 2020 (95% CI 5.0, 15.0; p<0.01; 22% increase) and neonatal mortality increased by 6.7 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% CI 2.4, 11.1; p<0.01; 27% increase). We observe increased mortality in all study countries. We also estimated a 3.8 percentage point reduction in antenatal care use (95% CI -4.9, -2.7; p<0.01) and a 5.6 percentage point reduction in facility deliveries (95% CI -7.2, -4.0; p<0.01) during the pandemic.Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, neonatal and infant mortality are higher than expected in five LMICs. Helping LMICs resume pre-pandemic declines in neonatal and infant mortality should be a major global priority.

  View details for DOI 10.1101/2023.08.03.23293619

  View details for PubMedID 37609306

  View details for PubMedCentralID PMC10441505