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  • Polygenic and monogenic adaptation drive evolutionary rescue at different magnitudes of environmental change. The Journal of heredity Bellagio, T., Exposito-Alonso, M. 2026

    Abstract

    Understanding the genetic basis of rapid adaptation is key to predicting species' evolutionary responses to environmental change. However, it is still debatable whether many small-effect mutations or a few large-effect mutations underlie rapid adaptation, and how this knowledge can predict population survival or extinction. To address this question, we performed a series of ecologically grounded forward-in-time genetic simulations to study rapid adaptation and extinction with increasing magnitudes of environmental change. These simulations were seeded with genomic variation of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana to have a realistic genomic structure, with one (monogenic) to 1000 (polygenic) variants with varying heritabilities contributing to an environmental adaptive trait. Our results revealed two distinct scenarios of rapid adaptation and population rescue. Under small to moderate environmental shifts, high polygenic traits increased evolutionary rescue probability. Under extreme environmental shifts, high polygenic traits lead predictably to extinction, yet monogenic traits sometimes produce one-off winning adaptive genotypes. We interpret our rapid evolutionary rescue findings in terms of the fundamental theorem of natural selection, where trait polygenicity shapes the distribution of genetic variance in fitness across replicates and, in turn, the probability of population survival, with polygenic architectures producing more stable and predictable fitness variance and monogenic architectures generating highly skewed and variable outcomes. These results highlight the insights genomics gives us into the (un)predictability of species' evolutionary responses to global change, with management implications for assisted adaptation and conservation.

    View details for DOI 10.1093/jhered/esag026

    View details for PubMedID 41954973

  • Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis. Science (New York, N.Y.) Wu, X., Bellagio, T., Peng, Y., Czech, L., Lin, M., Lang, P., Epstein, R., Abdelaziz, M., Alexander, J., Alonso-Blanco, C., Andersen, H. L., Berbel, M., Bergelson, J., Bossdorf, O., Burghardt, L., Caton-Darby, M., Colautti, R., Delker, C., Dimitrakopoulos, P. G., Donohue, K., Durka, W., Escribano-Avila, G., Franks, S. J., Fritschi, F. B., Galanidis, A., Garcia-Fernández, A., García-Muñoz, A., Hamann, E., Hutt, A., Iriondo, J. M., Juenger, T. E., Keller, S. R., Koehl, K., Korte, A., Korte, P., Kutschera, A., Lara-Romero, C., Leventhal, L., Maag, D., Marcer, A., March-Salas, M., de Meaux, J., Méndez-Vigo, B., Morente-López, J., Morton, T. C., Münzbergova, Z., Muola, A., Nomoto, H. A., Pärtel, M., Picó, F. X., Quarles-Chidyagwai, B., Quint, M., Reichelt, N., Rudak, A., Schmitt, J., Schmitz, G., Seifan, M., Snoek, B. L., Stam, R., Stift, M., Stinchcombe, J. R., Taylor, M. A., Tiffin, P., Till-Bottraud, I., Traveset, A., Valay, J. G., Van Zanten, M., Vandvik, V., Violle, C., Weigel, D., Wódkiewicz, M., Vasseur, F., Scheepens, J. F., Exposito-Alonso, M. 2026; 391 (6792): eadz0777

    Abstract

    Climate change forces species to adapt rapidly to avoid extinction. To directly observe rapid adaptation and extinction, we conducted synchronized evolution experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana in 30 locations across Western Europe, the Mediterranean, the Levant, and North America. Whole-genome pooled sequencing of ~70,000 surviving plants revealed repeatable allele frequency shifts in similar climates but divergent shifts across contrasting ones, indicating evolutionary adaptation. We identified genetic variants linked to climate adaptation, including genes involved in processes ranging from thermal-stress sensing to spring-flowering timing. Evolutionary trends were often predictable, but variable, across environments. In warmer climates, evolutionary predictability correlated with population survival over 5 years, whereas erratic changes preceded extinction. These results show that rapid climate adaptation is possible, but understanding its limits will be crucial for biodiversity forecasting.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adz0777

    View details for PubMedID 41886578

  • Rapid adaptation and extinction across climates in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis thaliana. bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology Wu, X., Bellagio, T., Peng, Y., Czech, L., Lin, M., Lang, P., Epstein, R., Abdelaziz, M., Alexander, J., Caton-Darby, M., Alonso-Blanco, C., Andersen, H. L., Berbel, M., Bergelson, J., Burghardt, L., Delker, C., Dimitrakopoulos, P. G., Donohue, K., Durka, W., Escribano-Avila, G., Franks, S. J., Fritschi, F. B., Galanidis, A., Garcia-Fernández, A., García-Muñoz, A., Hamann, E., Herber, M., Hutt, A., Iriondo, J. M., Juenger, T. E., Keller, S., Koehl, K., Korte, A., Korte, P., Kuschera, A., Lara-Romero, C., Leventhal, L., Maag, D., Marcer, A., March-Salas, M., de Meaux, J., Méndez-Vigo, B., Morente-López, J., Morton, T. C., Münzbergova, Z., Muola, A., Pärtel, M., Picó, F. X., Quarles-Chidyagwai, B., Quint, M., Reichelt, N., Rudak, A., Schmitt, J., Seifan, M., Snoek, B. L., Stam, R., Stinchcombe, J. R., Stift, M., Taylor, M. A., Tiffin, P., Till-Bottraud, I., Traveset, A., Valay, J. G., van Zanten, M., Vandvik, V., Violle, C., Wódkiewicz, M., Weigel, D., Bossdorf, O., Colautti, R., Vasseur, F., Scheepens, J. F., Exposito-Alonso, M. 2025

    Abstract

    Climate change is threatening species with extinction, and rapid evolutionary adaptation may be their only option for population rescue over short ecological timescales. However, direct observations of rapid genetic adaptation and population dynamics across climates are rare across species. To fill this gap, we conducted a replicated, globally synchronized evolution experiment with the plant Arabidopsis thaliana for 5 years in over 30 outdoor experimental gardens with distinct climates across Europe, the Levant, and North America. We performed whole-genome sequencing on ~70,000 surviving reproductive individuals and directly observed rapid and repeatable adaptation across climates. Allele frequency changes over time were parallel in experimental evolution replicates within the same climates, while they diverged across contrasting climates-with some allele frequency shifts best explained by strong selection between -46% to +60%. Screening the genome for signals of rapid climate adaptation identified a polygenic architecture with both known and novel adaptive genetic variants connected to important ecological phenotypes including environmental stress responses, CAM5 and HEAT SHOCK FACTORs, and germination and spring flowering timing, CYTOCHROME P450s and TSF. We found evolutionary adaptation trends were often predictable, but variable across environments. In warm climates, high evolutionary predictability was associated with population survival up to 5 years, while erratic trends were an early warning for population extinction. Together, these results show rapid climate adaptation may be possible, but understanding its limits across species will be key for biodiversity forecasting.

    View details for DOI 10.1101/2025.05.28.654549

    View details for PubMedID 40501611

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC12154770

  • From coral reefs to Joshua trees: What ecological interactions teach us about the adaptive capacity of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences Lagerstrom, K. M., Vance, S., Cornwell, B. H., Ruffley, M., Bellagio, T., Exposito-Alonso, M., Palumbi, S. R., Hadly, E. A. 2022; 377 (1857): 20210389

    Abstract

    The pervasive loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene necessitates rapid assessments of ecosystems to understand how they will respond to anthropogenic environmental change. Many studies have sought to describe the adaptive capacity (AC) of individual species, a measure that encompasses a species' ability to respond and adapt to change. Only those adaptive mechanisms that can be used over the next few decades (e.g. via novel interactions, behavioural changes, hybridization, migration, etc.) are relevant to the timescale set by the rapid changes of the Anthropocene. The impacts of species loss cascade through ecosystems, yet few studies integrate the capacity of ecological networks to adapt to change with the ACs of its species. Here, we discuss three ecosystems and how their ecological networks impact the AC of species and vice versa. A more holistic perspective that considers the AC of species with respect to their ecological interactions and functions will provide more predictive power and a deeper understanding of what factors are most important to a species' survival. We contend that the AC of a species, combined with its role in ecosystem function and stability, must guide decisions in assigning 'risk' and triaging biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

    View details for DOI 10.1098/rstb.2021.0389

    View details for PubMedID 35757872