Bio

David Lobell is the Benjamin M. Page Professor at Stanford University in the Department of Earth System Science and the Gloria and Richard Kushel Director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment. He is also the William Wrigley Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy and Research (SIEPR).

Lobell's research focuses on agriculture and food security, specifically on generating and using unique datasets to study rural areas throughout the world. His early research focused on climate change risks and adaptations in cropping systems, and he served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report as lead author for the food chapter and core writing team member for the Summary for Policymakers. More recent work has developed new techniques to measure progress on sustainable development goals and study the impacts of climate-smart practices in agriculture. His work has been recognized with various awards, including the Macelwane Medal from the American Geophysical Union (2010), a Macarthur Fellowship (2013), the National Academy of Sciences Prize in Food and Agriculture Sciences (2022) and election to the National Academy of Sciences (2023).

Prior to his Stanford appointment, Lobell was a Lawrence Post-doctoral Fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He holds a PhD in Geological and Environmental Sciences from Stanford University and a Sc.B. in Applied Mathematics from Brown University.

Academic Appointments

Administrative Appointments

  • Lawrence Postdoctoral Fellow, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (2005 - 2007)
  • Senior Research Scholar, Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University (2008 - 2009)
  • Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
  • Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
  • Center Fellow, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
  • Associate Director, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University (2012 - 2014)
  • Deputy Director, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University (2014 - Present)
  • Assistant Professor, Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University (2009 - Present)

Honors & Awards

  • NAS Food and Agriculture Prize, National Academy of Sciences (2022)
  • Outstanding Student Paper Award, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting (1999)
  • Honorary Doctorate, Brown University (2021)
  • Graduate Research Fellowship, NSF (2000-2004)
  • Carbon, Climate and Society Initiative Fellowship, NSF Integrative Graduate Education and Research Training (2001-2002)
  • Best of Session Award, ERIM Conference on Geospatial Information in Agriculture and Forestry (2001)
  • Graduate Student Fellowship, EPA Science to Achieve Results (2004)
  • Graduate Student Fellowship, NASA Earth System Science (2004)
  • Lawrence Fellowship, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (2005-2008)
  • NASA New Investigator Program Award, NASA (2008-2011)
  • Google Science Communication Fellow, Google (2010)
  • James B. Macelwane Medal, American Geophysical Union (2010)
  • Terman Fellow, Stanford University (2011-2014)
  • Macarthur Fellow, Macarthur Foundation (2014-2018)
  • Sir Frederick McMaster Fellowship, CSIRO, Australia (2014)

Boards, Advisory Committees, Professional Organizations

  • Advisor, Global Commission on Adaptation (2018 - Present)
  • Editorial Advisory Board Member, Global Food Security (2012 - Present)
  • Core Writing Team Member, IPCC Working Group 2 Summary for Policy Makers (2012 - 2014)
  • Editor, Global Change Biology (2011 - Present)
  • Woodrow Wilson Fellowship selection committee, School of Education, Stanford University (2011 - 2013)
  • Committee on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Political and Social Stresses, Member of National Academy of Sciences (2011 - 2012)
  • Member of Technical Advisory and Review Panel, World Bank Group activities related to climate change adaptation (2011 - 2012)
  • Advisory committee for Haas center, Stanford University (2010 - Present)
  • Fellow, American Geophysical Union (2010 - Present)
  • Freshman Advisor, Stanford University (2010 - Present)
  • Lead Author, IPCC Working Group 2, "Food Production Systems and Food Security" (2010 - 2014)
  • Stanford Interdisciplinary Graduate Fellowship review committee, Stanford University (2010 - 2013)
  • Woods Institute Environmental Venture Project proposal review committee, Stanford University (2010 - 2013)
  • Carnegie Institution Dept. of Global Ecology Search Committee, Stanford University (2010 - 2010)
  • EESS department seminar organizer, Stanford University (2010 - 2010)
  • Earth Systems Executive Committee, Land Track Leader, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
  • Earth Systems masters advisor, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
  • Goldman Honors Program Advisory Committee, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
  • PhD committees for four students, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
  • Editorial Board Member, Environmental Research Letters (2009 - 2013)
  • Member, National Academy of Sciences Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations (2009 - 2010)
  • Associate Editor, Journal of Environmental Quality (2008 - 2010)
  • Panel on Climate, Energy, and Security, Panel on Climate, Energy, and Security (2008 - 2008)
  • Workshop on Remote Sensing for Human Welfare, National Academy of Sciences (2006 - 2006)
  • Member, American Society of Agronomy (2005 - Present)
  • Member, Ecological Society of America (2005 - Present)
  • Land Cover Land Use Change Grant Review Panel, NASA (2005 - 2005)
  • Member, American Geophysical Union (2000 - Present)

Professional Education

  • Ph.D., Stanford University, Geological and Environmental Sciences (2005)
  • Sc.B., Brown University, Applied Mathematics (2000)

Patents

  • David Lobell. "United States Patent 9,953,241 Systems and Methods for Satellite Image Processing to Estimate Crop Yield", Apr 24, 2018

Contact

  • Academic
    dlobell@stanford.edu
    University - Faculty Department: Department of Earth System Science Position: Professor
    • 473 Via Ortega
    • Stanford,  California  94305 
    University - Faculty Department: Woods Institute Position: Senior Fellow
    University - Faculty Department: FSI - FSE Position: Senior Fellow

Additional Info

Links

Current Research and Scholarly Interests

Research
I study the interactions between food production, food security, and the environment using a range of modern tools. Current work focuses on three main areas of research: how to effectively adapt agriculture to climate change, how to reduce yield gaps in major cropping regions, and how to quantify environmental consequences of biofuel and food crop production. A common theme is the use of large datasets to constrain and improve models that represent our understanding of how the world works. Prospective students interested in food security, climate change, and/or how to combine models and large datasets in creative ways are encouraged to contact me.

Teaching
I regularly teach three courses open to both undergraduate and graduate students. One is Fundamentals of Modeling (EESS 211), which is a hands-on introduction to environmental modeling concepts and techniques, taught every year. Second is Feeding Nine Billion (ES185), an introduction to basics of crop ecology and agronomy, world crop production systems, and tradeoffs associated with various new practices or technologies, also taught every year (starting in 2013). Third is Climate and Agriculture (ES184) which covers different aspects of climate change impacts on food production and food security, and is taught every other year (next in 2015).

Professional Activities
Current activities in 2012: Lead author for IPCC Fifth Assessment Report; Member of National Academy of Science committee on "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Political and Social Stresses"; Member of Technical Advisory and Review Panel for World Bank Group activities related to climate change adaptation; Editor for Global Change Biology and Associate Editor for Environmental Research Letters; numerous academic and public lectures

Projects

  • Use of Climate Information in International Negotiations for Adaptation Resources, Stanford University

    Adaptation of vulnerable areas to climate change is---and will continue to be---an important subject of negotiations taking place in several international forums, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; the Major Economies negotiations; and the G-8 talks. Ideally, adaptation assistance to any given nation would be commensurate with the social and economic impacts of future climate change and the cost of the required adaptation measures. Instead, neither is known. Climatic changes themselves are only projected in broad strokes: important details at the regional and sub-seasonal scale---such as the changes in frequency of monsoon breaks in the Niger River basin, to make just one example---are not simulated directly by current climate models. Moreover, determining the economic impact of a given climate scenario is challenging, as is assessing the cost and efficacy of adaptation scenarios, as demonstrated by the controversy that followed the Stern review.

    Yet, as imperfect and incomplete as it is, the output of climate and economic models must inform negotiations for international adaptation funds---if those are not to be solely the result of political expediency. The aim of this project is to bring together climate scientists, economists, and law scholars to identify how to best achieve the goal of bringing climate and economic modeling results to bear on these negotiations. In particular, we want to identify (i) what is the most useful information that can be delivered to negotiators by state-of-the-art climatic and economic models, (ii) how that information can be most effectively presented, and (iii) how measures of uncertainty can be brought into the negotiation process as additional, valuable information.

    The proposed project is organized around three main questions that address (i) the nature of the information needed for the best allocation of resources, (ii) the form in which such information should be framed in order for it to be most comprehensible and useful to negotiators, and (iii) the extent to which uncertainty in the projections is now used to discount climate impact information and how instead uncertainty estimates can be reformulated as valuable information regarding the range and likelihood of possible outcomes and incorporated in the negotiation process.

    Location

    Africa

    Collaborators

    • Kaiyu Guan, Postdoctoral Research fellow, Environmental Earth System Science, School of Earth Sciences

    For More Information:

  • Quantification and reduction of uncertainties in projections of climate impacts on drought and agriculture for North America, Stanford (8/1/2011 - 7/31/2015)

    Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on climate variability and is thus susceptible to future changes including temperature extremes and drought. The latter is expected to increase in frequency regionally over this century. However, the uncertainty in projections of drought and its impacts on agriculture is high due to emission scenarios, climate model differences, uncertainty in initial/boundary conditions, and translation to regional scales. Climate models are unanimous in projecting future warming but differ in the magnitude and even sign of regional precipitation changes. They also differ in terms of extremes of temperature, precipitation and other meteorology. When projecting future impacts on crop productivity, these uncertainties are compounded because current crop models often use simplified treatments of climate response and do not include comprehensive treatments of water availability. Therefore, projections of regional climate change, variability and its impacts on water availability and agriculture are highly uncertain and reduction of uncertainties requires attention to all levels in the climate-water-agriculture continuum.

    Rationale: Given the uncertainties in future agricultural production and the complex relationships between climate, hydrology and crop development, there is pressing need to make improved estimates of future changes in climate change and crop yields. We propose to evaluate the uncertainties in estimates of future changes in climate, water availability and agricultural production, and make improved estimates by incorporating state of the art knowledge of the relationships between climate, hydrology and agriculture into modeling and downscaling. This has ramifications for disaster preparedness and mitigation, policy making and the political response to climate change, and intersects with fundamental science questions about climate change, extremes and hydrologic cycle intensification. It is central to the mission of the Climate Program Office’s MAPP program to “enhance the Nation’s capability to predict variability and changes of the Earth’s System” and directly addresses its priorities to evaluate and reduce uncertainties in climate projections. This work will leverage from the PIs’ experience and ongoing activities in large-scale climate analysis and hydrologic modeling, particularly in changes in drought historically and under future climates, and agricultural modeling and relationships between climate and crop productivity.

    Summary of work to be completed:

    Quantify the relationships between hydroclimate variables and the implications for water, drought and agriculture based on observational data.
    Evaluate sensitivities of hydrologic and crop models to changes in climate and drought. Differences in climate variability, land-atmosphere coupling and hydrologic persistence will lead to differences in key metrics of water and agriculture which will form the basis for evaluation of the uncertainties in future projections.
    Evaluate current climate models in how they replicate these observed relationships using the CMIP5 long-term and decadal predictions.
    Estimate uncertainties in future projections of climate, drought and agriculture using a cascade of climate, downscaling, hydrologic and crop models with strategic sampling to decompose sources of uncertainty.
    Implement a set of methods to reduce uncertainties in future projections based on observational constraints including merging of climate model predictions, bias correction and scaling of climate model output, and improvements to impact models.

    Location

    North America

    For More Information:

  • Evaluating Climate Adaptation Options in African Agriculture, Stanford University (1/1/2011 - 10/31/2014)

    FSE's previous Rockefeller project on "Prioritizing Investments in Food Security under a Changing Climate" pursued several research directions in an effort to better characterize the risks that climate change poses to agriculture in Africa. Among the lessons from the project were that climate change poses a substantial impediment to agricultural progress in Africa, that maize and Southern Africa are particularly vulnerable, and that inadequate soil moisture can substantially aggravate the effects of heat.

    Although several questions remain on the question of risks and adaptation needs, we are gradually shifting our research program to evaluate priorities from the perspective of adaptation opportunities. What works and what doesn't? Or more specifically, what are the most effective ways to deal with the most serious threats that climate change poses? And given the type and scale of current efforts at adaptation, is Africa on a trajectory to effectively adapt to climate change?

    A key lesson from prior work is that climate change is already underway and having non-trivial effects on agriculture, even today. From a research perspective, this increases the urgency of finding effective adaptations but also provides an opportunity to learn from ongoing attempts to adapt production systems.

    The research project includes four main components:

    Evaluating the adaptation potential for new crop varieties.
    Evaluating the adaptation potential of small-scale irrigation.
    Evaluating a suite of adaptation options in the Sahel.
    Characterizing ongoing and proposed adaptation activities.

    Location

    Africa

    For More Information:

  • Interdisciplinary Research on Introducing Heat-Tolerant Wheat to Bolster Food Security, Stanford University (8/1/2014 - 7/31/2017)

    The project is supported under the NSF Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability Fellows (SEES Fellows) program, with the goal of helping to enable discoveries needed to inform actions that lead to environmental, energy and societal sustainability while creating the necessary workforce to address these challenges. Sustainability science is an emerging field that addresses the challenges of meeting human needs without harm to the environment, and without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their needs. A strong scientific workforce requires individuals educated and trained in interdisciplinary research and thinking, especially in the area of sustainability science. With the SEES Fellowship support, this project will enable a promising early career researcher to establish herself in an independent research career related to sustainability. This project focuses on food sustainability and security on a global scale. The partnerships built into this project will give the Fellow significant inter-disciplinary training (adding the components of randomized controlled trials and crop modeling) beyond the scope of her current expertise. This is particularly important since her goal is to become a sustainability scientist who combines methods and tools from the natural and social sciences to understand how humans are impacted by and adapt to environmental change. Specifically, the Fellow will participate in an interdisciplinary institutes (Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford, and Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley). Also, at Stanford University, the Fellow will gain teaching and mentoring experience.

    Climate change is predicted to negatively impact agricultural communities and food security across the globe, with models estimating up to a 40% reduction in the yield of some crops by the end of the century. This is particularly problematic for wheat, which is a major staple crop (providing 20% of daily calories) that is already facing declining yields due to warming temperatures. Previous studies have shown that autonomous adaptation strategies (e.g. increasing irrigation, shifting planting date) are not enough to mitigate the negative impacts of warming, and planned adaptation strategies that introduce heat-tolerant wheat varieties are needed to sustainably bolster yields and food security in the face of climate change. Interdisciplinary research is necessary to (1) identify the most effective ways to introduce these new technologies to vulnerable communities, and (2) assess whether the predicted yield benefits of these crops are realized in the field where farmers may deviate from ideal management practices. This study uses randomized controlled trials from development economics to evaluate introduction strategies, remote sensing to quantify if new heat-tolerant wheat varieties provide yield benefits in the field, and process-based crop models to assess whether these new varieties provide predicted yield benefits in future warming scenarios. Understanding the effectiveness of information transfer is particularly important for heat-tolerant crops because, unlike high-yielding varieties introduced during the Green Revolution, heat-tolerant crops may not provide immediate benefits and only produce higher yields in unseasonably warm years. Thus, the adoption and diffusion of this technology may depend purely on whether farmers trust and receive accurate information about possible future benefits. This study is one of the first to examine the most effective ways to introduce new crops that mitigate against climate variability and future climate risk, which is necessary to sustainably enhance food security in the face of climate change.

    Location

    India

    Collaborators

    • Meha Jain, Postdoctoral Research fellow, Environmental Earth System Science, School of Earth Sciences

    For More Information:

  • Using Remote Sensing to Close the Corn Yield Gap in Northern China, Stan

    Location

    China

    Collaborators

    • Yi Zhao, Ph.D. Student in Environmental Earth System Science, admitted Autumn 2011, School of Earth Sciences
  • Prioritizing Investments in Food Security Under a Changing Climate, Stanford University (2008 - Present)

    A team led by FSE fellow David Lobell has found a valuable, untapped resource in historical data from crop yield trials conducted across sub-Saharan Africa. Combined with weather records, they show that yield losses would occur across 65 percent of maize-growing areas from a temperature rise of a single degree Celsius, even with sufficient water.

    Over much of the world, the growing season of 2050 will probably be warmer than the hottest of recent years, with more variable rainfall. If we continue to grow the same crops in the same way, climate change will contribute to yield declines in many places. With potentially less food to feed more people, we have no choice but to adapt agriculture to the new conditions. New approaches are needed to accelerate understanding of climate impacts on crop yields, particularly in tropical regions.

    This project is studying the potential effects of climate change on agriculture and adaptations options in African agriculture. The work will seek to assess climate threats to staple food crops at a country level, quantify the sources of uncertainty inherent in these assessments, and determine what implications shifts in crop climates have for agricultural adaptation and genetic resources preservation - with the end goal of helping prioritize investments in agricultural development and food security under a changing climate.

    Location

    Africa

    Collaborators

    • Walter Falcon, Stanford University
    • Rosamond Naylor, William Wrigley Professor, Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment and at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Professor, by courtesy, of Economics, Stanford University

    For More Information:

2024-25 Courses

Stanford Advisees

All Publications

  • Subfield-level crop yield mapping without ground truth data: A scale transfer framework REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Ma, Y., Liang, S., Myers, D., Swatantran, A., Lobell, D. B. 2024; 315

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114427

    View details for Web of Science ID 001316677400001

  • Towards transferable building damage assessment via unsupervised single-temporal change adaptation REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Zheng, Z., Zhong, Y., Zhang, L., Burke, M., Lobell, D. B., Ermon, S. 2024; 315

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114416

    View details for Web of Science ID 001329591400001

  • Uniting remote sensing, crop modelling and economics for agricultural risk management (vol 2, pg 140, 2021) NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Benami, E., Jin, Z., Carter, M. R., Ghosh, A., Hijmans, R. J., Hobbs, A., Kenduiywo, B., Lobell, D. B. 2024

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s43017-024-00617-y

    View details for Web of Science ID 001349342500001

  • Changes in the Yield Effect of the Preceding Crop in the US Corn Belt Under a Warming Climate. Global change biology Zhou, J., Zhu, P., Kluger, D. M., Lobell, D. B., Jin, Z. 2024; 30 (11): e17556

    Abstract

    Crop rotation has been widely used to enhance crop yields and mitigate adverse climate impacts. The existing research predominantly focuses on the impacts of crop rotation under growing season (GS) climates, neglecting the influences of non-GS (NGS) climates on agroecosystems. This oversight limits our understanding of the comprehensive climatic impacts on crop rotation and, consequently, our ability to devise effective adaptation strategies in response to climate warming. In this study, we examine the impacts of both GS and NGS climate conditions on the yield effect of the preceding crop in corn-soybean rotation systems from 1999 to 2018 in the US Midwest. Using causal forest analysis, we estimate that crop rotation increases corn and soybean yields by 0.96 and 0.22 t/ha on average, respectively. We then employ statistical models to indicate that increasing temperatures and rainfall in the NGS reduce corn rotation benefits, while warming GS enhances rotation benefits for soybeans. By 2051-2070, we project that warming climates will reduce corn rotation benefits by 6.74% under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 and 17.18% under SSP 5-8.5. For soybeans, warming climates are expected to increase rotation benefits by 8.36% under SSP 1-2.6 and 13.83% under SSP 5-8.5. Despite these diverse climate impacts on both crops, increasing crop rotation could still improve county-average yields, as neither corn nor soybean was fully rotated. If we project that all continuous corn and continuous soybeans are rotated by 2051-2070, county-average corn yields will increase by 0.265 t/ha under SSP 1-2.6 and 0.164 t/ha under SSP 5-8.5, while county-average soybean yields will gain 0.064 t/ha under SSP 1-2.6 and 0.076 t/ha under SSP 5-8.5. These findings highlight the effectiveness of crop rotation in the face of warming NGS and GS in the future and can help evaluate opportunities for adaptation.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.17556

    View details for PubMedID 39530133

  • Mapping sugarcane globally at 10 m resolution using Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) and Sentinel-2 EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA Di Tommaso, S., Wang, S., Strey, R., Lobell, D. B. 2024; 16 (10): 4931-4947

    View details for DOI 10.5194/essd-16-4931-2024

    View details for Web of Science ID 001344714000001

  • Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture. Science (New York, N.Y.) Yang, Y., Tilman, D., Jin, Z., Smith, P., Barrett, C. B., Zhu, Y. G., Burney, J., D'Odorico, P., Fantke, P., Fargione, J., Finlay, J. C., Rulli, M. C., Sloat, L., Jan van Groenigen, K., West, P. C., Ziska, L., Michalak, A. M., Lobell, D. B., Clark, M., Colquhoun, J., Garg, T., Garrett, K. A., Geels, C., Hernandez, R. R., Herrero, M., Hutchison, W. D., Jain, M., Jungers, J. M., Liu, B., Mueller, N. D., Ortiz-Bobea, A., Schewe, J., Song, J., Verheyen, J., Vitousek, P., Wada, Y., Xia, L., Zhang, X., Zhuang, M. 2024; 385 (6713): eadn3747

    Abstract

    Agriculture's global environmental impacts are widely expected to continue expanding, driven by population and economic growth and dietary changes. This Review highlights climate change as an additional amplifier of agriculture's environmental impacts, by reducing agricultural productivity, reducing the efficacy of agrochemicals, increasing soil erosion, accelerating the growth and expanding the range of crop diseases and pests, and increasing land clearing. We identify multiple pathways through which climate change intensifies agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, creating a potentially powerful climate change-reinforcing feedback loop. The challenges raised by climate change underscore the urgent need to transition to sustainable, climate-resilient agricultural systems. This requires investments that both accelerate adoption of proven solutions that provide multiple benefits, and that discover and scale new beneficial processes and food products.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.adn3747

    View details for PubMedID 39236181

  • Observational evidence for groundwater influence on crop yields in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Deines, J. M., Archontoulis, S. V., Huber, I., Lobell, D. B. 2024; 121 (36): e2400085121

    Abstract

    As climate change shifts crop exposure to dry and wet extremes, a better understanding of factors governing crop response is needed. Recent studies identified shallow groundwater-groundwater within or near the crop rooting zone-as influential, yet existing evidence is largely based on theoretical crop model simulations, indirect or static groundwater data, or small-scale field studies. Here, we use observational satellite yield data and dynamic water table simulations from 1999 to 2018 to provide field-scale evidence for shallow groundwater effects on maize yields across the United States Corn Belt. We identify three lines of evidence supporting groundwater influence: 1) crop model simulations better match observed yields after improvements in groundwater representation; 2) machine learning analysis of observed yields and modeled groundwater levels reveals a subsidy zone between 1.1 and 2.5 m depths, with yield penalties at shallower depths and no effect at deeper depths; and 3) locations with groundwater typically in the subsidy zone display higher yield stability across time. We estimate an average 3.4% yield increase when groundwater levels are at optimum depth, and this effect roughly doubles in dry conditions. Groundwater yield subsidies occur ~35% of years on average across locations, with 75% of the region benefitting in at least 10% of years. Overall, we estimate that groundwater-yield interactions had a net monetary contribution of approximately $10 billion from 1999 to 2018. This study provides empirical evidence for region-wide groundwater yield impacts and further underlines the need for better quantification of groundwater levels and their dynamic responses to short- and long-term weather conditions.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2400085121

    View details for PubMedID 39186643

  • Opportunities and Barriers for Agrivoltaics on Tribal Lands SUSTAINABILITY Moore, K. A., Lobell, D. B. 2024; 16 (13)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/su16135414

    View details for Web of Science ID 001269486600001

  • Eyes in the sky on Tigray, Ethiopia - Monitoring the impact of armed conflict on cultivated highlands using satellite imagery SCIENCE OF REMOTE SENSING Weldegebriel, L., Negash, E., Nyssen, J., Lobell, D. B. 2024; 9

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.srs.2024.100133

    View details for Web of Science ID 001247497800001

  • Further adoption of conservation tillage can increase maize yields in the western US Corn Belt ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Cambron, T. W., Deines, J. M., Lopez, B., Patel, R., Liang, S., Lobell, D. B. 2024; 19 (5)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3f32

    View details for Web of Science ID 001208554800001

  • HARVESTING INSIGHTS FROM CROP DATA ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Lobell, D. 2024; 40 (3)

    View details for Web of Science ID 001314824700002

  • Agricultural Productivity and Climate Mitigation ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESOURCE ECONOMICS Fuglie, K. O., Hertel, T. W., Lobell, D. B., Villoria, N. B. 2024; 16: 21-40

    View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev-resource-101323-094349

    View details for Web of Science ID 001333207400003

  • HarvestNet: A Dataset for Detecting Smallholder Farming Activity Using Harvest Piles and Remote Sensing Xu, J., Elmustafa, A., Weldegebriel, L., Negash, E., Lee, R., Meng, C., Ermon, S., Lobell, D., Wooldridge, M., Dy, J., Natarajan, S. ASSOC ADVANCEMENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. 2024: 22438-22446

    View details for Web of Science ID 001239985800063

  • The weekly cycle of photosynthesis in Europe reveals the negative impact of particulate pollution on ecosystem productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America He, L., Rosa, L., Lobell, D. B., Wang, Y., Yin, Y., Doughty, R., Yao, Y., Berry, J. A., Frankenberg, C. 2023; 120 (49): e2306507120

    Abstract

    Aerosols can affect photosynthesis through radiative perturbations such as scattering and absorbing solar radiation. This biophysical impact has been widely studied using field measurements, but the sign and magnitude at continental scales remain uncertain. Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), emitted by chlorophyll, strongly correlates with photosynthesis. With recent advancements in Earth observation satellites, we leverage SIF observations from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) with unprecedented spatial resolution and near-daily global coverage, to investigate the impact of aerosols on photosynthesis. Our analysis reveals that on weekends when there is more plant-available sunlight due to less particulate pollution, 64% of regions across Europe show increased SIF, indicating more photosynthesis. Moreover, we find a widespread negative relationship between SIF and aerosol loading across Europe. This suggests the possible reduction in photosynthesis as aerosol levels increase, particularly in ecosystems limited by light availability. By considering two plausible scenarios of improved air quality-reducing aerosol levels to the weekly minimum 3-d values and levels observed during the COVID-19 period-we estimate a potential of 41 to 50 Mt net additional annual CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems in Europe. This work assesses human impacts on photosynthesis via aerosol pollution at continental scales using satellite observations. Our results highlight i) the use of spatiotemporal variations in satellite SIF to estimate the human impacts on photosynthesis and ii) the potential of reducing particulate pollution to enhance ecosystem productivity.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2306507120

    View details for PubMedID 37983483

  • Transfer learning in environmental remote sensing REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Ma, Y., Chen, S., Ermon, S., Lobell, D. B. 2024; 301

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113924

    View details for Web of Science ID 001127637200001

  • Multicriteria Suitability Index for Prioritizing Early-Stage Deployments of Wastewater-Derived Fertilizers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental science & technology Wong, C. A., Lobell, D. B., Mauter, M. S. 2023

    Abstract

    Recycling nutrients from wastewater could simultaneously decrease the carbon intensity of traditional ammonia supply chains and increase the accessibility of local fertilizer. Despite the theoretical potential, techno-economic viability of wastewater nutrient recovery in sub-Saharan Africa has been poorly characterized at subnational scales. This work proposes a multicriteria suitability index to describe techno-economic viability of wastewater-derived fertilizer technologies with district-scale resolution. This index, with a range from 0 to 1 (highest suitability), incorporates key drivers, including population density, soil conditions, sanitation levels, and fertilizer prices. We found that suitability varies widely within and across countries in sub-Saharan Africa and that the primary limiting factor is the absence of sanitation infrastructure. Regions with a minimum of 10% cropland area and a suitability index of at least 0.9 were identified as highly suitable target regions for initial deployment. While they comprise only 1% of the analyzed area, these regions are home to 39 million people and contain up to 3.7 million hectares of cropland. Wastewater-derived fertilizer technologies could deliver an average of 25 kg of nitrogen per hectare of cropland, generating additional food equivalent to the annual consumption of 6 million people. Screening for high suitability can inform selection of effective lighthouse demonstration sites that derisk technology deployment and promote the transition to a more circular nutrient economy.

    View details for DOI 10.1021/acs.est.3c05435

    View details for PubMedID 37909918

  • Canopy Height Mapping for Plantations in Nigeria Using GEDI, Landsat, and Sentinel-2 REMOTE SENSING Tsao, A., Nzewi, I., Jayeoba, A., Ayogu, U., Lobell, D. B. 2023; 15 (21)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs15215162

    View details for Web of Science ID 001103325800001

  • Warming temperatures exacerbate groundwater depletion rates in India. Science advances Bhattarai, N., Lobell, D. B., Fishman, R., Kustas, W. P., Pokhrel, Y., Jain, M. 2023; 9 (35): eadi1401

    Abstract

    Climate change will likely increase crop water demand, and farmers may adapt by applying more irrigation. Understanding the extent to which this is occurring is of particular importance in India, a global groundwater depletion hotspot, where increased withdrawals may further jeopardize groundwater resources. Using historical data on groundwater levels, climate, and crop water stress, we find that farmers have adapted to warming temperatures by intensifying groundwater withdrawals, substantially accelerating groundwater depletion rates in India. When considering increased withdrawals due to warming, we project that the rates of net groundwater loss for 2041-2080 could be three times current depletion rates, even after considering projected increases in precipitation and possible decreases in irrigation use as groundwater tables fall. These results reveal a previously unquantified cost of adapting to warming temperatures that will likely further threaten India's food and water security over the coming decades.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adi1401

    View details for PubMedID 37656791

  • Annual Field-Scale Maps of Tall and Short Crops at the Global Scale Using GEDI and Sentinel-2 REMOTE SENSING Di Tommaso, S., Wang, S., Vajipey, V., Gorelick, N., Strey, R., Lobell, D. B. 2023; 15 (17)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs15174123

    View details for Web of Science ID 001060627300001

  • Soil micronutrients linked to human health in India. Scientific reports Morton, C. M., Pullabhotla, H., Bevis, L., Lobell, D. B. 2023; 13 (1): 13591

    Abstract

    Trace soil minerals are a critical determinant of both crop productivity and the mineral concentration of crops, therefore potentially impacting the nutritional status of human populations relying on those crops. We link health data from nearly 0.3 million children and one million adult women across India with over 27 million soil tests drawn from a nationwide soil health program. We find that soil zinc availability is positively associated with children's linear height growth, and soil iron availability is positively associated with hemoglobin levels. The link between soil zinc and childhood stunting is particularly robust-a one standard deviation increase in satisfactory soil zinc tests is associated with approximately 11 fewer children stunted per 1000. We also find that this zinc-stunting relationship is strongest in wealthier households. Our results suggest that soil mineral availability impacts human nutritional status and health in at least some areas of India, and that agronomic fortification may be a beneficial intervention.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41598-023-39084-8

    View details for PubMedID 37604890

  • Sustainable irrigation and climate feedbacks. Nature food Yang, Y., Jin, Z., Mueller, N. D., Driscoll, A. W., Hernandez, R. R., Grodsky, S. M., Sloat, L. L., Chester, M. V., Zhu, Y., Lobell, D. B. 2023

    Abstract

    Agricultural irrigation induces greenhouse gas emissions directly from soils or indirectly through the use of energy or construction of dams and irrigation infrastructure, while climate change affects irrigation demand, water availability and the greenhouse gas intensity of irrigation energy. Here, we present a scoping review to elaborate on these irrigation-climate linkages by synthesizing knowledge across different fields, emphasizing the growing role climate change may have in driving future irrigation expansion and reinforcing some of the positive feedbacks. This Review underscores the urgent need to promote and adopt sustainable irrigation, especially in regions dominated by strong, positive feedbacks.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s43016-023-00821-x

    View details for PubMedID 37591963

  • Reduced benefits of climate-smart agricultural policies from land-use spillovers NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Lobell, D. B., Villoria, N. B. 2023

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41893-023-01112-w

    View details for Web of Science ID 000990482500001

  • Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020 REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Deines, J. M., Swatantran, A., Ye, D., Myers, B., Archontoulis, S., Lobell, D. B. 2023; 291

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113551

    View details for Web of Science ID 000976523700001

  • Optimal index insurance and basis risk decomposition: an application to Kenya AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Stigler, M., Lobell, D. 2023

    View details for DOI 10.1111/ajae.12375

    View details for Web of Science ID 000920368100001

  • Recent cover crop adoption is associated with small maize and soybean yield losses in the United States. Global change biology Deines, J. M., Guan, K., Lopez, B., Zhou, Q., White, C. S., Wang, S., Lobell, D. B. 2022

    Abstract

    Cover crops are gaining traction in many agricultural regions, partly driven by increased public subsidies and by private markets for ecosystem services. These payments are motivated by environmental benefits, including improved soil health, reduced erosion, and increased soil organic carbon. However, previous work based on experimental plots or crop modeling indicates cover crops may reduce crop yields. It remains unclear, though, how recent cover crop adoption has affected productivity in commercial agricultural systems. Here we perform the first large-scale, field-level analysis of observed yield impacts from cover cropping as implemented across the US Corn Belt. We use validated satellite data products at sub-field scales to analyze maize and soybean yield outcomes for over 90,000 fields in 2019-2020. Because we lack data on cover crop species or timing, we seek to quantify the yield impacts of cover cropping as currently practiced in aggregate. Using causal forests analysis, we estimate an average maize yield loss of 5.5% on fields where cover crops were used for 3 or more years, compared with fields that did not adopt cover cropping. Maize yield losses were larger on fields with better soil ratings, cooler mid-season temperatures, and lower spring rainfall. For soybeans, average yield losses were 3.5%, with larger impacts on fields with warmer June temperatures, lower spring and late-season rainfall, and, to a lesser extent, better soils. Estimated impacts are consistent with multiple mechanisms indicated by experimental and simulation-based studies, including the effects of cover crops on nitrogen dynamics, water consumption, and soil oxygen depletion. Our results suggest a need to improve cover crop management to reduce yield penalties, and a potential need to target subsidies based on likely yield impacts. Ultimately, avoiding substantial yield penalties is important for realizing widespread adoption and associated benefits for water quality, erosion, soil carbon, and greenhouse gas emissions.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.16489

    View details for PubMedID 36345737

  • Unlocking Large-Scale Crop Field Delineation in Smallholder Farming Systems with Transfer Learning and Weak Supervision REMOTE SENSING Wang, S., Waldner, F., Lobell, D. B. 2022; 14 (22)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs14225738

    View details for Web of Science ID 000887710300001

  • Higher levels of no-till agriculture associated with lower PM2.5 in the Corn Belt ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Behrer, A., Lobell, D. 2022; 17 (9)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac816f

    View details for Web of Science ID 000843295600001

  • Globally ubiquitous negative effects of nitrogen dioxide on crop growth. Science advances Lobell, D. B., Di Tommaso, S., Burney, J. A. 2022; 8 (22): eabm9909

    Abstract

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are among the most widely emitted pollutants in the world, yet their impacts on agriculture remain poorly known. NOx can directly damage crop cells and indirectly affect growth by promoting ozone (O3) and aerosol formation. We use satellite measures of both crop greenness and NOx during 2018-2020 to evaluate crop impacts for five major agricultural regions. We find consistent negative associations between NO2 and greenness across regions and seasons. These effects are strongest in conditions where O3 formation is NOx limited but remain significant even in locations where this pathway is muted, suggesting a role for direct NOx damage. Using simple counterfactuals and leveraging published relationships between greenness and growth, we estimate that reducing NOx levels to the current fifth percentile in each region would raise yields by ~25% for winter crops in China, ~15% for summer crops in China, and up to 10% in other regions.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.abm9909

    View details for PubMedID 35648854

  • Globally ubiquitous negative effects of nitrogen dioxide on crop growth SCIENCE ADVANCES Lobell, D. B., Di Tommaso, S., Burney, J. A. 2022; 8 (22)

    View details for DOI 10.5281/zenodo.6363277

    View details for Web of Science ID 000808053900021

  • Early- and in-season crop type mapping without current-year ground truth: Generating labels from historical information via a topology-based approach REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Lin, C., Zhong, L., Song, X., Dong, J., Lobell, D. B., Jin, Z. 2022; 274

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2022.112994

    View details for Web of Science ID 000798980400001

  • Combining randomized field experiments with observational satellite data to assess the benefits of crop rotations on yields ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Kluger, D. M., Owen, A. B., Lobell, D. B. 2022; 17 (4)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6083

    View details for Web of Science ID 000778724700001

  • Mapping Sugarcane in Central India with Smartphone Crowdsourcing REMOTE SENSING Lee, J., Wang, S., Figueroa, A., Strey, R., Lobell, D. B., Naylor, R. L., Gorelick, S. M. 2022; 14 (3)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs14030703

    View details for Web of Science ID 000760308600001

  • Evaluating maize yield response to fertilizer and soil in Mexico using ground and satellite approaches FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Campolo, J., Ortiz-Monasterio, I., Guerena, D., Lobell, D. B. 2022; 276

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108393

    View details for Web of Science ID 000742588200004

  • IS-Count: Large-Scale Object Counting from Satellite Images with Covariate-Based Importance Sampling Meng, C., Liu, E., Neiswanger, W., Song, J., Burke, M., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., Assoc Advancement Artificial Intelligence ASSOC ADVANCEMENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. 2022: 12034-12042

    View details for Web of Science ID 000893639105007

  • Combining GEDI and Sentinel-2 for wall-to-wall mapping of tall and short crops ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Di Tommaso, S., Wang, S., Lobell, D. B. 2021; 16 (12)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac358c

    View details for Web of Science ID 000720114400001

  • Prior crop season management constrains farmer adaptation to warming temperatures: Evidence from the Indo-Gangetic Plains. The Science of the total environment Ishtiaque, A., Singh, S., Lobell, D., Singh, B., Fishman, R., Jain, M. 2021: 151671

    Abstract

    Climate change induced heat stress is predicted to negatively impact wheat yields across the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India. Research suggests that early sowing of wheat can substantially reduce this impact. However, a large proportion of farmers sow wheat late across this region, likely resulting in large-scale yield loss. We examined the extent of late wheat sowing across the IGP and which perceptional, management, biophysical, and socio-economic factors are associated with delayed sowing using household survey data from 2429 farmers and the cumulative logit model. Our results indicate that despite understanding that early sowing can be helpful to avoid terminal heat stress, over 50% of farmers sow wheat later than their perceived ideal wheat sowing date. We find that variables related to how wheat fields are prepared prior to sowing are associated with wheat sowing date. Specifically, farmers who had shorter fallow periods prior to sowing wheat and those who used zero tillage were 95% and 65% more likely to sow wheat earlier, respectively. In addition, we found that how farmers managed their rice crop in the preceding cropping season impacted wheat sowing date - farmers who transplanted and harvested rice later and/or planted longer duration rice varieties sowed their wheat later. Our results suggest that policies that promote earlier sowing of rice, such as improved access to irrigation and direct seeding machinery, and reduced field preparation time, such as wider adoption of zero tillage technologies, can help farmers across the IGP sow wheat earlier. This is critical given that warming temperatures will only increase the negative impacts of terminal heat stress on wheat yields across this region over the coming decades.

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151671

    View details for PubMedID 34801489

  • Two shifts for crop mapping: Leveraging aggregate crop statistics to improve satellite-based maps in new regions REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Kluger, D. M., Wang, S., Lobell, D. B. 2021; 262

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112488

    View details for Web of Science ID 000663567700002

  • The impact of groundwater depletion on agricultural production in India ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Bhattarai, N., Pollack, A., Lobell, D. B., Fishman, R., Singh, B., Dar, A., Jain, M. 2021; 16 (8)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac10de

    View details for Web of Science ID 000674715900001

  • Twice Is Nice: The Benefits of Two Ground Measures for Evaluating the Accuracy of Satellite-Based Sustainability Estimates REMOTE SENSING Lobell, D. B., Di Tommaso, S., Burke, M., Kilic, T. 2021; 13 (16)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs13163160

    View details for Web of Science ID 000690181500001

  • Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of US maize and soybean yield gains since 1999 ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Burney, J. A. 2021; 16 (7)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0fa4

    View details for Web of Science ID 000673370900001

  • Using Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Planet Imagery to Map Crop Type of Smallholder Farms REMOTE SENSING Rao, P., Zhou, W., Bhattarai, N., Srivastava, A. K., Singh, B., Poonia, S., Lobell, D. B., Jain, M. 2021; 13 (10)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs13101870

    View details for Web of Science ID 000662650300001

  • Scalable deep learning to identify brick kilns and aid regulatory capacity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Lee, J., Brooks, N. R., Tajwar, F., Burke, M., Ermon, S., Lobell, D. B., Biswas, D., Luby, S. P. 2021; 118 (17)

    Abstract

    Improving compliance with environmental regulations is critical for promoting clean environments and healthy populations. In South Asia, brick manufacturing is a major source of pollution but is dominated by small-scale, informal producers who are difficult to monitor and regulate-a common challenge in low-income settings. We demonstrate a low-cost, scalable approach for locating brick kilns in high-resolution satellite imagery from Bangladesh. Our approach identifies kilns with 94.2% accuracy and 88.7% precision and extracts the precise GPS coordinates of every brick kiln across Bangladesh. Using these estimates, we show that at least 12% of the population of Bangladesh (>18 million people) live within 1 km of a kiln and that 77% and 9% of kilns are (illegally) within 1 km of schools and health facilities, respectively. Finally, we show how kilns contribute up to 20.4 mug/[Formula: see text] of [Formula: see text] (particulate matter of a diameter less than 2.5 mum) in Dhaka when the wind blows from an unfavorable direction. We document inaccuracies and potential bias with respect to local regulations in the government data. Our approach demonstrates how machine learning and Earth observation can be combined to better understand the extent and implications of regulatory compliance in informal industry.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2018863118

    View details for PubMedID 33888583

  • Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Ortiz-Bobea, A., Ault, T. R., Carrillo, C. M., Chambers, R. G., Lobel, D. B. 2021; 11 (4): 306-U28

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000635963900011

  • A million kernels of truth: Insights into scalable satellite maize yield mapping and yield gap analysis from an extensive ground dataset in the US Corn REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Deines, J. M., Patel, R., Liang, S., Dado, W., Lobell, D. B. 2021; 253

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2020.112174

    View details for Web of Science ID 000604325300006

  • Uniting remote sensing, crop modelling and economics for agricultural risk management NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Benami, E., Jin, Z., Carter, M. R., Ghosh, A., Hijmans, R. J., Hobbs, A., Kenduiywo, B., Lobell, D. B. 2021; 2 (2): 140-159

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s43017-020-00122-y

    View details for Web of Science ID 000671874300008

  • Evaluation of soil-dependent crop yield outcomes in Nepal using ground and satellite-based approaches FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Campolo, J., Guerena, D., Maharjan, S., Lobell, D. B. 2021; 260

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2020.107987

    View details for Web of Science ID 000595860000007

  • Geography-Aware Self-Supervised Learning Ayush, K., Uzkent, B., Meng, C., Tanmay, K., Burke, M., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., IEEE IEEE. 2021: 10161-10170

    View details for DOI 10.1109/ICCV48922.2021.01002

    View details for Web of Science ID 000798743200016

  • Efficient Poverty Mapping from High Resolution Remote Sensing Images Ayush, K., Uzkent, B., Tanmay, K., Burke, M., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., Assoc Advancement Artificial Intelligence ASSOC ADVANCEMENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. 2021: 12-20

    View details for Web of Science ID 000680423500002

  • Predicting Livelihood Indicators from Community-Generated Street-Level Imagery Lee, J., Grosz, D., Uzkent, B., Zeng, S., Burke, M., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., Assoc Advancement Artificial Intelligence ASSOC ADVANCEMENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. 2021: 268-276

    View details for Web of Science ID 000680423500031

  • Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development. Science (New York, N.Y.) Burke, M., Driscoll, A., Lobell, D. B., Ermon, S. 2021; 371 (6535)

    Abstract

    Accurate and comprehensive measurements of a range of sustainable development outcomes are fundamental inputs into both research and policy. We synthesize the growing literature that uses satellite imagery to understand these outcomes, with a focus on approaches that combine imagery with machine learning. We quantify the paucity of ground data on key human-related outcomes and the growing abundance and improving resolution (spatial, temporal, and spectral) of satellite imagery. We then review recent machine learning approaches to model-building in the context of scarce and noisy training data, highlighting how this noise often leads to incorrect assessment of model performance. We quantify recent model performance across multiple sustainable development domains, discuss research and policy applications, explore constraints to future progress, and highlight research directions for the field.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.abe8628

    View details for PubMedID 33737462

  • High-Resolution Soybean Yield Mapping Across the US Midwest Using Subfield Harvester Data REMOTE SENSING Dado, W. T., Deines, J. M., Patel, R., Liang, S., Lobell, D. B. 2020; 12 (21)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs12213471

    View details for Web of Science ID 000589238400001

  • Changes in the drought sensitivity of US maize yields. Nature food Lobell, D. B., Deines, J. M., Tommaso, S. D. 2020; 1 (11): 729-735

    Abstract

    As climate change leads to increased frequency and severity of drought in many agricultural regions, a prominent adaptation goal is to reduce the drought sensitivity of crop yields. Yet many of the sources of average yield gains are more effective in good weather, leading to heightened drought sensitivity. Here we consider two empirical strategies for detecting changes in drought sensitivity and apply them to maize in the United States, a crop that has experienced myriad management changes including recent adoption of drought-tolerant varieties. We show that a strategy that utilizes weather-driven temporal variations in drought exposure is inconclusive because of the infrequent occurrence of substantial drought. In contrast, a strategy that exploits within-county spatial variability in drought exposure, driven primarily by differences in soil water storage capacity, reveals robust trends over time. Yield sensitivity to soil water storage increased by 55% on average across the US Corn Belt since 1999, with larger increases in drier states. Although yields have been increasing under all conditions, the cost of drought relative to good weather has also risen. These results highlight the difficulty of simultaneously raising average yields and lowering drought sensitivity.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s43016-020-00165-w

    View details for PubMedID 37128028

    View details for PubMedCentralID 6196545

  • Changes in the drought sensitivity of US maize yields NATURE FOOD Lobell, D. B., Deines, J. M., Di Tommaso, S. 2020; 1 (11): 729–35

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s43016-020-00165-w

    View details for Web of Science ID 000607142400015

  • Mapping Crop Types in Southeast India with Smartphone Crowdsourcing and Deep Learning REMOTE SENSING Wang, S., Di Tommaso, S., Faulkner, J., Friedel, T., Kennepohl, A., Strey, R., Lobell, D. B. 2020; 12 (18)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs12182957

    View details for Web of Science ID 000580683500001

  • The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Diffenbaugh, N. S., Field, C. B., Appel, E. A., Azevedo, I. L., Baldocchi, D. D., Burke, M., Burney, J. A., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Fiore, A. M., Fletcher, S. M., Hertel, T. W., Horton, D. E., Hsiang, S. M., Jackson, R. B., Jin, X., Levi, M., Lobell, D. B., McKinley, G. A., Moore, F. C., Montgomery, A., Nadeau, K. C., Pataki, D. E., Randerson, J. T., Reichstein, M., Schnell, J. L., Seneviratne, S., Singh, D., Steiner, A. L., Wong-Parodi, G. 2020; 1 (9): 470-481

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s43017-020-0079-1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000649448400008

  • Factors Constraining Timely Sowing of Wheat as an Adaptation to Climate Change in Eastern India WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY Newport, D., Lobell, D. B., Balwinder-Singh, Srivastava, A. K., Rao, P., Umashaanker, M., Malik, R. K., Mcdonald, A., Jain, M. 2020; 12 (3): 515–28

    View details for DOI 10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0122.1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000628840600012

  • On the role of anthropogenic climate change in the emerging food crisis in Southern Africa in the 2019-2020 growing season. Global change biology Wolski, P., Lobell, D., Stone, D., Pinto, I., Crespo, O., Johnston, P. 2020

    Abstract

    The failure of early (October-December) rains, amidst a multi-year drought, has raised concerns of a potential emerging food security crisis in parts of southern Africa, with an estimated 45 million people at risk of severe food insecurity (WFP, 2019). Here we evaluate recent climate data to assess the possible role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in the emerging crisis in this region spanning southern Mozambique, Zimbabwe and central and western Zambia.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.15047

    View details for PubMedID 32073716

  • Viewpoint: Principles and priorities for one CGIAR FOOD POLICY Lobell, D. B. 2020; 91

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101825

    View details for Web of Science ID 000517652900005

  • From sunlight to seed: Assessing limits to solar radiation capture and conversion in agro-ecosystems AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Edreira, J., Mourtzinis, S., Azzari, G., Andrade, J. F., Conley, S. P., Lobell, D., Specht, J. E., Grassini, P. 2020; 280

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107775

    View details for Web of Science ID 000525807000012

  • Weakly Supervised Deep Learning for Segmentation of Remote Sensing Imagery REMOTE SENSING Wang, S., Chen, W., Xie, S., Azzari, G., Lobell, D. B. 2020; 12 (2)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs12020207

    View details for Web of Science ID 000515569800006

  • EYES IN THE SKY, BOOTS ON THE GROUND: ASSESSING SATELLITE- AND GROUND-BASED APPROACHES TO CROP YIELD MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Lobell, D. B., Azzari, G., Burke, M., Gourlay, S., Jin, Z., Kilic, T., Murray, S. 2020; 102 (1): 202–19

    View details for DOI 10.1093/ajae/aaz051

    View details for Web of Science ID 000509352400013

  • LANDSAT-BASED RECONSTRUCTION OF CORN AND SOYBEAN YIELD HISTORIES IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE 1999 Lobell, D. B., Dado, W. T., Deines, J., Di Tommaso, S., Wang, S., IEEE IEEE. 2020: 5179-5182

    View details for DOI 10.1109/IGARSS39084.2020.9323792

    View details for Web of Science ID 000664335304245

  • META-LEARNING FOR FEW-SHOT TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION Wang, S., Russwurm, M., Koerner, M., Lobell, D. B., IEEE IEEE. 2020: 7041-7044

    View details for DOI 10.1109/IGARSS39084.2020.9441016

    View details for Web of Science ID 000664335306166

  • Using publicly available satellite imagery and deep learning to understand economic well-being in Africa. Nature communications Yeh, C. n., Perez, A. n., Driscoll, A. n., Azzari, G. n., Tang, Z. n., Lobell, D. n., Ermon, S. n., Burke, M. n. 2020; 11 (1): 2583

    Abstract

    Accurate and comprehensive measurements of economic well-being are fundamental inputs into both research and policy, but such measures are unavailable at a local level in many parts of the world. Here we train deep learning models to predict survey-based estimates of asset wealth across ~ 20,000 African villages from publicly-available multispectral satellite imagery. Models can explain 70% of the variation in ground-measured village wealth in countries where the model was not trained, outperforming previous benchmarks from high-resolution imagery, and comparison with independent wealth measurements from censuses suggests that errors in satellite estimates are comparable to errors in existing ground data. Satellite-based estimates can also explain up to 50% of the variation in district-aggregated changes in wealth over time, with daytime imagery particularly useful in this task. We demonstrate the utility of satellite-based estimates for research and policy, and demonstrate their scalability by creating a wealth map for Africa's most populous country.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-16185-w

    View details for PubMedID 32444658

  • Sight for Sorghums: Comparisons of Satellite- and Ground-Based Sorghum Yield Estimates in Mali REMOTE SENSING Lobell, D. B., Di Tommaso, S., You, C., Djima, I., Burke, M., Kilic, T. 2020; 12 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs12010100

    View details for Web of Science ID 000515391700100

  • Mapping twenty years of corn and soybean across the US Midwest using the Landsat archive. Scientific data Wang, S. n., Di Tommaso, S. n., Deines, J. M., Lobell, D. B. 2020; 7 (1): 307

    Abstract

    Field-level monitoring of crop types in the United States via the Cropland Data Layer (CDL) has played an important role in improving production forecasts and enabling large-scale study of agricultural inputs and outcomes. Although CDL offers crop type maps across the conterminous US from 2008 onward, such maps are missing in many Midwestern states or are uneven in quality before 2008. To fill these data gaps, we used the now-public Landsat archive and cloud computing services to map corn and soybean at 30 m resolution across the US Midwest from 1999-2018. Our training data were CDL from 2008-2018, and we validated the predictions on CDL 1999-2007 where available, county-level crop acreage statistics, and state-level crop rotation statistics. The corn-soybean maps, which we call the Corn-Soy Data Layer (CSDL), are publicly hosted on Google Earth Engine and also available for download online.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41597-020-00646-4

    View details for PubMedID 32934216

  • Satellites reveal a small positive yield effect from conservation tillage across the US Corn Belt ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Deines, J. M., Wang, S., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 14 (12)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ab503b

    View details for Web of Science ID 000514833200013

  • Rotation Effects on Corn and Soybean Yield Inferred from Satellite and Field-level Data AGRONOMY JOURNAL Cohen, A., Seifert, C. A., Azzari, G., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 111 (6): 2940–48

    View details for DOI 10.2134/agronj2019.03.0157

    View details for Web of Science ID 000505571400031

  • A new spin on an old debate: Errors in farmer-reported production and their implications for inverse scale - Productivity relationship in Uganda JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS Gourlay, S., Kilic, T., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 141

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102376

    View details for Web of Science ID 000497254800014

  • The impact of agricultural interventions can be doubled by using satellite data NATURE SUSTAINABILITY Jain, M., Balwinder-Singh, Rao, P., Srivastava, A. K., Poonia, S., Blesh, J., Azzari, G., McDonald, A. J., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 2 (10): 931–34

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41893-019-0396-x

    View details for Web of Science ID 000489530200014

  • The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India. Nature communications Zaveri, E., B Lobell, D. 2019; 10 (1): 4144

    Abstract

    Irrigation has been pivotal in wheat's rise as a major crop in India and is likely to be increasingly important as an adaptation response to climate change. Here we use historical data across 40 years to quantify the contribution of irrigation to wheat yield increases and the extent to which irrigation reduces sensitivity to heat. We estimate that national yields in the 2000s are 13% higher than they would have been without irrigation trends since 1970. Moreover, irrigated wheat exhibits roughly one-quarter of the heat sensitivity estimated for fully rainfed conditions. However, yield gains from irrigation expansion have slowed in recent years and negative impacts of warming have continued to accrue despite lower heat sensitivity from the widespread expansion of irrigation. We conclude that as constraints on expanding irrigation become more binding, furthering yield gains in the face of additional warming is likely to present an increasingly difficult challenge.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-12183-9

    View details for PubMedID 31515485

  • Integrating satellite and climate data to predict wheat yield in Australia using machine learning approaches AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Cai, Y., Guan, K., Lobell, D., Potgieter, A. B., Wang, S., Peng, J., Xu, T., Asseng, S., Zhang, Y., You, L., Peng, B. 2019; 274: 144–59

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.010

    View details for Web of Science ID 000471356600014

  • Smallholder maize area and yield mapping at national scales with Google Earth Engine REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Jin, Z., Azzari, G., You, C., Di Tommaso, S., Aston, S., Burke, M., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 228: 115–28

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2019.04.016

    View details for Web of Science ID 000470050500009

  • How much will precision nitrogen management pay off? An evaluation based on simulating thousands of corn fields over the US Corn-Belt FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Jin, Z., Archontoulis, S. V., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 240: 12–22

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2019.04.013

    View details for Web of Science ID 000483411700002

  • Crop type mapping without field-level labels: Random forest transfer and unsupervised clustering techniques REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Wang, S., Azzari, G., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 222: 303–17

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2018.12.026

    View details for Web of Science ID 000457509000022

  • Satellite detection of cover crops and their effects on crop yield in the Midwestern United States (vol 13, 064033, 2018) ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Seifert, C. A., Azzari, G., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 14 (3)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf933

    View details for Web of Science ID 000461665600001

  • Satellite mapping of tillage practices in the North Central US region from 2005 to 2016 REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Azzari, G., Grassini, P., Edreira, J., Conley, S., Mourtzinis, S., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 221: 417–29

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2018.11.010

    View details for Web of Science ID 000456640700032

  • Water Use Efficiency as a Constraint and Target for Improving the Resilience and Productivity of C3 and C4 Crops. Annual review of plant biology Leakey, A. D., Ferguson, J. N., Pignon, C. P., Wu, A. n., Jin, Z. n., Hammer, G. L., Lobell, D. B. 2019; 70: 781–808

    Abstract

    The ratio of plant carbon gain to water use, known as water use efficiency (WUE), has long been recognized as a key constraint on crop production and an important target for crop improvement. WUE is a physiologically and genetically complex trait that can be defined at a range of scales. Many component traits directly influence WUE, including photosynthesis, stomatal and mesophyll conductances, and canopy structure. Interactions of carbon and water relations with diverse aspects of the environment and crop development also modulate WUE. As a consequence, enhancing WUE by breeding or biotechnology has proven challenging but not impossible. This review aims to synthesize new knowledge of WUE arising from advances in phenotyping, modeling, physiology, genetics, and molecular biology in the context of classical theoretical principles. In addition, we discuss how rising atmospheric CO2 concentration has created and will continue to create opportunities for enhancing WUE by modifying the trade-off between photosynthesis and transpiration.

    View details for PubMedID 31035829

  • Water Use Efficiency as a Constraint and Target for Improving the Resilience and Productivity of C-3 and C-4 Crops ANNUAL REVIEW OF PLANT BIOLOGY, VOL 70 Leakey, A. B., Ferguson, J. N., Pignon, C. P., Wu, A., Jin, Z., Hammer, G. L., Lobell, D. B., Merchant, S. S. 2019; 70: 781–808

    View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817-040305

    View details for Web of Science ID 000482700100028

  • Mapping Missing Population in Rural India: A Deep Learning Approach with Satellite Imagery Hu, W., Patel, J., Robert, Z., Novosad, P., Asher, S., Tang, Z., Burke, M., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., Assoc Comp Machinery ASSOC COMPUTING MACHINERY. 2019: 353–59

    View details for DOI 10.1145/3306618.3314263

    View details for Web of Science ID 000556121100049

  • Tile2Vec: Unsupervised Representation Learning for Spatially Distributed Data Jean, N., Wang, S., Samar, A., Azzari, G., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., AAAI ASSOC ADVANCEMENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. 2019: 3967–74

    View details for Web of Science ID 000485292603121

  • Predicting Economic Development using Geolocated Wikipedia Articles Sheehan, E., Meng, C., Tan, M., Uzkent, B., Jean, N., Burke, M., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., Assoc Comp Machinery ASSOC COMPUTING MACHINERY. 2019: 2698–2706

    View details for DOI 10.1145/3292500.3330784

    View details for Web of Science ID 000485562502077

  • Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases. Science (New York, N.Y.) Duffy, P. B., Field, C. B., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Doney, S. C., Dutton, Z., Goodman, S., Heinzerling, L., Hsiang, S., Lobell, D. B., Mickley, L. J., Myers, S., Natali, S. M., Parmesan, C., Tierney, S., Williams, A. P. 2018

    Abstract

    We assess scientific evidence that has emerged since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 2009 Endangerment Finding for six well-mixed greenhouse gases, and find that this new evidence lends increased support to the conclusion that these gases pose a danger to public health and welfare. Newly available evidence about a wide range of observed and projected impacts strengthens the association between risk of some of these impacts and anthropogenic climate change; indicates that some impacts or combinations of impacts have the potential to be more severe than previously understood; and identifies substantial risk of additional impacts through processes and pathways not considered in the endangerment finding.

    View details for PubMedID 30545843

  • The important but weakening maize yield benefit of grain filling prolongation in the US Midwest GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY Zhu, P., Jin, Z., Zhuang, Q., Ciais, P., Bernacchi, C., Wang, X., Makowski, D., Lobell, D. 2018; 24 (10): 4718–30

    Abstract

    A better understanding of recent crop yield trends is necessary for improving the yield and maintaining food security. Several possible mechanisms have been investigated recently in order to explain the steady growth in maize yield over the US Corn-Belt, but a substantial fraction of the increasing trend remains elusive. In this study, trends in grain filling period (GFP) were identified and their relations with maize yield increase were further analyzed. Using satellite data from 2000 to 2015, an average lengthening of GFP of 0.37 days per year was found over the region, which probably results from variety renewal. Statistical analysis suggests that longer GFP accounted for roughly one-quarter (23%) of the yield increase trend by promoting kernel dry matter accumulation, yet had less yield benefit in hotter counties. Both official survey data and crop model simulations estimated a similar contribution of GFP trend to yield. If growing degree days that determines the GFP continues to prolong at the current rate for the next 50 years, yield reduction will be lessened with 25% and 18% longer GFP under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and RCP 6.0, respectively. However, this level of progress is insufficient to offset yield losses in future climates, because drought and heat stress during the GFP will become more prevalent and severe. This study highlights the need to devise multiple effective adaptation strategies to withstand the upcoming challenges in food security.

    View details for PubMedID 29901245

  • Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Ciscar, J., Fisher-Vanden, K., Lobell, D. B. 2018; 13 (7)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb

    View details for Web of Science ID 000436602200001

  • Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbondioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study PLOS MEDICINE Weyant, C., Brandeau, M. L., Burke, M., Lobell, D. B., Bendavid, E., Basu, S. 2018; 15 (7)

    View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002586

    View details for Web of Science ID 000440339700001

  • Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study. PLoS medicine Weyant, C., Brandeau, M. L., Burke, M., Lobell, D. B., Bendavid, E., Basu, S. 2018; 15 (7): e1002586

    Abstract

    BACKGROUND: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are anticipated to decrease the zinc and iron concentrations of crops. The associated disease burden and optimal mitigation strategies remain unknown. We sought to understand where and to what extent increasing carbon dioxide concentrations may increase the global burden of nutritional deficiencies through changes in crop nutrient concentrations, and the effects of potential mitigation strategies.METHODS AND FINDINGS: For each of 137 countries, we incorporated estimates of climate change, crop nutrient concentrations, dietary patterns, and disease risk into a microsimulation model of zinc and iron deficiency. These estimates were obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, US Department of Agriculture, Statistics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and Global Burden of Disease Project, respectively. In the absence of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, we estimated that zinc and iron deficiencies would induce 1,072.9 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally over the period 2015 to 2050 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 971.1-1,167.7). In the presence of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, we estimated that decreasing zinc and iron concentrations of crops would induce an additional 125.8 million DALYs globally over the same period (95% CrI: 113.6-138.9). This carbon-dioxide-induced disease burden is projected to disproportionately affect nations in the World Health Organization's South-East Asia and African Regions (44.0 and 28.5 million DALYs, respectively), which already have high existing disease burdens from zinc and iron deficiencies (364.3 and 299.5 million DALYs, respectively), increasing global nutritional inequalities. A climate mitigation strategy such as the Paris Agreement (an international agreement to keep global temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels) would be expected to avert 48.2% of this burden (95% CrI: 47.8%-48.5%), while traditional public health interventions including nutrient supplementation and disease control programs would be expected to avert 26.6% of the burden (95% CrI: 23.8%-29.6%). Of the traditional public health interventions, zinc supplementation would be expected to avert 5.5%, iron supplementation 15.7%, malaria mitigation 3.2%, pneumonia mitigation 1.6%, and diarrhea mitigation 0.5%. The primary limitations of the analysis include uncertainty regarding how food consumption patterns may change with climate, how disease mortality rates will change over time, and how crop zinc and iron concentrations will decline from those at present to those in 2050.CONCLUSIONS: Effects of increased carbon dioxide on crop nutrient concentrations are anticipated to exacerbate inequalities in zinc and iron deficiencies by 2050. Proposed Paris Agreement strategies are expected to be more effective than traditional public health measures to avert the increased inequality.

    View details for PubMedID 29969442

  • Satellite detection of cover crops and their effects on crop yield in the Midwestern United States ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Seifert, C. A., Azzari, G., Lobell, D. B. 2018; 13 (6)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4c8

    View details for Web of Science ID 000435213400001

  • Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Tebaldi, C., Lobell, D. 2018; 13 (6)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aaba48

    View details for Web of Science ID 000433138400001

  • Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops CLIMATIC CHANGE Tebaldi, C., Lobell, D. 2018; 146 (3-4): 533–45

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5

    View details for Web of Science ID 000425120000018

  • Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest. Global change biology Jin, Z., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D., Lobell, D. B. 2018; 24 (2): e522-e533

    Abstract

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2 ]) are expected to increase C3 crop yield through the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) by stimulating photosynthesis and by reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration. The latter effect is widely believed to lead to greater benefits in dry rather than wet conditions, although some recent experimental evidence challenges this view. Here we used a process-based crop model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), to quantify the contemporary and future CFE on soybean in one of its primary production area of the US Midwest. APSIM accurately reproduced experimental data from the Soybean Free-Air CO2 Enrichment site showing that the CFE declined with increasing drought stress. This resulted from greater radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground biomass production at elevated [CO2 ] that outpaced gains in transpiration efficiency (TE). Using an ensemble of eight climate model projections, we found that drought frequency in the US Midwest is projected to increase from once every 5 years currently to once every other year by 2050. In addition to directly driving yield loss, greater drought also significantly limited the benefit from rising [CO2 ]. This study provides a link between localized experiments and regional-scale modeling to highlight that increased drought frequency and severity pose a formidable challenge to maintaining soybean yield progress that is not offset by rising [CO2 ] as previously anticipated. Evaluating the relative sensitivity of RUE and TE to elevated [CO2 ] will be an important target for future modeling and experimental studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in C3 crops.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13946

    View details for PubMedID 29110424

  • Deep Transfer Learning for Crop Yield Prediction with Remote Sensing Data Wang, A. X., Tran, C., Desai, N., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., Assoc Comp Machinery ASSOC COMPUTING MACHINERY. 2018

    View details for DOI 10.1145/3209811.3212707

    View details for Web of Science ID 000455345900050

  • Infrastructure Quality Assessment in Africa using Satellite Imagery and Deep Learning Oshri, B., Hu, A., Adelson, P., Chen, X., Dupas, P., Weinstein, J., Burke, M., Lobell, D., Ermon, S., ACM ASSOC COMPUTING MACHINERY. 2018: 616–25

    View details for DOI 10.1145/3219819.3219924

    View details for Web of Science ID 000455346400065

  • Improving the accuracy of satellite-based high-resolution yield estimation: A test of multiple scalable approaches AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Jin, Z., Azzari, G., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 247: 207–20

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.08.001

    View details for Web of Science ID 000416186700019

  • Towards fine resolution global maps of crop yields: Testing multiple methods and satellites in three countries REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Azzari, G., Jain, M., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 202: 129–41

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2017.04.014

    View details for Web of Science ID 000418464000012

  • Historical effects of CO2 and climate trends on global crop water demand NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Urban, D. W., Sheffield, J., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 7 (12): 901-+

    View details for DOI 10.1038/s41558-017-0011-y

    View details for Web of Science ID 000417014700018

  • Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Roberts, M. J., Braun, N. O., Sinclair, T. R., Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W. 2017; 12 (9)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7f33

    View details for Web of Science ID 000411466500001

  • Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I. A., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Mueller, C., Peng, S., Penuelas, J., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Wang, T., Wu, D., Liu, Z., Zhu, Y., Zhu, Z., Asseng, S. 2017; 114 (35): 9326–31

    Abstract

    Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

    View details for PubMedID 28811375

  • Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY Asseng, S., Cammarano, D., Basso, B., Chung, U., Alderman, P. D., Sonder, K., Reynolds, M., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 23 (6): 2464-2472

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13530

    View details for Web of Science ID 000400445900028

  • Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures. Global change biology Asseng, S., Cammarano, D., Basso, B., Chung, U., Alderman, P. D., Sonder, K., Reynolds, M., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 23 (6): 2464-2472

    Abstract

    Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13530

    View details for PubMedID 27860004

  • Assessing the heterogeneity and persistence of farmers' maize yield performance across the North China Plain FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Zhao, Y., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 205: 55-66

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2016.12.023

    View details for Web of Science ID 000397688800006

  • Continuous Corn and Soybean Yield Penalties across Hundreds of Thousands of Fields AGRONOMY JOURNAL Seifert, C. A., Roberts, M. J., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 109 (2): 541-548

    View details for DOI 10.2134/agronj2016.03.0134

    View details for Web of Science ID 000397863300014

  • Satellite-based assessment of yield variation and its determinants in smallholder African systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Burke, M., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 114 (9): 2189-2194

    Abstract

    The emergence of satellite sensors that can routinely observe millions of individual smallholder farms raises possibilities for monitoring and understanding agricultural productivity in many regions of the world. Here we demonstrate the potential to track smallholder maize yield variation in western Kenya, using a combination of 1-m Terra Bella imagery and intensive field sampling on thousands of fields over 2 y. We find that agreement between satellite-based and traditional field survey-based yield estimates depends significantly on the quality of the field-based measures, with agreement highest ([Formula: see text] up to 0.4) when using precise field measures of plot area and when using larger fields for which rounding errors are smaller. We further show that satellite-based measures are able to detect positive yield responses to fertilizer and hybrid seed inputs and that the inferred responses are statistically indistinguishable from estimates based on survey-based yields. These results suggest that high-resolution satellite imagery can be used to make predictions of smallholder agricultural productivity that are roughly as accurate as the survey-based measures traditionally used in research and policy applications, and they indicate a substantial near-term potential to quickly generate useful datasets on productivity in smallholder systems, even with minimal or no field training data. Such datasets could rapidly accelerate learning about which interventions in smallholder systems have the most positive impact, thus enabling more rapid transformation of rural livelihoods.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1616919114

    View details for PubMedID 28202728

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC5338538

  • Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Guan, K., Sultan, B., Biasutti, M., Baron, C., Lobell, D. B. 2017; 232: 291-305

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.021

    View details for Web of Science ID 000389089800024

  • Satellite detection of rising maize yield heterogeneity in the US Midwest ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Azzari, G. 2017; 12 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5371

    View details for Web of Science ID 000394131100003

  • Monitoring Ethiopian Wheat Fungus with Satellite Imagery and Deep Feature Learning Pryzant, R., Ermon, S., Lobell, D., IEEE IEEE. 2017: 1524–32

    View details for DOI 10.1109/CVPRW.2017.196

    View details for Web of Science ID 000426448300189

  • Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest Global Change Biology Jin, Z., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D., Lobell, D. B. 2017: e522–e533

    Abstract

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2 ]) are expected to increase C3 crop yield through the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) by stimulating photosynthesis and by reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration. The latter effect is widely believed to lead to greater benefits in dry rather than wet conditions, although some recent experimental evidence challenges this view. Here we used a process-based crop model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), to quantify the contemporary and future CFE on soybean in one of its primary production area of the US Midwest. APSIM accurately reproduced experimental data from the Soybean Free-Air CO2 Enrichment site showing that the CFE declined with increasing drought stress. This resulted from greater radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground biomass production at elevated [CO2 ] that outpaced gains in transpiration efficiency (TE). Using an ensemble of eight climate model projections, we found that drought frequency in the US Midwest is projected to increase from once every 5 years currently to once every other year by 2050. In addition to directly driving yield loss, greater drought also significantly limited the benefit from rising [CO2 ]. This study provides a link between localized experiments and regional-scale modeling to highlight that increased drought frequency and severity pose a formidable challenge to maintaining soybean yield progress that is not offset by rising [CO2 ] as previously anticipated. Evaluating the relative sensitivity of RUE and TE to elevated [CO2 ] will be an important target for future modeling and experimental studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in C3 crops.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13946

  • Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Heft-Neal, S., Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. 2017; 12 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5463

    View details for Web of Science ID 000394131100002

  • Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Liu, B., Asseng, S., Muller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Jones, J., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P. D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rotter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stockle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J. W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y. 2016; 6 (12): 1130-?

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE3115

    View details for Web of Science ID 000389432200023

  • Yield trends under varying environmental conditions for sorghum and wheat across Australia AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Potgieter, A. B., Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., Jordan, D. R., Davis, P., Brider, J. 2016; 228: 276-285

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.004

    View details for Web of Science ID 000383295200023

  • Mapping Smallholder Wheat Yields and Sowing Dates Using Micro-Satellite Data REMOTE SENSING Jain, M., Srivastava, A. K., Balwinder-Singh, Joon, R. K., McDonald, A., Royal, K., Lisaius, M. C., Lobell, D. B. 2016; 8 (10)

    View details for DOI 10.3390/rs8100860

    View details for Web of Science ID 000387357300074

  • Combining satellite imagery and machine learning to predict poverty. Science Jean, N., Burke, M., Xie, M., Davis, W. M., Lobell, D. B., Ermon, S. 2016; 353 (6301): 790-794

    Abstract

    Reliable data on economic livelihoods remain scarce in the developing world, hampering efforts to study these outcomes and to design policies that improve them. Here we demonstrate an accurate, inexpensive, and scalable method for estimating consumption expenditure and asset wealth from high-resolution satellite imagery. Using survey and satellite data from five African countries--Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, and Rwanda--we show how a convolutional neural network can be trained to identify image features that can explain up to 75% of the variation in local-level economic outcomes. Our method, which requires only publicly available data, could transform efforts to track and target poverty in developing countries. It also demonstrates how powerful machine learning techniques can be applied in a setting with limited training data, suggesting broad potential application across many scientific domains.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aaf7894

    View details for PubMedID 27540167

  • An approach to understanding persistent yield variation-A case study in North China Plain EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY Zhao, Y., Chen, X., Lobell, D. B. 2016; 77: 10-19

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.eja.2016.03.006

    View details for Web of Science ID 000377738500002

  • Colocation opportunities for large solar infrastructures and agriculture in drylands APPLIED ENERGY Ravi, S., Macknick, J., Lobell, D., Field, C., Ganesan, K., Jain, R., Elchinger, M., Stoltenberg, B. 2016; 165: 383-392

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.12.078

    View details for Web of Science ID 000372676400031

  • Improving the monitoring of crop productivity using spaceborne solar-induced fluorescence. Global change biology Guan, K., Berry, J. A., Zhang, Y., Joiner, J., Guanter, L., Badgley, G., Lobell, D. B. 2016; 22 (2): 716-726

    Abstract

    Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13136

    View details for PubMedID 26490834

  • Contribution of persistent factors to yield gaps in high-yield irrigated maize FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Farmaha, B. S., Lobell, D. B., Boone, K. E., Cassman, K. G., Yang, H. S., Grassini, P. 2016; 186: 124-132

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.020

    View details for Web of Science ID 000369200100013

  • Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change. Scientific reports Meng, Q., Chen, X., Lobell, D. B., Cui, Z., Zhang, Y., Yang, H., Zhang, F. 2016; 6: 19605-?

    Abstract

    Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that modern, longer-maturing varieties have extended the growing period by an average of 8 days and have significantly offset the negative impacts of climate change on yield. However, the sensitivity of maize production to water has increased: maize yield across the CMB was 5% lower with rainfed than with irrigated maize in the 1980s and was 10% lower (and even >20% lower in some areas) in the 2000s because of both warming and the increased requirement for water by the longer-maturing varieties. Of the maize area in China, 40% now fails to receive the precipitation required to attain the full yield potential. Opportunities for water saving in maize systems exist, but water scarcity in China remains a serious problem.

    View details for DOI 10.1038/srep19605

    View details for PubMedID 26804136

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4726359

  • Using satellite remote sensing to understand maize yield gaps in the North China Plain FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Zhao, Y., Chen, X., Cui, Z., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 183: 31-42

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2015.07.004

    View details for Web of Science ID 000362133600004

  • The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in northeast Australia GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., Chenu, K., Zheng, B., Mclean, G., Chapman, S. C. 2015; 21 (11): 4115-4127

    Abstract

    Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here, we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation-use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than that for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13022

    View details for PubMedID 26152643

  • What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa? GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Guan, K., Sultan, B., Biasutti, M., Baron, C., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 42 (19): 8001-8010

    View details for DOI 10.1002/2015GL063877

    View details for Web of Science ID 000363695500019

  • A scalable satellite-based crop yield mapper REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Lobell, D. B., Thau, D., Seifert, C., Engle, E., Little, B. 2015; 164: 324-333

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2015.04.021

    View details for Web of Science ID 000356554600026

  • Reply to Gonsamo and Chen: Yield findings independent of cause of climate trends. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Moore, F. C., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 112 (18): E2267

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1504457112

    View details for PubMedID 25873739

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4426424

  • The effects of extremely wet planting conditions on maize and soybean yields CLIMATIC CHANGE Urban, D. W., Roberts, M. J., Schlenker, W., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 130 (2): 247-260

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1362-x

    View details for Web of Science ID 000353465100014

  • INCORPORATING CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY INTO ESTIMATES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS Burke, M., Dykema, J., Lobell, D. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S. 2015; 97 (2): 461-471

    View details for DOI 10.1162/REST_a_00478

    View details for Web of Science ID 000353506600016

  • The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Urban, D. W., Sheffield, J., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 10 (4)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045003

    View details for Web of Science ID 000353641400024

  • The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Moore, F. C., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 112 (9): 2670-2675

    Abstract

    Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these tests to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends since 1989 have reduced continent-wide wheat and barley yields by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively, and have slightly increased maize and sugar beet yields. These averages disguise large heterogeneity across the continent, with regions around the Mediterranean experiencing significant adverse impacts on most crops. This result means that climate trends can account for ∼ 10% of the stagnation in European wheat and barley yields, with likely explanations for the remainder including changes in agriculture and environmental policies.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1409606112

    View details for Web of Science ID 000350224900034

    View details for PubMedID 25691735

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4352830

  • Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Seifert, C. A., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 10 (2)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024002

    View details for Web of Science ID 000350573500004

  • Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Roetter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Prasad, P. V., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., BASSO, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vile, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler, A., Mueller, C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., PALOSUO, T., Priesack, E., Rezaei, E. E., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stoeckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wallach, D., Wolf, I., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y. 2015; 5 (2): 143-147

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2470

    View details for Web of Science ID 000350327700025

  • Historical climate trends, deforestation, and maize and bean yields in Nicaragua AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Gourdji, S., Laederach, P., Martinez Valle, A., Zelaya Martinez, C., Lobell, D. B. 2015; 200: 270-281

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.10.002

    View details for Web of Science ID 000347582300026

  • Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions ENERGY ECONOMICS Hertel, T. W., Lobell, D. B. 2014; 46: 562-575

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.014

    View details for Web of Science ID 000347579800051

  • Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Sultan, B., Guan, K., Kouressy, M., Biasutti, M., Piani, C., Hammer, G. L., McLean, G., Lobell, D. B. 2014; 9 (10)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104006

    View details for Web of Science ID 000344964000010

  • Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Tebaldi, C. 2014; 9 (7)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074003

    View details for Web of Science ID 000341873200004

  • Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Moore, F. C., Lobell, D. B. 2014; 4 (7): 610-614

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2228

    View details for Web of Science ID 000338837400028

  • Greater Sensitivity to Drought Accompanies Maize Yield Increase in the US Midwest SCIENCE Lobell, D. B., Roberts, M. J., Schlenker, W., Braun, N., Little, B. B., Rejesus, R. M., Hammer, G. L. 2014; 344 (6183): 516-519

    Abstract

    A key question for climate change adaptation is whether existing cropping systems can become less sensitive to climate variations. We use a field-level data set on maize and soybean yields in the central United States for 1995 through 2012 to examine changes in drought sensitivity. Although yields have increased in absolute value under all levels of stress for both crops, the sensitivity of maize yields to drought stress associated with high vapor pressure deficits has increased. The greater sensitivity has occurred despite cultivar improvements and increased carbon dioxide and reflects the agronomic trend toward higher sowing densities. The results suggest that agronomic changes tend to translate improved drought tolerance of plants to higher average yields but not to decreasing drought sensitivity of yields at the field scale.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1251423

    View details for PubMedID 24786079

  • A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R., Chhetri, N. 2014; 4 (4): 287-291

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2153

    View details for Web of Science ID 000333669600023

  • Tradeoffs and Synergies between Biofuel Production and Large Solar Infrastructure in Deserts. Environmental science & technology Ravi, S., Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2014; 48 (5): 3021-3030

    Abstract

    Solar energy installations in deserts are on the rise, fueled by technological advances and policy changes. Deserts, with a combination of high solar radiation and availability of large areas unusable for crop production are ideal locations for large solar installations. However, for efficient power generation, solar infrastructures use large amounts of water for construction and operation. We investigated the water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with solar installations in North American deserts in comparison to agave-based biofuel production, another widely promoted potential energy source from arid systems. We determined the uncertainty in our analysis by a Monte Carlo approach that varied the most important parameters, as determined by sensitivity analysis. We considered the uncertainty in our estimates as a result of variations in the number of solar modules ha(-1), module efficiency, number of agave plants ha(-1), and overall sugar conversion efficiency for agave. Further, we considered the uncertainty in revenue and returns as a result of variations in the wholesale price of electricity and installation cost of solar photovoltaic (PV), wholesale price of agave ethanol, and cost of agave cultivation and ethanol processing. The life-cycle analyses show that energy outputs and GHG offsets from solar PV systems, mean energy output of 2405 GJ ha(-1) year(-1) (5 and 95% quantile values of 1940-2920) and mean GHG offsets of 464 Mg of CO2 equiv ha(-1) year(-1) (375-562), are much larger than agave, mean energy output from 206 (171-243) to 61 (50-71) GJ ha(-1) year(-1) and mean GHG offsets from 18 (14-22) to 4.6 (3.7-5.5) Mg of CO2 equiv ha(-1) year(-1), depending upon the yield scenario of agave. Importantly though, water inputs for cleaning solar panels and dust suppression are similar to amounts required for annual agave growth, suggesting the possibility of integrating the two systems to maximize the efficiency of land and water use to produce both electricity and liquid fuel. A life-cycle analysis of a hypothetical colocation indicated higher returns per m(3) of water used than either system alone. Water requirements for energy production were 0.22 L MJ(-1) (0.28-0.19) and 0.42 L MJ(-1) (0.52-0.35) for solar PV-agave (baseline yield) and solar PV-agave (high yield), respectively. Even though colocation may not be practical in all locations, in some water-limited areas, colocated solar PV-agave systems may provide attractive economic incentives in addition to efficient land and water use.

    View details for DOI 10.1021/es404950n

    View details for PubMedID 24467248

  • Climate change adaptation in crop production: Beware of illusions Global Food Security Lobell, D. B. 2014; 3 (2): 72-76

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.gfs.2014.05.002

  • Testing Remote Sensing Approaches for Assessing Yield Variability among Maize Fields AGRONOMY JOURNAL Sibley, A. M., Grassini, P., Thomas, N. E., Cassman, K. G., Lobell, D. B. 2014; 106 (1): 24-32

    View details for DOI 10.2134/agronj2013.0314

    View details for Web of Science ID 000330460200004

  • 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104006 Environmental Research Letters Sultan, B., Guan, K., Kouressy, M., Biasutti, M., Piani, C., Hammer, G., McLean, G., Lobell, D. 2014; 9 (10)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104006

  • The benefits of recent warming for maize production in high latitude China CLIMATIC CHANGE Meng, Q., Hou, P., Lobell, D. B., Wang, H., Cui, Z., Zhang, F., Chen, X. 2014; 122 (1-2): 341-349

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-1009-8

    View details for Web of Science ID 000328622900027

  • The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems CLIMATIC CHANGE Stone, D., Auffhammer, M., Carey, M., Hansen, G., Huggel, C., Cramer, W., Lobell, D., Molau, U., Solow, A., Tibig, L., Yohe, G. 2013; 121 (2): 381-395

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6

    View details for Web of Science ID 000326944000020

  • Seasonal energy storage using bioenergy production from abandoned croplands ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Campbell, J. E., Lobell, D. B., Genova, R. C., Zumkehr, A., Field, C. B. 2013; 8 (3)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035012

    View details for Web of Science ID 000325247100057

  • The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., Mclean, G., Messina, C., Roberts, M. J., Schlenker, W. 2013; 3 (5): 497-501

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1832

    View details for Web of Science ID 000319402000017

  • Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Gourdji, S. M., Sibley, A. M., Lobell, D. B. 2013; 8 (2)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041

    View details for Web of Science ID 000321425100045

  • Simulated hydroclimatic impacts of projected Brazilian sugarcane expansion GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Georgescu, M., Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B., Mahalov, A. 2013; 40 (5): 972-977

    View details for DOI 10.1002/grl.50206

    View details for Web of Science ID 000318242900032

  • Errors in climate datasets and their effects on statistical crop models AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Lobell, D. B. 2013; 170: 58-66

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.05.013

    View details for Web of Science ID 000315546700007

  • The use of satellite data for crop yield gap analysis FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Lobell, D. B. 2013; 143: 56-64

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2012.08.008

    View details for Web of Science ID 000317538800006

  • Reduction of transpiration and altered nutrient allocation contribute to nutrient decline of crops grown in elevated CO2 concentrations PLANT CELL AND ENVIRONMENT McGrath, J. M., Lobell, D. B. 2013; 36 (3): 697-705

    Abstract

    Plants grown in elevated [CO(2) ] have lower protein and mineral concentrations compared with plants grown in ambient [CO(2) ]. Dilution by enhanced production of carbohydrates is a likely cause, but it cannot explain all of the reductions. Two proposed, but untested, hypotheses are that (1) reduced canopy transpiration reduces mass flow of nutrients to the roots thus reducing nutrient uptake and (2) changes in metabolite or enzyme concentrations caused by physiological changes alter requirements for minerals as protein cofactors or in other organic complexes, shifting allocation between tissues and possibly altering uptake. Here, we use the meta-analysis of previous studies in crops to test these hypotheses. Nutrients acquired mostly by mass flow were decreased significantly more by elevated [CO(2) ] than nutrients acquired by diffusion to the roots through the soil, supporting the first hypothesis. Similarly, Mg showed large concentration declines in leaves and wheat stems, but smaller decreases in other tissues. Because chlorophyll requires a large fraction of total plant Mg, and chlorophyll concentration is reduced by growth in elevated [CO(2) ], this supports the second hypothesis. Understanding these mechanisms may guide efforts to improve nutrient content, and allow modeling of nutrient changes and health impacts under future climate change scenarios.

    View details for DOI 10.1111/pce.12007

    View details for Web of Science ID 000314187300016

    View details for PubMedID 22943419

  • An assessment of wheat yield sensitivity and breeding gains in hot environments PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES Gourdji, S. M., Mathews, K. L., Reynolds, M., Crossa, J., Lobell, D. B. 2013; 280 (1752)

    Abstract

    Genetic improvements in heat tolerance of wheat provide a potential adaptation response to long-term warming trends, and may also boost yields in wheat-growing areas already subject to heat stress. Yet there have been few assessments of recent progress in breeding wheat for hot environments. Here, data from 25 years of wheat trials in 76 countries from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) are used to empirically model the response of wheat to environmental variation and assess the genetic gains over time in different environments and for different breeding strategies. Wheat yields exhibited the most sensitivity to warming during the grain-filling stage, typically the hottest part of the season. Sites with high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) exhibited a less negative response to temperatures during this period, probably associated with increased transpirational cooling. Genetic improvements were assessed by using the empirical model to correct observed yield growth for changes in environmental conditions and management over time. These 'climate-corrected' yield trends showed that most of the genetic gains in the high-yield-potential Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial (ESWYT) were made at cooler temperatures, close to the physiological optimum, with no evidence for genetic gains at the hottest temperatures. In contrast, the Semi-Arid Wheat Yield Trial (SAWYT), a lower-yielding nursery targeted at maintaining yields under stressed conditions, showed the strongest genetic gains at the hottest temperatures. These results imply that targeted breeding efforts help us to ensure progress in building heat tolerance, and that intensified (and possibly new) approaches are needed to improve the yield potential of wheat in hot environments in order to maintain global food security in a warmer climate.

    View details for DOI 10.1098/rspb.2012.2190

    View details for Web of Science ID 000312591600001

    View details for PubMedID 23222442

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3574297

  • Satellite detection of earlier wheat sowing in India and implications for yield trends AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Lobell, D. B., Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J., Sibley, A. M., Sohu, V. S. 2013; 115: 137-143

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agsy.2012.09.003

    View details for Web of Science ID 000314432300014

  • Regional disparities in the CO2 fertilization effect and implications for crop yields ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS McGrath, J. M., Lobell, D. B. 2013; 8 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014054

    View details for Web of Science ID 000316998300062

  • An assessment of wheat breeding gains in hot environments Proceedings of the Royal Society Proc. B Biological Sciences Gourji, S., Mathews, K., Reynolds, N., Cross , J., Lobell , D. B. 2013; 280: 20122190

    View details for DOI 10.1098/rspb.2012.2190

  • Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Baldos, U. L., Hertel, T. W. 2013; 8 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015012

    View details for Web of Science ID 000316998300075

  • The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity PLANT PHYSIOLOGY Lobell, D. B., Gourdji, S. M. 2012; 160 (4): 1686-1697

    View details for DOI 10.1104/pp.112.208298

    View details for Web of Science ID 000311998200003

    View details for PubMedID 23054565

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3510102

  • Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields CLIMATIC CHANGE Urban, D., Roberts, M. J., Schlenker, W., Lobell, D. B. 2012; 112 (2): 525-533

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0428-2

    View details for Web of Science ID 000302327700020

  • The case of the missing wheat ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B. 2012; 7 (2)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/021002

    View details for Web of Science ID 000307590300002

  • Evaluating the Contribution of Weather to Maize and Wheat Yield Trends in 12 US Counties AGRONOMY JOURNAL Maltais-Landry, G., Lobell, D. B. 2012; 104 (2): 301-311

    View details for DOI 10.2134/agronj2011.0220

    View details for Web of Science ID 000301961400010

  • Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Lobell, D. B., Sibley, A., Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J. 2012; 2 (3): 186-189

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1356

    View details for Web of Science ID 000301632200020

  • Crop yields in a geoengineered climate NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Pongratz, J., Lobell, D. B., Cao, L., Caldeira, K. 2012; 2 (2): 101-105

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1373

    View details for Web of Science ID 000300520100021

  • Effect of vineyard-scale climate variability on Pinot noir phenolic composition AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Nicholas, K. A., Matthews, M. A., Lobell, D. B., Willits, N. H., Field, C. B. 2011; 151 (12): 1556-1567

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.010

    View details for Web of Science ID 000297277200007

  • Climate extremes in California agriculture CLIMATIC CHANGE Lobell, D. B., Torney, A., Field, C. B. 2011; 109: 355-363

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0304-5

    View details for Web of Science ID 000298757300018

  • California perennial crops in a changing climate CLIMATIC CHANGE Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2011; 109: 317-333

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0303-6

    View details for Web of Science ID 000298757300016

  • COMMENTARY: A walk on the wild side NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Guarino, L., Lobell, D. B. 2011; 1 (8): 374-375

    View details for Web of Science ID 000297111400003

  • An independent method of deriving the carbon dioxide fertilization effect in dry conditions using historical yield data from wet and dry years GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY McGrath, J. M., Lobell, D. B. 2011; 17 (8): 2689-2696

    View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02406.x

    View details for Web of Science ID 000292308300014

  • Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 SCIENCE Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., Costa-Roberts, J. 2011; 333 (6042): 616-620

    Abstract

    Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1204531

    View details for Web of Science ID 000293222400058

    View details for PubMedID 21551030

  • Direct impacts on local climate of sugar-cane expansion in Brazil NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Loarie, S. R., Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P., Mu, Q., Field, C. B. 2011; 1 (2): 105-109

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1067

    View details for Web of Science ID 000293718200028

  • Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Rowhani, P., Lobell, D. B., Linderman, M., Ramankutty, N. 2011; 151 (4): 449-460

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.12.002

    View details for Web of Science ID 000287893600003

  • Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Lobell, D. B., Baenziger, M., Magorokosho, C., Vivek, B. 2011; 1 (1): 42-45

    View details for DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1043

    View details for Web of Science ID 000293718100021

  • Direct climate effects of perennial bioenergy crops in the United States PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Georgescu, M., Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2011; 108 (11): 4307-4312

    Abstract

    Biomass-derived energy offers the potential to increase energy security while mitigating anthropogenic climate change, but a successful path toward increased production requires a thorough accounting of costs and benefits. Until recently, the efficacy of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on biogeochemical consequences. Here we show that the biogeophysical effects that result from hypothetical conversion of annual to perennial bioenergy crops across the central United States impart a significant local to regional cooling with considerable implications for the reservoir of stored soil water. This cooling effect is related mainly to local increases in transpiration, but also to higher albedo. The reduction in radiative forcing from albedo alone is equivalent to a carbon emissions reduction of , which is six times larger than the annual biogeochemical effects that arise from offsetting fossil fuel use. Thus, in the near-term, the biogeophysical effects are an important aspect of climate impacts of biofuels, even at the global scale. Locally, the simulated cooling is sufficiently large to partially offset projected warming due to increasing greenhouse gases over the next few decades. These results demonstrate that a thorough evaluation of costs and benefits of bioenergy-related land-use change must include potential impacts on the surface energy and water balance to comprehensively address important concerns for local, regional, and global climate change.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1008779108

    View details for Web of Science ID 000288450900015

    View details for PubMedID 21368189

  • Satellite-Based Detection of Salinity and Sodicity Impacts on Wheat Production in the Mexicali Valley SOIL SCIENCE SOCIETY OF AMERICA JOURNAL Seifert, C., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Lobell, D. B. 2011; 75 (2): 699-707

    View details for DOI 10.2136/sssaj2010.0233

    View details for Web of Science ID 000288827000038

  • Land-Cover and Surface Water Change Drive Large Albedo Increases in South America EARTH INTERACTIONS Loarie, S. R., Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P., Field, C. B. 2011; 15

    View details for DOI 10.1175/2010EI342.1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000291146600001

  • Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS Ahmed, S. A., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Hertel, T. W., Lobell, D. B., Ramankutty, N., Rios, A. R., Rowhani, P. 2011; 21 (1): 46-55

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.10.003

    View details for Web of Science ID 000293811200007

  • An independent method for deriving the carbon fertilization effect using historical yield data from wet and dry years Global Change Biology McGrath, J. M., Lobell, D. B. 2011

    View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02406.x

  • Agriculture Research and Management at the Field Scale Seeds of Sustainability: Lessons from the Birthplace of the Green Revolution in Agriculture Ortiz-Manesterio, I., Lobell, D. B. edited by Matson, P. A. Island Press. 2011: 139–170
  • On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B. 2010; 150 (11): 1443-1452

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.07.008

    View details for Web of Science ID 000283022900006

  • The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS Hertel, T. W., Burke, M. B., Lobell, D. B. 2010; 20 (4): 577-585

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.001

    View details for Web of Science ID 000284436800006

  • Satellite evidence for yield growth opportunities in Northwest India FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Lobell, D. B., Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J., Lee, A. S. 2010; 118 (1): 13-20

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2010.03.013

    View details for Web of Science ID 000279096000002

  • Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Burney, J. A., Davis, S. J., Lobell, D. B. 2010; 107 (26): 12052-12057

    Abstract

    As efforts to mitigate climate change increase, there is a need to identify cost-effective ways to avoid emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Agriculture is rightly recognized as a source of considerable emissions, with concomitant opportunities for mitigation. Although future agricultural productivity is critical, as it will shape emissions from conversion of native landscapes to food and biofuel crops, investment in agricultural research is rarely mentioned as a mitigation strategy. Here we estimate the net effect on GHG emissions of historical agricultural intensification between 1961 and 2005. We find that while emissions from factors such as fertilizer production and application have increased, the net effect of higher yields has avoided emissions of up to 161 gigatons of carbon (GtC) (590 GtCO(2)e) since 1961. We estimate that each dollar invested in agricultural yields has resulted in 68 fewer kgC (249 kgCO(2)e) emissions relative to 1961 technology ($14.74/tC, or approximately $4/tCO(2)e), avoiding 3.6 GtC (13.1 GtCO(2)e) per year. Our analysis indicates that investment in yield improvements compares favorably with other commonly proposed mitigation strategies. Further yield improvements should therefore be prominent among efforts to reduce future GHG emissions.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0914216107

    View details for Web of Science ID 000279332300071

    View details for PubMedID 20551223

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC2900707

  • Radically Rethinking Agriculture for the 21st Century SCIENCE Fedoroff, N. V., Battisti, D. S., Beachy, R. N., Cooper, P. J., FISCHHOFF, D. A., Hodges, C. N., Knauf, V. C., Lobell, D., Mazur, B. J., Molden, D., Reynolds, M. P., Ronald, P. C., Rosegrant, M. W., Sanchez, P. A., Vonshak, A., Zhu, J. 2010; 327 (5967): 833-834

    Abstract

    Population growth, arable land and fresh water limits, and climate change have profound implications for the ability of agriculture to meet this century's demands for food, feed, fiber, and fuel while reducing the environmental impact of their production. Success depends on the acceptance and use of contemporary molecular techniques, as well as the increasing development of farming systems that use saline water and integrate nutrient flows.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1186834

    View details for Web of Science ID 000274408300051

    View details for PubMedID 20150494

  • Narrowing the agronomic yield gap with improved nitrogen use efficiency: a modeling approach ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS Ahrens, T. D., Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Li, Y., Matson, P. A. 2010; 20 (1): 91-100

    Abstract

    Improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in the major cereals is critical for more sustainable nitrogen use in high-input agriculture, but our understanding of the potential for NUE improvement is limited by a paucity of reliable on-farm measurements. Limited on-farm data suggest that agronomic NUE (AE(N)) is lower and more variable than data from trials conducted at research stations, on which much of our understanding of AE(N) has been built. The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude and causes of variability in AE(N) across an agricultural region, which we refer to as the achievement distribution of AE(N). The distribution of simulated AE(N) in 80 farmers' fields in an irrigated wheat system in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico, was compared with trials at a local research center (International Wheat and Maize Improvement Center; CIMMYT). An agroecosystem simulation model WNMM was used to understand factors controlling yield, AE(N), gaseous N emissions, and nitrate leaching in the region. Simulated AE(N) in the Yaqui Valley was highly variable, and mean on-farm AE(N) was 44% lower than trials with similar fertilization rates at CIMMYT. Variability in residual N supply was the most important factor determining simulated AE(N). Better split applications of N fertilizer led to almost a doubling of AE(N), increased profit, and reduced N pollution, and even larger improvements were possible with technologies that allow for direct measurement of soil N supply and plant N demand, such as site-specific nitrogen management.

    View details for Web of Science ID 000275358100007

    View details for PubMedID 20349832

  • Climate change impacts on food security and nutrition United Nations' SCN News Ebi, K. L., Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2010; 38: 11-17
  • Climate Change and Food Security: Adapting Agriculture to a Warmer World Advances in Global Change Research edited by Lobell, D., Burke, M. Springer. 2010; 37
  • Remote Sensing of Soil Degradation: Introduction JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Lobell, D. B. 2010; 39 (1): 1-4

    Abstract

    In the 21st century, mapping and monitoring the occurrence of soil degradation will be an important component of successful land management. Remote sensing, with its unique ability to measure across space and time, will be an increasingly indispensible tool for assessing degradation. However, much of the recent experience and progress in using remote sensing and other geospatial technologies to map soil degradation is reported outside of the peer-reviewed literature. This motivated the organization of a special collection of papers focused on remote sensing of soil degradation, to highlight recent successes, common challenges, and promising new approaches. This introductory paper provides an overview of the papers, gaps in knowledge, and future research directions. Across several regions and types of degradation, many assessments to date have relied heavily on data from the Landsat satellite sensor. Many approaches have also relied at some point on subjective visual interpretation, either of the satellite imagery itself or to provide field data used to train models that use satellite data. While subjectivity is not necessarily bad, it precludes repeatability and makes it even more important to rigorously test model estimates with independent data. Overall, it remains quite challenging to find robust relationships between remote sensing measures and soil degradation, particularly for slight to moderate levels of degradation. There have nonetheless been some clear successes, and there remains great potential for progress. Promising directions outlined in the papers include using multi-year measures of vegetation condition, combining different sensor systems including optical and radar data, and using advanced statistical techniques such as Bayesian networks and decision trees.

    View details for DOI 10.2134/jeq2009.0326

    View details for Web of Science ID 000273579300001

    View details for PubMedID 20048288

  • Regional-scale Assessment of Soil Salinity in the Red River Valley Using Multi-year MODIS EVI and NDVI JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Lobell, D. B., Lesch, S. M., Corwin, D. L., Ulmer, M. G., Anderson, K. A., Potts, D. J., Doolittle, J. A., Matos, M. R., Baltes, M. J. 2010; 39 (1): 35-41

    Abstract

    The ability to inventory and map soil salinity at regional scales remains a significant challenge to scientists concerned with the salinization of agricultural soils throughout the world. Previous attempts to use satellite or aerial imagery to assess soil salinity have found limited success in part because of the inability of methods to isolate the effects of soil salinity on vegetative growth from other factors. This study evaluated the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery in conjunction with directed soil sampling to assess and map soil salinity at a regional scale (i.e., 10-10(5) km(2)) in a parsimonious manner. Correlations with three soil salinity ground truth datasets differing in scale were made in Kittson County within the Red River Valley (RRV) of North Dakota and Minnesota, an area where soil salinity assessment is a top priority for the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS). Multi-year MODIS imagery was used to mitigate the influence of temporally dynamic factors such as weather, pests, disease, and management influences. The average of the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) for a 7-yr period exhibited a strong relationship with soil salinity in all three datasets, and outperformed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). One-third to one-half of the spatial variability in soil salinity could be captured by measuring average MODIS EVI and whether the land qualified for the Conservation Reserve Program (a USDA program that sets aside marginally productive land based on conservation principles). The approach has the practical simplicity to allow broad application in areas where limited resources are available for salinity assessment.

    View details for DOI 10.2134/jeq2009.0140

    View details for Web of Science ID 000273579300005

    View details for PubMedID 20048292

  • Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Schlenker, W., Lobell, D. B. 2010; 5 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010

    View details for Web of Science ID 000276097900011

  • Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., Lobell, D. B. 2009; 106 (49): 20670-20674

    Abstract

    Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0907998106

    View details for Web of Science ID 000272553000024

    View details for PubMedID 19934048

    View details for PubMedCentralID PMC2781059

  • Potential impact of US biofuels on regional climate GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Georgescu, M., Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2009; 36

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2009GL040477

    View details for Web of Science ID 000271847900001

  • Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS Burke, M. B., Lobell, D. B., Guarino, L. 2009; 19 (3): 317-325

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

    View details for Web of Science ID 000269103900001

  • Greater Transportation Energy and GHG Offsets from Bioelectricity Than Ethanol SCIENCE Campbell, J. E., Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2009; 324 (5930): 1055-1057

    Abstract

    The quantity of land available to grow biofuel crops without affecting food prices or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land conversion is limited. Therefore, bioenergy should maximize land-use efficiency when addressing transportation and climate change goals. Biomass could power either internal combustion or electric vehicles, but the relative land-use efficiency of these two energy pathways is not well quantified. Here, we show that bioelectricity outperforms ethanol across a range of feedstocks, conversion technologies, and vehicle classes. Bioelectricity produces an average of 81% more transportation kilometers and 108% more emissions offsets per unit area of cropland than does cellulosic ethanol. These results suggest that alternative bioenergy pathways have large differences in how efficiently they use the available land to achieve transportation and climate goals.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1168885

    View details for Web of Science ID 000266246700037

    View details for PubMedID 19423776

  • Regional Differences in the Influence of Irrigation on Climate JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Lobell, D., Bala, G., Mirin, A., Phillips, T., Maxwell, R., Rotman, D. 2009; 22 (8): 2248-2255

    View details for DOI 10.1175/2008JCLI2703.1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000266002800022

  • Crop Yield Gaps: Their Importance, Magnitudes, and Causes ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES Lobell, D. B., Cassman, K. G., Field, C. B. 2009; 34: 179-204

    View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev.environ.041008.093740

    View details for Web of Science ID 000272082000009

  • The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Campbell, J. E., Lobell, D. B., Genova, R. C., Field, C. B. 2008; 42 (15): 5791-5794

    Abstract

    Converting forest lands into bioenergy agriculture could accelerate climate change by emitting carbon stored in forests, while converting food agriculture lands into bioenergy agriculture could threaten food security. Both problems are potentially avoided by using abandoned agriculture lands for bioenergy agriculture. Here we show the global potential for bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands to be less than 8% of current primary energy demand, based on historical land use data, satellite-derived land cover data, and global ecosystem modeling. The estimated global area of abandoned agriculture is 385-472 million hectares, or 66-110% of the areas reported in previous preliminary assessments. The area-weighted mean production of above-ground biomass is 4.3 tons ha(-1) y(-1), in contrast to estimates of up to 10 tons ha(-1) y(-1) in previous assessments. The energy content of potential biomass grown on 100% of abandoned agriculture lands is less than 10% of primary energy demand for most nations in North America, Europe, and Asia, but it represents many times the energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current energy demand is low.

    View details for DOI 10.1021/es800052w

    View details for Web of Science ID 000258075100065

    View details for PubMedID 18754510

  • Satellite monitoring of yield responses to irrigation practices across thousands of fields AGRONOMY JOURNAL Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I. 2008; 100 (4): 1005-1012

    View details for DOI 10.2134/agronj2007.0278

    View details for Web of Science ID 000257734100015

  • Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B. 2008; 3 (3)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034007

    View details for Web of Science ID 000259569300007

  • The effect of irrigation on regional temperatures: A spatial and temporal analysis of trends in California, 1934-2002 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Lobell, D. B., Bonfils, C. 2008; 21 (10): 2063-2071

    View details for DOI 10.1175/2007JCLI1755.1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000256261700005

  • Irrigation cooling effect on temperature and heat index extremes GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Bonfils, C. J., Kueppers, L. M., Snyder, M. A. 2008; 35 (9)

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2008GL034145

    View details for Web of Science ID 000255824900004

  • Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Tebaldi, C., Lobell, D. B. 2008; 35 (8)

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2008GL033423

    View details for Web of Science ID 000255201800005

  • Identification of external influences on temperatures in California CLIMATIC CHANGE Bonfils, C., Duffy, P. B., Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M., Lobell, D. B., Phillips, T. J., Doutriaux, C. 2008; 87: S43-S55

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9374-9

    View details for Web of Science ID 000254987600004

  • Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030 SCIENCE Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Mastrandrea, M. D., Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. 2008; 319 (5863): 607-610

    Abstract

    Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

    View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1152339

    View details for Web of Science ID 000252772000037

    View details for PubMedID 18239122

  • Biomass energy: the scale of the potential resource TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION Field, C. B., Campbell, J. E., Lobell, D. B. 2008; 23 (2): 65-72

    Abstract

    Increased production of biomass for energy has the potential to offset substantial use of fossil fuels, but it also has the potential to threaten conservation areas, pollute water resources and decrease food security. The net effect of biomass energy agriculture on climate could be either cooling or warming, depending on the crop, the technology for converting biomass into useable energy, and the difference in carbon stocks and reflectance of solar radiation between the biomass crop and the pre-existing vegetation. The area with the greatest potential for yielding biomass energy that reduces net warming and avoids competition with food production is land that was previously used for agriculture or pasture but that has been abandoned and not converted to forest or urban areas. At the global scale, potential above-ground plant growth on these abandoned lands has an energy content representing approximately 5% of world primary energy consumption in 2006. The global potential for biomass energy production is large in absolute terms, but it is not enough to replace more than a few percent of current fossil fuel usage. Increasing biomass energy production beyond this level would probably reduce food security and exacerbate forcing of climate change.

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.tree.2007.12.001

    View details for Web of Science ID 000253620000004

    View details for PubMedID 18215439

  • The role of irrigation expansion in past and future temperature trends EARTH INTERACTIONS Lobell, D. B., Bonfils, C., Faures, J. 2008; 12: 1-11

    View details for DOI 10.1175/2007EI241.1

    View details for Web of Science ID 000256639700001

  • Identification of external influences on temperatures in California Nature Clim. Change Bonfils, C., Duffy, P., Santer, B., Wigley, T., Lobell, D., Phillips, T., Doutriaux, C. 2008; 10

    View details for DOI 1007/s10584-007-9374-9

  • Managing Global Climate Change An Executive Interview with David Lobell INTERNATIONAL FOOD AND AGRIBUSINESS MANAGEMENT REVIEW Jose, H. D., Lobell, D. 2008; 11 (3): 188-191

    View details for Web of Science ID 000208145800009

  • Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961 GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2008; 14 (1): 39-45

    View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01476.x

    View details for Web of Science ID 000251415000004

  • Empirical evidence for a recent slowdown in irrigation-induced cooling PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Bonfils, C., Lobell, D. 2007; 104 (34): 13582-13587

    Abstract

    Understanding the influence of past land use changes on climate is needed to improve regional projections of future climate change and inform debates about the tradeoffs associated with land use decisions. The effects of rapid expansion of irrigated area in the 20th century has remained unclear relative to other land use changes, such as urbanization, that affected a similar total land area. Using spatial and temporal variations in temperature and irrigation extent observed in California, we show that irrigation expansion has had a large cooling effect on summertime average daily daytime temperatures (-0.14 degrees C to -0.25 degrees C per decade), which corresponds to an estimated cooling of -1.8 degrees C to -3.2 degrees C since the introduction of irrigation practices. Irrigation has negligible effects on nighttime temperatures, leading to a net cooling effect of irrigation on climate (-0.06 degrees C to -0.19 degrees C per decade). Stabilization of irrigated area has occurred in California since 1980 and is expected in the near future for many irrigated regions. The suppression of past human-induced greenhouse warming by increased irrigation is therefore likely to slow in the future, and a potential decrease in irrigation may even contribute to a more rapid warming. Changes in irrigation alone are not expected to influence broad-scale temperatures, but they may introduce large uncertainties in climate projections for irrigated agricultural regions, which provide approximately 40% of global food production.

    View details for Web of Science ID 000249064700012

    View details for PubMedID 17698963

  • Identification of saline soils with multiyear remote sensing of crop yields SOIL SCIENCE SOCIETY OF AMERICA JOURNAL Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Gurrola, F. C., Valenzuela, L. 2007; 71 (3): 777-783

    View details for DOI 10.2136/sssaj2006.0306

    View details for Web of Science ID 000246602500017

  • Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Bala, G., Caldeira, K., Wickett, M., Phillips, T. J., Lobell, D. B., Delire, C., Mirin, A. 2007; 104 (16): 6550-6555

    Abstract

    The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO(2) to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

    View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0608998104

    View details for Web of Science ID 000245869200013

    View details for PubMedID 17420463

  • Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: A model inter-comparison GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Bonfils, C., Duffy, P. B. 2007; 34 (5)

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2006GL028726

    View details for Web of Science ID 000245016100002

  • Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields CLIMATIC CHANGE Lobell, D. B., Cahill, K. N., Field, C. B. 2007; 81 (2): 187-203

    View details for DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9141-3

    View details for Web of Science ID 000244685100003

  • Impacts of day versus night temperatures on spring wheat yields: A comparison of empirical and CERES model predictions in three locations AGRONOMY JOURNAL Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I. 2007; 99 (2): 469-477

    View details for DOI 10.2134/agronj2006.0209

    View details for Web of Science ID 000245290000018

  • Remote sensing assessment of regional yield losses due to sub-optimal planting dates and fallow period weed management FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Lobell, D. B. 2007; 101 (1): 80-87

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2006.09.012

    View details for Web of Science ID 000243762000011

  • Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES Field, C. B., Lobell, D. B., Peters, H. A., Chiariello, N. R. 2007; 32: 1-29

    View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev.energy.32.053006.141119

    View details for Web of Science ID 000251280300002

  • Comments on "Methodology and Results of Calculating Central California Surface Temperature Trends: Evidence of Human-Induced Climate Change?" J. Climate Bonfils, C., Duffy, P., Lobell, D. 2007; 20: 4486-4489
  • Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Lobell, D. B. 2007; 145: 229-238
  • Identification of Saline Soils with Multiyear Remote Sensing of Crop Yields Soil Science Society of America Journal Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Gurrola, F. C., Valenzuela, L. 2007; 71: 777-783
  • The cost of uncertainty for nitrogen fertilizer management: A sensitivity analysis Field Crops Research Lobell, D. B. 2007; 100: 210-217
  • Yield uncertainty at the field scale evaluated with multi-year satellite data AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Falcon, W. P. 2007; 92 (1-3): 76-90

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agsy.2006.02.010

    View details for Web of Science ID 000243179200006

  • Global scale climate - crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B. 2007; 2 (1)

    View details for DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002

    View details for Web of Science ID 000253652700004

  • Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: Model projections with climate and crop uncertainties AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Lobell, D. B., Field, C. B., Cahill, K. N., Bonfils, C. 2006; 141 (2-4): 208-218

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.10.006

    View details for Web of Science ID 000243669500010

  • Evaluating strategies for improved water use in spring wheat with CERES AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I. 2006; 84 (3): 249-258

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agwat.2006.02.007

    View details for Web of Science ID 000239674700005

  • Potential bias of model projected greenhouse warming in irrigated regions GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Bala, G., Bonfils, C., Duffy, P. B. 2006; 33 (13)

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2006GL026770

    View details for Web of Science ID 000239215600008

  • Regional importance of crop yield constraints: Linking simulation models and geostatistics to interpret spatial patterns ECOLOGICAL MODELLING Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I. 2006; 196 (1-2): 173-182

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.11.030

    View details for Web of Science ID 000238638900012

  • Biogeophysical impacts of cropland management changes on climate GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Lobell, D. B., Bala, G., Duffy, P. B. 2006; 33 (6)

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2005GL025492

    View details for Web of Science ID 000236344900008

  • Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2005; 94 (2-3): 250-256

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007

    View details for Web of Science ID 000232196400012

  • Combining field surveys, remote sensing, and regression trees to understand yield variations in an irrigated wheat landscape AGRONOMY JOURNAL Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2005; 97 (1): 241-249

    View details for Web of Science ID 000226783300033

  • Cropland distributions from temporal unmixing of MODIS data REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P. 2004; 93 (3): 412-422

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.rse.2004.08.002

    View details for Web of Science ID 000224648700011

  • Spatiotemporal patterns of cropland area and net primary production in the central United States estimated from USDA agricultural information GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Hicke, J. A., Lobell, D. B. 2004; 31 (20)

    View details for DOI 10.1029/2004GL020927

    View details for Web of Science ID 000224876000003

  • Relative importance of soil and climate variability for nitrogen management in irrigated wheat FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P. 2004; 87 (2-3): 155-165

    View details for DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2003.10.004

    View details for Web of Science ID 000220837900004

  • Cropland Area and Net Primary Production Computed from 30 Years of USDA Agricultural Harvest Data EARTH INTERACTIONS Hicke, J. A., Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P. 2004; 8

    View details for Web of Science ID 000207066500010

  • A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS Luers, A. L., Lobell, D. B., Sklar, L. S., Addams, C. L., Matson, P. A. 2003; 13 (4): 255-267

    View details for DOI 10.1016/S0959-3780(03)00054-2

    View details for Web of Science ID 000187033500003

  • Response to comment on "Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields" SCIENCE Lobell, D., Asner, G. 2003; 300 (5625)

    View details for Web of Science ID 000183333100025

  • Comparison of Earth Observing-1 ALI and Landsat ETM+ for crop identification and yield prediction in Mexico IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P. 2003; 41 (6): 1277-1282

    View details for DOI 10.1109/TGRS.2003.812909

    View details for Web of Science ID 000184768700015

  • Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields SCIENCE Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P. 2003; 299 (5609): 1032-1032

    View details for Web of Science ID 000180960000036

    View details for PubMedID 12586935

  • Remote sensing of regional crop production in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico: estimates and uncertainties AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Benning, T. L. 2003; 94 (2): 205-220

    View details for Web of Science ID 000180646500007

  • Soil, climate, and management impacts on regional wheat productivity in Mexico from remote sensing AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Addams, C. L., Asner, G. P. 2002; 114 (1-2): 31-43

    View details for Web of Science ID 000179618000003

  • Satellite estimates of productivity and light use efficiency in United States agriculture, 1982-98 GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY Lobell, D. B., Hicke, J. A., Asner, G. P., Field, C. B., Tucker, C. J., Los, S. O. 2002; 8 (8): 722-735

    View details for Web of Science ID 000176798400003

  • View angle effects on canopy reflectance and spectral mixture analysis of coniferous forests using AVIRIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P., Law, B. E., Treuhaft, R. N. 2002; 23 (11): 2247-2262

    View details for DOI 10.1080/01431160110075613

    View details for Web of Science ID 000175510600008

  • Moisture effects on soil reflectance SOIL SCIENCE SOCIETY OF AMERICA JOURNAL Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P. 2002; 66 (3): 722-727

    View details for Web of Science ID 000175288300006

  • Subpixel canopy cover estimation of coniferous forests in Oregon using SWIR imaging spectrometry JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES Lobell, D. B., Asner, G. P., Law, B. E., Treuhaft, R. N. 2001; 106 (D6): 5151-5160

    View details for Web of Science ID 000167635900003

  • A biogeophysical approach for automated SWIR unmixing of soils and vegetation REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT Asner, G. P., Lobell, D. B. 2000; 74 (1): 99-112

    View details for Web of Science ID 000089448300008

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5969-3476