Gretchen C. Daily
Bing Professor of Environmental Science and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment and, by courtesy, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Biology
Academic Appointments
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Professor, Biology
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Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
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Senior Fellow (By courtesy), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Administrative Appointments
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Director, Natural Capital Project (2005 - Present)
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Director, Center for Conservation Biology (2010 - Present)
Honors & Awards
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Fellow, American Philosophical Society, USA (2008)
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Fellow, US National Academy of Sciences (2005)
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Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, USA (2003)
Boards, Advisory Committees, Professional Organizations
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Faculty Fellow, Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health (CIGH) (2021 - Present)
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Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) (2021 - Present)
Program Affiliations
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Center for Latin American Studies
Current Research and Scholarly Interests
Land use, biodiversity dynamics, ecosystem services
2024-25 Courses
- The Science & Practice of Valuing Nature for a Better World
BIO 179, BIO 279, EARTHSYS 179, EARTHSYS 279 (Aut) -
Independent Studies (9)
- Directed Individual Study in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 297 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Directed Reading in Biology
BIO 198 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Directed Reading in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 398 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Directed Research
EARTHSYS 250 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Directed Research in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 399 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Graduate Research
BIO 300 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Honors Program in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 199 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Teaching Practicum in Biology
BIO 290 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum) - Undergraduate Research
BIO 199 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
- Directed Individual Study in Earth Systems
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Prior Year Courses
2023-24 Courses
- The Science & Practice of Valuing Nature for a Better World
BIO 179, BIO 279, EARTHSYS 179, EARTHSYS 279 (Aut)
2022-23 Courses
- Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs
BIO 179, BIO 279, EARTHSYS 179, EARTHSYS 279 (Aut)
2021-22 Courses
- Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs
BIO 179, BIO 279, EARTHSYS 179, EARTHSYS 279 (Aut)
- The Science & Practice of Valuing Nature for a Better World
Stanford Advisees
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Hilary Brumberg -
Doctoral Dissertation Reader (AC)
Luísa Genes, Ben Moran, Chinmay Sonawane -
Postdoctoral Faculty Sponsor
Yingjie Li, Yougeng Lu, Julian Olaya Restrepo, Anders Rydstrom, Juliana Velez Gomez -
Doctoral Dissertation Advisor (AC)
Dallas Levey, Oliver Nguyen -
Master's Program Advisor
Ariella Chichilnisky du Lac, Anastazja Krostenko -
Doctoral Dissertation Co-Advisor (AC)
Lily Colburn, Siddharth Sachdeva, Katie Wu
Graduate and Fellowship Programs
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Biology (School of Humanities and Sciences) (Phd Program)
All Publications
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Gross ecosystem product (GEP): Quantifying nature for environmental and economic policy innovation.
Ambio
2023
Abstract
The large-scale loss of ecosystem assets around the world, and the resultant reduction in the provision of nature's benefits to people, underscores the urgent need for better metrics of ecological performance as well as their integration into decision-making. Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is a measure of the aggregate monetary value of final ecosystem-related goods and services in a specific area and for a given accounting period. GEP accounting captures the use of many ecosystem services in production processes across the economy, which are then valued in terms of their benefits to society. GEP has five key elements that make it transparent, trackable, and readily understandable: (1) a focus on nature's contributions to people; (2) the measurement of ecosystem assets as stocks and ecosystem services as flows; (3) the quantification of ecosystem service use; (4) an understanding of ecosystem service supply chains through value realization; and (5) the disaggregation of benefits across groups. Correspondingly, a series of innovative policies based on GEP have been designed and implemented in China. The theoretical and practical lessons provided by these experiences can support continued policy innovation for green and inclusive development around the world.
View details for DOI 10.1007/s13280-023-01948-8
View details for PubMedID 37943417
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Natural capital investments in China undermined by reclamation for cropland.
Nature ecology & evolution
2023
Abstract
Globally, rising food demand has caused widespread biodiversity and ecosystem services loss, prompting growing efforts in ecological protection and restoration. However, these efforts have been significantly undercut by further reclamation for cropland. Focusing on China, the world's largest grain producer, we found that at the national level from 2000 to 2015, reclamation for cropland undermined gains in wildlife habitat and the ecosystem services of water retention, sandstorm prevention, carbon sequestration and soil retention by 113.8%, 63.4%, 52.5%, 29.0% and 10.2%, respectively. To achieve global sustainability goals, conflicts between inefficient reclamation for cropland and natural capital investment need to be alleviated.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41559-023-02198-3
View details for PubMedID 37749401
View details for PubMedCentralID 6598988
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Diversified farms bolster forest-bird populations despite ongoing declines in tropical forests.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2023; 120 (37): e2303937120
Abstract
While some agricultural landscapes can support wildlife in the short term, it is uncertain how well they can truly sustain wildlife populations. To compare population trends in different production systems, we sampled birds along 48 transects in mature forests, diversified farms, and intensive farms across Costa Rica from 2000 to 2017. To assess how land use influenced population trends in the 349 resident and 80 migratory species with sufficient data, we developed population models. We found, first, that 23% of species were stable in all three land use types, with the rest almost evenly split between increasing and decreasing populations. Second, in forest habitats, a slightly higher fraction was declining: 62% of the 164 species undergoing long-term population changes; nearly half of these declines occurred in forest-affiliated invertivores. Third, in diversified farms, 49% of the 230 species with population changes were declining, with 60% of these declines occurring in agriculture-affiliated species. In contrast, 51% of the species with population changes on diversified farms showed increases, primarily in forest-affiliated invertivores and frugivores. In intensive farms, 153 species showed population changes, also with similar proportions of species increasing (50%) and decreasing (50%). Declines were concentrated in agriculture-affiliated invertivores and forest-affiliated frugivores; increases occurred in many large, omnivorous species. Our findings paint a complex picture but clearly indicate that diversified farming helps sustain populations of diverse, forest-affiliated species. Despite not fully offsetting losses in forest habitats, diversified farming practices help sustain wildlife in a critical time, before possible transformation to nature-positive policies and practices.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2303937120
View details for PubMedID 37669369
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Centring justice in conceptualizing and improving access to urban nature
PEOPLE AND NATURE
2023
View details for DOI 10.1002/pan3.10470
View details for Web of Science ID 000989379400001
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Using stable isotopes to measure the dietary responses of Costa Rican forest birds to agricultural countryside
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
2023; 11
View details for DOI 10.3389/fevo.2023.1086616
View details for Web of Science ID 000967678700001
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Colombian biodiversity is governed by a rich and diverse policy mix.
Nature ecology & evolution
2023
Abstract
We lack an understanding of how diverse policymakers interact to govern biodiversity. Taking Colombia as a focal case, we examined six decades of biodiversity governance (1959-2018). Here we analysed the composition of the policy mix, and how it has evolved over time, how policies differ among lead actors and ecosystems, and whether the policy mix addresses the primary threats to biodiversity. We identified 186 biodiversity-related policies that govern multiple ecosystems, use different instruments and address the main threats to biodiversity (that is, agriculture and aquaculture, and biological resource use). We found policy gaps in the governance of invasive species and wildlife trade. Biodiversity policy integration into some sectoral policies, such as climate change, poverty and pollution, has become more common in the past decade. Our results point to an increased need for effective coordination across sectors and actors, as new ones influence and implement the policy mix.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41559-023-01983-4
View details for PubMedID 36747078
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Global expansion of sustainable irrigation limited by water storage.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2022; 119 (47): e2214291119
Abstract
Providing affordable and nutritious food to a growing and increasingly affluent global population requires multifaceted approaches to target supply and demand aspects. On the supply side, expanding irrigation is key to increase future food production, yet associated needs for storing water and implications of providing that water storage, remain unknown. Here, we quantify biophysical potentials for storage-fed sustainable irrigation-irrigation that neither depletes freshwater resources nor expands croplands but requires water to be stored before use-and study implications for food security and infrastructure. We find that water storage is crucial for future food systems because 460 km3/yr of sustainable blue water, enough to grow food for 1.15 billion people, can only be used for irrigation after storage. Even if all identified future dams were to contribute water to irrigation, water stored in dammed reservoirs could only supply 209 ± 50 km3/yr to irrigation and grow food for 631 ± 145 million people. In the face of this gap and the major socioecologic externalities from future dams, our results highlight limits of gray infrastructure for future irrigation and urge to increase irrigation efficiency, change to less water-intensive cropping systems, and deploy alternative storage solutions at scale.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2214291119
View details for PubMedID 36375068
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Modeling multiple ecosystem services and beneficiaries of riparian reforestation in Costa Rica
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
2022; 57
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ecoser.2022.101470
View details for Web of Science ID 000862222900005
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25 years of valuing ecosystems in decision-making
NATURE
2022
View details for DOI 10.1038/d41586-022-01480-x
View details for Web of Science ID 000803836500001
View details for PubMedID 35641612
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Conservation of birds in fragmented landscapes requires protected areas
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2022
View details for DOI 10.1002/fee.2485
View details for Web of Science ID 000772023200001
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Deep Learning Segmentation of Satellite Imagery Identifies Aquatic Vegetation Associated with Snail Intermediate Hosts of Schistosomiasis in Senegal, Africa
REMOTE SENSING
2022; 14 (6)
View details for DOI 10.3390/rs14061345
View details for Web of Science ID 000774465700001
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Biodiversity and infrastructure interact to drive tourism to and within Costa Rica.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2022; 119 (11): e2107662119
Abstract
SignificanceTourism accounts for roughly 10% of global gross domestic product, with nature-based tourism its fastest-growing sector in the past 10 years. Nature-based tourism can theoretically contribute to local and sustainable development by creating attractive livelihoods that support biodiversity conservation, but whether tourists prefer to visit more biodiverse destinations is poorly understood. We examine this question in Costa Rica and find that more biodiverse places tend indeed to attract more tourists, especially where there is infrastructure that makes these places more accessible. Safeguarding terrestrial biodiversity is critical to preserving the substantial economic benefits that countries derive from tourism. Investments in both biodiversity conservation and infrastructure are needed to allow biodiverse countries to rely on tourism for their sustainable development.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2107662119
View details for PubMedID 35245152
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CropPol: a dynamic, open and global database on crop pollination.
Ecology
1800
Abstract
Seventy five percent of the world's food crops benefit from insect pollination. Hence, there has been increased interest in how global change drivers impact this critical ecosystem service. Because standardized data on crop pollination are rarely available, we are limited in our capacity to understand the variation in pollination benefits to crop yield, as well as to anticipate changes in this service, develop predictions, and inform management actions. Here, we present CropPol, a dynamic, open and global database on crop pollination. It contains measurements recorded from 202 crop studies, covering 3,394 field observations, 2,552 yield measurements (i.e. berry weight, number of fruits and kg per hectare, among others), and 47,752 insect records from 48 commercial crops distributed around the globe. CropPol comprises 32 of the 87 leading global crops and commodities that are pollinator dependent. Malus domestica is the most represented crop (32 studies), followed by Brassica napus (22 studies), Vaccinium corymbosum (13 studies), and Citrullus lanatus (12 studies). The most abundant pollinator guilds recorded are honey bees (34.22% counts), bumblebees (19.19%), flies other than Syrphidae and Bombyliidae (13.18%), other wild bees (13.13%), beetles (10.97%), Syrphidae (4.87%), and Bombyliidae (0.05%). Locations comprise 34 countries distributed among Europe (76 studies), Northern America (60), Latin America and the Caribbean (29), Asia (20), Oceania (10), and Africa (7). Sampling spans three decades and is concentrated on 2001-05 (21 studies), 2006-10 (40), 2011-15 (88), and 2016-20 (50). This is the most comprehensive open global data set on measurements of crop flower visitors, crop pollinators and pollination to date, and we encourage researchers to add more datasets to this database in the future. This data set is released for non-commercial use only. Credits should be given to this paper (i.e., proper citation), and the products generated with this database should be shared under the same license terms (CC BY-NC-SA). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
View details for DOI 10.1002/ecy.3614
View details for PubMedID 34921678
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Natural capital approaches: shifting the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration from aspiration to reality
RESTORATION ECOLOGY
2021
View details for DOI 10.1111/rec.13613
View details for Web of Science ID 000729444700001
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The Next Steps for Valuing Nature in Decision Making
ENVIRONMENT
2021; 63 (6): 17-20
View details for DOI 10.1080/00139157.2021.1979858
View details for Web of Science ID 000718630100004
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Spatial assessment of flow and benefit of tropical cyclone hazard mitigation service
PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY-EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT
2021
View details for DOI 10.1177/03091333211037643
View details for Web of Science ID 000686308300001
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Maintaining the Many Societal Benefits of Rangelands: The Case of Hawai'i
LAND
2021; 10 (7)
View details for DOI 10.3390/land10070764
View details for Web of Science ID 000677340200001
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Blending Ecosystem Service and Resilience Perspectives in Planning of Natural Infrastructure: Lessons from the San Francisco Bay Area
FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
2021; 9
View details for DOI 10.3389/fenvs.2021.601136
View details for Web of Science ID 000670567500001
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An ecosystem service perspective on urban nature, physical activity, and health.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2021; 118 (22)
Abstract
Nature underpins human well-being in critical ways, especially in health. Nature provides pollination of nutritious crops, purification of drinking water, protection from floods, and climate security, among other well-studied health benefits. A crucial, yet challenging, research frontier is clarifying how nature promotes physical activity for its many mental and physical health benefits, particularly in densely populated cities with scarce and dwindling access to nature. Here we frame this frontier by conceptually developing a spatial decision-support tool that shows where, how, and for whom urban nature promotes physical activity, to inform urban greening efforts and broader health assessments. We synthesize what is known, present a model framework, and detail the model steps and data needs that can yield generalizable spatial models and an effective tool for assessing the urban nature-physical activity relationship. Current knowledge supports an initial model that can distinguish broad trends and enrich urban planning, spatial policy, and public health decisions. New, iterative research and application will reveal the importance of different types of urban nature, the different subpopulations who will benefit from it, and nature's potential contribution to creating more equitable, green, livable cities with active inhabitants.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2018472118
View details for PubMedID 33990458
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Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere.
Ambio
2021
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.
View details for DOI 10.1007/s13280-021-01544-8
View details for PubMedID 33715097
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Affective Benefits of Nature Contact: The Role of Rumination
FRONTIERS IN PSYCHOLOGY
2021; 12
View details for DOI 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.643866
View details for Web of Science ID 000631818600001
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Affective Benefits of Nature Contact: The Role of Rumination.
Frontiers in psychology
2021; 12: 643866
Abstract
Mounting evidence shows that nature contact is associated with affective benefits. However, the psychological mechanisms responsible for these effects are not well understood. In this study, we examined whether more time spent in nature was associated with higher levels of positive affect in general, and lower levels of negative affect and rumination in general. We also conducted a cross-sectional mediation analysis to examine whether rumination mediated the association of nature contact with affect. Participants (N = 617) reported their average time spent in nature each week, as well as their general levels of positive and negative affect, and the degree to which they typically engaged in rumination in daily life. We then used structural equation modeling to test our hypotheses. Our results support the hypothesis that nature contact is associated with general levels of affect, and that rumination mediates this association for negative affect, and marginally mediates this association for positive affect.
View details for DOI 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.643866
View details for PubMedID 33776870
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC7988226
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Time and space catch up with restoration programs that ignore ecosystem service trade-offs.
Science advances
2021; 7 (14)
Abstract
In response to extreme societal consequences of ecosystem degradation and climate change, attention to ecological restoration is increasing globally. In China, investments in restoration exceeded USD 378.5 billion over the past decade. However, restoration programs are experiments that can cause marked unintended consequences, with trade-offs across space and time that have undergone little empirical examination. We quantified the long-term effects of large-scale afforestation for soil erosion and sandstorm prevention in semiarid China. We found that soil erosion was notably reduced by afforestation but surface runoff declined significantly, after a time lag of 18 years, limiting overall benefit. While forest area also increased, forest quality declined, interacting with reduced surface water runoff. Crucially, increased forest water consumption accelerated downstream groundwater depletion, thus intensifying conflicts over water use. The time lags and spatial trade-offs revealed by this case study provide critical lessons for large-scale restoration programs globally.
View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.abf8650
View details for PubMedID 33789907
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Eco-environmental impacts of dams in the Yangtze River Basin, China.
The Science of the total environment
2021; 774: 145743
Abstract
Nearly half large dams of China have been built in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and the eco-environmental impacts of existing dams remain elusive. Here we present a spatio-temporal approach to measuring the eco-environmental impacts of dams and its long-term changes. We also develop a new metric, the dam eco-environmental effect index (DEEI), that quickly identifies the eco-environmental impacts on dams over 36 years. Underlying the analysis are the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the generalized boosted regression modeling (GBM), the generalized linear model (GLM), stepwise multiple regression, trend analysis, soil erosion and sediment yield balance equation, and sample entropy used to identify the eco-environmental impacts of dams on yearly timescales. We find that the accumulated negative environmental effects of constructed dams have increased significantly and has led to large-scale hydrophysical and human health risk affecting the Yangtze River Basins downstream (i.e. Jianghan-Lushui-Northeastern Hubei, Dongting Lake District, Yichang-Jianli, and Qingjiang) and reservoir areas (i.e. Wanxian-Miaohe, Miaohe-Huanglingmiao, and Huanglingmiao-Yichang). We also provide observational evidence that dam construction has reduced the complexity of short-term (1-12 months) in runoff and sediment loads. This spatial pattern seems to reflect a filtering effect of the dams on the temporal and spatial patterns of runoff and sediment. Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has a significant impact on the complexity of the runoff and sediment loads in the mainstream of the Yangtze River. This enhanced impact is attributed to the high trapping efficiency of the dam and its associated large reservoir. This assessment may underestimate the cumulative effect of the dam because it does not consider the future effects of the planned dam. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for finding the relative change rate of eco-environmental impact on dams, which is the first step towards addressing the extent, process, and magnitude of the dam-induced effects.
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145743
View details for PubMedID 33609848
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An Introduction to the Economics of Natural Capital
REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY
2021; 15 (1): 87-94
View details for DOI 10.1086/713010
View details for Web of Science ID 000641860200005
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WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
2021; 374 (6567): 544
Abstract
[Figure: see text].
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.abm1680
View details for PubMedID 34709891
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Corridors of Clarity: Four Principles to Overcome Uncertainty Paralysis in the Anthropocene.
Bioscience
2020; 70 (12): 1139–44
Abstract
Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.
View details for DOI 10.1093/biosci/biaa115
View details for PubMedID 33376456
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Does China's major Payment for Ecosystem Services program meet the "gold criteria"? Targeting strategies of different decision-makers
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
2020; 275
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122667
View details for Web of Science ID 000579495100016
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Urbanization, Migration, and Adaptation to Climate Change
ONE EARTH
2020; 3 (4): 396-399
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.09.016
View details for Web of Science ID 000646423500005
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Increasing decision relevance of ecosystem service science
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
2020
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41893-020-00625-y
View details for Web of Science ID 000577035900003
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Using gross ecosystem product (GEP) to value nature in decision making.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2020
Abstract
Gross domestic product (GDP) summarizes a vast amount of economic information in a single monetary metric that is widely used by decision makers around the world. However, GDP fails to capture fully the contributions of nature to economic activity and human well-being. To address this critical omission, we develop a measure of gross ecosystem product (GEP) that summarizes the value of ecosystem services in a single monetary metric. We illustrate the measurement of GEP through an application to the Chinese province of Qinghai, showing that the approach is tractable using available data. Known as the "water tower of Asia," Qinghai is the source of the Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers, and indeed, we find that water-related ecosystem services make up nearly two-thirds of the value of GEP for Qinghai. Importantly most of these benefits accrue downstream. In Qinghai, GEP was greater than GDP in 2000 and three-fourths as large as GDP in 2015 as its market economy grew. Large-scale investment in restoration resulted in improvements in the flows of ecosystem services measured in GEP (127.5%) over this period. Going forward, China is using GEP in decision making in multiple ways, as part of a transformation to inclusive, green growth. This includes investing in conservation of ecosystem assets to secure provision of ecosystem services through transregional compensation payments.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1911439117
View details for PubMedID 32513694
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Donald Kennedy (1931-2020).
Science (New York, N.Y.)
2020; 368 (6495): 1062
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.abc7807
View details for PubMedID 32499430
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The biogeography of ecoregions: Descriptive power across regions and taxa
JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY
2020
View details for DOI 10.1111/jbi.13871
View details for Web of Science ID 000533465200001
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Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2020
Abstract
We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household's decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243-1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people "abandoning the freedom to breed." That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1909857117
View details for PubMedID 32165543
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Intensive farming drives long-term shifts in avian community composition.
Nature
2020; 579 (7799): 393–96
Abstract
Agricultural practices constitute both the greatest cause of biodiversity loss and the greatest opportunity for conservation1,2, given the shrinking scope of protected areas in many regions. Recent studies have documented the high levels of biodiversity-across many taxa and biomes-that agricultural landscapes can support over the short term1,3,4. However, little is known about the long-term effects of alternative agricultural practices on ecological communities4,5 Here we document changes in bird communities in intensive-agriculture, diversified-agriculture and natural-forest habitats in 4 regions of Costa Rica over a period of 18 years. Long-term directional shifts in bird communities were evident in intensive- and diversified-agricultural habitats, but were strongest in intensive-agricultural habitats, where the number of endemic and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List species fell over time. All major guilds, including those involved in pest control, pollination and seed dispersal, were affected. Bird communities in intensive-agricultural habitats proved more susceptible to changes in climate, with hotter and drier periods associated with greater changes in community composition in these settings. These findings demonstrate that diversified agriculture can help to alleviate the long-term loss of biodiversity outside natural protected areas1.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-020-2090-6
View details for PubMedID 32188954
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Publisher Correction: Intensive farming drives long-term shifts in avian community composition.
Nature
2020; 581 (7808): E6
Abstract
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41586-020-2310-0
View details for PubMedID 32433608
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Land-use change has host-specific influences on avian gut microbiomes.
The ISME journal
2019
Abstract
Human modification of the environment, particularly through land-use change, often reduces animal species diversity. However, the effect of land-use change on the gut microbiome of wildlife in human-dominated landscapes is not well understood despite its potential consequences for host health. We sought to quantify the effect of land-use change on wild bird gut microbiomes in a countryside landscape in Costa Rica, comprising a range of habitat types, ranging from primary and secondary forests to diversified and monoculture farms. We collected 280 fresh fecal samples from individuals belonging to six common species of saltator, thrushes, and warblers at 24 sites across this land-use gradient. Through 16S rRNA community profiling, we found that bacterial species composition responded to host species identity more strongly than to habitat type. In addition, we found evidence that habitat type affected microbial composition only for two of the six bird species. Our findings indicate that some host species and their microbiota may be more vulnerable to human disturbances than others.
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41396-019-0535-4
View details for PubMedID 31624349
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Conservation in human-dominated landscapes: Lessons from the distribution of the Central American squirrel monkey
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
2019; 237: 41–49
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.06.008
View details for Web of Science ID 000488314700005
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Four priorities for new links between conservation science and accounting research
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2019; 33 (4): 972–75
View details for DOI 10.1111/cobi.13254
View details for Web of Science ID 000474668700028
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Nature and mental health: An ecosystem service perspective.
Science advances
2019; 5 (7): eaax0903
Abstract
A growing body of empirical evidence is revealing the value of nature experience for mental health. With rapid urbanization and declines in human contact with nature globally, crucial decisions must be made about how to preserve and enhance opportunities for nature experience. Here, we first provide points of consensus across the natural, social, and health sciences on the impacts of nature experience on cognitive functioning, emotional well-being, and other dimensions of mental health. We then show how ecosystem service assessments can be expanded to include mental health, and provide a heuristic, conceptual model for doing so.
View details for DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aax0903
View details for PubMedID 31355340
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Long-term declines in bird populations in tropical agricultural countryside
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2019; 116 (20): 9903–12
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1802732116
View details for Web of Science ID 000467804000039
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Realizing the values of natural capital for inclusive, sustainable development: Informing China's new ecological development strategy
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2019; 116 (17): 8623–28
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1819501116
View details for Web of Science ID 000465363700081
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Realizing the values of natural capital for inclusive, sustainable development: Informing China's new ecological development strategy.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2019
Abstract
A major challenge in transforming development to inclusive, sustainable pathways is the pervasive and persistent trade-off between provisioning services (e.g., agricultural production) on the one hand and regulating services (e.g., water purification, flood control) and biodiversity conservation on the other. We report on an application of China's new Ecological Development Strategy, now being formally tested and refined for subsequent scaling nationwide, which aims to mitigate and even eliminate these trade-offs. Our focus is the Ecosystem Function Conservation Area of Hainan Island, a rural, tropical region where expansion of rubber plantations has driven extensive loss of natural forest and its vital benefits to people. We explored both the biophysical and the socioeconomic options for achieving simultaneous improvements in product provision, regulating services, biodiversity, and livelihoods. We quantified historic trade-offs between rubber production and vital regulating services, finding that, over the past 20 y (1998-2017), there was a 72.2% increase in rubber plantation area, leading to decreases in soil retention (17.8%), water purification [reduced retention of nitrogen (56.3%) and phosphorus (27.4%)], flood mitigation (21.9%), carbon sequestration (1.7%), and habitat for biodiversity (6.9%). Using scenario analyses, we identified a two-pronged strategy that would significantly reduce these trade-offs, enhancing regulating services and biodiversity, while simultaneously diversifying and increasing product provision and improving livelihoods. This general approach to analyzing product provision, regulating services, biodiversity, and livelihoods has applicability in rural landscapes across China, South and Southeast Asia, and beyond.
View details for PubMedID 30952787
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A global test of ecoregions (vol 2, pg 1889, 2018)
NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
2019; 3 (4): 708
View details for DOI 10.1038/s41559-019-0858-6
View details for Web of Science ID 000462542100034
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Role of economics in analyzing the environment and sustainable development.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2019; 116 (12): 5233–38
View details for PubMedID 30890656
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Author Correction: A global test of ecoregions.
Nature ecology & evolution
2019
Abstract
The original paper was published without unique DOIs for GBIF occurrence downloads. These have now been inserted as references 70-76, and the error has been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions of the article.
View details for PubMedID 30858593
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Global modeling of nature's contributions to people.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
2019; 366 (6462): 255–58
Abstract
The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aaw3372
View details for PubMedID 31601772
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Long-term declines in bird populations in tropical agricultural countryside.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2019
Abstract
Tropical agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, yet it can provide conservation opportunities, especially where protected areas are inadequate. To investigate the long-term biodiversity capacity of agricultural countryside, we quantified bird population trends in Costa Rica by mist netting 57,255 birds of 265 species between 1999 and 2010 in sun coffee plantations, riparian corridors, secondary forests, forest fragments, and primary forest reserves. More bird populations (69) were declining than were stable (39) or increasing (4). Declines were common in resident, insectivorous, and more specialized species. There was no relationship between the species richness of a habitat and its conservation value. High-value forest bird communities were characterized by their distinct species composition and habitat and dietary functional signatures. While 49% of bird species preferred forest to coffee, 39% preferred coffee to forest and 12% used both habitats, indicating that coffee plantations have some conservation value. Coffee plantations, although lacking most of the forest specialists, hosted 185 bird species, had the highest capture rates, and supported increasing numbers of some forest species. Coffee plantations with higher tree cover (7% vs. 13%) had more species with increasing capture rates, twice as many forest specialists, and half as many nonforest species. Costa Rican countryside habitats, especially those with greater tree cover, host many bird species and are critical for connecting bird populations in forest remnants. Diversified agricultural landscapes can enhance the biodiversity capacity of tropical countryside, but, for the long-term persistence of all forest bird species, large (>1,000 ha) protected areas are essential.
View details for PubMedID 31036662
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Four priorities for new links between conservation science and accounting research.
Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
2018
Abstract
Article impact statement: New collaborations with accounting research can improve conservation impact of ecosystem-based information systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
View details for PubMedID 30456769
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A global test of ecoregions.
Nature ecology & evolution
2018
Abstract
A foundational paradigm in biological and Earth sciences is that our planet is divided into distinct ecoregions and biomes demarking unique assemblages of species. This notion has profoundly influenced scientific research and environmental policy. Given recent advances in technology and data availability, however, we are now poised to ask whether ecoregions meaningfully delimit biological communities. Using over 200 million observations of plants, animals and fungi we show compelling evidence that ecoregions delineate terrestrial biodiversity patterns. We achieve this by testing two competing hypotheses: the sharp-transition hypothesis, positing that ecoregion borders divide differentiated biotic communities; and the gradual-transition hypothesis, proposing instead that species turnover is continuous and largely independent of ecoregion borders. We find strong support for the sharp-transition hypothesis across all taxa, although adherence to ecoregion boundaries varies across taxa. Although plant and vertebrate species are tightly linked to sharp ecoregion boundaries, arthropods and fungi show weaker affiliations to this set of ecoregion borders. Our results highlight the essential value of ecological data for setting conservation priorities and reinforce the importance of protecting habitats across as many ecoregions as possible. Specifically, we conclude that ecoregion-based conservation planning can guide investments that simultaneously protect species-, community- and ecosystem-level biodiversity, key for securing Earth's life support systems into the future.
View details for PubMedID 30397301
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Predicting effects of large-scale reforestation on native and exotic birds
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
2018; 24 (6): 811–19
View details for DOI 10.1111/ddi.12723
View details for Web of Science ID 000433571100009
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Does Poverty Matter in Payment for Ecosystem Services Program? Participation in the New Stage Sloping Land Conversion Program
SUSTAINABILITY
2018; 10 (6)
View details for DOI 10.3390/su10061888
View details for Web of Science ID 000436570100200
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The impact on rural livelihoods and ecosystem services of a major relocation and settlement program: A case in Shaanxi, China
AMBIO
2018; 47 (2): 245–59
Abstract
China's largest-ever resettlement program is underway, aiming to restore ecosystems and lift ecosystem service providers out of the poverty trap and into sustainable livelihoods. We examine the impact of the relocation and settlement program (RSP) to date, reporting on an ecosystem services (ES) assessment and a 1400-household survey. The RSP generally achieves the goals of ES increase and livelihood restore. In biophysical terms, the RSP improves water quality, sediment retention, and carbon sequestration. In social terms, resettled households so far report transformation of livelihoods activities from traditional inefficient agricultural and forest production to non-farm activities. Increased income contributes to decrease the poverty rate and improve resettled households' living condition and standard. Meanwhile, the RSP decreases households' dependence on ES in terms of provisioning services. Difficulty and challenge also showed up subsequently after relocation. A major current challenge is to enable poorer households to move, while providing greater follow-up support to relocated households. While the program is unique to China, it illuminates widespread opportunities for addressing environmental and poverty-related concerns in a rapidly changing world.
View details for PubMedID 28983793
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC5794687
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Response to Kabisch and Colleagues
BIOSCIENCE
2018; 68 (3): 167–68
View details for DOI 10.1093/biosci/bix154
View details for Web of Science ID 000426813000004
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Mainstreaming investments in watershed services to enhance water security: Barriers and opportunities
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY
2017; 75: 19–27
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.007
View details for Web of Science ID 000407869500003
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When, Where, and How Nature Matters for Ecosystem Services: Challenges for the Next Generation of Ecosystem Service Models
BIOSCIENCE
2017; 67 (9): 820–33
View details for DOI 10.1093/biosci/bix075
View details for Web of Science ID 000410077600008
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REPLY TO YANG ET AL.: Coastal wetlands are not well represented by protected areas for endangered birds
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2017; 114 (28): E5493
View details for PubMedID 28626041
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Reply to Bridgewater and Babin: Need for a new protected area category for ecosystem services.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2017; 114 (22): E4319-E4320
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1703083114
View details for PubMedID 28536203
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Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
2017; 8
Abstract
International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.
View details for DOI 10.1038/ncomms15065
View details for Web of Science ID 000399983700001
View details for PubMedID 28429710
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A novel framework to account for ecological drivers in the control and elimination of environmentally transmitted disease: a modelling study
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. 2017: 5
View details for Web of Science ID 000406739900006
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Strengthening protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in China.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2017; 114 (7): 1601-1606
Abstract
Recent expansion of the scale of human activities poses severe threats to Earth's life-support systems. Increasingly, protected areas (PAs) are expected to serve dual goals: protect biodiversity and secure ecosystem services. We report a nationwide assessment for China, quantifying the provision of threatened species habitat and four key regulating services-water retention, soil retention, sandstorm prevention, and carbon sequestration-in nature reserves (the primary category of PAs in China). We find that China's nature reserves serve moderately well for mammals and birds, but not for other major taxa, nor for these key regulating ecosystem services. China's nature reserves encompass 15.1% of the country's land surface. They capture 17.9% and 16.4% of the entire habitat area for threatened mammals and birds, but only 13.1% for plants, 10.0% for amphibians, and 8.5% for reptiles. Nature reserves encompass only 10.2-12.5% of the source areas for the four key regulating services. They are concentrated in western China, whereas much threatened species' habitat and regulating service source areas occur in eastern provinces. Our analysis illuminates a strategy for greatly strengthening PAs, through creating the first comprehensive national park system of China. This would encompass both nature reserves, in which human activities are highly restricted, and a new category of PAs for ecosystem services, in which human activities not impacting key services are permitted. This could close the gap in a politically feasible way. We also propose a new category of PAs globally, for sustaining the provision of ecosystems services and achieving sustainable development goals.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1620503114
View details for PubMedID 28137858
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC5321011
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Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability
AMBIO
2017; 46 (1): 4-17
Abstract
There is an ongoing debate on what constitutes sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA). In this paper, we propose that a paradigm for sustainable intensification can be defined and translated into an operational framework for agricultural development. We argue that this paradigm must now be defined-at all scales-in the context of rapidly rising global environmental changes in the Anthropocene, while focusing on eradicating poverty and hunger and contributing to human wellbeing. The criteria and approach we propose, for a paradigm shift towards sustainable intensification of agriculture, integrates the dual and interdependent goals of using sustainable practices to meet rising human needs while contributing to resilience and sustainability of landscapes, the biosphere, and the Earth system. Both of these, in turn, are required to sustain the future viability of agriculture. This paradigm shift aims at repositioning world agriculture from its current role as the world's single largest driver of global environmental change, to becoming a key contributor of a global transition to a sustainable world within a safe operating space on Earth.
View details for DOI 10.1007/s13280-016-0793-6
View details for Web of Science ID 000392285300001
View details for PubMedID 27405653
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC5226894
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Phylogeny, Traits, and Biodiversity of a Neotropical Bat Assemblage: Close Relatives Show Similar Responses to Local Deforestation.
The American naturalist
2017; 190 (2): 200–212
Abstract
If species' evolutionary pasts predetermine their responses to evolutionarily novel stressors, then phylogeny could predict species survival in an increasingly human-dominated world. To understand the role of phylogenetic relatedness in structuring responses to rapid environmental change, we focused on assemblages of Neotropical bats, an ecologically diverse and functionally important group. We examined how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity shift between tropical forest and farmland. We then explored the importance of evolutionary history by ascertaining whether close relatives share similar responses to environmental change and which species traits might mediate these trends. We analyzed a 5-year data set (5,011 captures) from 18 sites in a countryside landscape in southern Costa Rica using statistical models that account and correct for imperfect detection of species across sites, spatial autocorrelation, and consideration of spatial scale. Taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity decreased with deforestation, and assemblages became more phylogenetically clustered. Species' responses to deforestation were strongly phylogenetically correlated. Body mass and absolute wing loading explained a substantial portion of species variation in species' habitat preferences, likely related to these traits' influence on maneuverability in cluttered forest environments. Our findings highlight the role that evolutionary history plays in determining which species will survive human impacts and the need to consider diversity metrics, evolutionary history, and traits together when making predictions about species persistence for conservation or ecosystem functioning.
View details for DOI 10.1086/692534
View details for PubMedID 28731793
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Using ecosystem service trade-offs to inform water conservation policies and management practices
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2016; 14 (10): 527-532
View details for DOI 10.1002/fee.1432
View details for Web of Science ID 000389309100014
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Quantifying and sustaining biodiversity in tropical agricultural landscapes.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2016
Abstract
Decision-makers increasingly seek scientific guidance on investing in nature, but biodiversity remains difficult to estimate across diverse landscapes. Here, we develop empirically based models for quantifying biodiversity across space. We focus on agricultural lands in the tropical forest biome, wherein lies the greatest potential to conserve or lose biodiversity. We explore two questions, drawing from empirical research oriented toward pioneering policies in Costa Rica. First, can remotely sensed tree cover serve as a reliable basis for improved estimation of biodiversity, from plots to regions? Second, how does tropical biodiversity change across the land-use gradient from native forest to deforested cropland and pasture? We report on understory plants, nonflying mammals, bats, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. Using data from 67,737 observations of 908 species, we test how tree cover influences biodiversity across space. First, we find that fine-scale mapping of tree cover predicts biodiversity within a taxon-specific radius (of 30-70 m) about a point in the landscape. Second, nearly 50% of the tree cover in our study region is embedded in countryside forest elements, small (typically 0.05-100 ha) clusters or strips of trees on private property. Third, most species use multiple habitat types, including crop fields and pastures (to which 15% of species are restricted), although some taxa depend on forest (57% of species are restricted to forest elements). Our findings are supported by comparisons of 90 studies across Latin America. They provide a basis for a planning tool that guides investments in tropical forest biodiversity similar to those for securing ecosystem services.
View details for PubMedID 27791070
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Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species
ECOLOGY LETTERS
2016; 19 (9): 1081-1090
Abstract
Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated.
View details for DOI 10.1111/ele.12645
View details for Web of Science ID 000382542500008
View details for PubMedID 27396714
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Anthropogenic impacts on Costa Rican bat parasitism are sex specific
ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
2016; 6 (14): 4898-4909
Abstract
While anthropogenic impacts on parasitism of wildlife are receiving growing attention, whether these impacts vary in a sex-specific manner remains little explored. Differences between the sexes in the effect of parasites, linked to anthropogenic activity, could lead to uneven sex ratios and higher population endangerment. We sampled 1108 individual bats in 18 different sites across an agricultural mosaic landscape in southern Costa Rica to investigate the relationships between anthropogenic impacts (deforestation and reductions in host species richness) and bat fly ectoparasitism of 35 species of Neotropical bats. Although female and male bat assemblages were similar across the deforestation gradient, bat fly assemblages tracked their hosts closely only on female bats. We found that in female hosts, parasite abundance per bat decreased with increasing bat species richness, while in male hosts, parasite abundance increased. We hypothesize the differences in the parasite-disturbance relationship are due to differences in roosting behavior between the sexes. We report a sex-specific parasite-disturbance relationship and argue that sex differences in anthropogenic impacts on wildlife parasitism could impact long-term population health and survival.
View details for DOI 10.1002/ece3.2245
View details for Web of Science ID 000380033400022
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4979715
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Anthropogenic impacts on Costa Rican bat parasitism are sex specific.
Ecology and evolution
2016; 6 (14): 4898-909
Abstract
While anthropogenic impacts on parasitism of wildlife are receiving growing attention, whether these impacts vary in a sex-specific manner remains little explored. Differences between the sexes in the effect of parasites, linked to anthropogenic activity, could lead to uneven sex ratios and higher population endangerment. We sampled 1108 individual bats in 18 different sites across an agricultural mosaic landscape in southern Costa Rica to investigate the relationships between anthropogenic impacts (deforestation and reductions in host species richness) and bat fly ectoparasitism of 35 species of Neotropical bats. Although female and male bat assemblages were similar across the deforestation gradient, bat fly assemblages tracked their hosts closely only on female bats. We found that in female hosts, parasite abundance per bat decreased with increasing bat species richness, while in male hosts, parasite abundance increased. We hypothesize the differences in the parasite-disturbance relationship are due to differences in roosting behavior between the sexes. We report a sex-specific parasite-disturbance relationship and argue that sex differences in anthropogenic impacts on wildlife parasitism could impact long-term population health and survival.
View details for DOI 10.1002/ece3.2245
View details for PubMedID 27547321
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4979715
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Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital
SCIENCE
2016; 352 (6292): 1455-1459
Abstract
In response to ecosystem degradation from rapid economic development, China began investing heavily in protecting and restoring natural capital starting in 2000. We report on China's first national ecosystem assessment (2000-2010), designed to quantify and help manage change in ecosystem services, including food production, carbon sequestration, soil retention, sandstorm prevention, water retention, flood mitigation, and provision of habitat for biodiversity. Overall, ecosystem services improved from 2000 to 2010, apart from habitat provision. China's national conservation policies contributed significantly to the increases in those ecosystem services.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.aaf2295
View details for Web of Science ID 000377975400048
View details for PubMedID 27313045
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Valuation of ecosystem services to inform management of multiple-use landscapes
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
2016; 19: 6-18
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.03.005
View details for Web of Science ID 000378049200002
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Impacts of Land-Use Change on Groundwater Supply: Ecosystem Services Assessment in Kona, Hawaii
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
2015; 141 (12)
View details for DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000495
View details for Web of Science ID 000365122000001
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Tropical countryside riparian corridors provide critical habitat and connectivity for seed-dispersing forest birds in a fragmented landscape
JOURNAL OF ORNITHOLOGY
2015; 156: S343-S353
View details for DOI 10.1007/s10336-015-1299-x
View details for Web of Science ID 000367457200030
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Nature's bounties: reliance on pollinators for health
LANCET
2015; 386 (10007): 1925–27
View details for PubMedID 26188743
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Reply to Kirchhoff: Homogenous and mutually exclusive conservation typologies are neither possible nor desirable
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2015; 112 (44): E5906
View details for PubMedID 26483508
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Thermal niche predicts tolerance to habitat conversion in tropical amphibians and reptiles
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
2015; 21 (11): 3901-3916
Abstract
Habitat conversion is a major driver of the biodiversity crisis, yet why some species undergo local extinction while others thrive under novel conditions remains unclear. We suggest that focusing on species' niches, rather than traits, may provide the predictive power needed to forecast biodiversity change. We first examine two Neotropical frog congeners with drastically different affinities to deforestation and document how thermal niche explains deforestation tolerance. The more deforestation-tolerant species is associated with warmer macroclimates across Costa Rica, and warmer microclimates within landscapes. Further, in laboratory experiments, the more deforestation-tolerant species has critical thermal limits, and a jumping performance optimum, shifted ~2 °C warmer than those of the more forest-affiliated species, corresponding to the ~3 °C difference in daytime maximum temperature that these species experience between habitats. Crucially, neither species strictly specializes on either habitat - instead habitat use is governed by regional environmental temperature. Both species track temperature along an elevational gradient, and shift their habitat use from cooler forest at lower elevations to warmer deforested pastures upslope. To generalize these conclusions, we expand our analysis to the entire mid-elevational herpetological community of southern Costa Rica. We assess the climatological affinities of 33 amphibian and reptile species, showing that across both taxonomic classes, thermal niche predicts presence in deforested habitat as well as or better than many commonly used traits. These data suggest that warm-adapted species carry a significant survival advantage amidst the synergistic impacts of land-use conversion and climate change.
View details for DOI 10.1111/gcb.13016
View details for Web of Science ID 000364777200001
View details for PubMedID 26148337
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Confronting and resolving competing values behind conservation objectives
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2015; 112 (35): 11132-11137
Abstract
Diverse motivations for preserving nature both inspire and hinder its conservation. Optimal conservation strategies may differ radically depending on the objective. For example, creating nature reserves may prevent extinctions through protecting severely threatened species, whereas incentivizing farmland hedgerows may benefit people through bolstering pest-eating or pollinating species. Win-win interventions that satisfy multiple objectives are alluring, but can also be elusive. To achieve better outcomes, we developed and implemented a practical typology of nature conservation framed around seven common conservation objectives. Using an intensively studied bird assemblage in southern Costa Rica as a case study, we applied the typology in the context of biodiversity's most pervasive threat: habitat conversion. We found that rural habitats in a varied tropical landscape, comprising small farms, villages, forest fragments, and forest reserves, provided biodiversity-driven processes that benefit people, such as pollination, seed dispersal, and pest consumption. However, species valued for their rarity, endemism, and evolutionary distinctness declined in farmland. Conserving tropical forest on farmland increased species that international tourists value, but not species discussed in Costa Rican newspapers. Despite these observed trade-offs, our analyses also revealed promising synergies. For example, we found that maintaining forest cover surrounding farms in our study region would likely enhance most conservation objectives at minimal expense to others. Overall, our typology provides a framework for resolving the competing objectives of modern conservation.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1504788112
View details for Web of Science ID 000360383200080
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4568250
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Confronting and resolving competing values behind conservation objectives.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2015; 112 (35): 11132-11137
Abstract
Diverse motivations for preserving nature both inspire and hinder its conservation. Optimal conservation strategies may differ radically depending on the objective. For example, creating nature reserves may prevent extinctions through protecting severely threatened species, whereas incentivizing farmland hedgerows may benefit people through bolstering pest-eating or pollinating species. Win-win interventions that satisfy multiple objectives are alluring, but can also be elusive. To achieve better outcomes, we developed and implemented a practical typology of nature conservation framed around seven common conservation objectives. Using an intensively studied bird assemblage in southern Costa Rica as a case study, we applied the typology in the context of biodiversity's most pervasive threat: habitat conversion. We found that rural habitats in a varied tropical landscape, comprising small farms, villages, forest fragments, and forest reserves, provided biodiversity-driven processes that benefit people, such as pollination, seed dispersal, and pest consumption. However, species valued for their rarity, endemism, and evolutionary distinctness declined in farmland. Conserving tropical forest on farmland increased species that international tourists value, but not species discussed in Costa Rican newspapers. Despite these observed trade-offs, our analyses also revealed promising synergies. For example, we found that maintaining forest cover surrounding farms in our study region would likely enhance most conservation objectives at minimal expense to others. Overall, our typology provides a framework for resolving the competing objectives of modern conservation.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1504788112
View details for PubMedID 26283400
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Nature experience reduces rumination and subgenual prefrontal cortex activation.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
2015; 112 (28): 8567-8572
Abstract
Urbanization has many benefits, but it also is associated with increased levels of mental illness, including depression. It has been suggested that decreased nature experience may help to explain the link between urbanization and mental illness. This suggestion is supported by a growing body of correlational and experimental evidence, which raises a further question: what mechanism(s) link decreased nature experience to the development of mental illness? One such mechanism might be the impact of nature exposure on rumination, a maladaptive pattern of self-referential thought that is associated with heightened risk for depression and other mental illnesses. We show in healthy participants that a brief nature experience, a 90-min walk in a natural setting, decreases both self-reported rumination and neural activity in the subgenual prefrontal cortex (sgPFC), whereas a 90-min walk in an urban setting has no such effects on self-reported rumination or neural activity. In other studies, the sgPFC has been associated with a self-focused behavioral withdrawal linked to rumination in both depressed and healthy individuals. This study reveals a pathway by which nature experience may improve mental well-being and suggests that accessible natural areas within urban contexts may be a critical resource for mental health in our rapidly urbanizing world.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1510459112
View details for PubMedID 26124129
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4507237
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Notes from the field: Lessons learned from using ecosystem service approaches to inform real-world decisions
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
2015; 115: 11-21
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.07.009
View details for Web of Science ID 000355061800003
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Impacts of conservation and human development policy across stakeholders and scales
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2015; 112 (24): 7396-7401
Abstract
Ideally, both ecosystem service and human development policies should improve human well-being through the conservation of ecosystems that provide valuable services. However, program costs and benefits to multiple stakeholders, and how they change through time, are rarely carefully analyzed. We examine one of China's new ecosystem service protection and human development policies: the Relocation and Settlement Program of Southern Shaanxi Province (RSP), which pays households who opt voluntarily to resettle from mountainous areas. The RSP aims to reduce disaster risk, restore important ecosystem services, and improve human well-being. We use household surveys and biophysical data in an integrated economic cost-benefit analysis for multiple stakeholders. We project that the RSP will result in positive net benefits to the municipal government, and to cross-region and global beneficiaries over the long run along with environment improvement, including improved water quality, soil erosion control, and carbon sequestration. However, there are significant short-run relocation costs for local residents so that poor households may have difficulty participating because they lack the resources to pay the initial costs of relocation. Greater subsidies and subsequent supports after relocation are necessary to reduce the payback period of resettled households in the long run. Compensation from downstream beneficiaries for improved water and from carbon trades could be channeled into reducing relocation costs for the poor and sharing the burden of RSP implementation. The effectiveness of the RSP could also be greatly strengthened by early investment in developing human capital and environment-friendly jobs and establishing long-term mechanisms for securing program goals. These challenges and potential solutions pervade ecosystem service efforts globally.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1406486112
View details for Web of Science ID 000356251800034
View details for PubMedID 26082546
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4475968
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Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2015; 112 (24): 7348-7355
Abstract
The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1503751112
View details for Web of Science ID 000356251800027
View details for PubMedID 26082539
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4475956
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The benefits of nature experience: Improved affect and cognition
LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING
2015; 138: 41-50
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.02.005
View details for Web of Science ID 000355023000005
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A Protocol for eliciting nonmaterial values through a cultural ecosystem services frame
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2015; 29 (2): 575-586
Abstract
Stakeholders' nonmaterial desires, needs, and values often critically influence the success of conservation projects. These considerations are challenging to articulate and characterize, resulting in their limited uptake in management and policy. We devised an interview protocol designed to enhance understanding of cultural ecosystem services (CES). The protocol begins with discussion of ecosystem-related activities (e.g., recreation, hunting) and management and then addresses CES, prompting for values encompassing concepts identified in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) and explored in other CES research. We piloted the protocol in Hawaii and British Columbia. In each location, we interviewed 30 individuals from diverse backgrounds. We analyzed results from the 2 locations to determine the effectiveness of the interview protocol in elucidating nonmaterial values. The qualitative and spatial components of the protocol helped characterize cultural, social, and ethical values associated with ecosystems in multiple ways. Maps and situational, or vignette-like, questions helped respondents articulate difficult-to-discuss values. Open-ended prompts allowed respondents to express a diversity of ecosystem-related values and proved sufficiently flexible for interviewees to communicate values for which the protocol did not explicitly probe. Finally, the results suggest that certain values, those mentioned frequently throughout the interview, are particularly salient for particular populations. The protocol can provide efficient, contextual, and place-based data on the importance of particular ecosystem attributes for human well-being. Qualitative data are complementary to quantitative and spatial assessments in the comprehensive representation of people's values pertaining to ecosystems, and this protocol may assist in incorporating values frequently overlooked in decision making processes.
View details for DOI 10.1111/cobi.12407
View details for Web of Science ID 000351353400028
View details for PubMedID 25354730
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4407917
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Pollen Carried By Native and Nonnative Bees in the Large-scale Reforestation of Pastureland in Hawai'i: Implications for Pollination
PACIFIC SCIENCE
2015; 69 (1): 67-79
View details for DOI 10.2984/69.1.5
View details for Web of Science ID 000353171100005
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Loss of avian phylogenetic diversity in neotropical agricultural systems
SCIENCE
2014; 345 (6202): 1343-1346
Abstract
Habitat conversion is the primary driver of biodiversity loss, yet little is known about how it is restructuring the tree of life by favoring some lineages over others. We combined a complete avian phylogeny with 12 years of Costa Rican bird surveys (118,127 detections across 487 species) sampled in three land uses: forest reserves, diversified agricultural systems, and intensive monocultures. Diversified agricultural systems supported 600 million more years of evolutionary history than intensive monocultures but 300 million fewer years than forests. Compared with species with many extant relatives, evolutionarily distinct species were extirpated at higher rates in both diversified and intensive agricultural systems. Forests are therefore essential for maintaining diversity across the tree of life, but diversified agricultural systems may help buffer against extreme loss of phylogenetic diversity.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1254610
View details for Web of Science ID 000341483800064
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Loss of avian phylogenetic diversity in neotropical agricultural systems.
Science
2014; 345 (6202): 1343-1346
Abstract
Habitat conversion is the primary driver of biodiversity loss, yet little is known about how it is restructuring the tree of life by favoring some lineages over others. We combined a complete avian phylogeny with 12 years of Costa Rican bird surveys (118,127 detections across 487 species) sampled in three land uses: forest reserves, diversified agricultural systems, and intensive monocultures. Diversified agricultural systems supported 600 million more years of evolutionary history than intensive monocultures but 300 million fewer years than forests. Compared with species with many extant relatives, evolutionarily distinct species were extirpated at higher rates in both diversified and intensive agricultural systems. Forests are therefore essential for maintaining diversity across the tree of life, but diversified agricultural systems may help buffer against extreme loss of phylogenetic diversity.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1254610
View details for PubMedID 25214627
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COMMENTARY: Climate engineering reconsidered
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
2014; 4 (7): 527-529
View details for Web of Science ID 000338837400005
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Predicting biodiversity change and averting collapse in agricultural landscapes.
Nature
2014; 509 (7499): 213-217
Abstract
The equilibrium theory of island biogeography is the basis for estimating extinction rates and a pillar of conservation science. The default strategy for conserving biodiversity is the designation of nature reserves, treated as islands in an inhospitable sea of human activity. Despite the profound influence of islands on conservation theory and practice, their mainland analogues, forest fragments in human-dominated landscapes, consistently defy expected biodiversity patterns based on island biogeography theory. Countryside biogeography is an alternative framework, which recognizes that the fate of the world's wildlife will be decided largely by the hospitality of agricultural or countryside ecosystems. Here we directly test these biogeographic theories by comparing a Neotropical countryside ecosystem with a nearby island ecosystem, and show that each supports similar bat biodiversity in fundamentally different ways. The island ecosystem conforms to island biogeographic predictions of bat species loss, in which the water matrix is not habitat. In contrast, the countryside ecosystem has high species richness and evenness across forest reserves and smaller forest fragments. Relative to forest reserves and fragments, deforested countryside habitat supports a less species-rich, yet equally even, bat assemblage. Moreover, the bat assemblage associated with deforested habitat is compositionally novel because of predictable changes in abundances by many species using human-made habitat. Finally, we perform a global meta-analysis of bat biogeographic studies, spanning more than 700 species. It generalizes our findings, showing that separate biogeographic theories for countryside and island ecosystems are necessary. A theory of countryside biogeography is essential to conservation strategy in the agricultural ecosystems that comprise roughly half of the global land surface and are likely to increase even further.
View details for DOI 10.1038/nature13139
View details for PubMedID 24739971
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Predicting biodiversity change and averting collapse in agricultural landscapes
NATURE
2014; 509 (7499): 213-?
Abstract
The equilibrium theory of island biogeography is the basis for estimating extinction rates and a pillar of conservation science. The default strategy for conserving biodiversity is the designation of nature reserves, treated as islands in an inhospitable sea of human activity. Despite the profound influence of islands on conservation theory and practice, their mainland analogues, forest fragments in human-dominated landscapes, consistently defy expected biodiversity patterns based on island biogeography theory. Countryside biogeography is an alternative framework, which recognizes that the fate of the world's wildlife will be decided largely by the hospitality of agricultural or countryside ecosystems. Here we directly test these biogeographic theories by comparing a Neotropical countryside ecosystem with a nearby island ecosystem, and show that each supports similar bat biodiversity in fundamentally different ways. The island ecosystem conforms to island biogeographic predictions of bat species loss, in which the water matrix is not habitat. In contrast, the countryside ecosystem has high species richness and evenness across forest reserves and smaller forest fragments. Relative to forest reserves and fragments, deforested countryside habitat supports a less species-rich, yet equally even, bat assemblage. Moreover, the bat assemblage associated with deforested habitat is compositionally novel because of predictable changes in abundances by many species using human-made habitat. Finally, we perform a global meta-analysis of bat biogeographic studies, spanning more than 700 species. It generalizes our findings, showing that separate biogeographic theories for countryside and island ecosystems are necessary. A theory of countryside biogeography is essential to conservation strategy in the agricultural ecosystems that comprise roughly half of the global land surface and are likely to increase even further.
View details for DOI 10.1038/nature13139
View details for Web of Science ID 000335454300036
View details for PubMedID 24739971
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Countryside biogeography of Neotropical reptiles and amphibians
ECOLOGY
2014; 95 (4): 856-870
Abstract
The future of biodiversity and ecosystem services depends largely on the capacity of human-dominated ecosystems to support them, yet this capacity remains largely unknown. Using the framework of countryside biogeography, and working in the Las Cruces system of Coto Brus, Costa Rica, we assessed reptile and amphibian assemblages within four habitats that typify much of the Neotropics: sun coffee plantations (12 sites), pasture (12 sites), remnant forest elements (12 sites), and a larger, contiguous protected forest (3 sites in one forest). Through analysis of 1678 captures of 67 species, we draw four primary conclusions. First, we found that the majority of reptile (60%) and amphibian (70%) species in this study used an array of habitat types, including coffee plantations and actively grazed pastures. Second, we found that coffee plantations and pastures hosted rich, albeit different and less dense, reptile and amphibian biodiversity relative to the 326-ha Las Cruces Forest Reserve and neighboring forest elements. Third, we found that the small ribbons of "countryside forest elements" weaving through farmland collectively increased the effective size of a 326-ha local forest reserve 16-fold for reptiles and 14-fold for amphibians within our 236-km2 study area. Therefore, countryside forest elements, often too small for most remote sensing techniques to identify, are contributing -95% of the available habitat for forest-dependent reptiles and amphibians in our largely human-dominated study region. Fourth, we found large and pond-reproducing amphibians to prefer human-made habitats, whereas small, stream-reproducing, and directly developing species are more dependent on forest elements. Our investigation demonstrates that tropical farming landscapes can support substantial reptile and amphibian biodiversity. Our approach provides a framework for estimating the conservation value of the complex working landscapes that constitute roughly half of the global land surface, and which are experiencing intensification pressure worldwide.
View details for DOI 10.1890/12-2017.1
View details for Web of Science ID 000334573600007
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Introducing the Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity's Life Support Systems in the 21 st Century: Information for Policy Makers
ANTHROPOCENE REVIEW
2014; 1 (1): 78–109
View details for DOI 10.1177/2053019613516290
View details for Web of Science ID 000447092100009
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Cascading effects of insectivorous birds and bats in tropical coffee plantations
ECOLOGY
2014; 95 (4): 1065-1074
Abstract
The loss of apex predators is known to have reverberating consequences for ecosystems, but how changes in broader predator assemblages affect vital ecosystem functions and services is largely unknown. Predators and their prey form complex interaction networks, in which predators consume not only herbivores but also other predators. Resolving these interactions will be essential for predicting changes in many important ecosystem functions, such as the control of damaging crop pests. Here, we examine how birds, bats, and arthropods interact to determine herbivorous arthropod abundance and leaf damage in Costa Rican coffee plantations. In an exclosure experiment, we found that birds and bats reduced non-flying arthropod abundance by -35% and -25%, respectively. In contrast, birds and bats increased the abundance of flying arthropods, probably by consuming spiders. The frequency of this intraguild predation differed between birds and bats, with cascading consequences for coffee shrubs. Excluding birds caused a greater increase in herbivorous arthropod abundance than excluding bats, leading to increased coffee leaf damage. Excluding bats caused an increase in spiders and other predatory arthropods, increasing the ratio of predators to herbivores in the arthropod community. Bats, therefore, did not provide benefits to coffee plants. Leaf damage on coffee was low, and probably did not affect coffee yields. Bird-mediated control of herbivores, however, may aid coffee shrubs in the long-term by preventing pest outbreaks. Regardless, our results demonstrate how complex, cascading interactions between predators and herbivores may impact plants and people.
View details for DOI 10.1890/13-1012.1
View details for Web of Science ID 000334573600024
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The forest has a story: cultural ecosystem services in Kona, Hawai'i
ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY
2014; 19 (3)
View details for DOI 10.5751/ES-06893-190355
View details for Web of Science ID 000343247200053
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Molecular diagnosis of bird-mediated pest consumption in tropical farmland.
SpringerPlus
2014; 3: 630-?
Abstract
Biodiversity loss will likely have surprising and dramatic consequences for human wellbeing. Identifying species that benefit society represents a critical first step towards predicting the consequences of biodiversity loss. Though natural predators prevent billions of dollars in agricultural pest damage annually, characterizing which predators consume pests has proven challenging. Emerging molecular techniques may illuminate these interactions. In the countryside of Costa Rica, we identified avian predators of coffee's most damaging insect pest, the coffee berry borer beetle (Coleoptera:Scolytidae Hypothenemus hampeii), by assaying 1430 fecal samples of 108 bird species for borer DNA. While feeding trials confirmed the efficacy of our approach, detection rates were low. Nevertheless, we identified six species that consume the borer. These species had narrow diet breadths, thin bills, and short wings; traits shared with borer predators in other systems. Borer predators were not threatened; therefore, safeguarding pest control necessitates managing species beyond those at risk of regional extinction by maintaining populations in farmland habitats. Generally, our results demonstrate potential for pairing molecular methods with ecological analyses to yield novel insights into species interactions.
View details for DOI 10.1186/2193-1801-3-630
View details for PubMedID 25392800
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4216319
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Molecular diagnosis of bird-mediated pest consumption in tropical farmland.
SpringerPlus
2014; 3: 630-?
Abstract
Biodiversity loss will likely have surprising and dramatic consequences for human wellbeing. Identifying species that benefit society represents a critical first step towards predicting the consequences of biodiversity loss. Though natural predators prevent billions of dollars in agricultural pest damage annually, characterizing which predators consume pests has proven challenging. Emerging molecular techniques may illuminate these interactions. In the countryside of Costa Rica, we identified avian predators of coffee's most damaging insect pest, the coffee berry borer beetle (Coleoptera:Scolytidae Hypothenemus hampeii), by assaying 1430 fecal samples of 108 bird species for borer DNA. While feeding trials confirmed the efficacy of our approach, detection rates were low. Nevertheless, we identified six species that consume the borer. These species had narrow diet breadths, thin bills, and short wings; traits shared with borer predators in other systems. Borer predators were not threatened; therefore, safeguarding pest control necessitates managing species beyond those at risk of regional extinction by maintaining populations in farmland habitats. Generally, our results demonstrate potential for pairing molecular methods with ecological analyses to yield novel insights into species interactions.
View details for DOI 10.1186/2193-1801-3-630
View details for PubMedID 25392800
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4216319
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Forest bolsters bird abundance, pest control and coffee yield
ECOLOGY LETTERS
2013; 16 (11): 1339-1347
Abstract
Efforts to maximise crop yields are fuelling agricultural intensification, exacerbating the biodiversity crisis. Low-intensity agricultural practices, however, may not sacrifice yields if they support biodiversity-driven ecosystem services. We quantified the value native predators provide to farmers by consuming coffee's most damaging insect pest, the coffee berry borer beetle (Hypothenemus hampei). Our experiments in Costa Rica showed birds reduced infestation by ~ 50%, bats played a marginal role, and farmland forest cover increased pest removal. We identified borer-consuming bird species by assaying faeces for borer DNA and found higher borer-predator abundances on more forested plantations. Our coarse estimate is that forest patches doubled pest control over 230 km2 by providing habitat for ~ 55 000 borer-consuming birds. These pest-control services prevented US$75-US$310 ha-year(-1) in damage, a benefit per plantation on par with the average annual income of a Costa Rican citizen. Retaining forest and accounting for pest control demonstrates a win-win for biodiversity and coffee farmers.
View details for DOI 10.1111/ele.12173
View details for Web of Science ID 000325976500002
View details for PubMedID 23981013
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Benefits, costs, and livelihood implications of a regional payment for ecosystem service program
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2013; 110 (41): 16681-16686
Abstract
Despite broad interest in using payment for ecosystem services to promote changes in the use of natural capital, there are few expost assessments of impacts of payment for ecosystem services programs on ecosystem service provision, program cost, and changes in livelihoods resulting from program participation. In this paper, we evaluate the Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program in Beijing, China, and associated changes in service providers' livelihood activities. The PLDL is a land use conversion program that aims to protect water quality and quantity for the only surface water reservoir that serves Beijing, China's capital city with nearly 20 million residents. Our analysis integrates hydrologic data with household survey data and shows that the PLDL generates benefits of improved water quantity and quality that exceed the costs of reduced agricultural output. The PLDL has an overall benefit-cost ratio of 1.5, and both downstream beneficiaries and upstream providers gain from the program. Household data show that changes in livelihood activities may offset some of the desired effects of the program through increased expenditures on agricultural fertilizers. Overall, however, reductions in fertilizer leaching from land use change dominate so that the program still has a positive net impact on water quality. This program is a successful example of water users paying upstream landholders to improve water quantity and quality through land use change. Program evaluation also highlights the importance of considering behavioral changes by program participants.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1312324110
View details for Web of Science ID 000325395600085
View details for PubMedID 24003160
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3799363
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Benefits, costs, and livelihood implications of a regional payment for ecosystem service program
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2013; 110 (41): 16681-16686
Abstract
Despite broad interest in using payment for ecosystem services to promote changes in the use of natural capital, there are few expost assessments of impacts of payment for ecosystem services programs on ecosystem service provision, program cost, and changes in livelihoods resulting from program participation. In this paper, we evaluate the Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program in Beijing, China, and associated changes in service providers' livelihood activities. The PLDL is a land use conversion program that aims to protect water quality and quantity for the only surface water reservoir that serves Beijing, China's capital city with nearly 20 million residents. Our analysis integrates hydrologic data with household survey data and shows that the PLDL generates benefits of improved water quantity and quality that exceed the costs of reduced agricultural output. The PLDL has an overall benefit-cost ratio of 1.5, and both downstream beneficiaries and upstream providers gain from the program. Household data show that changes in livelihood activities may offset some of the desired effects of the program through increased expenditures on agricultural fertilizers. Overall, however, reductions in fertilizer leaching from land use change dominate so that the program still has a positive net impact on water quality. This program is a successful example of water users paying upstream landholders to improve water quantity and quality through land use change. Program evaluation also highlights the importance of considering behavioral changes by program participants.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1312324110
View details for Web of Science ID 000325395600085
View details for PubMedID 24003160
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3799363
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Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems: modeling and policy implications
ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
2013; 18: 111-132
View details for DOI 10.1017/S1355770X12000460
View details for Web of Science ID 000316190400001
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Forest Restoration and Parasitoid Wasp Communities in Montane Hawai'i
PLOS ONE
2013; 8 (3)
Abstract
Globally, most restoration efforts focus on re-creating the physical structure (flora or physical features) of a target ecosystem with the assumption that other ecosystem components will follow. Here we investigate that assumption by documenting biogeographical patterns in an important invertebrate taxon, the parasitoid wasp family Ichneumonidae, in a recently reforested Hawaiian landscape. Specifically, we test the influence of (1) planting configurations (corridors versus patches), (2) vegetation age, (3) distance from mature native forest, (4) surrounding tree cover, and (5) plant community composition on ichneumonid richness, abundance, and composition. We sampled over 7,000 wasps, 96.5% of which were not native to Hawai'i. We found greater relative richness and abundance of ichneumonids, and substantially different communities, in restored areas compared to mature forest and abandoned pasturelands. Non-native ichneumonids drive these differences; restored areas and native forest did not differ in native ichneumonid abundance. Among restored areas, ichneumonid communities did not differ by planting age or configuration. As tree cover increased within 120 m of a sampling point, ichneumonid community composition increasingly resembled that found in native forest. Similarly, native ichneumonid abundance increased with proximity to native forest. Our results suggest that restoration plantings, if situated near target forest ecosystems and in areas with higher local tree cover, can facilitate restoration of native fauna even in a highly invaded system.
View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0059356
View details for Web of Science ID 000317562100115
View details for PubMedID 23527171
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3601962
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Social Norms and Global Environmental Challenges: The Complex Interaction of Behaviors, Values, and Policy
BIOSCIENCE
2013; 63 (3): 164-175
Abstract
Government policies are needed when people's behaviors fail to deliver the public good. Those policies will be most effective if they can stimulate long-term changes in beliefs and norms, creating and reinforcing the behaviors needed to solidify and extend the public good.It is often the short-term acceptability of potential policies, rather than their longer-term efficacy, that determines their scope and deployment. The policy process should consider both time scales. The academy, however, has provided insufficient insight on the coevolution of social norms and different policy instruments, thus compromising the capacity of decision makers to craft effective solutions to the society's most intractable environmental problems. Life scientists could make fundamental contributions to this agenda through targeted research on the emergence of social norms.
View details for DOI 10.1525/bio.2013.63.3.5
View details for Web of Science ID 000322048200005
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4136381
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Social Norms and Global Environmental Challenges: The Complex Interaction of Behaviors, Values, and Policy.
Bioscience
2013; 63 (3): 164-175
Abstract
Government policies are needed when people's behaviors fail to deliver the public good. Those policies will be most effective if they can stimulate long-term changes in beliefs and norms, creating and reinforcing the behaviors needed to solidify and extend the public good.It is often the short-term acceptability of potential policies, rather than their longer-term efficacy, that determines their scope and deployment. The policy process should consider both time scales. The academy, however, has provided insufficient insight on the coevolution of social norms and different policy instruments, thus compromising the capacity of decision makers to craft effective solutions to the society's most intractable environmental problems. Life scientists could make fundamental contributions to this agenda through targeted research on the emergence of social norms.
View details for DOI 10.1525/bio.2013.63.3.5
View details for PubMedID 25143635
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC4136381
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Restoring Native Forest Understory: The Influence of Ferns and Light in a Hawaiian Experiment
SUSTAINABILITY
2013; 5 (3): 1317-1339
View details for DOI 10.3390/su5031317
View details for Web of Science ID 000324047700030
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Forest restoration and parasitoid wasp communities in montane Hawai'i.
PloS one
2013; 8 (3)
Abstract
Globally, most restoration efforts focus on re-creating the physical structure (flora or physical features) of a target ecosystem with the assumption that other ecosystem components will follow. Here we investigate that assumption by documenting biogeographical patterns in an important invertebrate taxon, the parasitoid wasp family Ichneumonidae, in a recently reforested Hawaiian landscape. Specifically, we test the influence of (1) planting configurations (corridors versus patches), (2) vegetation age, (3) distance from mature native forest, (4) surrounding tree cover, and (5) plant community composition on ichneumonid richness, abundance, and composition. We sampled over 7,000 wasps, 96.5% of which were not native to Hawai'i. We found greater relative richness and abundance of ichneumonids, and substantially different communities, in restored areas compared to mature forest and abandoned pasturelands. Non-native ichneumonids drive these differences; restored areas and native forest did not differ in native ichneumonid abundance. Among restored areas, ichneumonid communities did not differ by planting age or configuration. As tree cover increased within 120 m of a sampling point, ichneumonid community composition increasingly resembled that found in native forest. Similarly, native ichneumonid abundance increased with proximity to native forest. Our results suggest that restoration plantings, if situated near target forest ecosystems and in areas with higher local tree cover, can facilitate restoration of native fauna even in a highly invaded system.
View details for DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0059356
View details for PubMedID 23527171
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3601962
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Asset endowments, non-farm participation and local separability in remote rural China
CHINA AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
2013; 5 (1): 66-88
View details for DOI 10.1108/17561371311294766
View details for Web of Science ID 000319024300004
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Intensive agriculture erodes beta-diversity at large scales
ECOLOGY LETTERS
2012; 15 (9): 963-970
Abstract
Biodiversity is declining from unprecedented land conversions that replace diverse, low-intensity agriculture with vast expanses under homogeneous, intensive production. Despite documented losses of species richness, consequences for β-diversity, changes in community composition between sites, are largely unknown, especially in the tropics. Using a 10-year data set on Costa Rican birds, we find that low-intensity agriculture sustained β-diversity across large scales on a par with forest. In high-intensity agriculture, low local (α) diversity inflated β-diversity as a statistical artefact. Therefore, at small spatial scales, intensive agriculture appeared to retain β-diversity. Unlike in forest or low-intensity systems, however, high-intensity agriculture also homogenised vegetation structure over large distances, thereby decoupling the fundamental ecological pattern of bird communities changing with geographical distance. This ~40% decline in species turnover indicates a significant decline in β-diversity at large spatial scales. These findings point the way towards multi-functional agricultural systems that maintain agricultural productivity while simultaneously conserving biodiversity.
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01815.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000306475600005
View details for PubMedID 22727063
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Land cover effects on groundwater recharge in the tropics: ecohydrologic mechanisms
ECOHYDROLOGY
2012; 5 (4): 435-444
View details for DOI 10.1002/eco.236
View details for Web of Science ID 000307882700007
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Improving estimates of biodiversity loss
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
2012; 151 (1): 32-34
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2012.01.069
View details for Web of Science ID 000306042600008
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Securing natural capital and expanding equity to rescale civilization
NATURE
2012; 486 (7401): 68-73
Abstract
In biophysical terms, humanity has never been moving faster nor further from sustainability than it is now. Our increasing population size and per capita impacts are severely testing the ability of Earth to provide for peoples' most basic needs. Awareness of these circumstances has grown tremendously, as has the sophistication of efforts to address them. But the complexity of the challenge remains daunting. We explore prospects for transformative change in three critical areas of sustainable development: achieving a sustainable population size and securing vital natural capital, both in part through reducing inequity, and strengthening the societal leadership of academia.
View details for DOI 10.1038/nature11157
View details for Web of Science ID 000304854000028
View details for PubMedID 22678281
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Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity
NATURE
2012; 486 (7401): 59-67
Abstract
The most unique feature of Earth is the existence of life, and the most extraordinary feature of life is its diversity. Approximately 9 million types of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth. So, too, do 7 billion people. Two decades ago, at the first Earth Summit, the vast majority of the world's nations declared that human actions were dismantling the Earth's ecosystems, eliminating genes, species and biological traits at an alarming rate. This observation led to the question of how such loss of biological diversity will alter the functioning of ecosystems and their ability to provide society with the goods and services needed to prosper.
View details for DOI 10.1038/nature11148
View details for Web of Science ID 000304854000027
View details for PubMedID 22678280
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Potential evapotranspiration from forest and pasture in the tropics: A case study in Kona, Hawai ' i
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
2012; 440: 52-61
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.Thydrol.2012.03.014
View details for Web of Science ID 000304514000005
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Integrating ecosystem-service tradeoffs into land-use decisions
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2012; 109 (19): 7565-7570
Abstract
Recent high-profile efforts have called for integrating ecosystem-service values into important societal decisions, but there are few demonstrations of this approach in practice. We quantified ecosystem-service values to help the largest private landowner in Hawaii, Kamehameha Schools, design a land-use development plan that balances multiple private and public values on its North Shore land holdings (Island of O'ahu) of ∼10,600 ha. We used the InVEST software tool to evaluate the environmental and financial implications of seven planning scenarios encompassing contrasting land-use combinations including biofuel feedstocks, food crops, forestry, livestock, and residential development. All scenarios had positive financial return relative to the status quo of negative return. However, tradeoffs existed between carbon storage and water quality as well as between environmental improvement and financial return. Based on this analysis and community input, Kamehameha Schools is implementing a plan to support diversified agriculture and forestry. This plan generates a positive financial return ($10.9 million) and improved carbon storage (0.5% increase relative to status quo) with negative relative effects on water quality (15.4% increase in potential nitrogen export relative to status quo). The effects on water quality could be mitigated partially (reduced to a 4.9% increase in potential nitrogen export) by establishing vegetation buffers on agricultural fields. This plan contributes to policy goals for climate change mitigation, food security, and diversifying rural economic opportunities. More broadly, our approach illustrates how information can help guide local land-use decisions that involve tradeoffs between private and public interests.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1201040109
View details for Web of Science ID 000304090600086
View details for PubMedID 22529388
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3358905
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Does household composition matter? The impact of the Grain for Green Program on rural livelihoods in China
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
2012; 75: 152-160
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.01.019
View details for Web of Science ID 000301765900018
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The impacts of nature experience on human cognitive function and mental health
YEAR IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2012; 1249: 118-136
Abstract
Scholars spanning a variety of disciplines have studied the ways in which contact with natural environments may impact human well-being. We review the effects of such nature experience on human cognitive function and mental health, synthesizing work from environmental psychology, urban planning, the medical literature, and landscape aesthetics. We provide an overview of the prevailing explanatory theories of these effects, the ways in which exposure to nature has been considered, and the role that individuals' preferences for nature may play in the impact of the environment on psychological functioning. Drawing from the highly productive but disparate programs of research in this area, we conclude by proposing a system of categorization for different types of nature experience. We also outline key questions for future work, including further inquiry into which elements of the natural environment may have impacts on cognitive function and mental health; what the most effective type, duration, and frequency of contact may be; and what the possible neural mechanisms are that could be responsible for the documented effects.
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06400.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000305677800009
View details for PubMedID 22320203
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Does Out-migration Reshape Rural Households' Livelihood Capitals in the Source Communities? Recent Evidence from Western China
ASIAN AND PACIFIC MIGRATION JOURNAL
2012; 21 (1): 1-30
View details for Web of Science ID 000303364000001
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Water funds and payments for ecosystem services: practice learns from theory and theory can learn from practice
ORYX
2012; 46 (1): 55-63
View details for DOI 10.1017/S0030605311001050
View details for Web of Science ID 000300793200011
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Resilience and stability in bird guilds across tropical countryside
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2011; 108 (52): 21134-21139
Abstract
The consequences of biodiversity decline in intensified agricultural landscapes hinge on surviving biotic assemblages. Maintaining crucial ecosystem processes and services requires resilience to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. However, the resilience and stability of surviving biological communities remain poorly quantified. From a 10-y dataset comprising 2,880 bird censuses across a land-use gradient, we present three key findings concerning the resilience and stability of Costa Rican bird communities. First, seed dispersing, insect eating, and pollinating guilds were more resilient to low-intensity land use than high-intensity land use. Compared with forest assemblages, bird abundance, species richness, and diversity were all ~15% lower in low-intensity land use and ~50% lower in high-intensity land use. Second, patterns in species richness generally correlated with patterns in stability: guilds exhibited less variation in abundance in low-intensity land use than in high-intensity land use. Finally, interspecific differences in reaction to environmental change (response diversity) and possibly the portfolio effect, but not negative covariance of species abundances, conferred resilience and stability. These findings point to the changes needed in agricultural production practices in the tropics to better sustain bird communities and, possibly, the functional and service roles that they play.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1118276108
View details for Web of Science ID 000298479900055
View details for PubMedID 22160726
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3248489
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Conservation: Limits of Land Sparing
SCIENCE
2011; 334 (6056): 593
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.334.6056.593-a
View details for Web of Science ID 000296494700021
View details for PubMedID 22053026
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Reconnecting to the Biosphere
AMBIO
2011; 40 (7): 719-738
Abstract
Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social-ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social-ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social-ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere--a global sustainability agenda for humanity.
View details for DOI 10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y
View details for Web of Science ID 000298500100002
View details for PubMedID 22338712
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3357749
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Predictive model for sustaining biodiversity in tropical countryside
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2011; 108 (39): 16313-16316
Abstract
Growing demand for food, fuel, and fiber is driving the intensification and expansion of agricultural land through a corresponding displacement of native woodland, savanna, and shrubland. In the wake of this displacement, it is clear that farmland can support biodiversity through preservation of important ecosystem elements at a fine scale. However, how much biodiversity can be sustained and with what tradeoffs for production are open questions. Using a well-studied tropical ecosystem in Costa Rica, we develop an empirically based model for quantifying the "wildlife-friendliness" of farmland for native birds. Some 80% of the 166 mist-netted species depend on fine-scale countryside forest elements (≤ 60-m-wide clusters of trees, typically of variable length and width) that weave through farmland along hilltops, valleys, rivers, roads, and property borders. Our model predicts with ∼75% accuracy the bird community composition of any part of the landscape. We find conservation value in small (≤ 20 m wide) clusters of trees and somewhat larger (≤ 60 m wide) forest remnants to provide substantial support for biodiversity beyond the borders of tropical forest reserves. Within the study area, forest elements on farms nearly double the effective size of the local forest reserve, providing seminatural habitats for bird species typically associated with the forest. Our findings provide a basis for estimating and sustaining biodiversity in farming systems through managing fine-scale ecosystem elements and, more broadly, informing ecosystem service analyses, biodiversity action plans, and regional land use strategies.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1111687108
View details for Web of Science ID 000295255300040
View details for PubMedID 21911396
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3182680
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Rural household income and inequality under the Sloping Land Conversion Program in western China
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2011; 108 (19): 7721-7726
Abstract
As payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs proliferate globally, assessing their impact upon households' income and livelihood patterns is critical. The Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) is an exceptional PES program, in terms of its ambitious biophysical and socioeconomic objectives, large geographic scale, numbers of people directly affected, and duration of operation. The SLCP has now operated in the poor mountainous areas in China for 10 y and offers a unique opportunity for policy evaluation. Using survey data on rural households' livelihoods in the southern mountain area in Zhouzhi County, Shaanxi Province, we carry out a statistical analysis of the effects of PES and other factors on rural household income. We analyze the extent of income inequality and compare the socio-demographic features and household income of households participating in the SLCP with those that did not. Our statistical analysis shows that participation in SLCP has significant positive impacts upon household income, especially for low- and medium-income households; however, participation also has some negative impacts on the low- and medium-income households. Overall, income inequality is less among households participating in the SLCP than among those that do not after 7 y of the PES program. Different income sources have different effects on Gini statistics; in particular, wage income has opposite effects on income inequality for the participating and nonparticipating households. We find, however, that the SLCP has not increased the transfer of labor toward nonfarming activities in the survey site, as the government expected.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1101018108
View details for Web of Science ID 000290439500022
View details for PubMedID 21518856
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC3093530
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Mainstreaming natural capital into decisions
NATURAL CAPITAL: THEORY & PRACTICE OF MAPPING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
2011: 3–14
View details for Web of Science ID 000355681600002
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Terrestrial biodiversity
NATURAL CAPITAL: THEORY & PRACTICE OF MAPPING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
2011: 229–45
View details for Web of Science ID 000355681600014
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Solutions to environmental threats.
Scientific American
2010; 302 (4): 58-60
View details for PubMedID 20349575
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Forest structure influences on rainfall partitioning and cloud interception: A comparison of native forest sites in Kona, Hawai'i
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
2010; 150 (2): 265-275
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.11.011
View details for Web of Science ID 000274871800013
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Detecting changes in habitat-scale bee foraging in a tropical fragmented landscape using stable isotopes
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
2009; 258 (9): 1846-1855
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.02.027
View details for Web of Science ID 000271093200004
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Environment. Looming global-scale failures and missing institutions.
Science
2009; 325 (5946): 1345-1346
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1175325
View details for PubMedID 19745137
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Looming Global-Scale Failures and Missing Institutions
SCIENCE
2009; 325 (5946): 1345-1346
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1175325
View details for Web of Science ID 000269699100020
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Fostering constructive debate: a reply to Chappell et al.
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2009; 7 (4): 84
View details for DOI 10.1890/09.WB.012
View details for Web of Science ID 000265971200016
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Agricultural landscapes remain an essential front for biodiversity conservation Reply
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2009; 106 (14): E35
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0901856106
View details for Web of Science ID 000264967500106
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Modeling multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, commodity production, and tradeoffs at landscape scales
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2009; 7 (1): 4-11
View details for DOI 10.1890/080023
View details for Web of Science ID 000262934500002
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Ecosystem services in decision making: time to deliver
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2009; 7 (1): 21-28
View details for DOI 10.1890/080025
View details for Web of Science ID 000262934500004
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The payoff of conservation investments in tropical countryside
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2008; 105 (49): 19342-19347
Abstract
The future of biodiversity and ecosystem services hinges on harmonizing agricultural production and conservation, yet there is no planning algorithm for predicting the efficacy of conservation investments in farmland. We present a conservation planning framework for countryside (working agricultural landscapes) that calculates the production and conservation benefits to the current baseline of incremental investments. Our framework is analogous to the use of reserve design algorithms. Unlike much countryside modeling, our framework is designed for application in data-limited contexts, which are prevalent. We apply our framework to quantify the payoff for Costa Rican birds of changing farm plot and border vegetation. We show that installing windbreaks of native vegetation enhances both bird diversity and farm income, especially when complementing certain crop types. We make predictions that differ from those of approaches currently applied to agri-environment planning,: e.g., although habitat with trees has lower local species richness than farm plot habitats (1-44% lower), replacing any plot habitat with trees should boost regional richness considerably. Our planning framework reveals the small, targeted changes on farms that can make big differences for biodiversity.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0810522105
View details for Web of Science ID 000261706600058
View details for PubMedID 19036931
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC2614763
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Using return-on-investment to guide restoration: a case study from Hawaii
CONSERVATION LETTERS
2008; 1 (5): 236-243
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2008.00031.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000207587200005
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Sustaining biodiversity in ancient tropical countryside
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2008; 105 (46): 17852-17854
Abstract
With intensifying demands for food and biofuels, a critical threat to biodiversity is agricultural expansion into native tropical ecosystems. Tropical agriculture, particularly intensive agriculture, often supports few native organisms, and consequently has been largely overlooked in conservation planning; yet, recent work in the Neotropics demonstrates that tropical agriculture with certain features can support significant biodiversity, decades after conversion to farmland. It remains unknown whether this conservation value can be sustained for centuries to millennia. Here, we quantify the bird diversity affiliated with agricultural systems in southwest India, a region continuously cultivated for >2,000 years. We show that arecanut palm (Areca catechu) production systems retain 90% of the bird species associated with regional native forest. Two factors promote this high conservation value. First, the system involves intercropping with multiple, usually woody, understory species and, thus, has high vertical structural complexity that is positively correlated with bird species richness. Second, the system encompasses nearby forests, where large quantities of leaf litter are extracted for mulch. The preservation of these forests on productive land traces back to their value in supplying inputs to arecanut cultivation. The long-term biodiversity value of an agricultural ecosystem has not been documented in South and Southeast Asia. Our findings open a new conservation opportunity for this imperiled region that may well extend to other crops. Some of these working lands may be able to sustain native species over long-time scales, indicating that conservation investments in agriculture today could pay off for people and for nature.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0808874105
View details for Web of Science ID 000261225600052
View details for PubMedID 18981411
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC2577706
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Should agricultural policies encourage land sparing or wildlife-friendly farming?
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2008; 6 (7): 382-387
View details for DOI 10.1890/070019
View details for Web of Science ID 000259308000020
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Ecosystem services: From theory to implementation
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2008; 105 (28): 9455-9456
Abstract
Around the world, leaders are increasingly recognizing ecosystems as natural capital assets that supply life-support services of tremendous value. The challenge is to turn this recognition into incentives and institutions that will guide wise investments in natural capital, on a large scale. Advances are required on three key fronts, each featured here: the science of ecosystem production functions and service mapping; the design of appropriate finance, policy, and governance systems; and the art of implementing these in diverse biophysical and social contexts. Scientific understanding of ecosystem production functions is improving rapidly but remains a limiting factor in incorporating natural capital into decisions, via systems of national accounting and other mechanisms. Novel institutional structures are being established for a broad array of services and places, creating a need and opportunity for systematic assessment of their scope and limitations. Finally, it is clear that formal sharing of experience, and defining of priorities for future work, could greatly accelerate the rate of innovation and uptake of new approaches.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0804960105
View details for Web of Science ID 000257784700003
View details for PubMedID 18621697
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC2474530
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Field evidence that ecosystem service projects support biodiversity and diversify options
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2008; 105 (27): 9445-9448
Abstract
Ecosystem service approaches to conservation are being championed as a new strategy for conservation, under the hypothesis that they will broaden and deepen support for biodiversity protection. Where traditional approaches focus on setting aside land by purchasing property rights, ecosystem service approaches aim to engage a much wider range of places, people, policies, and financial resources in conservation. This is particularly important given projected intensification of human impacts, with rapid growth in population size and individual aspirations. Here we use field research on 34 ecosystem service (ES) projects and 26 traditional biodiversity (BD) projects from the Western Hemisphere to test whether ecosystem service approaches show signs of realizing their putative potential. We find that the ES projects attract on average more than four times as much funding through greater corporate sponsorship and use of a wider variety of finance tools than BD projects. ES projects are also more likely to encompass working landscapes and the people in them. We also show that, despite previous concern, ES projects not only expand opportunities for conservation, but they are no less likely than BD projects to include or create protected areas. Moreover, they do not draw down limited financial resources for conservation but rather engage a more diverse set of funders. We also found, however, that monitoring of conservation outcomes in both cases is so infrequent that it is impossible to assess the effectiveness of either ES or BD approaches.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0800208105
View details for Web of Science ID 000257645400056
View details for PubMedID 18591667
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC2453743
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Inadequate assessment of the ecosystem service rationale for conservation: Reply to Ghazoul
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2008; 22 (3): 795-798
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00940.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000256612800036
View details for PubMedID 18577093
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Diversity, natural history and conservation of amphibians and reptiles from the San Vito Region, southwestern Costa Rica
REVISTA DE BIOLOGIA TROPICAL
2008; 56 (2): 755-778
Abstract
We present an inventory of the amphibians and reptiles of the San Vito de Coto Brus region, including the Las Cruces Biological Station, in southern Costa Rica, which is the result of a survey of the herpetofauna occurring in mountain forest fragments, pastures, coffee plantations, and other disturbed areas. We found 67 species, included 26 species of amphibians and of 41 of reptiles. We describe the distribution patterns of the community on the basis of the life zones, elevation, fragmentation, and degree of anthropogenic impact. We also provide some nouvelle data on the systematics of some select taxa, their geographical ranges, microhabitats, activity, and other relevant ecological and natural history features. Finally, we comment on the present conservation status of the herpetofauna in the region. Previous literature and collection records indicate a higher number of species occurring in this area, which suggests that some declines have occurred, especially of amphibians, in last decades.
View details for Web of Science ID 000259618700027
View details for PubMedID 19256442
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The effects of forest fragmentation on bee communities in tropical countryside
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
2008; 45 (3): 773-783
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01412.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000255464600005
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Assessing the conservation value of a human-dominated island landscape: Plant diversity in Hawaii
BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION
2008; 17 (7): 1765-1781
View details for DOI 10.1007/s10531-008-9383-7
View details for Web of Science ID 000257201000014
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Optimal design of agricultural landscapes for pollination services
CONSERVATION LETTERS
2008; 1 (1): 27-36
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2008.00004.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000207586800005
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Birds as agents of seed dispersal in a human-dominated landscape in southern Costa Rica
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
2008; 141 (2): 536-544
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2007.11.008
View details for Web of Science ID 000254599900021
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Institutional incentives for managing the landscape: Inducing cooperation for the production of ecosystem services
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
2007; 64 (2): 333-343
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.01.012
View details for Web of Science ID 000252264600011
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Ecosystem-service science and the way forward for conservation
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2007; 21 (6): 1383-1384
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00821.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000251764200001
View details for PubMedID 18173455
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Consumption, investment, and future well-being: Reply to Daly et al.
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2007; 21 (5): 1363-1365
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007-00783.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000250008700030
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Satellite detection of bird communities in tropical countryside
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
2007; 17 (5): 1499-1510
Abstract
The future of biodiversity hinges partly on realizing the potentially high conservation value of human-dominated countryside. The characteristics of the countryside that promote biodiversity preservation remain poorly understood, however, particularly at the fine scales at which individual farmers tend to make land use decisions. To address this problem, we explored the use of a rapid remote sensing method for estimating bird community composition in tropical countryside, using a two-step process. First, we asked how fine-grained variation in land cover affected community composition. Second, we determined whether the observed changes in community composition correlated with three easily accessible remote sensing metrics (wetness, greenness, and brightness), derived from performing a tasseled-cap transformation on a Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus image. As a comparison, we also examined whether the most commonly used remote sensing indicator in ecology, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), correlated with community composition. We worked within an agricultural landscape in southern Costa Rica, where the land comprised a complex and highly heterogeneous mosaic of remnant native vegetation, pasture, coffee cultivation, and other crops. In this region, we selected 12 study sites (each < 60 ha) that encompassed the range of available land cover possibilities in the countryside. Within each site, we surveyed bird communities within all major land cover types, and we conducted detailed field mapping of land cover. We found that the number of forest-affiliated species increased with forest cover and decreased with residential area across sites. Conversely, the number of agriculture-affiliated species using forest increased with land area devoted to agricultural and residential uses. Interestingly, we found that the wetness and brightness metrics predicted the number of forest- and agriculture-affiliated species within a site as well as did detailed field-generated maps of land cover. In contrast, NDVI and the closely correlated greenness metric did not correlate with land cover or with bird communities. Our study shows the strong potential of the tasseled-cap transformation as a tool for assessing the conservation value of countryside for biodiversity.
View details for Web of Science ID 000248265700019
View details for PubMedID 17708224
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Persistence of forest birds in the Costa Rican agricultural countryside
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2007; 21 (2): 482-494
Abstract
Understanding the persistence mechanisms of tropical forest species in human-dominated landscapes is a fundamental challenge of tropical ecology and conservation. Many species, including more than half of Costa Rica's native land birds, use mostly deforested agricultural countryside, but how they do so is poorly known. Do they commute regularly to forest or can some species survive in this human-dominated landscape year-round? Using radiotelemetry, we detailed the habitat use, movement, foraging, and nesting patterns of three bird species, Catharus aurantiirostris, Tangara icterocephala, and Turdus assimilis, by obtaining 8101 locations from 156 individuals. We chose forest birds that varied in their vulnerability to deforestation and were representative of the species found both in forest and human-dominated landscapes. Our study species did not commute from extensive forest; rather, they fed and bred in the agricultural countryside. Nevertheless, T. icterocephala and T. assimilis, which are more habitat sensitive, were highly dependent on the remaining trees. Although trees constituted only 11% of land cover, these birds spent 69% to 85% of their time in them. Breeding success of C. aurntiirostris and T. icterocephala in deforested habitats was not different than in forest remnants, where T. assimilis experienced reduced breeding success. Although this suggests an ecological trap for T. assimilis, higher fledgling survival in forest remnants may make up for lower productivity. Tropical countryside has high potential conservation value, which can be enhanced with even modest increases in tree cover. Our findings have applicability to many human-dominated tropical areas that have the potential to conserve substantial biodiversity if appropriate restoration measures are taken.
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00655.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000245438200024
View details for PubMedID 17391198
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Bee community shifts with landscape context in a tropical countryside
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
2007; 17 (2): 418-430
Abstract
The ongoing scientific controversy over a putative "global pollination crisis" underscores the lack of understanding of the response of bees (the most important taxon of pollinators) to ongoing global land-use changes. We studied the effects of distance to forest, tree management, and floral resources on bee communities in pastures (the dominant land-use type) in southern Costa Rica. Over two years, we sampled bees and floral resources in 21 pastures at three distance classes from a large (approximately 230-ha) forest patch and of three common types: open pasture; pasture with remnant trees; and pasture with live fences. We found no consistent differences in bee diversity or abundance with respect to pasture management or floral resources. Bee community composition, however, was strikingly different at forest edges as compared to deforested countryside only a few hundred meters from forest. At forest edges, native social stingless bees (Apidae: Meliponini) comprised approximately 50% of the individuals sampled, while the alien honeybee Apis mellifera made up only approximately 5%. Away from forests, meliponines dropped to approximately 20% of sampled bees, whereas Apis increased to approximately 45%. Meliponine bees were also more speciose at forest edge sites than at a distance from forest, their abundance decreased with continuous distance to the nearest forest patch, and their species richness was correlated with the proportion of forest cover surrounding sample sites at scales from 200 to 1200 m. Meliponines and Apis together comprise the eusocial bee fauna of the study area and are unique in quickly recruiting foragers to high-quality resources. The diverse assemblage of native meliponine bees covers a wide range of body sizes and flower foraging behavior not found in Apis, and populations of many bee species (including Apis), are known to fluctuate considerably from year to year. Thus, the forest-related changes in eusocial bee communities we found may have important implications for: (1) sustaining a diverse bee fauna in tropical countryside; (2) ensuring the effective pollination of a diverse native plant community; and (3) the efficiency and stability of agricultural pollination, particularly for short-time-scale, mass-flowering crops such as coffee.
View details for Web of Science ID 000245744200011
View details for PubMedID 17489249
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Evaluating the potential for conservation development: Biophysical, economic, and institutional perspectives
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2007; 21 (1): 69-78
Abstract
The widespread conversion of rural land to low-density residential development poses an immediate threat to biodiversity and to the provision of ecosystem services. Given that development will continue and environmental stakes are high, analyzing alternative growth strategies is critical. Conservation development is one such strategy that has the potential to benefit ecosystems and diverse stakeholders including developers, homebuyers, governments, and society as a whole. Conservation development clusters homes on one part of a property to manage the most ecologically important land for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. We draw on lessons learned from landscape ecology, open-space development, and regional planning to weigh the biophysical, economic, and institutional evidence for and against conservation development. Conservation development offers many potential environmental and economic advantages: relatively high home values and appreciation rates, lower development costs, and social and ecological benefits to society including landscape connectivity, protection and active stewardship of important ecological assets, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. But this approach also has shortcomings: it may require enlightened institutional regulations and regional planning (and/or ecologically aware developers), it is not always more profitable than conventional development and thus may require subsidies or incentives, and additional research is required to fully understand its benefits and drawbacks. With more information on the effects of clustering, the development of flexible zoning laws, and effective regional planning, conservation development could be a viable strategy for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services in changing landscapes.
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00572.x
View details for Web of Science ID 000244148800015
View details for PubMedID 17298512
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Range occupancy and endangerment: A test with a butterfly community
AMERICAN MIDLAND NATURALIST
2007; 157 (1): 106-120
View details for Web of Science ID 000243956000009
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The nature and value of ecosystem services: An overview highlighting hydrologic services
ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES
2007; 32: 67-98
View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev.energy.32.031306.102758
View details for Web of Science ID 000251280300004
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Modeling biodiversity dynamics in countryside landscapes
ECOLOGY
2006; 87 (8): 1877-1885
Abstract
The future of biodiversity hinges to a great extent on the conservation value of countryside, the growing fraction of Earth's surface heavily influenced by human activities. How many species, and which species, can persist in such landscapes (and analogous seascapes) are open questions. Here we explore two complementary theoretical frameworks to address these questions: species-area relationships and demographic models. We use the terrestrial mammal fauna of Central America to illustrate the application of both frameworks. We begin by proposing a multi-habitat species-area relationship, the countryside species-area relationship, to forecast species extinction rates. To apply it, we classify the mammal fauna by affinity to native and human-dominated habitats. We show how considering the conservation value of countryside habitats changes estimates derived from the classic species-area approach We also examine how the z value of the species-area relationship affects extinction estimates. Next, we present a framework for assessing the relative vulnerability of species to extinction in the countryside, based on the Skellam model of population dynamics. This model predicts the minimum area of contiguous native habitat required for persistence of a species, which we use as an indicator of vulnerability to habitat change. To apply the model, we use our habitat affinity classification of mammals and we estimate life-history parameters by species and habitat type. The resulting ranking of vulnerabilities is significantly correlated with the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List assessment.
View details for Web of Science ID 000239833400002
View details for PubMedID 16937624
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Business strategies for conservation on private lands: Koa forestry as a case study
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2006; 103 (26): 10140-10145
Abstract
Innovative financial instruments are being created to reward conservation on private, working lands. Major design challenges remain, however, to make investments in biodiversity and ecosystem services economically attractive and commonplace. From a business perspective, three key financial barriers for advancing conservation land uses must frequently be addressed: high up-front costs, long time periods with no revenue, and high project risk due to long time horizons and uncertainty. We explored ways of overcoming these barriers on grazing lands in Hawaii by realizing a suite of timber and conservation revenue streams associated with their (partial) reforestation. We calculated the financial implications of alternative strategies, focusing on Acacia koa ("koa") forestry because of its high conservation and economic potential. Koa's timber value alone creates a viable investment (mean net present value = $453/acre), but its long time horizon and poor initial cash flow pose formidable challenges for landowners. At present, subsidy payments from a government conservation program targeting benefits for biodiversity, water quality, and soil erosion have the greatest potential to move landowners beyond the tipping point in favor of investments in koa forestry, particularly when combined with future timber harvest (mean net present value = $1,661/acre). Creating financial mechanisms to capture diverse ecosystem service values through time will broaden opportunities for conservation land uses. Governments, nongovernmental organizations, and private investors have roles to play in catalyzing this transition by developing new revenue streams that can reach a broad spectrum of landowners.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0600391103
View details for Web of Science ID 000238872900070
View details for PubMedID 16782816
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC1502519
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The diversity and conservation of plant reproductive and dispersal functional traits in human-dominated tropical landscapes
JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY
2006; 94 (3): 522-536
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2006.01108x
View details for Web of Science ID 000236717700002
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Land market feedbacks can undermine biodiversity conservation
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2006; 103 (14): 5403-5408
Abstract
The full or partial purchase of land has become a cornerstone of efforts to conserve biodiversity in countries with strong private property rights. Methods used to target areas for acquisition typically ignore land market dynamics. We show how conservation purchases affect land prices and generate feedbacks that can undermine conservation goals, either by displacing development toward biologically valuable areas or by accelerating its pace. The impact of these market feedbacks on the effectiveness of conservation depends on the ecological value of land outside nature reserves. Traditional, noneconomic approaches to site prioritization should perform adequately in places where land outside reserves supports little biodiversity. However, these approaches will perform poorly in locations where the countryside surrounding reserves is important for species' persistence. Conservation investments can sometimes even be counterproductive, condemning more species than they save. Conservation is most likely to be compromised in the absence of accurate information on species distributions, which provides a strong argument for improving inventories of biodiversity. Accounting for land market dynamics in conservation planning is crucial for making smart investment decisions.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0505278103
View details for Web of Science ID 000236636400031
View details for PubMedID 16554375
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC1459367
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Diversity, natural history and conservation of mammals from San Vito de Coto Brus, Costa Rica.
REVISTA DE BIOLOGIA TROPICAL
2006; 54 (1): 219-240
Abstract
Although Costa Rica has been biologically well studied, few areas have complete mammal inventories, which are essential for ecological studies and conservation. The San Vito region is considered among the most important for scientific research in the country because of the presence of the Wilson Botanical Garden and Las Cruces. However, the knowledge of its mammalian fauna is incomplete. We extensively studied the mammals of San Vito, compiled a checklist, and evaluated its composition, relative abundance, habitat distribution, and conservation status. We recorded 105 species, representing 85 genera, 29 families, and 10 orders. Non-volant mammals represented 62 species, 59 genera, 23 families, and 9 orders. Bats belonged to 6 families, 26 genera and 43 species. The extensive deforestation and hunting have caused the extinction of seven species, but the region still supports, surprisingly, a relatively high number of species, most of which are rare. Few species are common and abundant. Species richness was higher in forest, and forest fragments; fewer species were found in coffee plantations, induced grasslands, and secondary vegetation. Around 21% (13 species) are included in the IUCN red book. Three species are considered endangered (Saimiri oerstedii, Tapirus bairdii, and Sylvilagus dicei), and two threatened (Myrmecophaga trydactila and Caluromys derbianus), of which two (T. bairdii and M. trydactila) are locally extinct. The other species in IUCN are either of low risk (i.e. Chironectes minimus) or data deficient (Lontra longicaudis). Additionally, 24 species (39%) are included in CITES.
View details for Web of Science ID 000243514100022
View details for PubMedID 18457190
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Species and functional diversity of native and human-dominated plant communities
ECOLOGY
2005; 86 (9): 2365-2372
View details for Web of Science ID 000231373600011
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Global consequences of land use
SCIENCE
2005; 309 (5734): 570-574
Abstract
Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and services in the long term.
View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1111772
View details for Web of Science ID 000230735200036
View details for PubMedID 16040698
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Ecosystem services of tropical dry forests: Insights from long-term ecological and social research on the Pacific Coast of Mexico
ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY
2005; 10 (1)
View details for Web of Science ID 000230237900031
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Countryside biogeography of neotropical herbaceous and shrubby plants
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
2005; 15 (2): 423-439
View details for Web of Science ID 000228059000003
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Ecosystem consequences of bird declines
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2004; 101 (52): 18042-18047
Abstract
We present a general framework for characterizing the ecological and societal consequences of biodiversity loss and applying it to the global avifauna. To investigate the potential ecological consequences of avian declines, we developed comprehensive databases of the status and functional roles of birds and a stochastic model for forecasting change. Overall, 21% of bird species are currently extinction-prone and 6.5% are functionally extinct, contributing negligibly to ecosystem processes. We show that a quarter or more of frugivorous and omnivorous species and one-third or more of herbivorous, piscivorous, and scavenger species are extinction-prone. Furthermore, our projections indicate that by 2100, 6-14% of all bird species will be extinct, and 7-25% (28-56% on oceanic islands) will be functionally extinct. Important ecosystem processes, particularly decomposition, pollination, and seed dispersal, will likely decline as a result.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0408049101
View details for Web of Science ID 000226102700030
View details for PubMedID 15601765
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC539768
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Economic value of tropical forest to coffee production
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2004; 101 (34): 12579-12582
Abstract
Can economic forces be harnessed for biodiversity conservation? The answer hinges on characterizing the value of nature, a tricky business from biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical perspectives. Although the societal benefits of native ecosystems are clearly immense, they remain largely unquantified for all but a few services. Here, we estimate the value of tropical forest in supplying pollination services to agriculture. We focus on coffee because it is one of the world's most valuable export commodities and is grown in many of the world's most biodiverse regions. Using pollination experiments along replicated distance gradients, we found that forest-based pollinators increased coffee yields by 20% within approximately 1 km of forest. Pollination also improved coffee quality near forest by reducing the frequency of "peaberries" (i.e., small misshapen seeds) by 27%. During 2000-2003, pollination services from two forest fragments (46 and 111 hectares) translated into approximately 60,000 USD per year for one Costa Rican farm. This value is commensurate with expected revenues from competing land uses and far exceeds current conservation incentive payments. Conservation investments in human-dominated landscapes can therefore yield double benefits: for biodiversity and agriculture.
View details for Web of Science ID 000223596200034
View details for PubMedID 15306689
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC515099
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Are we consuming too much?
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
2004; 18 (3): 147-172
View details for Web of Science ID 000224500600008
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Genetic diversity and interdependent crop choices in agriculture
Workshop on Economics and Biodiversity
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. 2004: 175–84
View details for DOI 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2003.11.006
View details for Web of Science ID 000221071400006
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A framework for assessing the relative vulnerability of species to land-use change
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
2004; 14 (3): 730-742
View details for Web of Science ID 000222174000009
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Alleviating spatial conflict between people and biodiversity
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2004; 101 (1): 182-186
Abstract
Human settlements are expanding in species-rich regions and pose a serious threat to biodiversity conservation. We quantify the degree to which this threat manifests itself in two contrasting continents, Australia and North America, and suggest how it can be substantially alleviated. Human population density has a strong positive correlation with species richness in Australia for birds, mammals, amphibians, and butterflies (but not reptiles) and in North America for all five taxa. Nevertheless, conservation investments could secure locations that harbor almost all species while greatly reducing overlap with densely populated regions. We compared two conservation-planning scenarios that each aimed to represent all species at least once in a minimum set of sampling sites. The first scenario assigned equal cost to each site (ignoring differences in human population density); the second assigned a cost proportional to the site's human population density. Under the equal-cost scenario, 13-40% of selected sites occurred where population density values were highest (in the top decile). However, this overlap was reduced to as low as 0%, and in almost all cases to <10%, under the population-cost scenario, when sites of high population density were avoided where possible. Moreover, this reduction of overlap was achieved with only small increases in the total amount of area requiring protection. As densely populated regions continue to expand rapidly and drive up land values, the strategic conservation investments of the kind highlighted in our analysis are best made now.
View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.2237148100
View details for Web of Science ID 000187937200035
View details for PubMedID 14681554
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC314159
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Countryside biogeography of neotropical mammals: Conservation opportunities in agricultural landscapes of Costa Rica
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2003; 17 (6): 1814-1826
View details for Web of Science ID 000186869700039
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Population diversity and ecosystem services
TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
2003; 18 (7): 331–36
View details for DOI 10.1016/S0169-5347(03)00100-9
View details for Web of Science ID 000184123500006
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Countryside biogeography of tropical butterflies
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2003; 17 (1): 168-177
View details for Web of Science ID 000180846200021
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Tropical countryside bird assemblages: Richness, composition, and foraging differ by landscape context
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
2003; 13 (1): 235-247
View details for Web of Science ID 000181663700017
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Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity
NATURE
2003; 421 (6922): 530-533
Abstract
Human population size and growth rate are often considered important drivers of biodiversity loss, whereas household dynamics are usually neglected. Aggregate demographic statistics may mask substantial changes in the size and number of households, and their effects on biodiversity. Household dynamics influence per capita consumption and thus biodiversity through, for example, consumption of wood for fuel, habitat alteration for home building and associated activities, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we report that growth in household numbers globally, and particularly in countries with biodiversity hotspots (areas rich in endemic species and threatened by human activities), was more rapid than aggregate population growth between 1985 and 2000. Even when population size declined, the number of households increased substantially. Had the average household size (that is, the number of occupants) remained static, there would have been 155 million fewer households in hotspot countries in 2000. Reduction in average household size alone will add a projected 233 million additional households to hotspot countries during the period 2000-15. Rapid increase in household numbers, often manifested as urban sprawl, and resultant higher per capita resource consumption in smaller households pose serious challenges to biodiversity conservation.
View details for DOI 10.1038/nature01359
View details for Web of Science ID 000180670600044
View details for PubMedID 12540852
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Integrity and isolation of Costa Rica's national parks and biological reserves: examining the dynamics of land-cover change
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
2003; 109 (1): 123-135
View details for Web of Science ID 000179138400013
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Distribution of ground-dwelling arthropods in tropical countryside habitats
JOURNAL OF INSECT CONSERVATION
2002; 6 (2): 83-91
View details for Web of Science ID 000208370500003
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Does butterfly diversity predict moth diversity? Testing a popular indicator taxon at local scales
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
2002; 103 (3): 361-370
View details for Web of Science ID 000173262300011
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Disappearance of insectivorous birds from tropical forest fragments
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2002; 99 (1): 263-267
Abstract
Determining the impact of forest disturbance and fragmentation on tropical biotas is a central goal of conservation biology. Among tropical forest birds, understory insectivores are particularly sensitive to habitat disturbance and fragmentation, despite their relatively small sizes and freedom from hunting pressure. Why these birds are especially vulnerable to fragmentation is not known. Our data indicate that the best determinant of the persistence of understory insectivorous birds in small fragments is the ability to disperse through deforested countryside habitats. This finding contradicts our initial hypothesis that the decline of insectivorous birds in forest fragments is caused by impoverished invertebrate prey base in fragments. Although we observed significantly fewer insectivorous birds in smaller fragments, extensive sampling of invertebrate communities (106,082 individuals) and avian diets (of 735 birds) revealed no important differences between large and small fragments. Neither habitat specificity nor drier fragment microclimates seemed critical. Bird species that were less affected by forest fragmentation were, in general, those that used the deforested countryside more, and we suggest that the key to their conservation will be found there.
View details for Web of Science ID 000173233300049
View details for PubMedID 11782549
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Conservation of tropical forest birds in countryside habitats
ECOLOGY LETTERS
2002; 5 (1): 121-129
View details for Web of Science ID 000175032800016
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Ecological forecasts
NATURE
2001; 411 (6835): 245-245
View details for Web of Science ID 000168710000024
View details for PubMedID 11357107
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Countryside biogeography of moths in a fragmented landscape: Biodiversity in native and agricultural habitats
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2001; 15 (2): 378-388
View details for Web of Science ID 000168008400014
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Conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services
SCIENCE
2001; 291 (5511): 2047-2047
View details for Web of Science ID 000167563800001
View details for PubMedID 11256386
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Countryside biogeography: Use of human-dominated habitats by the avifauna of southern Costa Rica
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
2001; 11 (1): 1-13
View details for Web of Science ID 000166749100001
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Conservation of Insect Diversity: a Habitat Approach.
Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
2000; 14 (6): 1788-1797
Abstract
Neither time nor resources exist to design conservation plans for every species, particularly for little-studied, noncharismatic, but ecologically important taxa that make up most of biodiversity. To explore the feasibility of basing conservation action on community-level biogeography, we sampled a montane insect community. We addressed three issues: (1) the appropriate scale for sampling insect communities; (2) the association of habitat specialization-perhaps a measure of extinction vulnerability-with other ecological or physical traits; and (3) the correlation of diversity across major insect groups. Using malaise traps in Gunnison County, Colorado, we captured 8847 Diptera (identified to family and morphospecies), 1822 Hymenoptera (identified to morphospecies), and 2107 other insects (identified to order). We sampled in three habitat types-meadow, aspen, and conifer-defined on the basis of the dominant vegetation at the scale of hundreds of meters. Dipteran communities were clearly differentiated by habitat type rather than geographic proximity. This result also holds true for hymenopteran communities. Body size and feeding habits were associated with habitat specialization at the family level. In particular, habitat generalists at the family level-taxa perhaps more likely to survive anthropogenic habitat alteration-tended to be trophic generalists. Dipteran species richness was marginally correlated with hymenopteran species richness and was significantly correlated with the total number of insect orders sampled by site. Because these correlations result from differences in richness among habitat types, insect taxa may be reasonable surrogates for one another when sampling is done across habitat types. In sum, community-wide studies appear to offer a practical way to gather information about the diversity and distribution of little-known taxa.
View details for DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2000.99187.x
View details for PubMedID 35701940
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Conservation of insect diversity: a habitat approach
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
2000; 14 (6): 1788-1797
View details for Web of Science ID 000166035800027
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Ecology - The value of nature and the nature of value
SCIENCE
2000; 289 (5478): 395-396
Abstract
Ecosystems are capital assets: When properly managed, they yield a flow of vital goods and services. Relative to other forms of capital, however, ecosystems are poorly understood, scarcely monitored, and--in many important cases--undergoing rapid degradation. The process of economic valuation could greatly improve stewardship. This potential is now being realized with innovative financial instruments and institutional arrangements.
View details for Web of Science ID 000088305500022
View details for PubMedID 10939949
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Economic incentives for rain forest conservation across scales
SCIENCE
2000; 288 (5472): 1828-1832
Abstract
Globally, tropical deforestation releases 20 to 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Conserving forests could reduce emissions, but the cost-effectiveness of this mechanism for mitigation depends on the associated opportunity costs. We estimated these costs from local, national, and global perspectives using a case study from Madagascar. Conservation generated significant benefits over logging and agriculture locally and globally. Nationally, however, financial benefits from industrial logging were larger than conservation benefits. Such differing economic signals across scales may exacerbate tropical deforestation. The Kyoto Protocol could potentially overcome this obstacle to conservation by creating markets for protection of tropical forests to mitigate climate change.
View details for Web of Science ID 000087503800051
View details for PubMedID 10846165
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Managing ecosystem resources
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
2000; 34 (8): 1401-1406
View details for Web of Science ID 000086456100005
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Seeking the great transition
NATURE
2000; 403 (6767): 243-245
View details for Web of Science ID 000084899700022
View details for PubMedID 10659827
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Knowledge and the environment
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
1999; 30 (2): 267-284
View details for Web of Science ID 000082737300007
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Knowledge of and attitudes toward population growth and the environment: university students in Costa Rica and the United States
ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION
1999; 26 (1): 66-74
View details for Web of Science ID 000080053100009
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Globalization and the sustainability of human health - An ecological perspective
BIOSCIENCE
1999; 49 (3): 205-210
View details for Web of Science ID 000078758100007
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Use of fruit bait traps for monitoring of butterflies (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae)
REVISTA DE BIOLOGIA TROPICAL
1998; 46 (3): 697-704
View details for Web of Science ID 000079063000025
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Food production, population growth, and the environment.
Science
1998; 281 (5381): 1291-1292
View details for PubMedID 9735046
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Population diversity: Its extent and extinction
SCIENCE
1997; 278 (5338): 689-692
Abstract
Genetically distinct populations are an important component of biodiversity. This work estimates the number of populations per area of a sample of species from literature on population differentiation and the average range area of a species from a sample of distribution maps. This yields an estimate of about 220 populations per species, or 1.1 to 6.6 billion populations globally. Assuming that population extinction is a linear function of habitat loss, approximately 1800 populations per hour (16 million annually) are being destroyed in tropical forests alone.
View details for Web of Science ID A1997YC32300055
View details for PubMedID 9381179
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Socioeconomic equity, sustainability, and Earth's carrying capacity
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
1996; 6 (4): 991-1001
View details for Web of Science ID A1996VR85600003
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Nocturnality and species survival
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
1996; 93 (21): 11709-11712
Abstract
Surveys of butterfly and moth diversity in tropical forest fragments suggest that nocturnality confers a dispersal, and possibly a survival, advantage. The butterfly faunas of smaller fragments were depauperate; in contrast, the species richness of nocturnal moths was similar in all fragments and even in pasture. The lack of correlation between butterfly and moth species richness among fragments (r2 = 0.005) is best explained by movements of moths at night when ambient conditions in forest and pasture are most similar; butterflies face substantial daytime temperature, humidity, and solar radiation barriers. This interpretation is supported by information on birds, beetles, and bats.
View details for Web of Science ID A1996VM68100075
View details for PubMedID 8876201
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC38123
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Challenges in the quest for keystones
BIOSCIENCE
1996; 46 (8): 609-620
View details for Web of Science ID A1996VD35100012
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Human appropriation of renewable fresh water
SCIENCE
1996; 271 (5250): 785-788
View details for Web of Science ID A1996TU69400039
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Managing earth's life support systems: The came, the players, and getting everyone to play
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
1996; 6 (1): 19-21
View details for Web of Science ID A1996TU56700006
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Global change and human susceptibility to disease
ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
1996; 21: 125-144
View details for Web of Science ID A1996VW79300007
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Knowledge and perceptions in Costa Rica regarding environment, population, and biodiversity issues
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
1995; 9 (6): 1548-1558
View details for Web of Science ID A1995TL67200022
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RESTORING VALUE TO THE WORLDS DEGRADED LANDS
SCIENCE
1995; 269 (5222): 350-354
Abstract
Roughly 43 percent of Earth's terrestrial vegetated surface has diminished capacity to supply benefits to humanity because of recent, direct impacts of land use. This represents an approximately 10 percent reduction in potential direct instrumental value (PDIV), defined as the potential to yield direct benefits such as agricultural, forestry, industrial, and medicinal products. If present trends continue, the global loss of PDIV could reach approximately 20 percent by 2020. From a biophysical perspective, recovery of approximately 5 percent of PDIV is feasible over the next 25 years. Capitalizing on natural recovery mechanisms is urgently needed to prevent further irreversible degradation and to retain the multiple values of productive land.
View details for Web of Science ID A1995RK42700033
View details for PubMedID 17841252
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POPULATION AND IMMIGRATION POLICY IN THE UNITED-STATES - RESPONSE
POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
1995; 16 (6): 521-526
View details for Web of Science ID A1995RK77700004
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PRESERVATION OF BIODIVERSITY IN SMALL RAIN-FOREST PATCHES - RAPID EVALUATIONS USING BUTTERFLY TRAPPING
BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION
1995; 4 (1): 35-55
View details for Web of Science ID A1995QL63400003
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INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL-STATUS ON INDIVIDUAL FORAGING AND COMMUNITY STRUCTURE IN A BIRD GUILD
OECOLOGIA
1994; 100 (1-2): 153-165
Abstract
We investigated the influence of social interactions on individual foraging behavior and community structure of frugivorous birds in southern Costa Rica. Detailed observations of large, heterospecific feeding assemblages at fruiting trees revealed the existence of an interspecific dominance hierarchy, largely consistent with body and bill size. Social status influenced access to food in several ways. First, subordinate species were interrupted more and tended to have shorter foraging bouts than dominant species (n > 1.000 abouts). Second, analysis of over 7,000 videotaped head movements showed that subordinate species spent a smaller fraction of their foraging bouts actually feeding (as opposed to looking about) than did dominants. Third, when many birds were in a tree simultaneously, the foraging bouts of subordinate species were shortened; this effect was less pronounced or absent for species higher in the dominance hierarchy. Fourth, subordinate species foraged less frequently in mixed-species assemblages than did dominant species. Finally, subordinate species fed disproportionately more in the late afternoon at fruiting trees. The influence of social status appeared to manifest itself at the community level. The species composition of foraging assemblages was compared at isolated fruiting trees situated in an agricultural landscape near to (< 0.5 km) and far from (> 6 km) a large tract of primary forest. Whereas the full complement of avian frugivores foraged at the near trees, visitors to the far trees were predominantly of high social status. We discuss reasons why high social status and associated traits might confer an advantage in exploiting human-dominated habitat.
View details for Web of Science ID A1994PR64500019
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Influence of social status on individual foraging and community structure in a bird guild.
Oecologia
1994; 100 (1-2): 153-165
Abstract
We investigated the influence of social interactions on individual foraging behavior and community structure of frugivorous birds in southern Costa Rica. Detailed observations of large, heterospecific feeding assemblages at fruiting trees revealed the existence of an interspecific dominance hierarchy, largely consistent with body and bill size. Social status influenced access to food in several ways. First, subordinate species were interrupted more and tended to have shorter foraging bouts than dominant species (n > 1.000 abouts). Second, analysis of over 7,000 videotaped head movements showed that subordinate species spent a smaller fraction of their foraging bouts actually feeding (as opposed to looking about) than did dominants. Third, when many birds were in a tree simultaneously, the foraging bouts of subordinate species were shortened; this effect was less pronounced or absent for species higher in the dominance hierarchy. Fourth, subordinate species foraged less frequently in mixed-species assemblages than did dominant species. Finally, subordinate species fed disproportionately more in the late afternoon at fruiting trees. The influence of social status appeared to manifest itself at the community level. The species composition of foraging assemblages was compared at isolated fruiting trees situated in an agricultural landscape near to (< 0.5 km) and far from (> 6 km) a large tract of primary forest. Whereas the full complement of avian frugivores foraged at the near trees, visitors to the far trees were predominantly of high social status. We discuss reasons why high social status and associated traits might confer an advantage in exploiting human-dominated habitat.
View details for DOI 10.1007/BF00317142
View details for PubMedID 28307039
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OPTIMUM HUMAN-POPULATION SIZE
POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
1994; 15 (6): 469-475
View details for Web of Science ID A1994NX24600003
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HEARTWOOD DECAY AND VERTICAL-DISTRIBUTION OF RED-NAPED SAPSUCKER NEST CAVITIES
WILSON BULLETIN
1993; 105 (4): 674–79
View details for Web of Science ID A1993MP63200012
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SCIENCE AND THE MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL-RESOURCES
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
1993; 3 (4): 558-560
View details for Web of Science ID A1993MF07000006
View details for PubMedID 27759308
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POPULATION EXTINCTION AND SAVING BIODIVERSITY
AMBIO
1993; 22 (2-3): 64-68
View details for Web of Science ID A1993LF51700003
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FOOD SECURITY, POPULATION, AND ENVIRONMENT
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW
1993; 19 (1): 1-32
View details for Web of Science ID A1993LF02300001
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DOUBLE KEYSTONE BIRD IN A KEYSTONE SPECIES COMPLEX
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
1993; 90 (2): 592-594
Abstract
Species in a Colorado subalpine ecosystem show subtle interdependences. Red-naped sapsuckers play two distinct keystone roles. They excavate nest cavities in fungus-infected aspens that are required as nest sites by two species of swallows, and they drill sap wells into willows that provide abundant nourishment for themselves, hummingbirds, orange-crowned warblers, chipmunks, and an array of other sap robbers. The swallows thus depend on, and the sap robbers benefit from, a keystone species complex comprised of sapsuckers, willows, aspens, and a heartwood fungus. Disappearance of any element of the complex could cause an unanticipated unraveling of the community.
View details for Web of Science ID A1993KH51600048
View details for PubMedID 11607351
View details for PubMedCentralID PMC45709
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THE FERTILITY PLATEAU IN COSTA-RICA - A REVIEW OF CAUSES AND REMEDIES
ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION
1993; 20 (4): 317-323
View details for Web of Science ID A1993NG62200008
View details for PubMedID 12290839
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POPULATION, SUSTAINABILITY, AND EARTHS CARRYING-CAPACITY
BIOSCIENCE
1992; 42 (10): 761-771
View details for Web of Science ID A1992JU82900015
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AN EXPLORATORY MODEL OF THE IMPACT OF RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WORLD FOOD SITUATION
SIMULATION
1992; 59 (5): 348-352
View details for Web of Science ID A1992KD18400014
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Determinants of spatial distribution in a population of the subalpine butterfly Oeneis chryxus.
Oecologia
1991; 88 (4): 587-596
Abstract
This paper describes temporally varying determinants of the spatial distribution of adults in an insect population and the relationship between that distribution and the mating system. Male Oeneis chryxus butterflies were distributed nonrandomly throughout a sloping Colorado meadow divided horizontally by a dirt road into an upper and lower slope. Over an eight-year period of intensive study, the proportion of males located on the road, the upper slope, and the lower slope varied as a function of population size and sex ratio. In each year, more than half of the male population aggregated on sections of the road in a distinct and recurring pattern that was not correlated with the distribution of any food resource or thermal regime. Females were usually extremely scarce and not distributed in any pattern apparent from the few observations of them. Areas densely occupied by males were associated with visual landmarks. We hypothesize that the male distribution is determined by a pattern of movement of receptive females toward these landmarks. The road offers a thermally favorable environment with an unobstructed view in which to await the passage of scarce females. The mating system in this population has several lek-like features and supports the prediction that landmark mating is a favored strategy under conditions of female scarcity and wide dispersal of resources.
View details for DOI 10.1007/BF00317724
View details for PubMedID 28312631
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DETERMINANTS OF SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION IN A POPULATION OF THE SUB-ALPINE BUTTERFLY OENEIS-CHRYXUS
OECOLOGIA
1991; 88 (4): 587-596
Abstract
This paper describes temporally varying determinants of the spatial distribution of adults in an insect population and the relationship between that distribution and the mating system. Male Oeneis chryxus butterflies were distributed nonrandomly throughout a sloping Colorado meadow divided horizontally by a dirt road into an upper and lower slope. Over an eight-year period of intensive study, the proportion of males located on the road, the upper slope, and the lower slope varied as a function of population size and sex ratio. In each year, more than half of the male population aggregated on sections of the road in a distinct and recurring pattern that was not correlated with the distribution of any food resource or thermal regime. Females were usually extremely scarce and not distributed in any pattern apparent from the few observations of them. Areas densely occupied by males were associated with visual landmarks. We hypothesize that the male distribution is determined by a pattern of movement of receptive females toward these landmarks. The road offers a thermally favorable environment with an unobstructed view in which to await the passage of scarce females. The mating system in this population has several lek-like features and supports the prediction that landmark mating is a favored strategy under conditions of female scarcity and wide dispersal of resources.
View details for Web of Science ID A1991GU19000019
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AN EXPLORATORY MODEL OF THE IMPACT OF RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WORLD FOOD SITUATION
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
1990; 241 (1302): 232-244
Abstract
A simple, globally aggregated, stochastic-simulation model was constructed to examine the effects of rapid climatic change on agriculture and the human population. The model calculates population size and the production, consumption and storage of grain under different climate scenarios over a 20-year projection time. In most scenarios, either an optimistic baseline annual increase of agricultural output of 1.7% or a more pessimistic appraisal of 0.9% was used. The rate of natural increase of the human population exclusive of excess hunger-related deaths was set as 1.7% per year and climatic changes with both negative and positive impacts on agriculture were assessed. Analysis of the model suggests that the number of hunger-related deaths could double (with reference to an estimated 200 million deaths in the past two decades) if grain production keeps pace with population growth but climatic conditions are unfavourable. If the rate of increase in grain production is about half that of population growth, the number of hunger-related deaths could increase about fivefold (over past levels); the impact of climatic change is relatively small under this imbalance. Even favourable climatic changes that enhance agricultural production may not prevent a fourfold increase in deaths (over past levels) under scenarios where population growth outpaces production by about 0.8% per annum. These results may foreshadow a fundamental change where, for the first time, absolute global food deficits compound inequities in food production and distribution in causing famine. The model also highlights the effectiveness of reducing population growth rates as a strategy for minimizing the impact of global climate change and maintaining food supplies for everyone.
View details for Web of Science ID A1990ED14900012
View details for PubMedID 1979448
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INTEGRATED PEST-MANAGEMENT IN LATIN-AMERICA
ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION
1990; 17 (4): 341-350
View details for Web of Science ID A1990FH15500009