Bio

Scott D. Sagan is Co-Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, and the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education. He also serves as Chairman of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Committee on International Security Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon.

Sagan is the author of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993); and, with co-author Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (W.W. Norton, 2012). He is the co-editor of Learning from a Disaster: Improving Nuclear Safety and Security after Fukushima (Stanford University Press, 2016) with Edward D. Blandford; co-editor of Insider Threats (Cornell University Press, 2017) with Matthew Bunn; and co-editor of The Fragile Balance of Terror (Cornell University Press, 2022) with Vipin Narang. Sagan was also the guest editor of a two-volume special issue of Daedalus: Ethics, Technology, and War (Fall 2016) and The Changing Rules of War (Winter 2017).

Recent publications include "Just and Unjust Nuclear Deterrence," in Ethics and International Affairs; “Inconstant Care: Public Attitudes towards Force Protection and Civilian Casualties in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel,” with Janina Dill and Benjamin A. Valentino in The Journal of Conflict Resolution (August 2022); How to Keep the Ukraine Conflict From Going Nuclear,” in the Wall Street Journal (October 14, 2022); “From Kyoto to Baghdad to Tehran: Leadership, Law, and the Protection of Cultural Property,” in the Getty Foundation volume Cultural Heritage and Mass Atrocities; “The Rule of Law and the Role of Strategy in U.S. Nuclear Doctrine” with Allen S. Weiner in International Security (Spring 2021); and “Does the Noncombatant Immunity Norm Have Stopping Power?” with Benjamin A. Valentino in International Security (Fall 2020).

In 2022 Sagan received the Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an award given for "exceptional service to the nongovernmental nuclear policy community." He received the 2018 Andrew Carnegie Fellowship from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. In 2017, he received the International Studies Association’s Susan Strange Award which recognizes the scholar whose “singular intellect, assertiveness, and insight most challenge conventional wisdom and intellectual and organizational complacency" in the international studies community. Sagan was also the recipient of the National Academy of Sciences William and Katherine Estes Award in 2015, for his work addressing the risks of nuclear weapons and the causes of nuclear proliferation. The award, which is granted triennially, recognizes “research in any field of cognitive or behavioral science that advances understanding of issues relating to the risk of nuclear war.” In 2013, Sagan received the International Studies Association's International Security Studies Section Distinguished Scholar Award. He has also won four teaching awards: Stanford’s 1998-99 Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching; Stanford's 1996 Hoagland Prize for Undergraduate Teaching; the International Studies Association’s 2008 Innovative Teaching Award; and the Monterey Institute for International Studies’ Nonproliferation Education Award in 2009.

Academic Appointments

Honors & Awards

  • Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2022)
  • Susan Strange Award, International Studies Association (2017)
  • William and Katherine Estes Award, National Academy of Sciences (2015)
  • Distinguished Scholar Award, International Studies Association’s International Security Studies Section (ISSS) (April 2013)
  • Outstanding Contribution to Nonproliferation Education Award, Monterey Institute for International Studies (December 2009)
  • Deborah Misty Gerner Innovative Teaching Award, International Studies Association (2008)
  • Honorary Doctor of Laws, Ohio Wesleyan University (May 2008)
  • Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Elected 2008)
  • Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching, Stanford University (1998-99)
  • Laurance and Naomi Hoagland Prize for Undergraduate Teaching, Stanford University (1996)

Boards, Advisory Committees, Professional Organizations

  • Project Chair, AAAS Committee on International Security Studies (2018 - Present)
  • Chair of the Steering Committee, AAAS Initiative on Ethics, Technology, and War (2014 - 2018)
  • Member, Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellowship Advisory Council (2012 - Present)
  • Member, Committee on Proliferation Risk Nuclear Fuel National Academy of Sciences (2011 - 2013)
  • Member, National Academy of Sciences Committee on Improving the Assessment of Proliferation Risk of Nuclear Fuel Cycles (2011 - 2013)
  • Board Member, Federation of American Scientists (2010 - 2015)
  • Expert Advisor, Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States (2008 - 2009)
  • Co-Chair (with Steven Miller), AAAS Initiative on the Global Nuclear Future (2007 - 2014)
  • Consultant, National Intelligence Council “Global Expertise Reserve” (2006 - 2009)
  • Member of Steering Committee, American Assembly (2006 - 2008)
  • Member, Visiting Committee,, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley (2006 - 2006)
  • Member, CAC Subcommittee on Analysis and Policy Formulation, Council on Foreign Relations (2003 - 2005)
  • Member, Visiting Committee, Department of Government, Havard University (2003 - 2003)
  • Member, Undergraduate Advisory Council, Stanford University (2000 - 2011)
  • Member, Distinguished Advisory Panel for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, Sandia National Laboratory (2000 - 2010)
  • Member, National Board of Directors of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security (LAWS) (1999 - 2005)
  • Member, Advisory Panel on Investment Re sponsibility, Stanford University (1999 - 2000)
  • University Fellow, Stanford University (1996 - 1998)
  • Member, Asia/Pacific Scholars Program Faculty Committee, Stanford University (1996 - 1997)
  • Member of Advisory Board, Nuclear Weapons History Project, National Security Archives, Washington DC (1995 - 2000)
  • Member of the Committee on Science and International Security, American Association for the Advancement of Science (1995 - 1996)
  • Member, 1995 Selection Committee for the MacA rthur Foundation's Research and Writing Grants on Peace and International Cooperation (1995 - 1995)
  • Member of Steering Committee, Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction Project, Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington DC (1994 - 1997)
  • Co-director, NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Improving Nuclear Weapons Safety and Security in the Post-Cold War Era" (1994 - 1994)
  • Member of Program Committee, Stanford in Washington (1992 - Present)
  • Consultant, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1989 - 1995)
  • Member, Advisory Group to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the Future of U.S.-Soviet Military Relations (1989 - 1990)
  • Consultant, Office of the Secretary of Defense (1987 - 1991)
  • Consultant, the RAND Corporation (1987 - 1991)

Program Affiliations

  • Program in International Relations
  • Science, Technology and Society

Professional Education

  • Ph.D., Harvard University, Political Science (1983)
  • B.A., Oberlin College, Government (1977)

Contact

  • Academic
    ssagan@stanford.edu
    University - Faculty Department: Political Science Position: Professor
    • 202E Encina Hall
    • Stanford,  California  94305-6165 
    (650) 724-5683 (fax)
    University - Faculty Department: FSI - CISAC Position: Senior Fellow (650) 724-5683 (fax)

Additional Info

  • Mail Code: 6165

Links

Current Research and Scholarly Interests

Just War doctrine and the development of norms concerning the use of force; public attitudes in the U.S., U.K., France, and Israel about the use of nuclear weapons and non-combatant casualties; organizations and management of insider threats; the management of hazardous technology; security of nuclear materials, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Projects

  • Public Opinion, Ethics, and Nuclear Weapons Use

    Location

    Stanford, CA

    Collaborators

    • Janina Dill, John G. Winant Associate Professor of U.S. Foreign Policy, University of Oxford
    • Benjamin Valentino, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College
  • Just War Doctrine in the Contemporary World

    In this project, Scott D. Sagan and Benjamin A. Valentino use experimental survey data to examine how the American public weighs key just war doctrine principles in decisions to support the use of force against military targets.

    Location

    Stanford, CA

  • The Insider Threat: Why Organizations Underestimate Internal Risks

    Scott D. Sagan and Matthew Bunn draw on episodes across organizations and industries to abstract lessons for nuclear security operators on protecting against insider threats.

    Location

    Stanford, CA

2024-25 Courses

Stanford Advisees

All Publications

  • Kettles of Hawks: Public Opinion on the Nuclear Taboo and Noncombatant Immunity in the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Israel SECURITY STUDIES Dill, J., Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2022

    View details for DOI 10.1080/09636412.2022.2038663

    View details for Web of Science ID 000762207800001

  • The Rule of Law and the Role of Strategy in US Nuclear Doctrine INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Sagan, S. D., Weiner, A. S. 2021; 45 (4): 126-+

    View details for DOI 10.1162/isec_a_00407

    View details for Web of Science ID 000663372500004

  • Why the atomic bombing of Hiroshima would be illegal today BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS McKinney, K. E., Sagan, S. D., Weiner, A. S. 2020; 76 (4): 157–65

    View details for DOI 10.1080/00963402.2020.1778344

    View details for Web of Science ID 000550535700001

  • Weighing Lives in War: How National Identity Influences American Public Opinion about Foreign Civilian and Compatriot Fatalities JOURNAL OF GLOBAL SECURITY STUDIES Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2020; 5 (1): 25–43

    View details for DOI 10.1093/jogss/ogz047

    View details for Web of Science ID 000562374600003

  • On Reciprocity, Revenge, and Replication: A Rejoinder to Walzer, McMahan, and Keohane ETHICS & INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2019; 33 (4): 473–79

    View details for DOI 10.1017/S089267941900042X

    View details for Web of Science ID 000506176400006

  • Just War and Unjust Soldiers: American Public Opinion on the Moral Equality of Combatants ETHICS & INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2019; 33 (4): 411–44

    View details for DOI 10.1017/S0892679419000431

    View details for Web of Science ID 000506176400002

  • What do Americans really think about conflict with nuclear North Korea? The answer is both reassuring and disturbing BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS Haworth, A. R., Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2019

    View details for DOI 10.1080/00963402.2019.1629576

    View details for Web of Science ID 000472900100001

  • Armed and Dangerous When Dictators Get the Bomb FOREIGN AFFAIRS Sagan, S. D. 2018; 97 (6): 35–43

    View details for Web of Science ID 000447482600005

  • Not Just a War Theory: American Public Opinion on Ethics in Combat INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2018; 62 (3): 548–61

    View details for DOI 10.1093/isq/sqy033

    View details for Web of Science ID 000452917700007

  • Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran: What Americans Really Think about Using Nuclear Weapons and Killing Noncombatants International Security Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2017
  • The Korean Missile Crisis: Why Deterrence is Still the Best Option Foreign Affairs Sagan, S. 2017
  • The Face of Battle without the Rules of War: Lessons from Red Horse & the Battle of the Little Bighorn Daedalus Sagan, S. D. 2017; 146 (1): 24-43
  • Insider Threats edited by Sagan, S. D., Bunn, M. 2017
  • The Nuclear Necessity Principle: Making US Targeting Policy Conform with Ethics & the Laws of War DAEDALUS Lewis, J. G., Sagan, S. D. 2016; 145 (4): 62-74

    View details for DOI 10.1162/DAED_a_00412

    View details for Web of Science ID 000384526300006

  • Learning from a Disaster: Improving Nuclear Safety and Security after Fukushima edited by Blandford, E. D., Sagan, S. D. Stanford University Press. 2016
  • Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW Press, D. G., Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2013; 107 (1): 188-206

    View details for DOI 10.1017/S0003055412000597

    View details for Web of Science ID 000315340600010

  • The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate Sagan , S. D., Waltz , K. W. W. Norton & Company. 2012
  • The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons Sagan, S. D. Princeton University Press. 1993
  • Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security Sagan, S. D. Princeton University Press. 1989
  • The Stopping Power of Norms: Saturation Bombing, Civilian Immunity, and US Attitudes toward the Laws of War INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A., Carpenter, C., Montgomery, A. H. 2020; 45 (2): 170–81

    View details for DOI 10.1162/isec_a_00393

    View details for Web of Science ID 000579419200005

  • The Changing Rules of War DAEDALUS Sagan, S. D. 2017; 146 (1): 6-10

    View details for DOI 10.1162/DAED_a_00418

    View details for Web of Science ID 000403207200001

  • The Face of Battle without the Rules of War: Lessons from Red Horse & the Battle of the Little Bighorn DAEDALUS Sagan, S. D. 2017; 146 (1): 25-43

    View details for DOI 10.1162/DAED_a_00420

    View details for Web of Science ID 000403207200003

  • The Korean Missile Crisis Why Deterrence Is Still the Best Option FOREIGN AFFAIRS Sagan, S. D. 2017; 96 (6): 72-+

    View details for Web of Science ID 000413062700009

  • Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran What Americans Really Think about Using Nuclear Weapons and Killing Noncombatants INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Sagan, S. D., Valentino, B. A. 2017; 42 (1): 41-79

    View details for DOI 10.1162/ISEC_a_00284

    View details for Web of Science ID 000407019700002

  • The Changing Rules of War Daedalus Sagan, S. D. 2017; 146 (1): 6-10
  • Ethics, Technology & War DAEDALUS Sagan, S. D. 2016; 145 (4): 6-11

    View details for DOI 10.1162/DAED_e_00407

    View details for Web of Science ID 000384526300001

  • The Future of the Nuclear Order Current History Sagan, S. D. 2014; 113 (759): 23-25
  • The Future of the Nuclear Order CURRENT HISTORY Sagan, S. D. 2014; 113 (759): 23-25

    View details for Web of Science ID 000342186800008

  • COMMAND AND CONTROL Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety (Book Review) AMERICAN SCHOLAR Book Review Authored by: Sagan, S. D. 2013; 82 (4): 111-113

    View details for Web of Science ID 000344213700037

  • Political Scientists and Historians in Search of the Bomb JOURNAL OF STRATEGIC STUDIES Sagan, S. D., Waltz, K. N. 2013; 36 (1): 143-151

    View details for DOI 10.1080/01402390.2013.770219

    View details for Web of Science ID 000316653900011

  • A call for global nuclear disarmament NATURE Sagan, S. D. 2012; 487 (7405): 30-32

    View details for Web of Science ID 000305982900016

    View details for PubMedID 22763534

  • Should the U.S. or International Community Ag gressively Pursue Nuclear Nonproliferation Policies? ‘Yes’ Argument Controversies in Globalizati on: Contending Approaches to International Relations , Second Edition, Sagan , S. D., Pauly, R. B. CQ Press . 2012
  • Introduction: Reviewing the Nuclear Posture Review The Nonproliferation Reivew Sagan , S. D., Vaynman , J. 2011; 18 (1)
  • Arms, Disarmament and Influence: the Internat ional Impact of the 2010 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review , The Nonproliferation Review Special Issue edited by Sagan , S. D., Vaynman , J. Routledge Tayl or & Francis Group. 2011
  • The International Security Implications of U.S. Domestic Nuclear Power Decisions Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future Sagan , S. D. 2011
  • Lessons Learned from the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review The Nonproliferation review Sagan , S. D., Vaynman , J. 2011; 18 (1)
  • The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation ANNUAL REVIEW OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, VOL 14 Sagan, S. D. 2011; 14: 225-244

    View details for DOI 10.1146/annurev-polisci-052209-131042

    View details for Web of Science ID 000292530200012

  • Alternative nuclear futures DAEDALUS Miller, S. E., Sagan, S. D. 2010; 139 (1): 126-137

    View details for Web of Science ID 000273703600011

  • Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in the 21st Century Sagan , S. D. MIT Press (International Security reader). 2010
  • Is Nuclear Zero the Best Option? (debate with Kenneth N. Waltz) The National Interest Sagan , S. D. 2010: 88-96
  • Nuclear Latency and Nuclear Proliferation Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century Sagan, S. D. Stanford University Press . 2010
  • On the Global Nuclear Future Vol. 2 , Daedalus Special Issue Miller, S. E. edited by Sagan , S. MIT Press. 2010
  • Nuclear power without nuclear proliferation? DAEDALUS Miller, S. E., Sagan, S. D. 2009; 138 (4): 7-18

    View details for Web of Science ID 000270802400001

  • Shared responsibilities for nuclear disarmament DAEDALUS Sagan, S. D. 2009; 138 (4): 157-168

    View details for Web of Science ID 000270802400015

  • The Perils of Predicting Proliferation JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Montgomery, A. H., Sagan, S. D. 2009; 53 (2): 302-328

    View details for DOI 10.1177/0022002708330581

    View details for Web of Science ID 000264254900008

  • The Case for No First Use: An Exchange SURVIVAL Halperin, M. H., Tertrais, B., Payne, K. B., Subrahmanyam, K., Sagan, S. D. 2009; 51 (5): 17-46

    View details for DOI 10.1080/00396330903309840

    View details for Web of Science ID 000274288800002

  • Should the U.S. or International Community Ag gressively Pursue Nuclear Nonproliferation Policies? ‘Yes’ Argument Controversies in Globalizati on: Contending Approaches to International Relations Sagan , S. D., Weddle , J. A. CQ Press. 2009: 152–163
  • On the Global Nuclear Future Vol. 1 , Daedalus Special Issue edited by Sagan , S. D., Miller , S. E. MIT Press . 2009
  • Introduction: Inside Nuclear S outh Asia and The Evolution of Pakistani and Indian Doctrine Inside Nuclear South Asia Sagan , S. D. Stanford University Press . 2009 : 1–24 and 219–254
  • Good Faith and Nuclear Disarmament Negotiations Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Sagan , S. D. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 2009 : 203–212
  • Inside Nuclear South Asia Sagan , S. D. Stanford University Press . 2009
  • Reply: Evidence, Logic, and Nuclear Doctrine Survival Sagan , S. D. 2009 : 36-46
  • The Case for No First Use SURVIVAL Sagan, S. D. 2009; 51 (3): 163-181

    View details for DOI 10.1080/00396330903011545

    View details for Web of Science ID 000266244800011

  • Nuclear Iran, A: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster Journal of International Affairs Sagan , S. D., Waltz , K. N. 2007; 60 (2)
  • How to keep the bomb from Iran FOREIGN AFFAIRS Sagan, S. D. 2006; 85 (5): 45-?

    View details for Web of Science ID 000239938300005

  • The problem of redundancy problem: Why more nuclear security forces may produce less nuclear security RISK ANALYSIS Sagan, S. D. 2004; 24 (4): 935-946

    View details for Web of Science ID 000224053900019

    View details for PubMedID 15357816

  • Learning from Normal Accidents ORGANIZATION & ENVIRONMENT Sagan, S. D. 2004; 17 (1): 15-19

    View details for DOI 10.1177/1086026603262029

    View details for Web of Science ID 000189030400003

  • Nuclear Dangers in South Asia Forum on Physics & Society Sagan , S. D. 2004
  • Realist Perspectives on Ethical Norms and Weapons of Mass Destruction Ethics and Weapons of Mass Destruction Sagan , S. D. Cambridge University Press. 2004: 15–31
  • The Madman nuclear alert - Secrecy, signaling, and safety in October 1969 Annual Meeting of the Society-for-Historians-of-American-Foreign-Relations SAGAN, S. D., Suri, J. M I T PRESS. 2003: 150–83

    View details for Web of Science ID 000183528800006

  • The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed Sagan , S. D., Waltz , K. N. W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.. 2003
  • The perils of proliferation in south Asia ASIAN SURVEY SAGAN, S. D. 2001; 41 (6): 1064-1086

    View details for Web of Science ID 000173982800010

  • Responding to chemical and biological threats - Reply INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SAGAN, S. D. 2001; 25 (4): 196-198

    View details for Web of Science ID 000167952700009

  • The commitment trap - Why the United States should not use nuclear threats to deter biological and chemical weapons attacks INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SAGAN, S. D. 2000; 24 (4): 85-115

    View details for Web of Science ID 000086009900003

  • Origins of Military Doctrines and Command and Control Systems; and Conclusions: Planning the Unthinkable, The Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Sagan, S. D. Cornell University Press . 2000: 16–45; 230–257
  • The causes of nuclear proliferation CURRENT HISTORY SAGAN, S. D. 1997; 96 (609): 151-156

    View details for Web of Science ID A1997WP27200002

  • Why do states build nuclear weapons? Three models in search of a bomb INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SAGAN, S. D. 1997; 21 (3): 54-86

    View details for Web of Science ID A1997WD88400002

  • The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Sagan , S. D., Waltz , K. W.W. Norton & Company. 1995
  • THE PERILS OF PROLIFERATION - ORGANIZATION THEORY, DETERRENCE THEORY, AND THE SPREAD OF NUCLEAR-WEAPONS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SAGAN, S. D. 1994; 18 (4): 66-107

    View details for Web of Science ID A1994NG12200003

  • Civil Military Relations and Nuclear Weapons Sagan, S. D. Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University. 1994
  • THE ORIGINS OF THE PACIFIC WAR JOURNAL OF INTERDISCIPLINARY HISTORY SAGAN, S. D. 1988; 18 (4): 893-922

    View details for Web of Science ID A1988M922500014

  • Living with Nuclear Weapons edited by Carnesale, A., Doty, P., Hoffman, S., Huntington, S. P., Nye, J. S., Sagan, S. D. Harvard University Press. 1983